On this November 21st episode, we examine the government’s first employment report since the shutdown. The headline payroll figures were strong, but nearly every detail beneath them was troubling. Most of the job growth came from three sectors that are more vulnerable to economic swings and that offer lower compensation, raising questions about the quality and durability of recent hiring. The unemployment rate also edged up to 4.4 percent, adding yet another data point to the fading labor market.

We then turn to the market’s poor reaction to Nvidia’s blowout earnings release. Although Nvidia continues to benefit from vast investment plans in artificial intelligence, the earnings release revealed that it may be the last to be affected if those plans are scaled back. With firms such as ChatGPT burning through enormous amounts of cash, it is far from certain that investors will remain patient long enough for their more ambitious visions to be realized. The result is a market struggling to price the boundary between promise and excess in a technology boom that may already be nearing its top.