In this episode, we get into what's driving the Indo-Pacific's security dynamics, from China's threats to Taiwan to AUKUS and the Quad to stability (or lack thereof) on the Korean Peninsula to bases in the Philippines. We also touch on how prepared the United States may be to deliver military power in the Indo-Pacific based on forthcoming resourcing decisions by the Trump administration and Congress. Get ready for a smart, insightful conversation you won't want to miss with Lisa Curtis (CNAS), Zack Cooper (AEI), and Dmitri Alperovitch (Silverado). Cooper has a great new book out called Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries (https://a.co/d/cP4OPgU). And so does Alperovitch, who wrote World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century (https://a.co/d/eUDRdlF) with Garrett M. Graff. 

The Marine general and deputy commandant in charge of installations and logistics was kind enough to join Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on military service, logistics, and so much more. Whether you are a servicemember or someone interested in how the U.S. military will be able to stay in the fight should a war break out in the Indo-Pacific, this episode is a must-listen.

This episode was supported by Onebrief. 

Nothing about the war in Ukraine is simple — including the diplomacy, which might be even messier than the battlefield. Michael Kofman, Justin Logan (Cato), and Liana Fix (the Council on Foreign Relations) joined Ryan to help him understand the negotiations underway about Ukraine's fate. From the minerals deal to Zelensky's approach to Trump to the prospects for a European peacekeeping force, they cover it all, and have a few friendly arguments along the way.

Member of U.K. Parliament and military veteran Tom Tugendhat was recently in Washington and was kind enough to join Ryan for a short but weighty conversation. Tugendhat chaired the Foreign Affairs Select Committee between 2017 and 2022 and then served in the previous government as minister of state for security. They discussed his time in government as well as the landscape of threats, including (not surprisingly) Russia — and how the war might best end — as well as China, informed by his recent trip to Taiwan. Please note this episode was recorded before the Munich Security Conference. 

Will NATO be able to innovate and adapt before a crisis? Adm. Pierre Vandier popped into War on the Rocks HQ for a most interesting chat about this very question. He serves as Supreme Allied Commander Transformation. A senior leader in the French navy and career fighter pilot, Vandier is responsible for the transformation of NATO's military structures, forces, capabilities, and doctrines. With Ukraine struggling against Russia, technology advancing at a thunderous pace, and the geopolitical landscape shifting, Vandier offers some fascinating, quotable insights. 

Mike Kofman joined Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on the challenges faced by both Ukraine and Russia this year. They discuss losses on both sides, manpower challenges, the importance of following the discourse in Ukraine, the Russian economy, and whether the Russian pace of operations will clearly slow down. This episode is brought to you by Bedrock Knowledge.

Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine's mobilization reluctance to the Biden administration's curious approach to sequencing authorities and capabilities, they review what might ultimately cost Ukraine the war. And make no mistake, that is where the war is trending. Ryan also runs an idea by Mike on how the issue of security guarantees might work in the event of a peace settlement, in a way that doesn't involve NATO directly. 

We are sharing a free Thanksgiving episode of the Russia Contingency with you all to express our gratitude for your listenership and support. This episode, brought to you by OneBrief, features Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussing the state of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the role of technology, especially drones. Many of the insights they share are based on their recent research trip to Ukraine.