This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea.

Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards.

To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:43] Strategic Significance of the Yellow Sea

[03:12] Expanding Chinese Control in the Region

[04:08] Chinese Maritime Installations 

[05:20] Are these installations found in other regions?

[06:00] Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea 

[08:20] Maritime Militia Activity in the Yellow Sea

[09:02] 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement

[10:34] Testing the Waters with South Korea

[12:09] Navigating South Korean Policy Dilemmas

[13:48] Rehabilitating China’s Imagine in Korea

[15:14] Environmental Issues in Disputed Waters

[17:18] Countering Chinese Activities in the Yellow Sea

[19:40] SeaLight Tracking and Deciphering Chinese Actions

As China’s military capabilities expand, US-China frictions intensify, and regional tensions increase, concern is on the rise that a potential crisis, either accidental or deliberate, could take place that could spiral out of control. 

If a crisis arises with China, leaders may want to de-escalate and prevent a wider conflict. To do so, they will need to understand how China thinks about crisis management and escalation.

The guest for this episode has dug into the writings of PLA strategists and authoritative PRC sources as well as Western scholarship to assess how China views military escalation and how the US and other countries can accurately predict and interpret PRC signal in crisis scenarios.

Lyle Morris is a Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. His recently published paper is titled “China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States.”

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:37] Methodology and Authoritative Chinese Sources

[04:17] PLA Theories and Concepts of Managing Escalation

[06:00] Controlling All Facets of Military Escalation

[10:28] Doctrine of Seizing the Initiative

[15:21] First Use of Force and a Reluctance to Use Force

[19:37] American and Chinese Considerations of Misperception

[25:46] Utility of US-China Tabletop Exercises

[28:33] Predicting a Taiwan Contingency

The year 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of China’s Digital Silk Road, which has become an increasingly crucial component of Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign policy project: the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the past decade, China has massively expanded its digital infrastructure investment across the globe. Accompanying the investment has been the diffusion of China’s digital governance norms and standards in recipient states. Countries in the Indo-Pacific have been at the forefront of this stretching Chinese digital influence landscape. The conflation between digital development cooperation and digital governance norms adoption has far-reaching implications that need to be better understood and addressed. 

To discuss the issue, Michael Caster joins host Bonnie Glaser. Caster is the Head of Global China Programmeat ARTICLE 19, an NGO that advances freedom of opinion and expression. His organization has published two reports examining China's Digital Silk Road. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:30] Understanding China’s Digital Silk Road 

[05:57] China’s Digital Governance Norms

[10:16] China’s Digital Footprints Abroad

[16:07] Attractiveness of Chinese Digital Solutions

[18:56] Role of High-Tech Companies in Digital Governance

[21:44] Assessing the Effectiveness of China’s Digital Governance

[23:14] State-Driven Surveillance and Censorship

[27:39] China’s BeiDou Navigation System 

[31:09] How should governments respond to these normative shifts? 

Nuclear weapons have changed the nature of modern warfare and exerted a profound impact on international politics. The Cold War logic of nuclear deterrence maintains that nuclear-armed states will not attack one another because of fear of massive retaliation, or mutually assured destruction. By this logic, nuclear weapons promote stability and can prevent war.

At the same time, however, nuclear weapons created a new dilemma. That is: “How can a state achieve its political objectives through military force without triggering a catastrophic nuclear exchange?”

This is a dilemma faced by all countries, especially nuclear powers. States have responded differently to this dilemma. What is China’s answer to this strategic dilemma? What has Beijing been doing to gain strategic leverage? How should we evaluate the success of China’s approach so far?

These issues are the subject of a new book titled Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information Age Weapons in International Security. The author, Fiona Cunningham, joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode. Fiona is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. She is also a Faculty Fellow at Perry World House and affiliated with the Center for the Study of Contemporary China and the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:59] How do countries cope with the limited war dilemma?

[04:00] China’s Approach of Strategic Substitution

[07:24] Adoption of this Third Approach

[11:23] Utilizing Information-Age Weapons

[15:49] From Brinksmanship to Calibrated Escalation

[21:21] Understanding China’s No First Use Posture

[26:27] Following China’s Model 

[30:42] An American Response

In the past decade, China has ramped up its engagement in the Middle East, a region which is far from China geographically, but carries growing importance in China’s foreign policy. Economically, China is the biggest importer of the Middle East oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Chinese state-owned enterprises have invested heavily in the region under the Belt and Road Initiative with an emphasis on physical and digital infrastructure, including telecommunications, 5G connectivity, submarine optic cables, and security information systems.  Diplomatically, China played a role in brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two longstanding regional rivals. Beijing has also been instrumental in expanding the BRICS multilateral mechanism to include four Middle East countries. 

Securing access to vital natural resources is a key driver of Beijing’s intensified engagement in the Middle East. But China’s interests are broader and encompass economic, geopolitical and strategic considerations.

To further discuss China’s interests and evolving role in the Middle East, Michael Schuman joins host Bonnie Glaser. Michael is a nonresident senior fellow at the Global China Hub of the Atlantic Council and an author and journalist with more than 25 years of on-the-ground experience in Asia.  He is the co-author of a recently published report by the Atlantic Council titled China’s Middle East policy shift from ‘hedging’ to ‘wedging.’

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:06] China’s Interest in the Middle East

[04:23] Evaluating China’s Strategy of “Wedging” 

[06:51] Evaluating China’s Position of Neutrality

[10:17] Factors Driving China’s Middle Eastern Strategy 

[13:46] Chinese Bilateral and Multilateral Engagement 

[16:08] China’s Energy Ties with the Middle East

[19:41] Implications for the United States

[24:19] Limits to Chinese Engagement 

The Global South is a term that covers a broad swath of developing countries and emerging economies in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania. It is a grouping of over 130 heterogenous countries that is pushing to enhance its voice in global decision making. 

China, which self-identifies as a leader of the developing world, has a long history of engaging with the developing world. Under Xi Jinping, Beijing has deepened its ties with Global South countries through economic investment, diplomatic engagement, and security cooperation.  Meanwhile, developed countries from the wealthier and more industrialized Global North are stepping up efforts to counter Chinese influence and win support from Global South countries.  

What are China’s interests in the Global South?  What are the key strategies and tactics that Beijing utilizes to influence and engage with those countries? How have countries in the Global South responded to China’s influence?  And how will intensified Sino-American rivalry impact developing countries in the future? 

To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Mr. Masaaki Yatsuzuka, Senior Research Fellow at the China Division of the Regional Studies Department at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Japan (NIDS).  He is the co-author of the recently published report titled “The Rising Global South and China.” 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:55] Resurgent Interest in the Global South 

[04:28] Engaging Developing Countries

[06:51] Economic Tools and Mechanisms to Exert Influence

[08:55] Motivation for Expanding Military Presence 

[12:33] Perceptions of China in the Global South 

[15:07] Why does China’s involvement in the Global South matter? 

[17:39] US-China Competition Impacting the Global South

[19:00] India, Brazil, and Other Rising Powers

[20:35] Tokyo’s Concerns Over China’s Influence 

[22:41] Response to Increased Attention Paid to Developing Countries

[24:37] China’s Reaction to the Trump Administration 

Space, once a distant destination, has become yet another battleground for great power competition.  Since the early days of the People’s Republic of China, the country has been pursuing a series of ambitious space programs aimed to build up its space capacity as an essential element of its comprehensive national power.  In recent years, under the Xi Jinping regime, Beijing has significantly increased its investment in its civilian space program efforts. It has a plan to send Chinese Taikonauts to the Moon before the US can return.  As the US-China strategic competition continues to heighten, it is vital to assess China’s space policy and its role in China’s grand strategy. 

To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dean Cheng, senior advisor to the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a nonresident fellow with George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute. Dean focuses on China’s space program, Chinese military doctrine, and “dual-use” issues associated with China’s scientific and technical enterprises.  He also recently published a book titled China and the New Moon Race.

Timestamp

[00:00] Start

[01:54] Space Race 2.0

[03:27] Space in China’s Grand Strategy

[05:27] Achievements of China’s Space Program

[07:18] Similarities and Differences in China’s Approach

[09:14] Nature of Public-Private Cooperation in China

[12:42] Implications of Landing on the Moon

[15:30] A Chinese Incident in Space

[17:00] International Lunar Research Station 

[18:50] Responses to China’s Space Ambitions

[21:03] Problems in the US-China Civilian Space Race

[23:20] Stars and Stripes on Mars

When this episode goes live four days from now, Donald Trump will have been sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, after having served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.

Many countries around the world are closely watching to identify changes in US policy and assess their impact. China is one of those countries. As presidential candidate Donald Trump threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States. He also proposed revoking China’s Most Favored Nation trading status and banning China from buying US farmland. He pledged to curtail Chinese espionage and theft of intellectual property. On some occasions Trump praised Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and predicted that they would get along very well. In the past few months, Trump and Xi have been in communication through their representatives.

What approach will Beijing take toward Trump’s presidency this time around? Is China in a stronger or weaker position than it was in during Trump’s first term? What is the likely trajectory of US-China relations in the coming four years?

To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, who is the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies at Georgetown University. He served seven years in President Obama’s NSC first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:00] Lessons Beijing Learned from Trump’s First Term 

[04:11] Perceptions on the Balance of Economic Power 

[07:30] China’s Reaction to American Tariffs

[09:39] China Hurting the United States without Hurting Itself

[11:48] Starting Anew with the Trump Administration 

[13:38] An Early US-China Meeting

[16:46] An Inverse Bilateral Relationship 

[18:56] China Helping with the War in Ukraine

[25:18] Chinese Use of Force Against Taiwan 

[29:22] US Alliances Under the Trump Administration

[35:00] What worries Evan Medeiros in the US-China relationship?

In June 2020, Indian and Chinese forces engaged in a deadly clash along their disputed border in the Ladakh region. It was the deadliest confrontation since the 1962 war. Subsequently, bilateral ties between India and China deteriorated to their lowest level in decades. In recent months, however, China-India ties have begun to thaw.

Last October, India and China struck a border patrol deal. Indian Prime Minister Modi and China’s leader Xi Jinping subsequently met at the BRICS summit in Kazan—their first meeting in five years. That was followed by a round of talks by their top officials just a few weeks ago.

To discuss the status and trajectory of India-China relations, including how the second Trump presidency and other geopolitical developments are likely to influence that relationship, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Tanvi Madan. Tanvi is a senior fellow in the Center for Asia Policy Studies in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She is author of the book “Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War.”

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:45] October 2024 Border Patrol Deal

[06:40] Impetus for Stabilizing the Sino-Indian Relations

[10:50] Assessment of Wang Yi-Ajit Doval Meeting 

[15:26] Reviving Confident-Building Measures (CBMs)

[20:30] Overstating the Thaw in Sino-Indian Relations

[25:54] Bilateral Trade Volume and Economic Relations

[31:58] India-China Relations Moving Forward

In China’s 14th Five-Year Plan that spans from 2021 to 2025, priority was assigned to development of emerging technologies that could be both disruptive and foundational for the future. China is now a global leader in AI technology and is poised to overtake the West and become the world leader in AI in the years ahead. Importantly, there is growing evidence that AI-enabled military capabilities are becoming increasingly central to Chinese military concepts for fighting future wars.

A recently released report provides insights on Chinese perspectives on military use of AI. Published by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), the report illustrates some of the key challenges Chinese defense experts have identified in developing and fielding AI-related technologies and capabilities. 

Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by the author of this report, Sam Bresnick, who is a Research Fellow at Georgetown’s CSET focusing on AI applications and Chinese technology policy. 

TimestampsB

[00:00] Start

[01:33] Impetus for the Georgetown CSET Report

[03:34] China’s Assessment of the Impacts of AI and Emerging Technologies

[06:32] Areas of Debate Among Chinese Scholars

[09:39] Evidence of Progress in the Military Application of AI

[12:13] Lack of Trust Amongst Chinese Experts in Existing Technologies

[14:25] Constraints in the Development and Implementation of AI

[18:20] Chinese Expert Recommendations for Mitigating AI Risk

[23:01] Implications Taken from Discussions on AI Risk

[25:14] US-China Areas of Discussion on the Military Use of AI

[28:50] Unilateral Steps Toward Risk Mitigation