I start with a round-up of current news stories: the Witkoff-Kushner peace mission that is likely heading nowhere, Zelensky's apparent threat to civil aviation that was likely more psyop than serious, and the SCO summit in Bishkek that was likely more significant than either of the above. (And medieval counterfeiting, for good measure...)

In the second half, I look at Russia's drone strike on the SBU HQ in Kyiv and the signs of a SBU-GUR rivalry, driven by both politics and also the thriving criminal call centre fraud industry.

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Everyone keeps diagnosing Putin’s mood, not least given the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow. Putin is angry, he's frightened, he's desperate -- that seems to be the standard Western talking point these days, and hence the fear that he might do something dangerously escalatory.

But is he? Things might actually look rather more encouraging from his perspective. So, in this episode, I try and peer through the Kremlin's windows, to understand how he believes things are going, in war and potential peace.

Finally, I look at Nicole Grajewski's excellent new book, Russia and Iran. Partners in defiance, from Syria to Ukraine (Hurst, 2026) and what that may say not just about the Moscow-Tehran relationship, but also our understandings of the world.

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The war seems to be getting (even) nastier, in part perhaps - and this may be over-optimistic - as both sides seen an endgame almost in sight, as well as out of growing desperation on both sides. The desperation even extends to digging up Prince Dmitri Donskoi's bones for propaganda purposes.

Then again, in the second half this gives me an excuse to talk about a couple of archaeological stories that have no real political importance, but interested me...

The episode of the Peacemonger podcast I mentioned is here. The comments are, well, quite something.

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When the Kremlin changed its mind and decided to ban the opposition party Yabloko (Apple) from running in September's elections, it demonstrated its concern that this could become the new vessel of the 'coalition of the fed-up.' After all, this seeming no-hoper party was suddenly being boosted by a guerrilla meme campaign and looked as if it might even cross the 5% threshold to get into the Duma. This could not be allowed. The Kremlin is not frightened of Yabloko winning, it is frightened of people discovering one another and forming horizontal ties in a system that relies on atomisation and apathy.

From there, I look at The Successor, Mikhail Fishman’s major new biography of Boris Nemtsov, the opposition politician murdered in 2015, using it to explore the dilemmas of opposition politics under Putin: charisma versus organisation, symbols versus power, and why the 1990s still poison today’s reputations. This is also live argument splitting the exiled opposition and Western commentators: should the priority be sanctions and isolation to weaken the regime, or protecting Russians while trying to build a credible future political force? It’s dissident moral authority versus politician’s ambition, with the added warning that collapsing systems can usher in something worse.

The articles I mention are Nigel Gould-Davies's first in the Spectator, then Ilya Yashin's rebuttal in the Moscow Times, followed again by Gould-Davies here.

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Ukraine’s long-range campaign against Russia is no longer just about spectacular refinery fires. When Kyiv pivots towards softer targets like logistics hubs, it can hit morale, prices, and everyday life in ways that pure military targets do not. It is also a reminder of the innovation cycle in the war: Ukraine shifts tactics, Russia adapts, and both sides hunt for the next gap in air defences and the next pressure point that the public cannot ignore. What is the political intent behind these strikes, and how may Moscow respond?

In the second half, I look at the political battlefield ahead of State Duma elections. Putin suddenly tried to present himself as the caring tsar, parties fight for the grey vote, and the only credible liberal option, Yabloko, faces a squeeze. How far will the political technology go, and can a managed election still look credible during a real war?

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Zelensky sacks a defence minister, then removes his commander-in-chief, and suddenly the question is not “who is better?” but “who controls the politics of war?” 

I use this as an opportunity to explore the systemic warfighting capacities of Ukraine and Russia defined not so much in military but political terms: political focus, generating and motivating soldiers, and learning. Russia can concentrate resources and recruit with money longer than many expect, but morale, discipline, and selective adaptation bite hard when reforms threaten the regime’s control. Ukraine looks more politically contested, yet its civic autonomy and bottom-up innovation can translate into faster learning and stronger buy-in. Which matters more in the end, mass or legitimacy?

The books I discuss are:

Serhiy Kudelia, Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia's War on Ukraine (Oxford UP, 2025)

Edward Crowther, War in Ukraine, Vol. 1: Armed Formations of the Donetsk People’s Rep 2014-2022 (Helion, 2022)

Illya Sekirin, Rise of the Machines – Drone Warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War, edited by Andrew Simms (Helion, 2026) 

The articles I mention are:

Balász Jarábik, 'Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?,' Carnegie Politika, 24 July 2026

Fabrizio Minniti & Giangiuseppe Pili, ‘Russia’s Selective Adaptation: Command, Control and the Limits of Learning in War,' RUSI, 22 July 2026

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Putin is being pressed by some within the elite to call it quits and freeze the war on the current front line, by others to step up and try and impose a quick military solution. His natural impulse is to put off decisions, but Kyiv's campaign against Crimea may make that impossible. He seems determined to hold out for the last bit of the Donbas, so he has to escalate. With other options, from nuclear demonstration to stepping up the covert campaign in Europe not being viable, all he has is expanding the force in Ukraine, and that will require an unpopular and dangerous mobilisation. 

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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“Russia is run by the spooks” is a satisfying line, but it is also a lazy one. Despite talk of a 'Chekistocracy' run by the intelligence and security services, the FSB, SVR and GRU are better understood as competing institutional actors than as a single all-powerful caste pulling every lever in the Kremlin. 

In that context, "power" itself is a complex phenomenon, and I outline a framework of six different kinds of power: the ability to dictate policy, the court politics of access and trust, the quiet art of resistance, the deeper pull of conceptual dominance through briefings and narratives, the pre-emptive authority that makes leaders avoid a fight, and the transactional coalitions that get things done below the apex. 

In the second part, I look at three excellent journalistic accounts of covert operations:

• Shaun Walker, The Illegals. Russia’s Most Audacious Spies And The Plot To Infiltrate The West (Profile Books, 2025)
• Drew Hinshaw & Joe Parkinson, Swap, A Secret History Of The New Cold War (Harpercollins, 2025)
• Bojan Pancevski, The Nord Stream Conspiracy (Hutchinson, 2026)

The SSEES event I mention is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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A collection of stories to discuss, but all of which in one way or another come down to endgames: the death of Sergei Ivanov, the "drone siege" of Crimea, the debate over the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, and a shell-shocked soldier threatening mutiny. How far, to put it fancifully, does what feels like the increasing the emergence of all kinds of false prophets, end is nigh doomsayers, cultists and rabblerousers tell us something about the mood in Russia?

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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A 74-year-old port magnate known in the underworld as Antikvar is arrested by an FSB team, hauled into Moscow’s Basmanny Court, and suddenly the ghosts of St Petersburg’s wild 1990s feel very alive. Ilya Traber's career took him from from antiques monopolies to oil terminals, in the murky interface between “authoritative business” and outright organised crime. And much of it thanks to his relationship with Putin in and since the 1990s.

Traber's name has run through the bloody annals of 'Banditsky Peterbug,' so why act now? My theory: he overstepped the bounds of the new rules, at a time when serious figures within the FSB, including First Deputy Director Korolev, had reason to go after him.

But this would have come to nothing had Traber's old partner Putin not given the green light. When the decision is made at the top, even yesterday’s “untouchables” can become expendable.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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