A demilitarised zone that invites armoured cars. A referendum that can’t be fairly run. A €210 billion pot that solves today’s bills but complicates tomorrow’s peace. 

We start with shuttle diplomacy and the hard edges of a potential DMZ in Donetsk. On paper it pauses the fight; in practice Rosgvardiya blurs policing and militarisation, turning “demilitarised” into a loophole big enough for armour. We then map the constitutional and moral traps around wartime elections or referendums, where occupied voters, blocked monitors and legal grey zones collide with Kyiv’s need to navigate Washington without capitulating.

From there, we track Europe’s move to indefinitely freeze Russian sovereign assets and the push to spend them on Ukraine’s budget. It feels just and efficient, but invites Russian expropriations at home, lawfare against Euroclear, and counter‑seizures abroad. It also spends tomorrow’s reconstruction funds during the war, betting that weary voters will keep paying later. Meanwhile, Moscow counts manpower, energy pressure and US politics more than ledgers, so the deterrent effect may be modest.

The Ben Aris article I mention is at: https://www.intellinews.com/commnet-the-eu-s-reparation-loan-vote-needs-to-fail-416078/?source=russia 

Finally, to a Paris restaurant where a row between Garry Kasparov and Vladimir Kara‑Murza exposed a deeper rift inside the exile opposition. PACE’s platform and its Berlin Declaration have elevated some factions while sidelining Navalny’s network, creating gatekeepers and fresh grievances. The result is predictable: public spats, claims of capture by donors, and propaganda gifts to the Kremlin. The uncomfortable truth remains that Russia’s future will be authored inside Russia; exiles matter most when they support rather than splinter the constituencies that still exist at home.

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There's not all that much to say about the Ukraine peace negotiations as delegations head to the USA and Russia, but I cover a few issues, from Trump's 'businessified' approach to geopolitics to the departures of both Andrii Yermak and Dmitri Kozak.

In the second half, I use Russian folklore, and the arrays of terrifying threats in the deep woods and the potentially terrifying spirits of hearth and home as a parable for Russian strategic culture. Honestly.

The forthcoming book I mention is Sophie Pinkham's The Oak and the Larch

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms of what it is not.

In the second, I spin off Susanna Rabow-Edling's excellent book, The First Russian Revolution. The Decembrist Revolt of 1825 (Reaktion Books) to consider some of the modern resonances.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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From where's Lavrov to whether it's time for Europe to speak to Putin directly, some questions with wider significance raised during my recent hectic trip to Finland. And, in the second half, how should we think about the likely fall of Pokrovsk and what to make of Ukraine's Midas Case corruption scandal -- and how it's being covered in Russia?

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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We need to talk about post-Putin. It's fruitless at this point to try and come up with names of potential successors -- but maybe we can identify potential archetypes, the kinds of people who might succeed him, depending on the perceived needs of the day.

The Julian Waller article I mention is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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The forthcoming release of the updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN gives me an excuse to consider whether and how Putin has changed since I originally wrote the book in 2018. My conclusion: not so much a different Putin as 'Putin squared.'

In the second half, I discuss and riff off Russia’s Turkish Wars. The Tsarist Army and the Balkan Peoples in the Nineteenth Century by Victor Taki, published by University of Toronto Press.

Sign-up for the Wikistrat webinar I mentioned on 5 November is here.

The Morris/Tickle/Pierce podcast is Russia Unfiltered.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy?

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be getting a new head. What does this mean for the internal struggles to replace the ailing current director, Bortnikov? Is 'crown prince' Sergei Korolev finally going to take his place? And what might this mean?

My previous look at Korolev was in In Moscow's Shadows 171: The invisible and invidious Sergei Korolev, perhaps the next head of the FSB (20 Oct. 2024) and I branded Nikolai Patrushev 'the most dangerous man in Russia' way, way back in In Moscow's Shadows 6: The Most Dangerous Man in Russia (14 June 2020).

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics, as everyone oversimplifies a complex world. 

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. Maybe, then, a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders...

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. 

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