In Moscow's Shadows

Russia's 'hybrid war' on Europe seems to be hotting up - but can one confidently blame Moscow for the recent spate of hoax bomb threats? The first instinct is to say “it must be Russia” and it very probably is, but we need to understand what we can honestly claim, what  we merely suspect, and we can respond when proof is partial by design.

This is about the language we use to assess the threat, but encoded within that is also a guide to European policy options. Likewise, Putin’s recurring use of the term “strategic defeat” also offers a guide both to his own fears and also his strategic communications -- and thus how the West can respond to that, too.

On the two assets I discuss:

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SCARS OF DONBAS can be entered through the dedicated page at https://scarsofdonbas.org/in-moscows-shadows and the peace survey I mentioned is here.

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This week's conversation between Finland’s Alexander Stubb, Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre and Vladimir Putin certainly ruffled some feathers. Setting aside the did-he-didn't-he fluff about whether Putin delivered another of his historical lectures (anonymous sources say so, but I'm willing to believe the on-the-record denials from Stubb and Støre), it's a useful start (and no more than that) to European diplomacy with agency. Europe cannot outsource dialogue with Moscow to to the White House and then act surprised when it lacks leverage. 

Meanwhile, it's looking at a rare piece of good news from a ghastly conflict: the temporary Oleshki ceasefire and humanitarian mission. Even a small ceasefire, properly observed by both Russia and Ukraine, matters. It shows what can be achieved through unexpected intermediaries and professional coordination, and why dismissing every contact as “just propaganda” risks missing the building blocks that any future settlement will require.

(PS: originally, I managed to get Kharkiv and Kherson mixed up! Has been edited to correct)

After the break, I shift to Russian domestic politics and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation: election setbacks, protest voting, budget posturing, and the widening gap between a pro-Kremlin leadership and a more restless grassroots. I look at inequality arguments, the convenient “bad boyars” alibi, and the growing pressure on regional activists who take opposition too seriously.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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A peace deal is easy to sketch and brutally hard to land. The latest reported shape of US-led talks offers some promise, especially with the talk of genuinely solid security guarantees for Ukraine and European involvement, although the last portion of the Donbas remains a seemingly-insuperable roadblock. Nonetheless, at least the announced ceasefire around Oleshky sounds like a little good news amidst the misery.

From there, I turn to the part of modern conflict that gets blamed for almost everything: information operations. Yes, Moscow runs disinformation and political influence campaigns, but should we respond in kind? Striking back sounds satisfying, but it comes with legal, moral, and practical costs and the biggest danger is the feedback loop: bluster creates bluster, trust at home erodes, and miscalculation becomes more likely even when nobody is looking for a shooting war.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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A mid-sized gang in Chelyabinsk should not be front page news, and that is exactly why it is so useful. When the Artakovsky criminal group is rolled up, the details point to bigger trends in the Russian underworld: how gangs recruit, Chechen criminal 'franchising,' the AUE threat, how they govern themselves, and how the state is learning to prosecute them with sharper tools.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Donald Trump's diesel deal is, of course, in effect a birthday present for Putin, explained by The Donald’s transactional self-interest and hunger for a headline before the midterms, not baroque theories about hidden loyalties. Even if not a single barrel of diesel ever ships, though, this is undoubtedly good for Moscow. Maybe some revenue (if need be, Putin can starve domestic markets to export), but above all a political gain. Washington is again at odds with an angry Kyiv, while Europe is again left looking clueless and weak.

In part, Europe may have been wrong-footed by its failure to consider brutal questions of national interest. Why does it depend so much on comfort-blanket mantras about the Russia-Ukraine war? To a degree, it is the power of groupthink, and this brings me to the Leonid Ragozin case in Latvia and my wider worry about democracies sliding towards silencing dissent instead of winning arguments.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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The annual shindig of the Valdai Discussion Club is one of those Kremlin set pieces that invites two equally lazy reactions: treat it as sacred insight into Vladimir Putin’s mind, or wave it away as pure Russian propaganda. It's a bit of both, but does give an insight into Russia's changing foreign policy priorities, as much from who is invited as what is said.

(And a side-note on the questioning of Ian Proud, host of the Peacemonger podcast, on his return to the UK.)

Of course, the keynote is Putin's address and the Q&A hosted by Fyodor Lukyanov, and while much of this year's was familiar and formulaic, there were some points that made listening to this lengthy monologue of value, from how hinting at strikes on Western defence enterprises may be a new information weapon to his signals on ending the war in Ukraine: Putin’s narrowing focus on the remaining slice of Donbas, talk of neutrality, hints about cultural and language rights, and the bid to frame any settlement inside a wider European security architecture. 

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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A fat, smug bear sits at the heart of Russia’s politics right now and it is not just a party logo. The State Duma election has handed United Russia - whose logo is the bear - its biggest ever share of seats. Of course, the vote was rigged, but what does Putin do with this mandate now? A quick look at the state of the Ukraine war (where it's heading to be a nasty winter) then leads to a few words about the threat the Russian bear poses Europe: not a direct military one, but increased and potentially risky hybrid war operations.

Then in the second half, a detour into Russia’s surge in sometimes fatal bear encounters. Is this thanks to climate change and shrinking habitats, or - and here I may be indulging my own whimsies here - considering the powerful role of the bear in Russian folklore, a Sign?

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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In Russia’s elections, the ballot box is no longer a measure of consent but rather a tool for manufacturing it. It's only two days into the three days of elections to the State Duma, but I catch up on the latest and consider what to look for, before addressing the growing concern/hysteria about the Russian threat to the West (no, Putin didn't try to kill Boris Johnson), mobilisation and the BRICS summit.

In the second half, I use Dmitry Medvedev’s striking line that Russia is “either a great power or nothing at all” to unpack how status, insecurity and strategic autonomy shape Russian foreign policy, alongside insights from Hanna Notte’s excellent book We Shall Outlast Them (Norton, 2026). Russia is changing, and "War Putinism" is building something that is often ugly and hardly always efficient, but in some ways is closer to the Putin/Medvedev vision of a "great power."

Some links:

• Russian Election Monitor is here.
• The Reading Russia Right event is here
• Medvedev's interview in Vedomosti is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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I start with a round-up of current news stories: the Witkoff-Kushner peace mission that is likely heading nowhere, Zelensky's apparent threat to civil aviation that was likely more psyop than serious, and the SCO summit in Bishkek that was likely more significant than either of the above. (And medieval counterfeiting, for good measure...)

In the second half, I look at Russia's drone strike on the SBU HQ in Kyiv and the signs of a SBU-GUR rivalry, driven by both politics and also the thriving criminal call centre fraud industry.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Everyone keeps diagnosing Putin’s mood, not least given the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow. Putin is angry, he's frightened, he's desperate -- that seems to be the standard Western talking point these days, and hence the fear that he might do something dangerously escalatory.

But is he? Things might actually look rather more encouraging from his perspective. So, in this episode, I try and peer through the Kremlin's windows, to understand how he believes things are going, in war and potential peace.

Finally, I look at Nicole Grajewski's excellent new book, Russia and Iran. Partners in defiance, from Syria to Ukraine (Hurst, 2026) and what that may say not just about the Moscow-Tehran relationship, but also our understandings of the world.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

Support the show