Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program and possibility of a new war, the chances of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kim Jong Un, and the nature of North Korea’s relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. Andrei also offers rare insights into daily life under the regime, its surveillance state, hackers and IT workers, political succession, and long-term foreign policy ambitions.

00:00 Introduction

01:02 Can Trump Get a Peace Deal Done With North Korea?

15:19 Does Kim Jong Un Need America as an Enemy?

18:36 Chances of a Second Korean War and Nuclear Weapons Use

22:58 China's Frustrations With North Korea

27:17 China's Concerns of Nuclear Proliferation Across Asia

29:49 Nature of Transactional Relationships Between North Korea and China/Russia

35:28 Iran-North Korea Relationship

40:16 Why Do North Korean Soldiers Commit Suicide Rather Than Surrender?

44:52 Life in North Korean GULAGs

47:04 The Intricacies of Societal Surveillance in North Korea

51:21 Technology Use and Intranet Access in North Korea

54:24 North Korean Hackers and IT Workers

01:02:40 Female Empowerment in North Korea

01:15:21 Does North Korea Have the World's Most Effective Foreign Policy?

Dmitri and Sergey's NYT article about the potential for a peace deal with North Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/opinion/us-north-korea-china-russia-axis.html

Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program.

They discuss:

- Putin's frustrations about limitations of nuclear blackmail and his responses to the ATACMS targeting decision by the Biden Administration

- What the new Russian nuclear doctrine means for World War III prospects

- What the Ukraine conflict teaches us about nuclear deterrence theory

- Putin's real redlines

- Implications of the Oreshik (RS 26) Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile against Ukraine

- Why ballistic missile notification regime is a GoodThingTM

- The resumption of the Iranian nuclear warhead design program - How to respond to the Chinese nuclear buildup

- How many nukes does the US need for comprehensive deterrence

Russian nuclear doctrine changes thread by Oleg Shakirov: https://x.com/shakirov2036/status/1858810939652370886

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) about the latest updates in the evolution of drone warfare on the battlefields in Ukraine.

They discuss:

- How Ground Unmanned Vehicles (GUVs) are being used in battle

- 3rd Generation FPV drones

- Quadcopter bombers

- Mass-market EW systems

- Fiber optics C2

- EW recon units

- Use of aerial drones for anti-drone/aircraft warfare

- Impact of Chinese export controls

- Thermite 'Dracarys' drones

- Mothership drones

- Long-range deep strike drones

- Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance drones

- How Starlink is giving Russia an advantage!

- How commercial satellite imagery of Ukrainian lands may be playing into Russia's hands

- Why the US and Ukrainian use-cases for drone warfare are so dramatically different

- Introduction of autonomy in unmanned systems

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Constantine Kalinovskiy (@Teoyaomiquu), a Ukrainian combat vet with friends currently in battle, about how the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve tactical surprise with their August 6th offensive into Russian Kursk oblast, the achievable objectives of this operation and the risks that it brings.

They discussed the achievements to date, the potential for holding newly captured Russian territory and the challenges that the Ukrainian forces currently face there.

Constantine also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, LibertyUkraine.org, is providing vital and life saving combat support engineering equipment like excavators and generators to Ukrainian troops.

After many months long wait, F-16s have finally arrived in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians likely to use them and what are the challenges and opportunities presented by the introduction of this new weapons platform?

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk,  Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at RUSI and and the editor of a just released book "The Air War in Ukraine."

They discussed why F-16s will not play a transformative role on the battlefield, why Ukraine still needs Swedish Gripens, the opportunities for the use of Harpoons on F-16s to target Black Sea Fleet, opportunities for integration of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, the growing danger presented by Russian surveillance drones penetrating deeper and deeper into Ukrainian territory which is driving the urgency for development of anti-UAV UAV solutions, PATRIOT battery performance so far in Ukraine and discussion on the longer-term future of air power and integration challenges of combat jets with unmanned loyal wingman systems.

Music: Zaporizhian March

Dmitri Alperovitch and his co-author Garrett Graff discuss their upcoming book “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century” and include an exclusive audiobook excerpt from the book that lays out in great detail how China is likely to go about its invasion of Taiwan.

In addition, Dmitri and Garrett discuss:

- Why they wrote this book

- What’s a stake in the potential conflict with China over Taiwan

- Dmitri’s battles against Chinese IP theft over the course of his career

- Why Taiwan matters to the United States

- Why America will not achieve chips independence from Taiwan for the foreseeable future

- Why Taiwan never fully belonged to China

- Timeline for potential invasion and why invasion is unlikely to take place in 2027

- Why we are in a Cold War II with China that is remarkably similar to Cold War I with the Soviet Union

- Strategy for victory in Cold War II

- How to deter an invasion of Taiwan

If you found this podcast interesting, please consider ordering the book from your favorite book stores or online at https://WorldOnTheBrink.com and writing a review!

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sergey Radchenko, one of the Cold War's preeminent historians, about the untold secrets of that period based on Sergey's unique access to recently declassified Soviet and Chinese archives.

They discussed China's role in causing Khrushchev to initiate the Cuban Missile Crisis, a huge Soviet intelligence failure that caused the Korean War and Brezhnev's attempts to prevent Nixon's downfall in Watergate.

Sergey and Dmitri also discussed their upcoming books, which are both publishing in the next few weeks, on Cold War I history and the history and strategy of Cold War II with China, respectively. They talked about what lessons the first conflict may offer for the second, whether it is possible to revive the detente strategy of the 1970s, and how America can achieve victory.

Dmitri Alperovitch's book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" publishes on April 30th (https://WorldOntheBrink.com).

Sergey Radchenko's book "To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power" publishes on May 30th (https://www.amazon.com/Run-World-Kremlins-Global-Power/dp/1108477356/).

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Bill Hennigan, a New York Times opinion writer currently publishing a series of articles called "At the Brink," focused on nuclear threats and the challenges our world faces in combating proliferation. They discussed the fears that the US intelligence community had in the fall of 2022 that the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine was estimated to be at 50/50 and how the US planned to respond to that outcome. Bill and Dmitri also debated the proposal to limit the power of the President to launch a first nuclear strike and discussed the destabilizing implication of the recent news that Russia may be seeking to put a nuclear weapon into space.

Please check out Dmitri's book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" which comes out on April 30th. https://worldonthebrink.com

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor for The Economist, about the changing nature of warfare and the impact of proliferation and affordability of precision munitions, sensor ubiquity and digital communications like Starlink. They discuss the still crucial importance of infantry mass and artillery ammunition in this revolution, the challenge presented by electronic warfare and its logistical needs, whether unmanned systems are truly offering a radically new capability or are cheap replications of existing systems like torpedoes and cruise missiles, whether hypersonic missiles are worth the cost and the high manpower requirements of unmanned platforms and cyber weapons.

Please check out Dmitri's upcoming book : "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2