All eyes were on the Fed in the first half of 2024, but with core PCE holding steady and no rate cuts, how did the other parts of the economy and the markets fare? In this midyear episode, Schwab experts look ahead to the second half of 2024 to consider what investors might expect from the U.S. stock market, the global markets, and policy and politics in Washington D.C.
First, Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon discuss the current trends and bifurcations in the equity market. They highlight the significant spread between large-cap and small-cap performance, with the S&P 500® outperforming the Russell 2000. They also discuss the divergence within large-cap stocks, particularly in the growth trio of tech, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors. The conversation emphasizes the concentration of performance in a small number of major drivers, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. They also touch on the bifurcation between index-level gains and weaker member-level performance in the NASDAQ. The conversation concludes by noting the relationship between market bifurcations and broader economic trends.
Next, Liz Ann interviews Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab's chief global strategist. The conversation covers the global economic outlook, China's market performance, central bank policy, geopolitical risk, election risks, and international allocation and diversification. Jeff discusses the recovery in the global manufacturing sector, China's stock market performance, central bank rate cuts, geopolitical developments, and the importance of international diversification.
Finally, Kathy Jones interviews Mike Townsend, Schwab's managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs and the host of the WashingtonWise podcast. They discuss the legislative agenda for the second half of the year, the upcoming presidential election, the regulatory agenda, and the battle for control of Congress.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.
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The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.
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Small cap investments are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories.
International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.
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Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.
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The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a survey-based indicator of the economic health of the global manufacturing sector. The PMI index includes the major indicators of: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.
The MSCI EAFE Equal Weighted Index includes the same constituents as the MSCI EAFE Index (large and mid-cap securities from Developed Markets countries around the world excluding the US and Canada), with an alternative weighting scheme where at each quarterly rebalance date, all index constituents are weighted equally.
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