On Investing

Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin open with the latest inflation data, where a hotter-than-expected core CPI reading raises questions about the Federal Reserve’s next moves. They discuss the broadening of inflation pressures, the jump in Treasury yields, and why investors may need to remain focused on quality as higher rates pressure more interest-rate-sensitive companies. Liz Ann also looks ahead to earnings season, with particular attention on whether companies can justify massive AI-related capital spending through productivity and returns.

Collin then speaks with TCW Chief Investment Officer Bryan Whalen about the unprecedented wave of spending on AI infrastructure and data centers. Whalen explains how hyperscalers are increasingly tapping the corporate bond market to finance that buildout, creating potentially attractive opportunities in their unsecured debt but also new risks in complex data-center financing structures. His central concern isn't whether AI will be transformative, but whether investors are being adequately compensated for the possibility that adoption, economics, or the path of the build-out unfolds differently than markets expect.

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. 

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets.

High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer’s continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be more sensitive to interest rate changes than other fixed income investments. They are subject to extension risk, where borrowers extend the duration of their mortgages as interest rates rise, and prepayment risk, where borrowers pay off their mortgages earlier as interest rates fall. These risks may reduce returns.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions.

The Bloomberg US High Yield Caa and Above Index  measures USD-denominated, fixed-rate, high-yield corporate bonds rated at least Caa3.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

A hyperscaler is a large-scale cloud service provider or technology company that operates massive, globally distributed data center infrastructure to deliver computing, storage, and networking services.

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This week’s episode connects two of the biggest themes driving markets today: rising bond yields and a rapidly evolving labor market.

Collin Martin and Liz Ann Sonders discuss why higher Treasury yields matter far beyond the bond market. They explain how rising yields affect mortgage rates, borrowing costs, housing affordability, and stock market leadership. While higher rates create challenges for interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities, as well as lower-quality companies with significant debt burdens, they also create attractive opportunities for fixed income investors.

The featured interview is with ADP Research Chief Economist Nela Richardson, who offers a detailed look at the U.S. labor market through ADP's payroll data. Richardson explains why ADP's employment data can differ from government job reports, discusses emerging wage trends, and introduces ADP's new Pay Insights research. She argues that inflation's lasting impact on purchasing power helps explain weak consumer sentiment even as economic growth remains resilient. The discussion also explores manufacturing, labor shortages, overtime trends, job-switching premiums, and how demographic shifts are reshaping workforce dynamics.

The conversation concludes with a deep dive into artificial intelligence and employment. Richardson shares research suggesting that AI may be reducing opportunities for some younger workers in AI-exposed fields while enhancing productivity and employment prospects for more experienced workers. Despite concerns about disruption, she remains optimistic that a combination of technology adoption and skilled workers can drive the next wave of productivity growth, much as previous technological revolutions did.

You can read the ADP National Employment Report that Nela and Liz Ann discuss at http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer's continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Negative correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.

NERP is the National Employment Report Pulse from ADP: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week’s episode explores the growing tension between resilient economic growth, cooling inflation data, and rising interest rates. Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin discuss the recent flattening of the Treasury yield curve, the latest inflation and GDP reports, and what higher yields mean for stocks and bonds. While inflation data showed encouraging signs of moderation, both Collin and Liz Ann note that risks remain, particularly from higher energy costs and the inflationary effects of AI-related investment spending.

The conversation then shifts to an interview with Vanda Research co-founder Eric Liu, who explains how investor positioning and capital flows can provide valuable clues about market direction over short-term horizons. Liu discusses the growing influence of retail investors, quantitative funds, and prediction markets, arguing that traditional ways of analyzing markets have become less useful as market leadership and participant behavior evolve. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and higher bond yields, he sees a supportive backdrop for equities due to neutral positioning, reduced crowding in markets, and the resilience stocks have shown in the face of recent shocks. The discussion also covers retail trading trends, emerging markets, market concentration, and why large-cap technology stocks remain the dominant market leadership group.

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week’s upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases. 

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

Investors in mutual funds and/or ETFs should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus via 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

The book(s) Superforecasters is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Schwab has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Inverse correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This episode focuses on what rising interest rates are really signaling, why stock market strength may be masking weakness beneath the surface, and how investors should think about bond allocations in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Liz Ann Sonders argues that the relationship between stocks and bonds has fundamentally changed from the "Great Moderation" era. Rather than rising bond yields reflecting stronger growth and supporting stocks, today's environment looks more like an earlier inflation-driven period where higher yields can put pressure on equity valuations. Despite the S&P 500 sitting near record highs, she notes that market leadership remains highly concentrated in a small group of mega-cap technology stocks. Beneath the surface, market breadth has deteriorated significantly, with relatively few stocks making new highs and many experiencing bear market-like drawdowns. Her takeaway for investors is to avoid becoming overly concentrated, maintaining long-term time horizons, and recognize that headline index performance tells only part of the story.

Collin explains that the recent rise in Treasury yields has been relatively orderly and is not primarily being driven by a surge in the term premium or investor fears about Treasury demand. Instead, yields are reflecting a resilient economy, sticky inflation, and expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening.

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week’s upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases. 

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

Money market funds are neither insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of an investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification, asset allocation, and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Negative correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin analyze the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike. They unpack why the Fed acted now, arguing that inflation remains too persistent despite a resilient economy, strong labor market, and robust consumer spending. They discuss the Fed's updated projections, which suggest inflation may not return to its 2% target until 2028 and imply the possibility of additional rate hikes ahead.

The conversation then turns to market implications. Stocks sold off following the announcement as Treasury yields climbed above 5%, reflecting expectations that monetary policy may remain tighter for longer. Liz Ann highlights that while some inflation pressures are supply-driven, there are also demand-side forces at work, including AI-related capital spending and continued economic strength. Collin and Liz Ann emphasize that higher rates today could ultimately help reduce inflation and bring down long-term borrowing costs, even if the path is bumpy for markets in the near term.

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week’s upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases. 

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

A hyperscaler is a large-scale cloud service provider that offers vast computing, storage, and networking resources through a distributed infrastructure of interconnected servers and software.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders reflects on four decades on Wall Street, sharing timeless investing lessons that remain relevant in today’s market environment. Drawing on wisdom from legendary investors and classic books, she highlights the importance of humility, adaptability, and emotional discipline.

Liz Ann and Collin then turn to current market developments, including rising Treasury yields, increased Treasury buyback operations, and the growing competition for investor dollars between bonds and equities. Collin explains why bond yields have been attracting more attention and what upcoming policy decisions from the Treasury and Federal Reserve could mean for markets.

Then Liz Ann interviews noted housing market expert Ivy Zelman, executive vice president and co-founder of Zelman & Associates. While she does not see housing signaling an imminent recession, Zelman describes a market that continues to struggle with affordability challenges, elevated mortgage rates, and pronounced regional differences. She explores longer-term demographic trends that could reshape housing demand, including slowing household formation, lower population growth, and the rise of multigenerational living. The conversation concludes with a look at the strongest and weakest housing markets today and a discussion of why demographic shifts may become one of the most important, yet underappreciated, economic stories of the coming decades.

You can read Liz Ann’s article on reflections from her career here: “Songs of Experience: Reminiscences of a Strategist.”

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. 

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see ​Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

The books A Random Walk Down Wall Street, The Intelligent Investor, The Money Game, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, and Against the Gods are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.

Correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech struck a more hawkish tone than investors expected, increasing the likelihood of another rate hike as the Fed remains focused on persistent inflation. Collin Martin and Liz Ann Sonders discuss what that means for markets, why the speed and purpose of rate hikes matter more than any specific interest-rate level, and how investors may be entering a new era of higher inflation volatility, shifting stock-bond relationships, and increased market sensitivity to economic data. Finally, they look ahead to the indicators and data that could matter most to investors in the coming week.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

A hyperscaler is a large-scale cloud service provider that offers vast computing, storage, and networking resources through a distributed infrastructure of interconnected servers and software.

Negative correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This episode of On Investing looks at a market environment increasingly shaped by persistent inflation, rising long-term Treasury yields, fiscal concerns, and renewed trade tensions. Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin begin by discussing the latest inflation data, which continues to show price pressures well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. While wage growth is not driving inflation, they highlight several other forces keeping inflation elevated, including energy prices, tariffs, and the massive investment required to support the AI boom.

The conversation then turns to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to influence long-term interest rates after yields surged. Collin argues that Bessent's actions are understandable given concerns about mortgage rates and borrowing costs, but he views them as a short-term response to a much deeper issue: the nation's growing debt burden and ongoing fiscal deficits. Both hosts suggest that attempts to manage yields address the symptoms rather than the underlying causes. They also explore the potential tension this creates with the Federal Reserve, which may prefer tighter financial conditions to combat inflation.

The episode closes with a look ahead to the Fed's Jackson Hole conference, upcoming labor market reports, purchasing manager surveys, and other economic data that could shape expectations for both growth and Fed policy.

You can read the report Liz Ann mentions here: "Great Moderation Era: Drift(ing) Away."

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. 

Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses.

Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

Negative correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of On Investing, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine the recent surge in global bond yields and what it means for investors. Collin explains that long-term Treasury yields have risen due to a combination of the Federal Reserve's hawkish posture, elevated uncertainty premiums, fiscal concerns, and a global move higher in interest rates. He emphasizes that inflation expectations remain relatively well-behaved, suggesting the rise in yields is less about fears of runaway inflation and more about uncertainty, government borrowing needs, and a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. 

Liz Ann discusses how higher yields affect stocks, noting that growth-oriented sectors, real estate, and utilities are particularly sensitive to rising rates. She also argues that investors may be operating in a more volatile "Temperamental Era," where inflation and bond yields play a larger role in driving equity market performance than they did during the decades-long "Great Moderation." 

Then, Liz Ann interviews former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who argues that the Federal Reserve risks falling behind the curve by tolerating inflation near 3% rather than returning it to its 2% target. Bullard shares his views on monetary policy, AI's potential impact on productivity, geopolitical risks, financial markets, and the evolving economic landscape. 

Finally, Liz Ann and Collin provide a preview of upcoming economic indicators and data releases, including the Fed's preferred inflation measure, housing data, and consumer sentiment surveys.

You can read the report Liz Ann mentions here: “Great Moderation Era: Drift(ing) Away.”

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. 

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

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Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin begin this episode by analyzing the powerful role earnings are playing in driving the U.S. stock market higher and what that means for investors. Liz Ann highlights that S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking around 51% for the second quarter, an unusually strong pace outside of a post-recession recovery. Collin explains why Schwab expects a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, with short- and longer-term Treasury yields likely remaining elevated as the economy stays resilient and inflation remains above the Fed's target.

Then Collin sits down with former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Dr. Richard Clarida. They discuss how the Fed thinks about inflation, labor markets, supply shocks, productivity, and AI. Clarida argues that policymakers are trying to determine whether today's inflation pressures are temporary or indicative of a higher underlying trend. He also discusses the transition to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, potential changes to Fed communications, and why AI could be inflationary in the near term but ultimately disinflationary through improved productivity over the next several years.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. 

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Currencies are speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. 

Diversification, rebalancing, and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions 

ISM refers to the Institute for Supply Management.

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