Mind the Macro

This week, we examine rising strains in subprime credit, an end of quarter market rally that may say more about flows than fundamentals, and a deteriorating situation in the Middle East, along with our normal overview of macroeconomic releases. Delinquencies in subprime debt have climbed to their highest level in over a decade. Yet the system is not as exposed as it once was. Subprime balances now account for roughly half the share of total debt seen before the Global Financial Crisis, suggesting a more contained, though still notable, pocket of stress. Equity markets, meanwhile, finished the quarter with surprising strength on March 31. The move looked less like a reassessment of economic prospects and more like the mechanical force of pension rebalancing at quarter end. In other words, flows rather than fundamentals. Geopolitics adds another layer of uncertainty. Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with the potential to reverberate through energy markets and inflation expectations at an already fragile moment for the global economy. As a note, this episode was recorded on April 1 and does not include the employment report released on April 3. We will return to that data, and its implications, in our next discussion.

This week turns on a series of disquieting signals across markets, from unusual moves in interest rate futures to mounting strains in private credit and renewed geopolitical risk surrounding Kharg Island, all against the backdrop of a sharp decline in equities. Uncertainty has come to dominate both bond and equity markets, each retreating markedly over the course of the week. Interest rate futures have shifted to reflect a higher likelihood of further tightening by the Federal Reserve, a view that is not without logic given recent inflation dynamics. Yet the same markets assign virtually no probability to rate cuts before October, an omission that suggests investors may be systematically underestimating the risk of a downturn in which policy easing would be the more likely response. At the same time, a growing number of private credit vehicles have moved to limit redemptions. While this step is often defended as a means of preventing destabilizing runs, one that may simply displace rather than extinguish the pressure, investors are likely looking elsewhere in their portfolios to raise liquidity and reduce risk, potentially transmitting stress into more liquid asset classes. Layered on top is the prospect of an escalation around Kharg Island, a development that would carry material implications for energy markets and, by extension, inflation. Taken together, these strands point to a market that is beginning, perhaps belatedly, to confront the fragility of the economic foundations on which recent optimism has rested.

This week’s discussion surveys a more troubling turn in the data, as rising producer prices, falling new home sales, and a sharp steepening of the yield curve combine to reinforce a narrative of stagflation and a possible recession. Producer prices in February surprised to the upside and point to firmer core PCE in the near term. Inflationary pressures look set to intensify further in March, as higher oil prices tied to the conflict in Iran begin to feed through the data. Housing offers little reassurance. New home sales in January fell 17 percent from December, while sales of speculative homes dropped to levels below those seen at the depths of the financial crisis. Prices are now beginning to soften, suggesting that demand is faltering even as supply adjusts. Against this backdrop, Chair Powell struck a cautious tone at the March FOMC press conference, emphasizing elevated uncertainty while continuing to prioritize inflation within the Federal Reserve’s mandate. Markets have taken notice. Expectations for rate cuts have faded, with some investors now contemplating the possibility of higher policy rates in 2026. The bond market has moved accordingly. Longer term Treasury yields have risen to their highest levels in six months, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead. In our view, a combination of rising long term rates and further firmness in short term policy would risk placing additional strain on an already fragile economy and a labor market showing signs of stress.

This week, we discuss the war in Iran and a run of discouraging economic data, including falling payrolls, rising inflation and a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. The most dramatic market development was in oil. Prices surged to $120 per barrel early Monday before plunging to $90 by Monday afternoon, the largest decline on record. The fall followed comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict would soon end. Yet the administration later walked back those remarks, leaving oil trading near $100 by the end of the week. The turbulence in energy markets arrives at an awkward moment for the economy. Signs of stagflation appear to be intensifying. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, marking the third decline in the past five months. At the same time inflation remains stubborn. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, rose 0.4 percent month over month in January after a similar increase in December. With energy prices rising sharply in recent weeks, the March reading is likely to come in even higher. The growth picture is weakening as well. Fourth quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial estimate of 1.4 percent, a revision that underscores the increasingly fragile state of the economy. Taken together, the combination of softer growth, falling employment, and persistent inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans to begin cutting interest rates and tip the economy into recession.

This week we examine the implications of the war in Iran and the rising uncertainty now weighing on financial markets. Since our previous episode, titled “Inflation Intensifies Amid Credit Cracks,” the inflation outlook has deteriorated sharply as the conflict has pushed energy prices higher. In the near term, stronger inflation now appears almost unavoidable, arriving at a moment when the economic backdrop was already fragile. We also look to history for guidance on the risks building in private credit. In particular, we revisit the collapse of Executive Life Insurance in the late nineteen eighties and early nineteen nineties, when heavy exposure to high yield debt ultimately proved fatal. The episode offers a useful lens through which to consider how stress in private credit might unfold and how losses could spread into other parts of the financial system. Finally, we reflect on the unusually uncertain environment facing investors. Will the conflict prove brief or prolonged? No one yet knows. What is clear is that periods of geopolitical uncertainty tend to unsettle markets. For now, that anxiety is showing up in prices, with all three major equity indices in the United States negative for the year.

On this week’s episode, we examine signs that inflationary pressures are proving more stubborn than many had hoped. January’s Producer Price Index surprised to the upside, with headline prices rising 0.5 per cent over the month and the measure excluding food and energy increasing 0.8 per cent. We discuss why these pressures are likely to filter into the forthcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures data, particularly in goods, and what that means for the broader inflation narrative. We also turn to markets, where Nvidia delivered earnings and revenues ahead of expectations, yet saw its shares fall sharply. The reaction, we argue, reflects mounting unease about the scale and sustainability of capital expenditure plans among the largest cloud providers. Data centers require enormous amounts of electricity, and questions about power availability raise doubts about whether projected demand for advanced chips can be fully realized. Finally, we explore the collapse of Market Financial Solutions in London. Following recent failures in other credit focused firms, the episode highlights the risks embedded in years of generous liquidity and looser underwriting standards. As financial conditions tighten, the vulnerabilities created during the boom are becoming harder to ignore.

This week the stagflation theme refused to fade. On Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. Headline and core PCE rose 2.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively. More troubling than the levels was the recent momentum. Inflation has firmed over the past three months, an unwelcome development that further complicates the Fed’s path forward. The same release cycle brought a softer than expected Q4 2025 GDP report. Headline growth registered just 1.4 per cent, unsettling markets. Consumption cooled from recent quarters, but the reaction to the top line number appears excessive. The government shutdown alone shaved nearly a full percentage point from growth, distorting the underlying signal. Taken together, the data reinforce a familiar and uncomfortable mix: slower activity alongside renewed price pressures. For central bankers, it is the most awkward of combinations.

This week we examine the reassuring headlines in the employment and inflation reports, set against weakening retail sales and housing activity. On the surface, payroll growth and a softer CPI print suggested resilience. A closer look told a more fragile story. Nearly all net payroll gains were concentrated in health care and social services, leaving the broader labor market treading water. Inflation, meanwhile, cooled largely because of sharp month over month declines in energy and used vehicle prices. Strip out those volatile components and price pressures appear far less benign. Taken together, the data resemble a one legged stool. And investors seem to be taking note, as equities notched another negative week.

This week, we examine signs of economic cooling and a more demanding market backdrop. Private labor market reports from ADP, Revelio Labs, and Challenger, Gray and Christmas point to slowing hiring and softer demand for workers. Motor vehicle sales also weakened, and we argue the slowdown reflects more than poor weather, with a slowing consumer playing a larger role. Finally, we review recent earnings in the technology sector. While positive surprises remain common, markets have often reacted negatively. At today’s elevated valuations, investors appear far less willing to reward results that merely meet or slightly beat expectations.

This week, we address a broad set of developments shaping the macro landscape: Japan’s government bond strains, the weakening dollar, the state of the housing market, rising inflation risks, a fall in the consumer savings rate, and the key takeaways from the January FOMC press conference. We also revisit the latest GDP report, highlighting a notable anomaly - an outsized contribution from gold exports in the third quarter - that we argued was unlikely to persist. That view was promptly borne out. This morning’s release of the Census Bureau’s International Trade in Goods and Services for November showed a sharp decline in gold exports and a widening trade deficit. As in prior episodes, our outlook for the economy and equity markets remains firmly negative.