Abkhazia stands at a critical juncture, caught between its historical dependence on Russia and the uncertain allure of reconciliation with Georgia. Long overshadowed by Moscow's influence, recent years have seen the territory's population increasingly frustrated with Russia's heavy-handed presence, just as Tbilisi tentatively begins exploring pathways to re-engagement. Could growing anti-Russian sentiment signal a geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus? Will Abkhazia tilt back toward Georgia, upsetting decades of frozen conflict dynamics? And why, despite mounting tensions and economic costs, does Moscow remain committed to maintaining its grip on this disputed strip of Black Sea coastline? To unpack these questions and understand the future of Abkhazia, we turn to our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:

- Laura Linderman (Central Asia-Caucasus Institute)

- Beka Bajelidze (Institute for War and Peace)

- Thomas de Waal (Carnegie Europe)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:49

PART II - 30:49

PART III - 1:00:15

Outro - 1:21:46

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The last few years have seen a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with Rwandan-backed militias advancing in North Kivu, Ugandan forces launching cross-border operations, and Western powers quietly increasing their presence in the region. What was once considered a forgotten conflict is now emerging as a new front in the global competition for influence, driven not just by security concerns, but by the region’s immense mineral wealth, critical for everything from electric vehicles to modern electronics.

This week, we sit down with our expert panel to unpack who actually controls eastern Congo, why this strip of land has become so strategically valuable to outside powers, and how the local conflict is fast becoming a global contest between rival blocs.

On the panel this week:

- Hugh Kinsella Cunningham (DRC Photojournalist)

- Alex Vines (Chatham House)

- Michael Rubin (AEI)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:30

PART II - 40:38

PART III - 1:02:51

Outro - 1:33:03

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Through one of our contacts in Russia, we have managed to acquire a packet of Russian Ministry of Defence documents smuggled out of Moscow. The packet pertains to a new weapons system that is about to be deployed to the battlefield, one that will catapult Russia forward in its artillery capabilities. To understand what this system is capable of and how much of a game-changer it is likely to be for the Russian forces, we brought on two key experts to dissect the documents and blueprints.

On the panel this week:

- Mark Galeotti (RUSI)

- Eric Gomez (Missile and Nuclear Weapons Expert)

Released April 1st, 2025.

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The last few months have seen major shifts in the balance of power in the far north, with the US making threats toward Greenland, Russia exerting pressure on Svalbard, and Arctic shipping routes, once seen as a counterweight to the Suez Canal, are now increasingly having their viability called into question. So as Greenland heads to the polls, the territory finds itself voting on far more than just a new legislature; instead deciding on the makeup of a future arctic flashpoint that could see NATO facing pressures from both the east and the west.

This week, we sit down with our expert panel to analyse how we arrived at this position, the economic factors most people overlook when discussing the Arctic, and how likely these geopolitical tensions are to escalate into conflict.

On the panel this week:

- Jennifer Spence (Harvard Belfer Center)

- Nicolas Jouan (RAND Europe)

- Sigbjørn Halsne (Norwegian Armed Forces)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:06

PART II - 28:54

PART III - 49:15

Outro - 1:19:54

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Timor-Leste stands at a crossroads, grappling with the legacies of Indonesian occupation, economic dependence on dwindling oil reserves, and the encroaching geopolitical pressures shaping its future. Once heralded as a success story of post-colonial independence, the country now faces mounting economic challenges, political stagnation, and an uncertain path toward ASEAN integration. Can Timor-Leste successfully diversify its economy before its oil wealth runs dry? Will its growing ties with China raise alarm bells in Canberra and Jakarta? And how do its historical struggles inform its current trajectory? We ask our panel of experts: 

On the panel this week:

- Michael Leach (Swinburne University)

- Parker Novak (Atlantic Council)

- Josh Kurlantzick (The Council on Foreign Relations)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 04:24

PART II - 27:03

PART III - 56:12

Outro - 1:08:38

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Many of the U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding programs are currently running over budget and behind schedule, raising serious concerns about the Navy's future operational strength and the broader capacity of U.S. industry to scale production in the event of a larger conflict. This situation is particularly troubling, given that the United States once held a dominant position in global shipbuilding. So how did the U.S. reach this position, and who is to blame? Is it the Navy, the shipbuilders, private capital, the Pentagon, or even Congress? To unpack these pressing questions, we bring in our panel of experts to analyse the root causes of this decline and explore what can be done to restore the United States’ shipbuilding capabilities.

On the panel this week: 

- John Konrad (GCaptain)

- Emma Salisbury (War on the Rocks)

- Matthew Funaiole (CSIS)

- Thomas Shugart (CNAS)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 04:04

PART II - 33:53

PART III - 1:02:57

PART IV - 1:22:12

Outro - 1:45:42

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As part of our wider project examining the armed forces of Central Asia, the research team sat down with experts from government, military, and academia. We brought together all of our findings and research and wargamed some of the region's most likely and plausible scenarios, not because we think war between these states is imminent, but because it is a useful way to gain better insights into how these militaries function and the challenges they would face. The format highlighted several key issues, including drivers such as the impact of lacking sufficient field trucks, unequal aerial capabilities, or the geography of the country forcing invading forces into a single narrow pocket, each of which severely limits the options available to any invading force.

Across all of our wargames, we selected three of the most interesting scenarios to examine here on The Red Line, exploring three key regional conflicts, the most likely triggers for those conflicts, and how prepared each of these states are for war against a peer rival. To guide us through the findings and their implications for defence dynamics in Central Asia, we are joined by this week's special guest for part two of our mini-series, The Armed Forces of Central Asia.

On the panel this week: 

• Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:57

PART II - 1:02:23

PART III - 1:45:30

Outro - 2:10:09

Read the Tajikistan Chapter of the Report here: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/

Check out the mapping project here: https://oxussociety.org/viz/military-units/

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The evolving relationship between Armenia and Russia has seen dramatic shifts in recent years, particularly in the wake of Armenia's devastating defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Once heavily reliant on Russian military support, Armenia now finds itself questioning the reliability of this partnership. As Russia grapples with its own military commitments in Ukraine and its shrinking influence in the South Caucasus, Armenia has begun to explore alternative alliances, deepening ties with countries like France and India. But with Russian troops still stationed in Armenia and economic dependencies persisting, can Armenia truly pivot away from Moscow's orbit? We ask our panel of experts about the complexities of Armenia's balancing act between historical alliances and new geopolitical realities.

On the panel this week:

- Oleysa Vartanyan (Caucasus Analyst)

- Laurence Broers (Chatham House)

- Thomas De Waal (Carnegie Europe)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 05:24

PART II - 27:36

PART III - 58:08

Outro - 1:21:38

Read the Armed Forces of Central Asia Report: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/

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Conscription is a complex and multifaceted issue, influencing not only a nation's defence capabilities but also its economy and political landscape. With countries as diverse as Denmark, to the DRC, from Taiwan to Tajikistan, and even Austria to Armenia, having all adopted conscription. However, as different as each of these nations are, each of them is now facing unique challenges, constraints, impacts and benefits from the practice. So what are the true economic advantages and drawbacks of conscription, should countries like the US, the UK and Germany be looking at its reimplementation, and can it serve as an effective deterrent in modern conflicts? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:

- Paul O'Neill (RUSI)

- Pvt. Gona (Conscript in the Finnish Army)

- Eric Crampton (New Zealand Initiative)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 05:51

PART 2 - 28:47

PART 3 - 43:13

Outro - 56:39

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Chinese private security companies (PSCs) are beginning to expand their influence in the global security market, with thousands of these companies now operating in over 40 countries. Despite legal restrictions preventing them from being armed, these firms are increasingly finding ways to circumvent such regulations. This raises critical questions: Will China leverage these companies to bypass international rules, engage in grey-zone combat, or establish footholds for future military bases abroad? We delve into these issues with our expert panel.

On the panel this week:

- Carl Peterson (Militant Wire)

- Nick Thompson (Anduril)

- Alessandro Arduino (King’s College London)

Intro - 00:00

PART 1 - 04:38

PART 2 - 30:11

PART 3 - 45:35

Outro - 59:02

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