Dr. Howard Smith Reports

Vidcast: https://youtu.be/-rdbcwd4MlM

Efforts to stem the spread of CoVid19 have been successful in China.  The measures include: entertainment venues closed; public gatherings canceled; intra-city transit, mass and personal, halted; travel to and from the city prohibited;  and entire city shutdown and lockdown.  

Chinese cities that proactively employed similar measures before a first case report, enjoyed 37% fewer cases in the first week after that case report.  The most effective measures were stopping intra-city transit and closure of public entertainment and gathering.

Transmission Control Efforts: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.20019844v3.full.pdf

https://gizmodo.com/china-orders-mandatory-coronavirus-checks-in-wuhan-and-1841498598

#covid19 #epidemic #pandemic #coronavirus

Vidcast: https://youtu.be/-rdbcwd4MlM

Efforts to stem the spread of CoVid19 have been successful in China.  The measures include: entertainment venues closed; public gatherings canceled; intra-city transit, mass and personal, halted; travel to and from the city prohibited;  and entire city shutdown and lockdown.  

Chinese cities that proactively employed similar measures before a first case report, enjoyed 37% fewer cases in the first week after that case report.  The most effective measures were stopping intra-city transit and closure of public entertainment and gathering.

Transmission Control Efforts: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.20019844v3.full.pdf

https://gizmodo.com/china-orders-mandatory-coronavirus-checks-in-wuhan-and-1841498598

#covid19 #epidemic #pandemic #coronavirus

Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/Q9a4NQc35xI

According to pre-published data online, as of late February there are 75 registered studies of CoVid19 disease underway.  97% are headed by Chinese organizations.  Only 11 trials have begun patient recruitment.  Trials include those testing Western medicine, Eastern medicine, and combinations.  

Two already initiated studies focus on the anti-viral nucleotide analog remdesivir: one involving those with mild/moderate disease and the other on those with severe disease.  In each 60 patients were treated with active agent and 60 were control receiving conventional supportive therapy only.  Studies are expected to end on 4/27/2020.  The expectation that this drug will help is based on test tube results that show it has a marked anti-viral effect.  

Other studies employing Western medicine are testing various other anti-viral agents alone and in combination.  Once more information about them is available, I will bring it to you.

Clinical trials: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029611v1.full.pdf

#covid19 #coronavirus #epidemic #pandemic

Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/Q9a4NQc35xI

According to pre-published data online, as of late February there are 75 registered studies of CoVid19 disease underway.  97% are headed by Chinese organizations.  Only 11 trials have begun patient recruitment.  Trials include those testing Western medicine, Eastern medicine, and combinations.  

Two already initiated studies focus on the anti-viral nucleotide analog remdesivir: one involving those with mild/moderate disease and the other on those with severe disease.  In each 60 patients were treated with active agent and 60 were control receiving conventional supportive therapy only.  Studies are expected to end on 4/27/2020.  The expectation that this drug will help is based on test tube results that show it has a marked anti-viral effect.  

Other studies employing Western medicine are testing various other anti-viral agents alone and in combination.  Once more information about them is available, I will bring it to you.

Clinical trials: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029611v1.full.pdf

#covid19 #coronavirus #epidemic #pandemic

Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/81G-oRa44pU

The CoVid19 virus is moderately contagious. The CoVid19 reproductive number, number of vulnerable  persons expected to be infected from a single infected person, is 2 -3.  This number may be as high as nearly 7.  In comparison, the number for measles is 12-18, diphtheria  6-7, HIV 2-5, the flu 2-3 and Ebola 1.5-2.5.  

The incubation period is 2-14 days with a 5-6 day average.  The cases in each affected area double every 2 days.  The institution of travel and mass gathering restrictions has had a profound positive impact on the reproductive number and viral spread according to unpublished data on the MedRxiv site.

You can track the spread of CoVid19 around the world and through the US on the excellent Johns Hopkins CVid19 web page:

Johns Hopkins Live Coronavirus Stats: http://coronaviruslivestats.com

Reproductive rate of CoVid19: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

Incubation period: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027474v1

#covid19 #coronavirus #epidemic #pandemic

Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/81G-oRa44pU

The CoVid19 virus is moderately contagious. The CoVid19 reproductive number, number of vulnerable  persons expected to be infected from a single infected person, is 2 -3.  This number may be as high as nearly 7.  In comparison, the number for measles is 12-18, diphtheria  6-7, HIV 2-5, the flu 2-3 and Ebola 1.5-2.5.  

The incubation period is 2-14 days with a 5-6 day average.  The cases in each affected area double every 2 days.  The institution of travel and mass gathering restrictions has had a profound positive impact on the reproductive number and viral spread according to unpublished data on the MedRxiv site.

You can track the spread of CoVid19 around the world and through the US on the excellent Johns Hopkins CVid19 web page:

Johns Hopkins Live Coronavirus Stats: http://coronaviruslivestats.com

Reproductive rate of CoVid19: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

Incubation period: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027474v1

#covid19 #coronavirus #epidemic #pandemic

Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/Nz60NienuxM

Chinese mathematicians studying the CoVid19 disease dynamics predict that the hardest hit area, Wuhan, will see new cases trail off in April.  That’s a full 4 months after the beginning of disease transmission.  Their online, as yet unpublished data predicts, that for less hard hit Beijing and Shanghai, cases will cease about now in early March.  That’s about 3 months from the onset.  CoVid19 will decline in remainder of China by mid-March, that’s about 2 months from the beginning.  

So once CoVid19 arrives in a region, it will be a 4 month threat.  To be on the safe side, double that for elective travel plans if you are in a CoVid19-vulnerable group due to age or health.

Length of epidemic:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023465v1.full.pdf

#covid19 #coronavirus #epidemic #pandemic

Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/Nz60NienuxM

Chinese mathematicians studying the CoVid19 disease dynamics predict that the hardest hit area, Wuhan, will see new cases trail off in April.  That’s a full 4 months after the beginning of disease transmission.  Their online, as yet unpublished data predicts, that for less hard hit Beijing and Shanghai, cases will cease about now in early March.  That’s about 3 months from the onset.  CoVid19 will decline in remainder of China by mid-March, that’s about 2 months from the beginning.  

So once CoVid19 arrives in a region, it will be a 4 month threat.  To be on the safe side, double that for elective travel plans if you are in a CoVid19-vulnerable group due to age or health.

Length of epidemic:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023465v1.full.pdf

#covid19 #coronavirus #epidemic #pandemic

Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/AlG6nsoVV5Y

If you completed your childhood tetanus shot series, the old DPT and the more recent DTap, you are protected for life against tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis or whooping cough.  Infectious disease researchers at the Oregon Health and Science University just published their analysis of World Health Organization data comparing illness in countries that do or do not recommend adult booster vaccinations.

The crunched numbers covering more than 11 billion person-years failed to show any reduction in tetanus or diphtheria in those populations that received vaccine boosters every 5 to 20 years.  It appears that childhood vaccinations, if completed, stimulate sufficient immune memory for a lifetime of protection. 

Ariel M Slifka, Byung Park, Lina Gao, Mark K Slifka, Incidence of Tetanus and Diphtheria in Relation to Adult Vaccination Schedules, Clinical Infectious Diseases, , ciaa017, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa017

#tetanus #diphtheria #dpt #dtap #boosters

Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/AlG6nsoVV5Y

If you completed your childhood tetanus shot series, the old DPT and the more recent DTap, you are protected for life against tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis or whooping cough.  Infectious disease researchers at the Oregon Health and Science University just published their analysis of World Health Organization data comparing illness in countries that do or do not recommend adult booster vaccinations.

The crunched numbers covering more than 11 billion person-years failed to show any reduction in tetanus or diphtheria in those populations that received vaccine boosters every 5 to 20 years.  It appears that childhood vaccinations, if completed, stimulate sufficient immune memory for a lifetime of protection. 

Ariel M Slifka, Byung Park, Lina Gao, Mark K Slifka, Incidence of Tetanus and Diphtheria in Relation to Adult Vaccination Schedules, Clinical Infectious Diseases, , ciaa017, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa017

#tetanus #diphtheria #dpt #dtap #boosters