An immense and growing national debt, entrenched political polarization, and falling levels of patriotism might lead some to conclude that the position of the United States in the world is weakening compared to other major economies. Michael Beckley looks at other measures, including geography, wealth, alliances, and demographics, and concludes that “This is the paradox of American power: the United States is a divided country, perpetually perceived as in decline, yet it consistently remains the wealthiest and most powerful state in the world—leaving competitors behind.” But, he says, all is not well: an urban-rural divide and a “hollow internationalism” threaten our stability and security. Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about whether the United States is in decline, how our advantages might create vulnerabilities, and how dysfunction at home affects America’s ability to wield influence abroad.

Chris has a shoutout for Gabe Murphy and his work on base realignment, Zack has a remembrance of recently-passed security scholar, practitioner, and mentor Joseph Nye, and Melanie criticizes the Biden administration for not coming clean about the extent of failure of the Gaza Pier.

Links: 

• Michael Beckley, “The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power Abroad Comes with Dysfunction at Home,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025.

• Michael Beckley, “The Age of American Unilateralism,” Foreign Affairs, April 16, 2025.

• Christopher Preble, “Trump’s Rise: Who’s to Blame?” Cato at Liberty, March 3, 2016.

• Alexander Cornwell, "US, Israel discuss possible US-led administration for Gaza, sources say," Reuters, May 7, 2025.

• Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/

• Gabe Murphy, “Base Instincts: A Case for Base Realignment and Closures at Home and Abroad,” Taxpayers for Common Sense, May 2025.

• John Hendel, “The $42 Billion Biden Internet Program Frustrating Dems in Swing States,” Politico, September 4, 2024.

• Alex Horton, “Biden’s Gaza Pier Was More Dangerous and Costly than Previously Known,” Washington Post, May 7, 2025.

• John Arnold, Immigration chart, X, May 11, 2025. 

Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Rose Gottemoeller’s claim that arms control is not yet dead, but essential. Are there realistic prospects for a new arms control deal? If the Trump administration seriously seeks agreements with Russia and China, what should we demand? And what concessions might we offer? And what should be the objective of any new arms control agreements? Grievances for the Pentagon’s slow-motion train wreck, to worrisome reports of deep cuts at the State Department, and for the Trump administration’s reported minerals deal in Ukraine. Zack offers a heartfelt attaboy to his mentor Richard Armitage, who passed away earlier this month after a lifetime of service. Attas also to Secretary of State Marco Rubio for not cutting State more, and to the Carnegie Endowment for a new report on the foreign policy attitudes of Generation Z.

Links:

• Rose Gottemoeller, “Arms Control Is Not Dead Yet: America Should Pursue Parallel Nuclear Negotiations With China and Russia,” Foreign Affairs, April 15, 2025

• Christopher S. Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser, “What Gen Z Thinks About U.S. Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025

• Geoff Wilson, Christohper Preble, and Lucas Ruiz, Gambling on Armageddon, Stimson Center, February 19, 2025 

• Nancy A. Youssef, Alexander Ward, and Vera Bergengruen, “Polygraph Threats, Leaks and Infighting: Pete Hegseth Rattled by Pentagon Chaos,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2025

• Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/

• “Armitage’s Story,” Last Days in Vietnam clip, PBS, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/lastdays-armitage/.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the calendar to avoid a tough vote; for DOGE’s spending cuts that won’t drive the savings they claim, but that are creating havoc; and (again) for the Navy’s troubled Constellation frigate. Attas to Princeton President Christopher L. Eisgruber for standing up for academic freedom; for President Trump’s executive orders on the maritime industrial base and acquisition reform; and to Deputy DNI for Mission Integration William Ruger. And a bonus attagirl to our biggest fan: Melanie’s mom!

Links:

• Tanner Greer, “Obscurity by Design: Competing Priorities for America’s China Policy,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 27, 2025.
• Ross Douthat, “Trump Is on a Path to Failure,” New York Times, April 12, 2025.
• “Gambling on Armageddon: Costs and Risks of Nuclear Modernization,” Online Event, Stimson Center, May 1, 2025, 2-3 pm ET
• Joseph Trevithick, “First Constellation Frigate Only 10% Complete, Design Still Being Finalized,” TWZ, April 10, 2025
• Alistair MacDonald and Gordon Lubold, “The Warship That Shows Why the U.S. Navy Is Falling Behind China,” Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2025
• Emma Ashford, “Foreign Policy Is Much More than a Liberal vs. Conservative Brawl,” War on the Rocks, March 13, 2020
• Kenza Bryan and Demitri Sevastopulo, "Donald Trump Plans to Stockpile Deep-Sea Critical Metals to Counter China," Financial Times, April 12, 2025. 
• Arthur Delaney, Igor Bobic, and Jennifer Bendery, "GOP Changes House Rules to Prevent Themselves from Blocking Trump's Tariffs," HuffPost, April 9, 2025. 
• Erin Banco, Gram Slattery, and Humeyra Pamuk, "Trump Envoy's Embrace of Russian Demands Worries Republicans, US Allies," Reuters, April 12, 2025. 
• “The University President Willing to Fight Trump,” The Daily, New York Times, April 9, 2925.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack are joined by a special guest for a big announcement. They also lament the demise of the Office of Net Assessment, debate the merits of DOGE, and discuss Secretary Hegseth’s visit to Asia and the strength of those alliances.  If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund: https://www.stimson.org/support/

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to a continuing resolution to fund government, and Zack criticizes the administration’s efforts to pull Congressionally appropriated funds from several storied American institutions.

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Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship?

Chris has some hard words for Congress for its abdication of oversight of arms sales, Zack gives an atta to his brilliant wife, and Melanie is pretty darn proud of the work being done at War on the Rocks.

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In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up transatlantic relations, and for European leaders being caught off guard. Attas for President Trump’s wisdom on nuclear weapons, to Narendra Modi for strengthening the U.S.-Indian relationship, and to Poland’s Donald Tusk, and France’s Ben Haddad, for taking the hard steps to try to build European self-reliance.

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The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way. But they also fear that the solutions to these problems will require more fundamental changes to the U.S. bureaucracy than have been contemplated. Chris gives an attaboy to experts heading into the Trump administration, Melanie commends the White House’s interest in missile defense, and Zack gives the State Department kudos for bringing together an early meeting of Quad foreign ministers. All three lament the use of tariffs against U.S. neighbors who already agreed to trade deals during Trump’s first term.

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Chris, Zack, and Melanie got together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, when so many other parts of the world are competing for U.S. attention?

Chris gives the chilly weather the cold shoulder, Zack wishes the outgoing and new presidents would enforce the Tik Tok ban as the law requires, and Melanie thanks the departing chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence for his service.

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Back from their holiday break, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Michael Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz’s recent War on the Rocks’ article, which considers whether and how the United States and its allies should incorporate new technologies into their military forces. Is it time for cheap, uncrewed systems to replace larger, manned platforms? What is the optimal mix of high-end, exquisite systems, and low-end, attritable assets? And how should the Pentagon, NATO, and our other allies invest resources to be best situated for potential conflicts? President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s planned purchase of U.S. Steel receives not one but two grievances. Chris complains about misinformed reactions to the tragic incidents on New Year’s Eve. Hearty attas to President-elect Donald Trump for suggesting that U.S. allies could build U.S. warships, to the National Security Archive at George Washington University, and to Finland for seizing the Russian ship suspected of cutting undersea cables (and for the Finns’ general seriousness on matters of national defense). 

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