The President’s Inbox

By Council on Foreign RelationsNews Politics

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The President’s Inbox episodes

July 08The Myth of the AI Race, With Alvin Wang Graylin
This episode unpacks U.S. and Chinese AI strategies, regulation approaches, and the future implications for society and security.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Alvin Wang Graylin, Senior Fellow for Technology, Asia Society; Digital Fellow, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence; Professor of AI/Tech Policy, University of Washington

We Discuss:
Whether the framing of an AI "race" with China is accurate or helpful, and why it may be producing costly policy distortions.
The concept of AGI (artificial general intelligence) and the thesis that underpins U.S. policy.
China's focus on broad industrial adoption over frontier model development.
How U.S. export controls and visa restrictions spurred the innovations behind DeepSeek.
Why China turned down the offer to purchase NVIDIA H200 chips.
Why Beijing regulates AI more extensively than either the United States or Europe.
The Trump-Xi discussions on AI safety guardrails and the shared interest in preventing non-state bad actors from weaponizing AI.
The economic bubble risk posed by rapidly rising data center costs.

Mentioned on the Episode:

China's "AI Plus" Initiative, State Council of China, August 2025

China's New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan, State Council of China, 2017

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-myth-of-the-ai-race

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
39 min
July 01Lessons From 250 Years of U.S. Foreign Policy, With Robert Kagan
This episode unpacks the history of 250 years of U.S. foreign policy and examines patterns of the United States’ engagement with the world.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Robert Kagan, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; Author, Dangerous Nation: America’s Place in the World From Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century and The Ghost at the Feast: America and Collapse of World Order, 1900-1941

We Discuss:
Why Robert Kagan argues that Americans misunderstand their own history and have long been a “dangerous nation” rather than an insular one.
How American foreign policy debates have always been entangled with domestic politics, and what the polarized fights of the founding era reveal about the true norm of American political life.
Which forces have consistently pulled the United States outward, producing an oscillation between intervention and retrenchment.
Why the era of American imperialism following the Spanish-American War, including the humanitarian motives behind U.S. intervention in Cuba, is among the most misunderstood chapters of U.S. history
Why Americans tend to enter wars with enthusiasm only to sour on them afterward.
Whether the United States is forgetting the lessons of the postwar order.
What the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence should teach Americans about the fragility of liberal democracy.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Robert Kagan, Dangerous Nation: America’s Place in the World From Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century, Knopf

Robert Kagan, The Ghost at the Feast: America and the Collapse of World Order, 1900–1941, Knopf

Robert Kagan, The Jungle Grows Back: America and Our Imperiled World, Knopf

Walter Lippmann, U.S. Foreign Policy: Shield of the Republic, Little, Brown

Norman Angell, The Great Illusion, G.P. Putnam’s Sons

Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man, Free Press

James A. Field Jr., “American Imperialism: The Worst Chapter in Almost Any Book,” American Historical Review

“Declaration of Independence,” National Archives

George Washington, “Farewell Address,” 1796

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/lessons-from-250-years-of-us-foreign-policy

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
35 min
June 24Women in Power, With Linda Robinson
This episode unpacks the unique challenges faced by women leaders, their contributions to democracy, and the critical lessons they offer in the fight against authoritarianism.

Enter the CFR book giveaway by July 8, 2026, for the chance to win one of ten free copies of Women in Power by Linda Robinson. You can read the terms and conditions of the offer here.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Linda Robinson, Senior Fellow for Women and Foreign Policy, CFR; Author, Women in Power: Fighting for Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism

We Discuss:
Why women's political representation has stalled at roughly 27 percent in the world's legislatures.
How right-wing authoritarianism and the normalization of violent misogyny have combined to create ferocious headwinds for women in politics.
Whether women govern differently from men, and what the research reveals about their attentiveness to health, education, welfare, and climate issues.
Why rolling back women's rights is central to authoritarian and right-wing movements, and why playing the "misogyny card" proves so effective, even among women voters.
Why some of the most prominent nationalist movements—in Italy, France, and Germany—are led by women, and how right-leaning figures like Giorgia Meloni complicate the picture.
How authoritarian governments use hybrid warfare and gendered disinformation against women leaders, including Chinese campaigns against Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen and Russian campaigns against Moldova's Maia Sandu.
Which common themes emerge among successful women leaders.
Which policy reforms could strengthen both democracy and women's political participation.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Linda Robinson, Women in Power: Fighting for Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism, Columbia University Press

Sanna Marin, Hope in Action: A Memoir About the Courage to Lead, Scribner

“Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy,” Freedom House

“Expanding Representation: Reinventing Congress for the 21st Century,” American Academy of Arts and Sciences

“TAKE IT DOWN Act (S.146),” U.S. Congress

“The Digital Services Act,” European Commission

“First Five,” HBO Max

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/women-in-power

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
36 min
June 17Ukraine Turns the Tide, With Liana Fix
This episode unpacks whether Ukraine has turned the tide against Russia on the battlefield and assesses the new security relationship between Ukraine and Europe.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Liana Fix, Senior Fellow for Europe, CFR

We Discuss:
The state of the battlefield in Ukraine after four and a half years of war.
How Ukraine’s drone strategy has evolved from frontline attacks to strikes deep inside Russia.
Why Russia has failed to achieve its goals on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
Growing frustration among the Russian elite and what it signals about Putin's position.
What U.S. intelligence sharing still provides Ukraine and why direct military aid has effectively ended.
How European countries have filled the military support gap left by the United States.
Whether European support for Ukraine is politically sustainable.
What escalation options Putin has left.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Jack Watling, "Ukraine Turns the Tide," Foreign Affairs

Sauli Niinistö, "Safer Together: Strengthening Europe's Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness," European Commission

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/ukraine-turns-the-tide

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
36 min
June 10America’s Ebola Preparedness, With Thomas Bollyky
This episode unpacks how a major Ebola outbreak in Central Africa exposed critical gaps in global health surveillance and assesses U.S. preparedness for future biological threats.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Thomas J. Bollyky, Bloomberg Chair in Global Health; Senior Fellow for International Economics, Law, and Development; and Director of the Global Health Program

We Discuss:
The current state of the Ebola outbreak in the DRC and Uganda, and why the case count was already high by the time authorities reported it.
Why governments are often slow to report cases during outbreaks, and what delayed reporting may have cost in this instance.
Why the WHO has discouraged trade and travel restrictions.
How the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO is shaping a more limited response.
Whether China is stepping in to fill the global health leadership gap left by U.S. institutional withdrawal.
What the politicization of mRNA vaccine technology means for the U.S. ability to respond to future outbreaks that require rapid vaccine deployment.
How artificial intelligence creates opportunities to accelerate global health responses, but also introduces new risks like engineered pathogens.

Mentioned on the Episode:

CDC Health Alert: Ebola Disease Outbreak in the DRC and Uganda, May 19, 2026

WHO Disease Outbreak News: Ebola caused by Bundibugyo Virus, DRC and Uganda, May 21, 2026

WHO Declaration of Public Health Emergency of International Concern, May 17, 2026

Bollyky et al., "Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis," The Lancet

CDC Mobilizes International Response Following Ebola Disease Outbreak, May 18, 2026

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/americas-ebola-preparedness

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
37 min
June 03America at 250: The Marshall Plan, With Benn Steil
This episode unpacks how the Marshall Plan transformed postwar Western Europe and why security, allied cooperation, and forward thinking were the real keys to its enduring success.

To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a yearlong series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics, CFR

We Discuss:
How the British Empire’s rapid collapse in early 1947 forced the United States to assume responsibility for Western European security.
What George Marshall’s six weeks of negotiations in Moscow revealed about Soviet intentions in Germany and Western Europe.
How Marshall deliberately crafted the plan’s offer to include the Soviet Union while ensuring Soviet leader Joseph Stalin would reject it.
How Congress, controlled by Republicans, was persuaded to support a massive foreign aid program from a Democratic administration.
Whether the Marshall Plan's $13 billion actually explains Western Europe’s economic recovery in the late 1940s.
What role NATO played in making the Marshall Plan work, and why the French and British insisted on security guarantees before cooperating.
Why security has to precede economic reconstruction—and what Afghanistan and Iraq reveal about ignoring that lesson.
What Senator Henry Cabot Lodge Jr.’s 1947 prediction about sustained alliances tells us about the stakes of U.S. foreign policy today.

Mentioned on the Episode:

The 10 Best and Worst Decisions in U.S. Foreign Policy, Council on Foreign Relations

Benn Steil, The Marshall Plan: Dawn of the Cold War

George Kennan’s Long Telegram, February 22, 1946

“Sinews of Peace (‘Iron Curtain’ Speech).” at Westminster College, Fulton, Missouri, March 5, 1946.

Harry Truman, “The Truman Doctrine,” Address to Congress, March 12, 1947

George C. Marshall, Commencement Address at Harvard University June 5, 1947

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-at-250-the-marshall-plan

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
41 min
May 27Why the U.S. Needs an Africa Strategy, With Michelle Gavin
This episode unpacks how Africa's demographic surge, critical mineral wealth, and expanding security threats are reshaping its relevance to U.S. foreign policy in the twenty-first century.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Michelle Gavin, Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies, CFR

We Discuss:
Why U.S. policy has historically treated engagement with Africa as an option rather than a strategic priority.
How Africa's demographic growth is reshaping its position in the global order.
Why maritime chokepoints around Africa are increasingly critical to global commerce.
How other powers, including China, Turkey, and the Gulf states, are outpacing the United States in building African partnerships.
What Africa's critical mineral resources mean for the green transition and for African domestic politics.
How the United States can balance working with political elites while remaining relevant to broader African publics.
What the diminished U.S. response to the current Ebola outbreak reveals about American policy choices.
Why job creation should be the organizing principle for any coherent U.S. strategy toward the continent.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Michelle Gavin, "The New African Power Map," cfr.org

Michelle Gavin, The Age of Change: How Urban Youth Are Transforming African Politics

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/why-the-us-needs-an-africa-strategy

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
36 min
May 20What Trump and Xi Didn't Settle in Beijing, With Nicholas Burns
This episode unpacks the key discussion points from the U.S.-China summit, including Taiwan, the Iran war, AI regulation, and the future of U.S.-China relations.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Nicholas Burns, Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government; Former U.S. Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China (2021–2025)
We Discuss:
Whether the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing represented a genuine diplomatic breakthrough or merely a cooling of tensions without resolving underlying conflicts.
What the dueling U.S. and Chinese post-summit statements reveal about each country's divergent priorities and negotiating strategies.
How significant the summit's economic deliverables—agricultural sales commitments, Boeing aircraft sales, and a potential tariff truce—actually are.
How Xi Jinping's early and deliberate warning about Taiwan set the tone for the summit, and what his decision to leak that statement mid-meeting signals about Chinese tactics.
Whether President Trump's equivocation about U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and the One China policy constitutes a major strategic mistake and what it means for American credibility with allies in the Indo-Pacific.
What the presence of Putin in Beijing immediately after Trump's visit reveals about Chinese strategic alignments.
Why an emerging U.S.-China dialogue on artificial intelligence regulation could prove to be the most consequential and underappreciated outcome of the Beijing summit.
What concrete benchmarks—from tariff agreements to arms sales to Chinese follow-through on commitments—will determine whether this summit actually put U.S.-China relations on a more stable footing.
Mentioned on the Episode:
"Joint Statement Following Discussions with Leaders of the People's Republic of China (Shanghai Communiqué)" U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian

"President Reagan's Six Assurances to Taiwan" Congressional Research Service

"Readout of President Joe Biden's Meeting with President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China" The White House

"Taiwan Relations Act" Pub. L. 96–8, enacted April 10, 1979

"United States-China Joint Communiqué on United States Arms Sales to Taiwan" Ronald Reagan Presidential Library

"U.S.-PRC Joint Communiqué (1979)" U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/what-trump-and-xi-didnt-settle-in-beijing

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
36 min
May 13Trump and Xi in Beijing, With Rush Doshi
This episode unpacks President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the first by a sitting U.S. President in nearly a decade, as the United States and China work through a tense period of détente.

Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:
Rush Doshi, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow for Asia Studies and Director of the China Strategy Initiative

We Discuss:
Whether the Trump-Xi summit will represent continuity or a new phase in the U.S.-China relationship.
How China assesses the military and economic balance of power with the United States.
What last year's trade war revealed and how it produced the current period of managed competition.
As Rush Doshi puts it: “I don’t think there’s going to be a large structural breakthrough.”
What deliverables the Trump administration is seeking from the summit, and why negotiations are focused on process mechanisms and stability.
How China has responded to the U.S.-Iran war and why it has stayed on the sidelines despite having clear strategic interests.
Why China welcomes U.S. entanglement in foreign conflicts but fears their effects on global trade and resource access.
Why China is more exposed than the United States freedom of navigation threats and naval chokepoints.
Why President Biden never traveled to Beijing, and how China is framing Trump's visit.
Why American CEOs are joining Trump's trip, and what role they play in the summit.
Whether the U.S. and China will negotiate agreements on artificial intelligence and its role in great power competition.
How China has treated seemingly mutually-beneficial crisis communication channels as negotiation ploys in return for U.S. concessions.
Whether Taiwan will be on the agenda, what concessions China is seeking, and how U.S. policy shifts could affect internal Taiwanese politics on unification.
How a so-called Board of Trade and other bilateral mechanisms could formalize a lasting state of managed trade between the two countries

Mentioned on the Episode:

“President Xi Jinping Speaks with U.S. President Donald J. Trump on the Phone” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Evelyn Cheng, “Trump is taking more than a dozen U.S. executives to China. Jensen Huang isn’t one of them,” CNBC

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/trump-and-xi-in-beijing-with-rush-doshi

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
38 min
May 06The Spillover: Are Prediction Markets Forecasting Tools or Virtual Casinos?
Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

We discuss:
How prediction markets are turning the world into a “casino” where you can bet on almost anything, from elections and geopolitics to sports and niche events.
The evolution of prediction markets from academic tools to mainstream platforms shaping finance, politics, and culture.
Why these markets sometimes outperform polls, where they fall short, and how they blur the line between forecasting and entertainment-driven gambling.
As Rebecca Patterson asks: “Are these markets actually useful, or are they just gambling dressed up as forecasting?”
The legal gray areas that are allowing prediction markets to expand so quickly and the growing risk of manipulation and insider bets.
An anecdote from France, where someone allegedly tampered with a weather sensor to manipulate the outcome of a prediction market bet.
How governments and regulators are struggling to keep up.
Whether these markets truly reflect the “wisdom of crowds” or just loud, well-funded players.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” Federal Reserve Board

“The Future of Financial Services Regulation: A Conversation with CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero,” Brookings Institution

Adam Hoffer and Jacob Macumber-Rosin, “Expanded Sports Betting Legalization Would Generate Billions in Tax Revenue,” Tax Foundation

Andy Serwer, “Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t,” Barron's

Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.

The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
48 min