In Moscow's Shadows

A fat, smug bear sits at the heart of Russia’s politics right now and it is not just a party logo. The State Duma election has handed United Russia - whose logo is the bear - its biggest ever share of seats. Of course, the vote was rigged, but what does Putin do with this mandate now? A quick look at the state of the Ukraine war (where it's heading to be a nasty winter) then leads to a few words about the threat the Russian bear poses Europe: not a direct military one, but increased and potentially risky hybrid war operations.

Then in the second half, a detour into Russia’s surge in sometimes fatal bear encounters. Is this thanks to climate change and shrinking habitats, or - and here I may be indulging my own whimsies here - considering the powerful role of the bear in Russian folklore, a Sign?

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In Russia’s elections, the ballot box is no longer a measure of consent but rather a tool for manufacturing it. It's only two days into the three days of elections to the State Duma, but I catch up on the latest and consider what to look for, before addressing the growing concern/hysteria about the Russian threat to the West (no, Putin didn't try to kill Boris Johnson), mobilisation and the BRICS summit.

In the second half, I use Dmitry Medvedev’s striking line that Russia is “either a great power or nothing at all” to unpack how status, insecurity and strategic autonomy shape Russian foreign policy, alongside insights from Hanna Notte’s excellent book We Shall Outlast Them (Norton, 2026). Russia is changing, and "War Putinism" is building something that is often ugly and hardly always efficient, but in some ways is closer to the Putin/Medvedev vision of a "great power."

Some links:

• Russian Election Monitor is here.
• The Reading Russia Right event is here
• Medvedev's interview in Vedomosti is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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I start with a round-up of current news stories: the Witkoff-Kushner peace mission that is likely heading nowhere, Zelensky's apparent threat to civil aviation that was likely more psyop than serious, and the SCO summit in Bishkek that was likely more significant than either of the above. (And medieval counterfeiting, for good measure...)

In the second half, I look at Russia's drone strike on the SBU HQ in Kyiv and the signs of a SBU-GUR rivalry, driven by both politics and also the thriving criminal call centre fraud industry.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Everyone keeps diagnosing Putin’s mood, not least given the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow. Putin is angry, he's frightened, he's desperate -- that seems to be the standard Western talking point these days, and hence the fear that he might do something dangerously escalatory.

But is he? Things might actually look rather more encouraging from his perspective. So, in this episode, I try and peer through the Kremlin's windows, to understand how he believes things are going, in war and potential peace.

Finally, I look at Nicole Grajewski's excellent new book, Russia and Iran. Partners in defiance, from Syria to Ukraine (Hurst, 2026) and what that may say not just about the Moscow-Tehran relationship, but also our understandings of the world.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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The war seems to be getting (even) nastier, in part perhaps - and this may be over-optimistic - as both sides seen an endgame almost in sight, as well as out of growing desperation on both sides. The desperation even extends to digging up Prince Dmitri Donskoi's bones for propaganda purposes.

Then again, in the second half this gives me an excuse to talk about a couple of archaeological stories that have no real political importance, but interested me...

The episode of the Peacemonger podcast I mentioned is here. The comments are, well, quite something.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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When the Kremlin changed its mind and decided to ban the opposition party Yabloko (Apple) from running in September's elections, it demonstrated its concern that this could become the new vessel of the 'coalition of the fed-up.' After all, this seeming no-hoper party was suddenly being boosted by a guerrilla meme campaign and looked as if it might even cross the 5% threshold to get into the Duma. This could not be allowed. The Kremlin is not frightened of Yabloko winning, it is frightened of people discovering one another and forming horizontal ties in a system that relies on atomisation and apathy.

From there, I look at The Successor, Mikhail Fishman’s major new biography of Boris Nemtsov, the opposition politician murdered in 2015, using it to explore the dilemmas of opposition politics under Putin: charisma versus organisation, symbols versus power, and why the 1990s still poison today’s reputations. This is also live argument splitting the exiled opposition and Western commentators: should the priority be sanctions and isolation to weaken the regime, or protecting Russians while trying to build a credible future political force? It’s dissident moral authority versus politician’s ambition, with the added warning that collapsing systems can usher in something worse.

The articles I mention are Nigel Gould-Davies's first in the Spectator, then Ilya Yashin's rebuttal in the Moscow Times, followed again by Gould-Davies here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Ukraine’s long-range campaign against Russia is no longer just about spectacular refinery fires. When Kyiv pivots towards softer targets like logistics hubs, it can hit morale, prices, and everyday life in ways that pure military targets do not. It is also a reminder of the innovation cycle in the war: Ukraine shifts tactics, Russia adapts, and both sides hunt for the next gap in air defences and the next pressure point that the public cannot ignore. What is the political intent behind these strikes, and how may Moscow respond?

In the second half, I look at the political battlefield ahead of State Duma elections. Putin suddenly tried to present himself as the caring tsar, parties fight for the grey vote, and the only credible liberal option, Yabloko, faces a squeeze. How far will the political technology go, and can a managed election still look credible during a real war?

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Zelensky sacks a defence minister, then removes his commander-in-chief, and suddenly the question is not “who is better?” but “who controls the politics of war?” 

I use this as an opportunity to explore the systemic warfighting capacities of Ukraine and Russia defined not so much in military but political terms: political focus, generating and motivating soldiers, and learning. Russia can concentrate resources and recruit with money longer than many expect, but morale, discipline, and selective adaptation bite hard when reforms threaten the regime’s control. Ukraine looks more politically contested, yet its civic autonomy and bottom-up innovation can translate into faster learning and stronger buy-in. Which matters more in the end, mass or legitimacy?

The books I discuss are:

Serhiy Kudelia, Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia's War on Ukraine (Oxford UP, 2025)

Edward Crowther, War in Ukraine, Vol. 1: Armed Formations of the Donetsk People’s Rep 2014-2022 (Helion, 2022)

Illya Sekirin, Rise of the Machines – Drone Warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War, edited by Andrew Simms (Helion, 2026) 

The articles I mention are:

Balász Jarábik, 'Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?,' Carnegie Politika, 24 July 2026

Fabrizio Minniti & Giangiuseppe Pili, ‘Russia’s Selective Adaptation: Command, Control and the Limits of Learning in War,' RUSI, 22 July 2026

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Putin is being pressed by some within the elite to call it quits and freeze the war on the current front line, by others to step up and try and impose a quick military solution. His natural impulse is to put off decisions, but Kyiv's campaign against Crimea may make that impossible. He seems determined to hold out for the last bit of the Donbas, so he has to escalate. With other options, from nuclear demonstration to stepping up the covert campaign in Europe not being viable, all he has is expanding the force in Ukraine, and that will require an unpopular and dangerous mobilisation. 

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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“Russia is run by the spooks” is a satisfying line, but it is also a lazy one. Despite talk of a 'Chekistocracy' run by the intelligence and security services, the FSB, SVR and GRU are better understood as competing institutional actors than as a single all-powerful caste pulling every lever in the Kremlin. 

In that context, "power" itself is a complex phenomenon, and I outline a framework of six different kinds of power: the ability to dictate policy, the court politics of access and trust, the quiet art of resistance, the deeper pull of conceptual dominance through briefings and narratives, the pre-emptive authority that makes leaders avoid a fight, and the transactional coalitions that get things done below the apex. 

In the second part, I look at three excellent journalistic accounts of covert operations:

• Shaun Walker, The Illegals. Russia’s Most Audacious Spies And The Plot To Infiltrate The West (Profile Books, 2025)
• Drew Hinshaw & Joe Parkinson, Swap, A Secret History Of The New Cold War (Harpercollins, 2025)
• Bojan Pancevski, The Nord Stream Conspiracy (Hutchinson, 2026)

The SSEES event I mention is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

Support the show