Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best.

00:00 Introduction

01:13 US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting

08:43 The Rare Earths Truce

11:29 A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal

12:31 China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments

16:11 Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year

17:39 Deals With the Rest of the World

18:45 Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal

20:27 No Concessions on AI Chips Export

Is Russia close to an economic collapse? Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, to assess how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going.

00:00 Introduction

01:17 Current State of the Russian Economy

10:02 Budget Challenges and Military Spending

19:29 Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions

30:10 Economic Headwinds

32:20 Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to air power expert Justin Bronk about why it's a bad idea for Western militaries to follow Ukraine's lead and overly invest in production of small drones like FPVs and other loitering munitions. They also dive into best counter-drone strategies, as well as the implications of Ukraine's Operation SpiderWeb and Israel's forward deployed drones neutralizing Iranian air defenses during Operations Rising Lion for strategies to protect aircraft and air-defenses against such threats.

00:00 Introduction

00:28 Why NATO Should Not Follow Ukraine Into Overreliance on Drones

09:22 Small FPVs vs Other Drone Types

15:42 Best Strategy for Effective Anti Drone Defense

26:06 Would Ukraine Be Better Off Spending Money on Conventional Systems?

28:01 Orchestration of Combined Arms Warfare

29:11 Does Ukraine Need More FPVs or Artillery?

31:33 Can America Afford to Invest in Both Small Drones and Conventional Systems?

34:06 Options for Neutralizing Air Defenses

36:53 The State of Russian Air Defenses

38:53 How to Protect Air Forces Against Operation SpiderWeb-style drone tactics

44:35 Assessing the Efficacy of Ukrainian F-16s 

NATO Should Not Replace Traditional Firepower with ‘Drones’: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/nato-should-not-replace-traditional-firepower-drones

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vipin Narang, a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, a portfolio which includes U.S nuclear weapons employment strategy, about why we are now entering the New Nuclear Age and the urgent changes that the United States has to make to its nuclear deterrence posture and strategy. They also debate the utility of counterforce vs countervalue nuclear targeting approaches and how believable the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence is to allies.

00:00 Introduction

00:57 Israel-Iran War

11:47 CAT5 Hurricane of Nuclear Threats

13:50 Is China Preparing to Fight a Nuclear War?

18:04 Debating Counterforce vs. Countervalue Nuclear Targeting Strategies

24:32 Is Nuclear Extended Deterrence Believable to Allies?

40:02 Is Pakistan Building ICBMs to Target the United States?

42:44 Does America Need Mobile ICBM Launchers?

How to Survive the New Nuclear Age by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-survive-new-nuclear-age-narang-vaddi

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert, to assess the damage that has been inflicted upon the Iranian nuclear program over the course of the past 11 days and potential for reconstitution.

00:00 Introduction

00:49 Assessment of Damage to Each Part of the Iranian Nuclear Program

07:34 What is the Level of Difficulty of Reconstitution?

09:53 Did Iran Evacuate Fordow?

11:55 The Importance of the 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium issue

12:49 Where Is the New Secret Enrichment Facility?

13:58 What Are the Nonproliferation Lessons From This War?

16:26 Impact of the Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists

18:16 Capabilities of Iran's Ballistic Missiles

20:27 Origins of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Designs

22:46 Is There a Legitimate Need for Iran to Have Uranium Enrichment?

24:45 Was The War Worth It?

32:31 What Will Iran Do Next?

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Israeli Gen Amos Yadlin (Ret.), perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three Middle Eastern nuclear weapons programs: first, as an F-16 pilot in 1981 against Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, as Head of Military Intelligence in 2007 against Syrian nuclear reactor Al Kibar, and in various IDF roles for the last nearly 20 years planning the current operation against Iran.

00:00 Introduction

01:29 Strategic Objectives of the Operation Against Iran

07:30 How to Deal With Fordow Enrichment Facility

08:16 Shocking Success

11:20 Danger of Euphoria

14:08 Where Are the Iranian Proxies?

15:40 Threat to the Strait of Hormuz

18:00 Khamenei's Psychological State and Strategic Decisions

20:56 Likelihood of Regime Change

23:38 Implications for the Broader Middle East

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program and possibility of a new war, the chances of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kim Jong Un, and the nature of North Korea’s relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. Andrei also offers rare insights into daily life under the regime, its surveillance state, hackers and IT workers, political succession, and long-term foreign policy ambitions.

00:00 Introduction

01:02 Can Trump Get a Peace Deal Done With North Korea?

15:19 Does Kim Jong Un Need America as an Enemy?

18:36 Chances of a Second Korean War and Nuclear Weapons Use

22:58 China's Frustrations With North Korea

27:17 China's Concerns of Nuclear Proliferation Across Asia

29:49 Nature of Transactional Relationships Between North Korea and China/Russia

35:28 Iran-North Korea Relationship

40:16 Why Do North Korean Soldiers Commit Suicide Rather Than Surrender?

44:52 Life in North Korean GULAGs

47:04 The Intricacies of Societal Surveillance in North Korea

51:21 Technology Use and Intranet Access in North Korea

54:24 North Korean Hackers and IT Workers

01:02:40 Female Empowerment in North Korea

01:15:21 Does North Korea Have the World's Most Effective Foreign Policy?

Dmitri and Sergey's NYT article about the potential for a peace deal with North Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/opinion/us-north-korea-china-russia-axis.html

Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program.

They discuss:

- Putin's frustrations about limitations of nuclear blackmail and his responses to the ATACMS targeting decision by the Biden Administration

- What the new Russian nuclear doctrine means for World War III prospects

- What the Ukraine conflict teaches us about nuclear deterrence theory

- Putin's real redlines

- Implications of the Oreshik (RS 26) Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile against Ukraine

- Why ballistic missile notification regime is a GoodThingTM

- The resumption of the Iranian nuclear warhead design program - How to respond to the Chinese nuclear buildup

- How many nukes does the US need for comprehensive deterrence

Russian nuclear doctrine changes thread by Oleg Shakirov: https://x.com/shakirov2036/status/1858810939652370886