A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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An IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, needs must...

In the first part, I look at recent development around Ukraine. Then, in the second, I look at the recent 'electoral wargame' held by Conducttr and spin off that more broadly to consider the challenges of 'resiliency' in a political sense (rather than infrastructure, etc)

Robert Hall's book is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Negotiations (of a sort) in Istanbul: a real engagement or just a piece of theatre? The answer, of course, is a bit of both.

And what can one read into the elevation of Colonel General Mordvichev as the new commander of Russian Ground Forces?

The link to the Conducttr wargame I mention is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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The 200th episode! Hard to believe.

After briefly assessing Putin's late-night offer of talks with Kyiv, I dig into the Victory Day parade and what it means, especially from an international angle, and how it was part of a love letter to Xi Jinping.

The events I mentioned next week in Prague are at CEVRO University, the Institute of International Relations and the Prague Book Festival, with the launch of Zrozeni z Války, the Czech translation of my book Forged in War.

The forthcoming events page on my blog is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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General Ivan Popov, once hailed as one of the heroes and rising stars of the Russian army, has just been sentenced to 5 years in a general regime penal colony on what seem questionable charges. What brought down this 'fighting general' -- and what does it tell us about late Putinism and the potential nationalist critique of the regime?

The sign-up page for the Conducttr info-political wargame I mentioned is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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In the first half, I consider the latest twists in the saga of the US-pushed 'ceasefire' plan. Has Trump has an epiphany in the Vatican, or will Kyiv still face a choice of evils?

In the second, I draw a line between the gunning down of a mobster in Tbilisi with the twilight of Putinism, through leaking roofs and the likelihood of mob wars.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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An intemperate recent interview from Foreign Minister Lavrov, at which he warned that 'fifth columnists' within the elite wanted to hand Russia to the West on a platter, is typical of a new tome of populist nationalism that got me wondering. Putin's Russia is often called 'fascist' but this is a label of dubious accuracy. Are there hints that Russia could turn fascist? I still think this will not happen, but it is something worth exploring.

The Bell, by the way, is here. 

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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In the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former FSB general Sergei Beseda, 'the Baron.'

In the second half, for Cosmonautics Day, I look at the ailing Russian space programme.

The FPRI report by Pavel Luzin I mention is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media!

The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here.

The RUSI commentary on the OSCE is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Comrades! 

Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more...

The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest the war on Ukraine’ is here.

The National Guard report I mention, Putin's Praetorians: The Evolving Role Of The National Guard And Their Capacity To Control The Streets , is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

Support the show