This week, we examine a run of key labor market releases alongside the latest GDP and productivity data. The Employment Situation report showed nonfarm payroll growth coming in below expectations, capping off the weakest year for job creation since 2020 and the weakest non-recessionary year since 2003. While much of the commentary celebrated the headline GDP figure, we were left with more questions than answers. Net exports is typically a modest swing factor but it accounted for more than a third of real GDP growth. Most of the remaining contribution came from personal consumption expenditures, yet that growth was narrowly concentrated in just four subsectors, several of which appear to have been estimated in ways that depart from historical practice. In our view, the jury is still out on the underlying strength of demand. Productivity also surprised to the upside, but here too caution is warranted. Given productivity’s reliance on GDP in its calculation, any uncertainty around output necessarily casts doubt on the apparent strength of the productivity gains.