In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up transatlantic relations, and for European leaders being caught off guard. Attas for President Trump’s wisdom on nuclear weapons, to Narendra Modi for strengthening the U.S.-Indian relationship, and to Poland’s Donald Tusk, and France’s Ben Haddad, for taking the hard steps to try to build European self-reliance.

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The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way. But they also fear that the solutions to these problems will require more fundamental changes to the U.S. bureaucracy than have been contemplated. Chris gives an attaboy to experts heading into the Trump administration, Melanie commends the White House’s interest in missile defense, and Zack gives the State Department kudos for bringing together an early meeting of Quad foreign ministers. All three lament the use of tariffs against U.S. neighbors who already agreed to trade deals during Trump’s first term.

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Chris, Zack, and Melanie got together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, when so many other parts of the world are competing for U.S. attention?

Chris gives the chilly weather the cold shoulder, Zack wishes the outgoing and new presidents would enforce the Tik Tok ban as the law requires, and Melanie thanks the departing chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence for his service.

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Back from their holiday break, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Michael Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz’s recent War on the Rocks’ article, which considers whether and how the United States and its allies should incorporate new technologies into their military forces. Is it time for cheap, uncrewed systems to replace larger, manned platforms? What is the optimal mix of high-end, exquisite systems, and low-end, attritable assets? And how should the Pentagon, NATO, and our other allies invest resources to be best situated for potential conflicts? President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s planned purchase of U.S. Steel receives not one but two grievances. Chris complains about misinformed reactions to the tragic incidents on New Year’s Eve. Hearty attas to President-elect Donald Trump for suggesting that U.S. allies could build U.S. warships, to the National Security Archive at George Washington University, and to Finland for seizing the Russian ship suspected of cutting undersea cables (and for the Finns’ general seriousness on matters of national defense). 

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The fall of Bashar al-Assad is transforming not just Syria but also dynamics in the broader Middle East. What implications does this have for U.S. policy in the region? Should U.S. forces withdraw, or is there a continuing role for the American military in Syria? Melanie laments what appears to be the end of the road for Nippon Steel’s efforts to purchase U.S. Steel, Chris questions the panic around aircraft flying over New Jersey, and Zack grieves for South Korea after Yoon Suk Yeol’s disastrous martial law declaration.

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The team sat down to talk about the very bleak situation in Ukraine. Is it impossible for Ukraine to overcome its many challenges? Will Trump’s team be able to get Putin to the negotiating table, or is he all-in on victory? What roles might the US and Europe play in a ceasefire?  

Chris highlights an article on the 1983 Proud Prophet wargame, Zack congratulates Alex Wong, who is heading into the Trump administration, and Melanie criticizes President Biden for pardoning his son.

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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss how and if the new Trump national security team can help America reset its strategic mindset. What would a successful overmatch strategy look like, in action? How would it differ from the strategy of the last four years? Can the United States mobilize the resources necessary to “ensure lopsided victories over the enemy in combat.”? And what tradeoffs would the United States and its partners need to make? Grievances for Donald Trump, for his plan to use recess appointments, and for his stated desire to rename U.S. military bases after loser Confederates, and to Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto for some confusing statements about security in the South China Sea. Attas to President Biden for lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons against targets in Russia, to the EU for freeing up more funds that can be used for defense, and to France for approving a $438 million aid package to help the Philippines enhance their maritime security capabilities, and for training Ukrainian forces.

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The United States has a growing disconnect between its foreign policy objectives and the resources it devotes to national security, but inertia has hampered meaningful policy change in recent years. Chris and Melanie discuss a recent article from Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim that analyzes the challenges associated with overcoming status quo bias. Chris commends Taiwan for purchasing new missiles for defense purposes and Melanie praises Australia for adapting to the new missile age.

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Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down for a retrospective episode about the Biden administration’s foreign and defense policy. Using U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Foreign Affairs article “America’s Strategy of Renewal,” they ask if the United States is better off in terms of national security than it was four years ago. What are the most important accomplishments of the Biden team, and what have been its critical failures? Are our alliance relationships as strong as Blinken wants us to believe? What opportunities were missed, and which were seized?

Zack and Melanie are amazed by what Elon Musk has done with SpaceX, and Chris is disappointed that the administration hasn’t shut the door on Ukraine joining NATO.

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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the American military footprint in Europe. Why does the United States maintain such a large presence there? Are there other ways to accomplish our goals with a smaller physical presence there? And what outcomes would we see if the United States made major troop reductions on the continent? Grievances for Tony Blinken’s tone-deaf article in Foreign Affairs and toward Europe for its continued trade with Russia, while Zack expresses concern for New Zealand’s navy following the loss of one its newer warships. Attapeople to Cato’s Colin Grabow for a sensible proposal to enhance the U.S. shipbuilding industry; to the United States and South Korea for a creative cost-sharing agreement; and to the U.K. government for ceding control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

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