Mind the Macro

Markets Catch On to the One Legged Stools


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This week we examine the reassuring headlines in the employment and inflation reports, set against weakening retail sales and housing activity. On the surface, payroll growth and a softer CPI print suggested resilience. A closer look told a more fragile story. Nearly all net payroll gains were concentrated in health care and social services, leaving the broader labor market treading water. Inflation, meanwhile, cooled largely because of sharp month over month declines in energy and used vehicle prices. Strip out those volatile components and price pressures appear far less benign. Taken together, the data resemble a one legged stool. And investors seem to be taking note, as equities notched another negative week.

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Mind the MacroBy Michael Roberts and Jeff Baldwin