NatSec Matters

Michael is joined by Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute Dr. April Longley Alley to explain the sudden return to full-scale war in Yemen following a lightning Houthi offensive that seized the strategic Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint. In response to the Saudi-backed counteroffensive, the Houthis have unleashed an escalatory barrage of cross-border missile and drone strikes targeting critical Saudi oil infrastructure and Riyadh Airport. Dr. Alley explores why the Houthis act as autonomous partners of Tehran rather than mere proxies, leveraging asymmetric warfare to demand a maximalist "victor's peace" from Riyadh. She also analyzes Washington's reluctance to launch offensive airstrikes, the fractures between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over southern separatists, and why lasting deterrence requires political power-sharing rather than military force alone.

Michael is joined by Ann E. Kowalewski, Vice President at Beacon Global Strategies and Senior Fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, to discuss the outcomes and regional fallout of the latest summit between President Donald Trump and People's Republic of China (PRC) Leader Xi Jinping. Ann breaks down the core dynamic she describes as "spectacle and small potatoes"—where both leaders project an image of managed bilateral stability while quietly executing competitive economic hardening behind the scenes. She also explores how Beijing prepared for a second Trump term by sharpening its economic retaliation playbook—from critical mineral export controls to the "unreliable entity" list—and examines why symbolic fentanyl tariffs and reciprocal trade frameworks have not addressed deep-seated industrial subsidies. Ann analyzes why slow-walking Taiwan arms sale packages and softening rhetoric on China weaken deterrence across the Taiwan Strait, the strategic calculations driving Beijing's timeline, and why the burgeoning "Axis of Upheaval"—linking China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—demands a fundamental rethink of Western sanctions enforcement and economic statecraft.

Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and former senior CIA officer Norman Roule join Michael to assess the maritime blockade of Iran and rising friction in the Strait of Hormuz . They analyze how unprecedented economic strangulation is pressuring Tehran while testing the U.S. Navy's regional operations and global posture . Mark, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explains how extended deployments are creating a readiness crisis that could jeopardize U.S. deterrence in late-decade flashpoints . Norman, a non-resident senior adviser with CSIS, details the regional impact of recent Houthi strikes . The three explore European allied inaction and the growing revisionist axis linking Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran . Finally, they examine what is next for two other critical geopolitical priorities: Taiwan and Ukraine .

Michael is joined by Holly Dagres, the Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and editor of The Iranist, for a unique look at the internal dynamics shaping Iran amid ongoing war and economic strangulation. Holly rewinds to the December and January anti-regime uprisings that preceded the conflict, detailing the unprecedented state-led massacre of protesters and the ensuing collapse of the Iranian rial. She explains why the clerical regime's survival has radicalized a new generation of IRGC hardliners, the psychological blow dealt to ordinary Iranians by strikes on energy infrastructure, and the growing sense of abandonment felt across the country after unfulfilled promises of Western support. Holly also assesses the sustainability of Washington's naval blockade, Tehran's escalatory brinkmanship in the Persian Gulf, and what it will actually take for the Iranian public to risk returning to the streets. Additional Resources:Abdorrahman Boroumand Center Center for Human Rights in Iran

Michael is joined by Peter Rough, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute, to dissect the stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the latest interventions by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He also assesses Ukraine's persistent deep-strike campaign against Russian refineries, mounting Russian casualty rates, and the internal frictions behind Kyiv's high-level military leadership shakeup. Finally, Peter evaluates the growing threat of Russian gray-zone sabotage across Europe and examines whether allied aid and sanctions can hold the line ahead of a difficult winter.

Let us know what geopolitical topic we should focus on next, get in touch at [email protected].

Michael is joined by Clay Seigle, Managing Director of Beacon Global Strategies' newly announced energy practice and former James R. Schlesinger Chair at CSIS, for an expert briefing on volatile global energy markets. Clay breaks down the economic dynamics underpinning $90-a-barrel oil, explaining how the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, presidential messaging, and severe global refining bottlenecks are driving price fluctuations. He also analyzes the impact of Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian fuel throughput and examines the broader implications of tightening global diesel markets. Turning to the Western Hemisphere, Clay assesses the long-term feasibility and legal complexities of new U.S. investment frameworks for upgrading Venezuela's heavy sour crude resources. Finally, he highlights critical flashpoints to watch, including commercial shipping risks across the Red Sea.

Michael is joined by Yaakov Katz, former Editor-in-Chief of The Jerusalem Post and author of While Israel Slept: How Hamas Surprised the Most Powerful Military in the Middle East, for an assessment of the Israeli perspective following months of joint strikes on Iran with the U.S. Yaakov explains the political impact of the war in Israel and the origins of the widening diplomatic daylight between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Washington. He also previews the upcoming Israeli elections, analyzing Netanyahu's fight for political survival against a surging opposition led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot. Finally, Yaakov evaluates the operational stalemate in Gaza, conditions surrounding the Board of Peace's 15-point disarmament plan, and the enduring challenges to long-term stability.

Michael is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security and former National Security Council official, for a strategic tour of the world's most urgent flashpoints. Richard explores the dangerous ripple effects of the Iran conflict across the Middle East, including regional powers hedging toward mutual defense pacts and the strategic costs of an open-ended naval commitment. He also evaluates recent friction in the U.S.–South Korea alliance, the pitfalls of personality-driven diplomacy with North Korea, and how military redeployments to the Middle East have left the U.S. with zero aircraft carriers currently in the Western Pacific. Finally, he and Michael examine the protracted battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, the ambiguity surrounding Washington's endgame with Moscow, and the deepening operational ties within the "Axis of Upheaval"—China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran—urging a coordinated strategy to defend frontline states without falling into regional distractions.

Michael is joined by Richard Nephew, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and former NSC Director for Iran, to discuss the uncertain and deteriorating situation in the Persian Gulf. Richard analyzes Tehran's recent escalation of demands—from demanding the full removal of the U.S. blockade and sanctions to seeking $300 billion in reparations. He also explores the internal consolidation of power within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) following recent decapitation strikes, detailing how a narrower, unipolar hardline faction now views aggressive deterrence as the clear path forward. Richard also breaks down global energy friction points, including severe price spreads in refined products like diesel, the limitations of covert commercial ship escorting, and the dangerous race between global economic endurance and the U.S. blockade.