We trimmed the portfolio’s risk profile earlier this week,though the fund remains fully invested in equities. In March and April 2025, we shifted the portfolio toward higher-beta sectors, reducing positions in defensive areas such as healthcare while increasing allocations to more volatile technology stocks. At the time, we likened the maneuver to hoisting a spinnaker to catch an additional gust of market momentum. The move proved highly profitable. However, recent data has altered the calculus. A succession of weaker economic releases has diminished the prospective reward, while this week’s signs of labor-market softness have further underscored the case for caution. Although the FederalReserve may yet avert a recession, the slowdown is palpable. Thus, we are “dousing the spinnaker” and positioning for a more unsettled, and potentially more volatile, course ahead.

We discuss Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the housing market, and the implications of President Trump's potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

On August 21st, we sat down with Dan Roberts to record this episode—just a day before Jerome Powell took to the stage at Jackson Hole. We wagered he would sound dovish. He did. The Fed chair even raised the specter of wage-price spirals, a subject we had dissected ourselves only hours earlier. Our conversation ranges from the fragility of credit markets to the tell-tale canaries in the coal mine that may yet shape monetary policy. They are surely among the concerns weighing on Mr. Powell as he calibrates his next move. Enjoy!

In this episode, we feature our first guest who was the perfect first to the show. Dan Roberts, PhD was an economist with the Ronald Reagan Administration in the 1980s, and more recently, the head of Global Fixed Income at MacKay Shields, where he was the portfolio manager for the largest macro-oriented high yield strategy in the world. He also happens to be Mike's Dad. In this episode, Mike and Dan have a father-son chat on the the latest inflation figures, the current tension between inflation and growth in the economy, and what we believe lies ahead in the markets . Enjoy!

This week, we discuss the negative revisions to payrolls, higher student loan delinquencies, and latest GDP figures, and how the glut of negative news is impacting our market views.

In Episode 49, we discuss recent housing data pointing to a deteriorating outlook.

We discuss the recent CPI and PPI releases, lower universal tariff threats, and red flags in the Beige Book, housing market, and credit market.

This week we chat about mixed jobs numbers out for May and June and what the Fed Minutes tell us about their likely future actions.

This episode we talk about the US equity market recovery vs Europe and Asia. We also go into inflation numbers released this week and other consumer spending metrics over the last few months.

This week we chat about May inflation numbers, consumer confidence improving, and the interesting anomaly in Israel's strike on Iran.