Driving It Home with Unlock MLS

In this episode of Driving It Home, Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp and Deputy Director of Communications Danielle Hammett, discuss the October housing market data for Central Texas. Dr. Knapp reveals that closed sales and median sales prices are relatively flat on a year-over-year basis, with only a slight decrease in both metrics. She notes a peak in active listings, suggesting inventory may slow down as the year ends. This trend, combined with the typical seasonality of fewer home sales in winter, indicates a balanced market with around six months of inventory, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

The conversation also covers mortgage rates, which dropped significantly from May to September but rose again in October, affecting buyer behavior. Dr. Knapp explains that pending sales increased in September due to the anticipation of rate cuts but cautions that buyers expecting further declines may be disappointed. She advises that mortgage rates are likely to stay around 6.5% for the foreseeable future, so buyers and sellers should adjust expectations accordingly. Sellers, in particular, may need to be more flexible with pricing as the market slows in the coming months.

The episode highlights ABoR's new data analytics platform, UnlockStats, Unlock MLS subscriber’s newest benefit, which streamlines housing data for real estate professionals. Dr. Knapp encourages listeners to attend upcoming events, such as the Nov. 19 Market Data Lab and UnlockStats Lab, where members can ask questions, gain insights into the latest market trends, and stick around to learn how to better use UnlockStats.

Links Mentioned

Nov. 19 | Market Data Lab & UnlockStats Lab - https://www.abor.com/course-type/market-data-labs

Coming Nov. 13 | October Central Texas Housing Report - https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Nov. 21 | MLS Power Hour - https://www.abor.com/event/mls-power-hour-3

UnlockStats - https://www.abor.com/unlockstats

Download an episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/11/DIH-11-12-24.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Danielle Hammett focus on the potential impact of the presidential election on the housing market, especially in Austin. Dr. Knapp explains that while there's an assumption that elections influence the economy and, by extension, the housing market, the Federal Reserve’s role in setting interest rates generally limits any direct impact. Mortgage rates, influenced more by the 10-year Treasury yield than by election outcomes, are the biggest factor affecting home sales, meaning election results rarely have a significant effect on the housing market.

Austin’s unique market is also discussed, noting that election years have shown slightly better sales performance in the past, though this is attributed more to economic cycles and market trends rather than the election itself. For instance, sales were higher in 2020 due to the COVID-19 housing boom, not solely because it was an election year. Dr. Knapp emphasizes that the local market’s resilience and its response to broader economic forces are more significant factors for agents and buyers to consider.

The episode closes with advice for real estate agents on guiding their clients through election-related anxieties and focusing on local market trends over national headlines. They encourage agents to use available resources, such as downloadable market insights, to help clients understand real-time data and make informed decisions.

Links Mentioned
ABoR Voter Resource Hub | https://www.abor.com/vote

September Central Texas Housing Report | https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

UnlockStats | https://www.abor.com/unlockstats

UnlockStats Lab | Nov. 19 | https://www.abor.com/course-type/market-data-labs

Market Data Lab | Nov. 19 | https://www.abor.com/course-type/market-data-labs

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

Download an episode summary & transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/11/DIH-11-5-24.pdf

In this episode of Driving It Home, Unlock MLS Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp and ABoR & Unlock MLS CMO Kelea Youngblood discuss ABoR’s global real estate initiatives, highlighting the organization’s recent efforts to expand its international reach. Kelea recounts the recent trip to Milan with other ABoR representatives to attend an international MLS conference, where they networked with global real estate professionals and were awarded an award for mentorship.

Looking at the global market, Dr. Clare Knapp provides an overview of Austin’s strong positioning. She notes Austin’s affordability compared to other major U.S. cities and outlines the 2024 Central Texas International Home Buyers Report findings, showing that international transactions have outpaced local sales. Despite the challenges in the U.S. housing market, international buyers continue to see Central Texas as a favorable option due to economic factors and Austin's growing global reputation in technology and finance.

Kelea and Dr. Knapp end the podcast emphasizing the increasing importance of international sales for Central Texas realtors, encouraging listeners to participate in ABoR’s global programs and events. They close by inviting listeners to stay informed and engaged with the global real estate scene through ABoR’s various offerings, reminding members to attend the next Global Business Alliance Network Hour on Nov. 1 focused on international business.

Links Mentioned

Central Texas International Homebuyers Report | https://www.abor.com/internationalreport

ABoR Global | https://www.abor.com/global

Global Business Network Hour | Nov. 21 | https://www.abor.com/event/abor-gba-network-hour-22

Events & Education Calendar | https://www.abor.com/events

Texas REALTORS® Working with Foreign Buyers | https://www.texasrealestate.com/members/communications/texas-realtor-magazine/issues/september-october-2024/working-with-foreign-buyers/

Download an episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/10/DIH-10-29-24.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Kelea Youngblood discuss the recently released September Housing Report, focusing on the real estate trends in the Austin market. They begin by addressing the headline numbers, highlighting a slight 3% decline in closed sales and a 7% drop in median sales prices, now sitting at approximately $425,000. Despite these declines, Dr. Knapp emphasizes that mortgage rates have dropped from 7% in early July to around 6% at the end of September, yet sales were affected by buyers delaying purchases, likely anticipating further reductions in rates.

The conversation then moves to the sharp 20% increase in pending sales in September. However, Dr. Knapp notes that October sales activity has seen a 17% year-over-year decline. She attributes this to buyers expecting further rate cuts after the Fed's rate cut in mid-September, which did not materialize as rates began rising again. Sellers may need to adjust their expectations, with Dr. Knapp suggesting that home prices might need to come down by about 10%—bringing the median below $400,000—to reignite buyer interest amid higher rates.

Finally, they touch on inventory levels, with active listings up 12%, though lower than earlier in the year when it saw spikes up to 50%. The average close-to-list price ratio is hovering just below 93%, indicating that sellers may still have some room to negotiate. As 2024 approaches, the market is expected to remain slow, with mortgage rates likely staying in the low-to mid-6% range, keeping affordability and buyer demand constrained.

Links Mentioned

https://www.abor.com/unlockstats

https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

Download an Episode Transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/10/DIH-10-22-24.pdf

In this episode of Driving It Home, ABoR Deputy Director of Communications Danielle Hammett covers several key announcements from the recent Central Texas Housing Summit and updates on the local housing market. She highlights the launch of UnlockStats, a new customizable data reporting tool for Unlock MLS subscribers, and the upcoming Data Share with Houston Association of REALTORS® and the San Antonio Board of REALTORS®. Additionally, Danielle discusses the release of the 2024 Central Texas International Home Buyers Report and encourages agents to stay informed on local regulations and policies that impact housing affordability and accessibility.

Taylor Smith, ABoR Director of Government Affairs, joins Danielle to dive into the local housing market's recent trends, including a drop in median sales prices and an increase in months of inventory, signaling a more balanced market. They stress that, despite these positive changes, housing affordability remains a significant concern. Many residents, including public servants, continue to struggle to afford homes within Austin. Taylor emphasizes the need for continued advocacy and reforms that aim to increase housing stock and make it easier to build more homes across the city.

The podcast concludes with a discussion of upcoming local elections and their importance in shaping housing policy. Taylor highlights how city councils and other local offices play a vital role in determining the future of housing affordability in the region. The hosts encourage listeners to stay engaged, vote in local elections, and take advantage of resources like the voter hub at ABoR.com/Vote.

Links Mentioned

https://www.ABoR.com/Vote

https://www.ABoR.com/internationalreport

https://www.ABoR.com/Research

https://www.ABoR.com/TheTruth

https://www.ABoR.com/Livefromcityhallsignup

https://www.ABoR.com/MarketStatistics

https://www.ABoR.com/class/market-data-lab-9

Member Portal | Portal.ABoR.com

Clareity Dashboard | Austin.Clareity.net

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

Download an Episode Transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/10/DIH-10-16-24.pdf

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Kelea Youngblood discuss the dynamics of the Austin housing market, particularly focusing on sellers and their home equity. Kelea begins by highlighting that sellers are keen on retaining the significant home equity gains accumulated during the pandemic, which is still evident in the high home prices. Dr. Knapp explains that despite a moderation in home prices over the past two years, homeowners who purchased their properties before the pandemic are still sitting on substantial equity, with gains nearly 23% higher than they would have been without the pandemic's influence.

The conversation then shifts to the impact of potentially lowering asking prices by 7-10% to attract buyers. Dr. Knapp notes that even with this reduction, sellers would still realize home equity gains significantly above what would have been expected under normal circumstances, thus balancing buyer and seller expectations in the current market.

Lastly, they address the topic of withdrawn listings, a concern for many in the real estate market. Dr. Knapp emphasizes that while there has been an increase in the number of withdrawn listings since 2021, when compared to active listings, the proportion remains consistent over time. This suggests that withdrawn listings might not be as significant a market indicator as some might think. The episode concludes with an announcement about the upcoming Central Texas Housing Summit, which will feature the release of the 2024 Central Texas International Homebuyers Report.

Links Mentioned

Central Texas Housing Summit 10/2: https://www.abor.com/event-type/central-texas-housing-summit

Central Texas International Homebuyers Report – *Coming October 2 at Central Texas Housing Summit

Download an episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/09/DIH-10-01-24.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Emily Chenevert discuss the recent Federal Reserve rate cut of 50 basis points, the first in more than four years. They explore its potential impact on the Austin labor market, which has seen contraction over the past year. Although unemployment remains low, job growth has stagnated, particularly in the professional and business services sector, which has experienced significant job losses.

They also delve into the implications for the housing market in Austin. While mortgage rates have already been adjusting in anticipation of the Fed's move, further rate cuts could provide additional downward pressure. Emily emphasizes that even if mortgage rates don’t immediately drop, the rate cut creates a positive consumer sentiment.

Finally, they encourage listeners to register now for two major events on the horizon: the North American Global Congress and the Central Texas Housing Summit on October 1-3.

Links Mentioned

North American Global Congress https://www.abor.com/event-type/global-congress

Central Texas Housing Summit https://www.abor.com/event-type/central-texas-housing-summit

Central Texas International Homebuyers Report – *Coming October 2 at Central Texas Housing Summit

Download an episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/09/DIH-9-24-24.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode, Emily Chenevert and Dr. Clare Knapp discuss the current state of the Austin housing market. Emily kicks off by mentioning the recent NAR-mandated MLS rules changes, and highlights the recent Market Shift Conversations event that Unlock MLS has been hosting. Dr. Clare Knapp provides a detailed update on home sales and prices, stating that while home sales are down just over 3% and the median sales price is down 2%, the declines are modest overall for the year. However, in August, there was a steeper decline with sales down over 10% and prices down over 4%.

Clare points out that while interest rates are lower now than they were last year, buyer affordability remains the biggest challenge in the market. Home prices are still too high relative to the significant drop in buyer purchasing power, which is down around 26-27% from the peak of the COVID-19 housing boom when interest rates were much lower. While average days on the market have remained stable, about 57% of active listings have experienced price drops, with the average price drop around 9-10%, especially for homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000.

Finally, the conversation shifts to the bigger picture of balancing home prices with buyer purchasing power. Dr. Knapp estimates that home prices would need to drop around another 10% for buyer demand to increase significantly. Emily and Dr. Knapp emphasize the importance of understanding both buyer and seller mindsets, with sellers focused on sale prices and buyers on monthly payments. They encourage listeners to refer to the research document “Rates Are Lower, Where Are The Buyers?” to help frame conversations with clients about the current housing market challenges.

Links Mentioned

Rates Are Lower, Where Are Buyers? https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/09/Lower-Rates-and-Purchasing-Power_Downloadable_09-2024-1.pdf

Download an episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/09/DIH-9-17-24.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

Today’s podcast episode centers around key economic data, the housing market, and predictions for interest rate changes. ABoR & Unlock MLS CMO Kelea Youngblood and Unlock MLS Economist Dr. Clare Knapp begin by discussing the release of recent jobs data and upcoming inflation data, which will guide Federal Reserve decisions. Dr. Knapp anticipates a 25-basis-point cut in interest rates but notes that if inflation data is lower than expected, a 50-basis-point cut is possible. The episode highlights the significance of these economic indicators for monetary policy and housing market trends.

Next, they delve into the August housing market statistics. The MLS rule changes, which took effect in mid-August, haven't yet had a significant impact, according to Dr. Knapp. However, ongoing affordability challenges continue to drive the market, with year-over-year declines in home sales and a dip in the close-to-list price ratio. While mortgage rates have decreased, sellers remain firm on their pricing, creating a disconnect with buyers' purchasing power. The supply of available homes has increased, but sellers’ reluctance to adjust prices is hampering market activity.

Looking ahead, Dr. Knapp predicts the market could see more alignment between buyers and sellers by the spring of 2025, particularly if interest rates continue to drop and sellers adjust their expectations. The episode wraps up with a plug for the upcoming Central Texas Housing Summit and Global Congress in October, where more insights into these trends will be shared.

Links Mentioned

2024 North American Global Congress + Central Texas Housing Summit https://www.abor.com/event-type/global-congress

August 2024 Central Texas Market Report (Coming this week!) https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Download an episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/09/DIH-9-10-24.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Emily Chenevert discuss the recent decline in mortgage rates and its impact on the housing market. The conversation highlights that mortgage rates have dropped from around 7% in early July to approximately 6.35% by late August. While this reduction has increased buyers' purchasing power slightly, it has not significantly altered the market dynamics, given the historically high home prices.

The discussion also touches on the Federal Reserve's role in influencing mortgage rates. Dr. Knapp suggests that any further reductions in mortgage rates will depend on the Fed's rate cuts and monetary policy signals. While a 25-basis point cut is anticipated in September, it's unlikely that mortgage rates will fall below 6% by the end of 2024. The conversation emphasizes the importance for both buyers and sellers to remain realistic about market conditions, considering that while lower mortgage rates might motivate buyer activity, they do not drastically change affordability.

In conclusion, Emily and Clare advise agents to guide their clients by recognizing the limited impact of recent rate changes. Sellers should be mindful of setting realistic list prices, even as they capitalize on increased buyer interest due to rate declines. Buyers, especially first-time buyers, should consider the small but meaningful improvements in affordability that come with lower rates. Both buyers and sellers can benefit from understanding these market shifts and leveraging the expertise of real estate professionals.

Links Mentioned

Market Shift Conversations – 30 Days Post Changes | September 12 https://www.abor.com/event/market-shift-conversations-30-days-post-changes

Download an episode transcript: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/09/DIH-9-4-24.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].