The President’s Inbox

By Council on Foreign RelationsNews Politics

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The President’s Inbox episodes

October 07Will There Be Meddling in the Midterms?
This episode unpacks the ongoing threat of influence and interference operations posed by Russia, China, and Iran as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Jessica Brandt, Senior Fellow for Technology and National Security, CFR, and former director of the Foreign Malign Influence Center at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence

We Discuss:
The difference between foreign “influence” operations and “interference” operations, and why the distinction matters.
How Russia, China, and Iran run influence campaigns, from troll farms to the corruption of influential Americans.
Why the intelligence community assesses that no foreign adversary could alter a U.S. vote count “at scale” without detection.
What the Tenet Media case revealed about Russia’s ability to covertly fund American influencers.
What President Donald Trump has claimed about Chinese interference in 2020 and what the evidence actually shows.
How the federal government’s influence-defense apparatus has been scaled back or stood down after being built up through 2024.
Why America’s decentralized, paper-backed election system is itself a source of security.
Whether AI and “influence-for-hire” firms are about to turbocharge the threat ahead of the 2026 and 2028 elections.

Mentioned on the Episode:
“Executive Order 13848: Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election,” The White House
“Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company That Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests,” U.S. Department of Justice

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/will-there-be-meddling-in-the-midterms

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
34 min
September 30The Seven Questions Every Military Strategist Must Ask
This episode unpacks what strategy really is, the seven questions every strategist must ask themselves before initiating a military operation, and why war stays so stubbornly unpredictable.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics

We Discuss:
What strategy can actually accomplish, and whether the outcome of war is ultimately a matter of chance.
Why Eliot Cohen adopts a deliberately narrow definition of strategy—and why he has little use for the fashionable term “grand strategy.”
The distinction between strategy and planning, and why execution is what separates a strategist from a planner.
The seven questions every strategist must ask, from “what else is going on?” to “what is your theory of victory?”
Why understanding the adversary—“Who are those guys?”—is a recurring American blind spot, including in the Iran war.
How surprise, groupthink, and the limits of human judgment repeatedly derail even the best-led war efforts.
What Carl von Clausewitz meant by describing war as the continuation of politics by other means.
Why a classical liberal education may be the best training for judgment in an age of AI.

Mentioned on the Episode:
James M. Lindsay, "The 10 Best and 10 Worst U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions," CFR.org
Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Princeton University Press
Eliot A. Cohen, The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics, Princeton University Press
Robert W. Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S.-GVN Performance in Vietnam, RAND Corporation
Peter Paret, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy: From Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age, Princeton University Press

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-seven-questions-every-military-strategist-must-ask

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
37 min
September 23Trump Rolls Out the Red Carpet for Xi
This episode unpacks Xi Jinping’s high-stakes Washington visit, discussions of “constructive stability,” and tensions over Taiwan, AI, and Iran.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guests:
Julian Gewirtz, Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs
Bonny Lin, Director of the China Power Project and Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

We Discuss:
Why Xi Jinping has chosen this moment for his first visit to Washington in a decade, and what his concept of “constructive strategic stability” would actually require of both sides.
What President Trump’s plan to personally greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews signals about Washington’s current view of the relationship.
Whether hosting a lavish state visit forty days before the midterms is a political risk for Trump and his party.
How Beijing aims to lock in a truce on its own terms, from Taiwan arms sales to the pace of diplomacy.
Whether a pending $14 billion arms package and stalled presidential transits are eroding Taiwan’s confidence in U.S. support.
What a U.S.-China AI dialogue can and can’t deliver, and why Dario Amodei’s call to “pace the frontier” lands differently in Beijing.
How China’s purchases of Iranian oil are shaping Iran’s resilience, and whether Washington’s threats against Chinese banks are credible.
What Xi’s recent diplomatic tour—and his skipping the UN General Assembly—reveals about the world order Beijing is building.

Mentioned on the Episode:
Dario Amodei, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” darioamodei.com
Julian Gewirtz, “Is Trump Really Giving Xi a State Visit 40 Days Before the Midterms?” Paper Tiger
“Taiwan Relations Act (H.R. 2479),” U.S. Congress

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/trump-rolls-out-the-red-carpet-for-xi

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
42 min
September 16Elbows Up: How Canada Is Fighting Trump’s Tariffs
This episode unpacks the deepening U.S.-Canada trade war, the collapse of a potential deal to end it, and whether decades of economic integration are rupturing.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Rohinton Medhora, Professor of Practice at McGill University and Distinguished Fellow at the Center for International Governance and Innovation (CIGI)

We Discuss:
Whether the latest U.S. tariffs mark a genuine “rupture” in the U.S.-Canada relationship or just another rough patch in a partnership that goes back more than a century.
How a nine-year arc—from the NAFTA renegotiation to USMCA—led to today’s standoff, and why Ottawa sees the U.S. national security rationale for steel and aluminum tariffs as a betrayal.
How a mid-August deal collapsed, and what Canadian negotiators mean by the “ghost in the room.”
Why Prime Minister Mark Carney chose to retaliate “elbows up” rather than follow Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s more conciliatory approach.
How Canada’s “messy and noisy” federation—from Doug Ford’s Ontario to Alberta’s secessionist stirrings and Quebec’s election—shapes Ottawa’s room to maneuver.
Whether energy exports are the “elephant in the room,” and how far Canada could go in using them as leverage.
How Ottawa is courting U.S. governors, senators, and public opinion in states that depend on cross-border trade.
What the unresolved fight over digital technology means for where the U.S.-Canada relationship heads next.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Ronald Reagan, “Radio Address to the Nation on Free and Fair Trade,” Ronald Reagan Presidential Library

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/elbows-up-how-canada-is-fighting-trumps-tariffs

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
40 min
September 10What the U.S. Got Wrong in the War on Terrorism
This episode unpacks how the September 11 attacks reshaped the U.S. approach to global threats and internal security.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Walter Russell Mead, Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship, Hudson Institute

We Discuss:
Why the September 11 attacks were such a pivotal moment in the history of U.S. foreign policy, and how they are understood by those who lived through them in comparison to younger Americans.
How the attacks shattered a post-Cold War sense in the United States that “history had ended,” with the world moving inevitably toward greater freedom and prosperity.
Whether the "Global War on Terrorism" reflected the idiosyncrasies of the Bush administration, or something more fundamental about how the United States responds to attacks.
How the Bush response to 9/11 compares to Franklin D. Roosevelt's response to Pearl Harbor.
Why the United States found it so hard to leave Afghanistan and Iraq, and how mission creep turned those military campaigns into open-ended nation-building projects.
How "liberal fundamentalism" shaped an overconfident belief that American values could be easily applied to other, complicated societies.
Why Americans tend to treat foreign policy as a solvable problem rather than a set of chronic issues to be managed.
The fate of the Jeffersonian impulse in American foreign policy, and what lessons Mead hopes 2028 presidential candidates will take from the legacy of September 11.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Walter Russell Mead, Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World, Knopf

Walter Russell Mead, Power, Terror, Peace, and War: America’s Grand Strategy in a World at Risk, Knopf

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago, Harper & Row

Walter Russell Mead, “The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of the Revisionist Powers,” Foreign Affairs

George F. Kennan (“X”), “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” Foreign Affairs

“The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (September 2002),” The White House

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/what-the-us-got-wrong-in-the-war-on-terror

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
36 min
September 02The CIA Director’s Not-So-Secret Trip to Moscow
This episode unpacks the potential purposes and implications of CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent surprise trip to Moscow.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, CFR

We Discuss:
What is actually known about CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unannounced trip to Moscow, and how the visit became public.
Whether Ratcliffe's conspicuous arrival by military aircraft across the Latvian border suggests the publicity was deliberate rather than a failed attempt at secrecy.
Competing explanations for the visit's purpose, from warning Russia against escalation to sending a message on Iran.
How unusual it is for a CIA director to make such a trip, and how it compares to Bill Burns's 2021 visit to Moscow.
How the intended audiences for the visit may include not just the Kremlin but also Russian and European elites, as well as the U.S. Congress as it weighs a new Russia sanctions bill.
Whether the trip is part of an effort to relieve domestic political pressure on Donald Trump, who faces demands to get tough on Russia.
How the Trump administration has struggled to reconcile firmness toward Russia with openness to diplomacy, including ambiguity surrounding the Alaska summit and a proposed tripartite summit.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Vladimir Putin, with Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov, First Person: An Astonishingly Frank Self-Portrait by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, PublicAffairs

Barak Ravid, “CIA Director Ratcliffe Floated Trump-Putin-Zelensky Summit During Moscow Visit, Sources Say,” Axios

“Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (S.1241),” U.S. Congress

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-cia-directors-not-so-secret-trip-to-moscow

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
32 min
August 26Six Months of War With Iran, With Steven Cook
This episode unpacks the current state of the U.S.-Iran conflict, broader dynamics in the Middle East, and the shifting U.S. role in the region.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR

We Discuss:
Who, if anyone, is winning the six-month war with Iran, and how freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's ability to menace its neighbors, and its incentives to pursue a nuclear weapon have all evolved.
Why the extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear program remains unknown, and why Tehran now has every incentive to dash toward weaponization.
How the war's decapitation strikes produced leadership change rather than genuine regime change, leading to a situation in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the hardest of Iran’s hardliners now call the shots in Tehran.
Whether the supposed split between Iranian "moderates" and "hardliners" is real or a Western construct that makes the regime more intelligible.
What President Donald Trump's "economic D-Day" is meant to achieve, and why it remains uncertain that economic isolation will lead to regime collapse.
Whether U.S. bluster carries real costs, and how doubts about U.S. credibility have pushed Gulf partners to look elsewhere for their security.
What the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey actually signals, and whether it represents an alternative to an American-sponsored regional order rather than a true Article 5-style pact.
Why the United Arab Emirates was left out of the Mecca agreement, and what the rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh reveals about fractures within the Gulf.
Where the region is headed as the U.S.-led Middle East order comes to an end, and whether a diminished U.S. role and greater regional agency is a good thing.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Steven A. Cook, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, Oxford University Press

Steven A. Cook, “The U.S.-Led Middle East Order Is Over. The Mecca Agreement Proves It.,” Council on Foreign Relations

Steven A. Cook, “After Iran, It’s Time for the United States to Leave the Middle East,” Foreign Policy

Marc Lynch, “The End of the American Middle East: Iran and the Last Gasp of a Failed Order,” Foreign Affairs

Robert Kagan, “Iran Unleashed,” The Atlantic

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/six-months-of-war-with-iran

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
35 min
August 19Washington’s Missile Shortage, With Michael Horowitz
This episode unpacks reporting that U.S. munitions stockpiles are dangerously low and lays out the consequences of the shortage both for Washington’s ongoing war with Iran, and for its deterrence of adversaries.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Michael C. Horowitz, Senior Fellow for Technology and Innovation and Director of the Defense and National Security Program, CFR

We Discuss:
Whether news reports of a serious depletion of U.S. high-tech weapons stocks are accurate, and how far inventories have been drawn down.
The distinction between defensive interceptors, such as Patriot and THAAD, and offensive standoff weapons, such as Tomahawks and ATACMS, and how long each takes to produce.
How the roots of the munitions crisis trace back to decisions in the 1990s—including the "Last Supper" defense industry consolidation—that prioritized quality over quantity.
Why President Donald Trump's argument that the shortage stems from Biden-era weapons transfers to Ukraine misses deeper structural causes.
How chokepoints—from Chinese rare-earth dominance to consolidated tier-two and tier-three suppliers—make ramping up production slow and costly.
Why the Pentagon has been slow to shift its acquisition strategy despite nearly a decade of warnings about renewed great power competition, and how "not invented here" attitudes compound the problem.
Whether budget austerity would spur innovation or choke it, and how "precise mass" could revitalize U.S. capabilities within a two-year window.
How much the current drawdown threatens deterrence at a moment when the United States is left without an aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Rush Doshi, Erin D. Dumbacher, William Henagan, Michael C. Horowitz, and Samuel Lazarus, “Out of Ammo: A Two-Year Sprint to Rebuild the American Arsenal and Deter China,” Council on Foreign Relations

“One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1),” U.S. Congress

Michael C. Horowitz, “Battles of Precise Mass: Technology Is Remaking War—and America Must Adapt,” Foreign Affairs

Erin D. Dumbacher, Michael C. Horowitz, and Lauren Kahn, “Will Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Defense Spending Last?” Council on Foreign Relations

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/washingtons-missile-shortage

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
34 min
July 22Maximum Pressure on Cuba, With Will Freeman
This episode unpacks how the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign is accelerating Cuba's economic collapse and what a firsthand trip to the country reveals about life amidst the crisis.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Will Freeman, Fellow for Latin America Studies, CFR

We Discuss:
What the Trump administration is ultimately seeking to accomplish with its Cuba policy.
How secondary sanctions differ from the existing trade embargo.
What life on the ground in Cuba looks like today, with a mass economic crisis including widespread malnutrition and near-total electricity blackouts.
Whether ordinary Cubans blame the United States or their own government for the crisis.
Whether Cuba's government is attempting to pivot toward a China-style state capitalist system.
What Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) is, why it controls so much of Cuba's economy, and who actually benefits from it.
Whether the Trump administration's pressure is targeting GAESA directly.
Why a Venezuela-style external coup or regime collapse is harder to engineer in Cuba.

Mentioned on the Episode:

"Cuba's 176 Market-Liberalization Measures," NBC News, June 20, 2026

"July 11, 2021 Protests in Cuba," WOLA, July 2022

"Miami Herald Investigation: GAESA's Secret Dollar Reserves," Miami Herald, August 6, 2025

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/maximum-pressure-on-cuba

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
34 min
July 15U.S.-India Relations Under Stress, With Sadanand Dhume
U.S.-India relations have struggled despite U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close personal relationship. This episode unpacks why tariffs, security concerns, and a détente with China has reframed the importance of the relationship, and what it could take to put it back on track.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:

Sadanand Dhume, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, CFR

We Discuss:
Why U.S.-India relations have been uncertain since mid-2025 after having slowly strengthened over many years.
How the second Trump administration’s early actions and India’s multipolar diplomacy forced substantive confrontations thatTrump and Modi’s personal relationship could not overcome.
Why U.S.-India trade negotiations stalled and the Trump administration imposed tariffs, despite India repeatedly offering concessions.
How the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and Trump’s claim of forcing a ceasefire put Modi in a domestic political bind.
How Pakistan’s prominent role in brokering the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has amplified Indian anxieties about a U.S.-Pakistan thaw.
Why Trump’s talk of a Group of Two with China undermines its strategic desire to strengthen India as a counterweight to Chinese power.
What the state of the Quad—an informal security dialogue among the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—and the United States’ de-emphasis of the Indo-Pacific framework reveal about U.S. strategy in Asia.
How Modi is normalizing ties with China and whether there is a limit to normalization given the Himalayan border dispute and China’s efforts to constrain India’s growth.
How India’s dependence on Russian arms has fallen over time, and why India is increasingly skeptical that Russia can act independently of China.
Why Modi has resisted domestic political pressure to challenge Trump, and what that restraint reveals about India’s calculation of its long-term national interest.
Where the greatest opportunity lies to rebuild the U.S.-India relationship, and why tech cooperation and Silicon Valley represent the most natural and promising place to start.

Mentioned in the Episode:

“How People in 24 Countries View India,” Pew Research Center

Mathew George, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman, “Trends In International Arms Transfers, 2024,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
35 min