David Doyle says a 25bps is largely baked in and wouldn't move the needle. Instead, says the Dot Plot (or Summary of Economic Projections) would be viewed as a more significant market-moving item. He says a 50bps rate cut is certainly possible with Trump appointee Stephen Miran joining the Fed for the September meeting. David adds that it could be "tricky" to expect the Dot Plot to move to a dovish direction in 2025, but says 2026 could be set up for more rate cuts.

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