In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Emily Chenevert discuss the recent mid-year ⁠housing statistics for June⁠, focusing on more detailed granular data. They emphasize the importance of understanding these nuances to better navigate the current housing market and help clients make informed decisions. Dr. Knapp provides insights into the areas within the MSA where home prices have seen the most significant changes, highlighting both the declines near the city center and increases in more distant zip codes.

Dr. Knapp also discusses the varying affordability of different zip codes within Travis, Williamson, and Hayes counties, noting that more affordable areas tend to have faster-moving properties due to higher demand from first-time buyers. The conversation shifts to buyer financing methods, where conventional loans dominate, and explores the impact of interest rates on different financing options. Despite higher mortgage rates, alternative financing forms like seller financing remain rare.

Finally, the discussion touches on open houses, their frequency, and their effectiveness in different price ranges. The importance of new construction in the market is acknowledged, with builders increasingly using MLS to market their properties due to higher interest rates. The episode concludes with an invitation for listeners to attend the July 23 ⁠Market Data Lab⁠ session with Dr. Knapp to gain deeper insights and discuss market-specific questions.

Download an episode transcript: ⁠https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/07/DIH-7-16-24.pdf⁠

Links Mentioned

⁠June 2024 Central Texas Housing Report⁠ https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

⁠Market Data Lab with Dr. Knapp – July 23⁠  ⁠https://www.abor.com/class/market-data-lab-6⁠

⁠2024 International Homebuyers Survey⁠ https://www.abor.com/intlsurvey

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Emily Chenevert discuss the recent mid-year housing statistics for June, focusing on more detailed granular data. They emphasize the importance of understanding these nuances to better navigate the current housing market and help clients make informed decisions. Dr. Knapp provides insights into the areas within the MSA where home prices have seen the most significant changes, highlighting both the declines near the city center and increases in more distant zip codes.

Dr. Knapp also discusses the varying affordability of different zip codes within Travis, Williamson, and Hayes counties, noting that more affordable areas tend to have faster-moving properties due to higher demand from first-time buyers. The conversation shifts to buyer financing methods, where conventional loans dominate, and explores the impact of interest rates on different financing options. Despite higher mortgage rates, alternative financing forms like seller financing remain rare.

Finally, the discussion touches on open houses, their frequency, and their effectiveness in different price ranges. The importance of new construction in the market is acknowledged, with builders increasingly using MLS to market their properties due to higher interest rates. The episode concludes with an invitation for listeners to attend the July 23 Market Data Lab session with Dr. Knapp to gain deeper insights and discuss market-specific questions.

Download an episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/07/DIH-7-16-24.pdf

Links Mentioned

June 2024 Central Texas Housing Report https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Market Data Lab with Dr. Knapp – July 23  https://www.abor.com/class/market-data-lab-6

2024 International Homebuyers Survey https://www.abor.com/intlsurvey

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Emily Chenevert delve into the upcoming June housing statistics. They highlight a significant expected decline in home sales by 15-20% year-over-year, while median sales prices have remained relatively stable, only dropping about 5%. This discrepancy raises questions about whether this sales drop is an anomaly or a trend for the rest of the year, especially given the increased interest rates and their impact on buying power.

Dr. Knapp explains that despite more consistent mortgage rates in 2024, there was a noticeable rise in April from 6.8% to 7.2%, which deterred some buyers. This has resulted in an unusual market situation where sales are down, but prices are not falling significantly. One contributing factor is that more inventory is available, with listings increasing by 30-40% year-over-year, yet demand is lower due to higher mortgage rates. The inventory that does sell is highly desirable, indicating that buyers are becoming more selective.

The conversation also touches on sellers' motivations, particularly those with low-interest mortgages from previous years, who may be less inclined to sell. Additionally, the market is seeing an increase in leases as an alternative to buying, driven by affordability issues and sellers who prefer to lease their properties rather than reduce their asking prices. This trend is particularly evident in central and south Austin, where leases are becoming a more common option for would-be buyers. The discussion underscores the current disconnect between buyers' and sellers' expectations and the evolving dynamics of the housing market in Austin.

Download an episode transcript here: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/07/DIH-7-9-24.pdf

Links Mentioned:

June 2024 Housing Market Report - Coming Soon! https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Market Data Lab - July 23 - https://www.abor.com/class/market-data-lab-6

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Emily Chenevert reflect on last week’s Market Shift Conversations program featuring special guest, Marki Lemons-Ryhal. They highlight the new Buyer’s Agent Portfolio released during the event that includes research on Austin's demographics and leasing, plus a mid-year review and a Buy vs. Rent Index Addendum.

Dr. Clare Knapp provides insights into the housing market for the second half of 2024, predicting mortgage rates to remain in the mid to high 6 percent range. She notes a balanced market with substantial inventory but relatively stagnant sales activity. Sellers are encouraged to negotiate with buyers to facilitate transactions, as many buyers are unwilling to pay the original list price. June housing stats are anticipated to show a significant decline in sales, with prices remaining flat and active listings increasing.

The conversation also touches on the labor market, which is experiencing a slowdown in job growth. This trend is expected to impact the housing market as employment changes affect household demographics and homeownership status. Despite the challenges, both Emily and Dr. Knapp emphasize the importance of realistic pricing and the need for sellers and buyers to find common ground to close deals. The podcast concludes with a reminder to stay informed and adapt to market trends for continued success in the real estate industry.

Download an episode transcript here: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/07/DIH-7-2-24.pdf

Links Mentioned

ABoR Research - https://www.abor.com/research

Buyer’s Agent Portfolio - https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Buyers-Agent-portfolio-ABoR-Unlock-MLS.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp co-hosts with ABoR Deputy Director of Government Affairs, Taylor Smith. The two dive into the HOME Initiative, which aims to address housing affordability in Austin with two phases: first is to allow three units by right on all residential lots (approved December 2023) and second, to reduce minimum lot size from 5,750 to 1,800 square feet (approved May 2024). Dr. Knapp explains that these changes will likely lead to a decrease in the price of new homes by reducing land costs and the square footage of homes, potentially cutting home prices by up to 54%.

Dr. Knapp further elaborates on the broader impact of the HOME Initiative on overall home prices in Austin. While the initiative should reduce upward pressure on home prices, strong demographic fundamentals will likely continue to drive demand and price increases. Therefore, the initiative is expected to moderate the rate of price increases rather than cause an outright decrease in prices. Taylor and Dr. Knapp also discuss the importance of the development review process and development fees. Delays and high fees in this process can significantly affect housing affordability by increasing costs that are ultimately passed on to consumers.

The conversation wraps up with Taylor emphasizing the ongoing efforts at ABoR to improve the development review process and advocate for more efficient and cost-effective practices. He invites listeners to join the advocacy efforts and highlights the importance of continual improvements in housing policies to ensure affordability.

Links Mentioned:

ABoR Research - https://www.abor.com/research

Impact of Minimum Lot Size on Housing Affordability - https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/04/The-Impact-of-Minimum-Lot-Size-on-Housing-Affordability-April-2024.pdf

This week's episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/06/DIH-6-25-24.pdf

Listen On: 

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Danielle Hammett delve into the complexities of the current housing market, exploring whether it is a buyer's or seller's market. Dr. Knapp explains that the market doesn't fit neatly into either category due to various factors, including elevated mortgage rates, increased active listings, and high home prices. These elements create a balance, making it neither favorable exclusively to buyers nor sellers.

Dr. Knapp emphasizes the importance of looking at multiple indicators rather than focusing on a single statistic like months of inventory. Despite an uptick in active listings providing buyers with more negotiating power, elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates have reduced purchasing power. Sellers benefit from higher home prices but face increased competition and buyers with less purchasing power. The current market dynamics necessitate transparency and honesty from real estate agents to help clients navigate these conditions effectively.

The episode also highlights the March 26 Market Shift Conversations event, where Dr. Knapp will present new research to assist buyer's agents. This includes insights into demographic trends, the wealth-building effects of homeownership, and the role of leasing in the market. Register for this can’t-miss event and get the knowledge needed to better serve clients in the evolving market landscape.

Download a summary and transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/06/DIH-6-18-24.pdf

Links Mentioned:

Market Shift Conversations June 26 https://www.abor.com/event-type/market-shift-conversations

May Central Texas Housing Report https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

ABoR Academy https://www.abor.com/take-a-class

ABoR Events https://www.abor.com/events

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Danielle Hammett discuss the state of the housing market as of May 2024. Danielle opens by noting the end of May and the imminent release May's Central Texas Housing Report. Dr. Knapp highlights the significant impact of mortgage rates on the national housing market, noting their fluctuation between the high six and low seven percent range, which has affected affordability and reduced buyers' purchasing power. Despite declines in median sales prices over the past two years, high mortgage rates have not offset the decline in affordability.

Dr. Knapp elaborates on local factors affecting the Austin housing market, such as the lingering effects of the pandemic surge in home sales and prices. She explains that the market is experiencing a natural reduction in activity as fewer people are buying and moving, compounded by high job growth post-pandemic, which has since slowed. This has resulted in a period of slower growth in both the housing and labor markets.

The discussion shifts to May's market data, showing a 13% year-over-year decline in closed sales and a 37% increase in active listings, indicating more sellers are entering the market. This suggests a cautious approach among buyers who are taking more time to select homes due to the increased inventory. Dr. Knapp advises real estate agents to contextualize these trends for their clients and emphasizes the importance of expert guidance in navigating the current market. The podcast concludes with announcements of upcoming events, including the June 26 Market Shift Conversations event and a Market Data Lab session on June 18 to further discuss market trends and statistics.

Download a transcript of this episode: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/06/DIH-6-11-24.pdf

Links Mentioned

Market Data Lab w/ Dr. Knapp | June 18 https://www.abor.com/class/market-data-lab-5

Market Shift Conversations: Buyer’s Representation | June 26 https://www.abor.com/event-type/market-shift-conversations

Central Texas Housing Report | Coming this week https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Emily Chenevert focus on the newly launched Right Here, Right Now campaign and the suite of resources launched on the new hub. Emily discusses the campaign's intent to assist with navigating the recent NAR settlement changes and MLS rules. They emphasize the importance of a buyer's agent portfolio, to be introduced at the Market Shift Conversations on June 26, which will include small research reports aimed at enhancing the value of buyer's agents to clients.

Dr. Clare Knapp shares insights from the 2023 NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, noting that 86% of buyers in 2023 used a REALTOR® to purchase their homes, highlighting the significant role of agents. They discuss the timing of signing buyer's representative agreements, with nearly 50% of buyers signing these at different stages of their home-buying process. This supports the new requirement for written agreements before home tours, which protects both agents and consumers.

Emily and Dr. Losey further delve into the value buyers find in REALTORS®, such as helping to identify suitable properties, negotiating sales, and recommending service providers. They note that most buyers find their agents through word of mouth, emphasizing the importance of reputation, reliability, and expertise. The discussion concludes with a preview of May’s housing statistics, indicating a slight decrease in closed sales and stable median sales 

Download a transcript of this episode: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/06/DIH-6-204-24.pdf

Links Mentioned

Right Here, Right Now Research Hub: https://www.abor.com/rightnow

Market Shift Conversations – June 26: https://www.abor.com/event-type/market-shift-conversations

NAR Research & Statistics: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report: https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2023-home-buyers-and-sellers-generational-trends-report-03-28-2023.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, ABoR & Unlock MLS CEO Emily Chenevert and Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp discuss the Austin labor market, focusing on recent tech layoffs and their implications for the local economy and housing market. Dr. Knapp explains that while the tech sector in Austin is significant, it does not dominate the economy as much as it used to. The layoffs, primarily driven by interest rate sensitivity, have now started affecting white-collar sectors, including tech jobs in research and development. Despite the tech layoffs, the overall impact on the Austin economy is mitigated by its diversified job market. The housing market is expected to experience a slight decline in sales but remains relatively stable due to this diversification.

They also highlight recent policy changes aimed at addressing housing affordability in Austin, specifically the HOME Phase Two initiative. This policy, supported by ABoR, aims to reduce the minimum lot size for new homes, which could significantly lower the cost of new housing and increase the supply of homes over time. Dr. Knapp emphasizes the long-term benefits of this initiative for affordability, predicting notable price reductions for new homes. The episode concludes with a review of housing statistics for May thus far and some of the numbers you can expect to see in the next Central Texas Housing Report coming early June.

Download a transcript of this episode: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/05/DIH-5-29-24-1.pdf

Links Mentioned:

HOME Phase Two Initiative: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/05/ABoR-Advocacy-Win-May-2024-Housing-Reforms.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, ABoR & Unlock MLS CMO Kelea Youngblood and Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp discuss recent economic indicators and their implications for mortgage rates. They begin by examining the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, highlighting a 3.4% year-over-year increase in headline inflation and a 3.6% rise in the core CPI. Dr. Knapp notes that while these figures met expectations, the slightly lower-than-expected month-over-month headline inflation led to a favorable market reaction, with treasury yields falling and stocks rallying. The discussion emphasizes the significance of these numbers, noting the lowest core inflation reading since April 2021, suggesting a positive trend.

The conversation then shifts to the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on interest rates. Dr. Knapp predicts that the Fed is likely to hold rates steady in June, with a potential rate cut in September. This forecast is based on recent statements from Fed Chair Powell and the current economic data. They also discuss the implications for mortgage rates, noting a recent decline from 7.22% to just over 7%. Dr. Knapp suggests that mortgage rates are expected to gradually decline over the latter half of 2024, especially following the anticipated rate cut in September, potentially making it a favorable time for homebuyers.

The podcast ends by covering new home construction statistics and ongoing research at ABoR. Dr. Knapp shares insights from ABoR's Buy vs. Rent Index, which shows that homeownership tends to be more financially favorable than renting and investing in the stock market, especially over longer periods. They discuss the current affordability trends in new home construction, noting a significant decrease in homes priced under $300,000, but a corresponding increase in those priced between $300,000 and $600,000.

Download a transcript of this episode: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/05/DIH-5-21-24-1.pdf

Links Mentioned:

Broker & Sales Manager Meeting May 30: https://www.abor.com/event/broker-sales-manager-forum-2

Consumer Price Index (CPI):

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

ABoR Research: https://www.abor.com/research

Buy Vs. Rent Index: https://www.abor.com/buyrentindex

ABoR Benefits: https://www.abor.com/benefits

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].