Once hailed as a beacon of democratic reform in Southeast Asia, Myanmar has devolved into a fractured state defined by a brutal, multi-front civil war following the 2021 military coup. The Junta clings to power in the central cities through terror and forced conscription, while a patchwork of resistance forces controls the periphery but struggles with donor fatigue and ammunition shortages. Yet, following the shockwaves of Operation 1027 and the rise of a narcotics-and-scam-fueled war economy, the conflict has shifted. China, the region’s hesitant kingmaker, is now applying direct pressure on both sides to secure its strategic access to the Indian Ocean. With the country effectively split and neither side possessing the strength to deliver a knockout blow, the question remains: is Myanmar destined to fracture like Yugoslavia, or can a unified state still emerge from the ashes? Our panel of experts examines the stalled frontlines, Beijing’s evolving strategy, and the grim reality of who, if anyone, can actually govern the nation in 2026.

On the panel this week:

- Zachary Abuza (National Defence University)

- Derek Mitchell (CSIS)

- Jason Tower (GI-TOC) 

- Steve Ross (Stimson Center)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 02:15

PART II - 34:55

PART III - 1:01:52

PART IV - 1:15:09

Outro - 135:15

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