Dynasty Compass

Dynasty managers misvalue injured players — and most of the time, it's because the conventional wisdom is wrong. Footballguys injury expert Adam Hutchison has tracked more than 2,000 injuries across nine seasons, and the data pushes back on some of the most common assumptions: about ACL recovery, about age and athleticism, about which injuries actually linger and which ones don't. Knowing where the myths break down lets you buy low when others are running scared — and avoid the traps that look like value but aren't. Adam also shares which injured dynasty assets he's buying and selling right now, and closes with a three-question checklist every manager should run before making any move on an injured player.

💡 Key Takeaways

• Dynasty managers assume age and athleticism predict ACL recovery. The data says otherwise. Past performance is far more predictive than a player's age or athleticism.
• The "injury prone" label is real but haphazardly applied. Adam's Recovery Score metric shows that some players consistently beat their timelines while others (including some big names) consistently miss more time than expected.
• The number of days between surgery and returning to the lineup has a meaningful, positive relationship with post-injury fantasy output. Dynasty managers should be wary of players returning too quickly after surgery.
• Re-injury risk is higher than most managers realize for certain injury types — MCL sprains for RBs, hamstrings for TEs and WRs — and that risk isn't priced into most dynasty markets.
• Not all injuries linger the same way. Lower leg injuries suppress RB production the longest. Core and hip injuries are the most damaging for WRs' performance. Treating all injuries as equal leads to mispriced trades.
• Some injuries are almost never worth buying at any price. Achilles tears, knee dislocations, and patellar tendon ruptures are the three Adam won't touch regardless of discount.
• Before any injured-player move, run Adam's three-question checklist: know your window, know the injury, know the risk.

⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 – Injuries: An Unfortunate Reality in Football
04:03 – Adam's PT Background Shapes His Injury Analysis
11:43 – Is the 'Injury Prone' Trope Real?
15:12 – Christian McCaffrey, Injury Patterns & Practice Philosophy
21:38 – ACL and Achilles: Is the ‘Recovery Year’ Trope Real?
27:53 – Other Injury Myths the Data Doesn’t Support
31:19 – Re-injury Rates by Position
40:46 – Lingering Effects of Injuries on Production
47:01 – When Should Missing Practice Actually Concern You?
53:10 – Expectations for Alec Pierce, Jonathan Brooks & Tank Dell
59:37 – Adam's Checklist for Buying an Injured Player

🔗 Links Mentioned

• Footballguys 
• Adam's Articles on Footballguys 
• Follow Adam on Twitter/X 
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X 
• Coachspeak Index (Greg Brainos) 
• Keep Trade Cut (dynasty valuation site) 

👍 Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

The 2026 NFL Draft is over. Now the real dynasty work begins. Andrew Cooper of Fantasy Alarm joins Jeff to separate the winners from the losers, highlight the dream landing spots and the fantasy nightmares, and decode the biggest reaches and strangest picks. From Jeremiyah Love's arrival to a crowded RB room to the Jets' bumper crop of slot weapons to the best snipe in NFL draft history, Coop has the intel and strategy you need to win your rookie drafts.

💡 Key Takeaways

• Coop’s “Block Line” evaluates the draft class based on when the first pure blocking tight end is taken. The 2026 class had the earliest Block Line in recent memory.
• Don't overthink Jeremiyah Love (ARI) because of the Cardinals' backfield situation. He's the 1.01, regardless of format.
• Kenyon Sadiq's landing spot (NYJ) was great ... for an hour. Then the Jets drafted Omar Cooper Jr. The slot has gotten crowded.
• Eli Stowers (PHI): the Eagles told him he’s the next in their lineage of star second-round tight ends.
• Depressed RBs: The NIL era has created a bottleneck at running back, and draft capital suffered for it.
• Coop’s favorite non-first-round dynasty picks: Eli Raridon (NE), Elijah Sarratt (BAL), Malachi Fields (NYG) and Adam Randall (BAL).
• De'Zhaun Stribling (SF) and Kaelon Black (SF) headline the reaches, and force Coop and Jeff to rethink their rankings.
• Coop rates KC Concepcion as the last rookie he’s truly comfortable taking in round one of dynasty rookie drafts — after five or six the value gets very sketchy very fast.
• Despite a weak class, there's value to mine in later rookie draft rounds.

⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 – The Draft Is Over
03:39 – The “Block Line”: Coop’s draft quality litmus test
08:42 – Tight end landing spots: Sadiq & the Jets disaster, Stowers & Raridon
19:01 – Tight end nightmares: Roush, Klare & the Rams’ 5-TE
24:15 – Wide receiver landing spots: Williams, Bernard & the best/worst spots
36:35 – Running backs: the NIL bottleneck and why the class is thin
42:10 – Jeremiyah Love: just take him 1.01, full stop
49:09 – Jeanty, Washington & the Raiders’ split-backfield reality
55:28 – Quarterback landing spots: Mendoza, Simpson & the rushing QB flyers
1:06:25 – Reaches, head-scratchers & the panic picks
1:15:32 – Value picks & sleepers: Raridon, Branch, Brazzell & late-round darts
1:20:53 – Dynasty rookie draft strategy: round-by-round recommendations

🔗 Links Mentioned

• Fantasy Alarm
• Follow Andrew Cooper on Twitter/X 
• SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio
• Jeff’s Dynasty Rankings
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X
• Footballguys
• Footballguys Rookie Guide

👍 Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Your rookie pick is never more valuable than when it's on the clock, and the trade window is open. Should you make the pick, trade down, or trade out? Jeff Blaylock sits down with Pete Nova of PlayerProfiler to break down the strategy behind trading picks during your live rookie draft. Knowing when to sell, when to hold, and what to ask for can be the difference between winning and spinning your wheels. Whether you're sitting at the 1.01 or staring at a late third you're not excited about, there's a strategy for every spot on the board.

💡 Key Takeaways

• A pick's value peaks when it's on the clock — certainty is the asset being traded, and knowing your league matters before you try to use it.
• Rebuilders with the 1.01 should always be listening to offers, not just taking the pick. Drafting a player without offering trades or considering trading down for multiple assets is malpractice.
• Moving from an early first area requires a proven player in return, not just picks. A.J. Brown is the kind of asset that justifies dropping a few slots.
• Moving up in the second round means targeting running backs. Wide receiver hit rates are too low to justify burning assets for a late-second receiver.
• Third-round picks are prime candidates to trade for veterans if you're contending, like a Rachaad White or J.K. Dobbins, or opportunities to invest in intriguing tight end prospects.
• Future non-first picks are throw-ins. Future distant firsts should be valued like seconds because the uncertainty is real.
• The person holding the pick on the clock has the leverage, but if you're sitting on a pick you don't want, smart opponents will smell it.

⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 – Intro
05:06 – When Is a Draft Pick's Value at Its Peak?
09:26 – The 1.01: Buying and Selling the Top Pick
14:04 – The 1.03 Tier: What It Takes to Move Down
16:34 – Second-Round Strategies
21:49 – Third-Round Picks: Veterans, Tight Ends, and Futures
28:06 – Your Guy Is on the Board: Draft Now or Negotiate?
35:15 – Who Has the Leverage On the Clock?
39:52 – Deciding to Trade Down vs. Move Out Completely
44:10 – Buying the 2027 Hype?
47:16 – How to Value Future Picks in an Active Trade

🔗 Links Mentioned

• PlayerProfiler Dynasty YouTube
• Follow Pete Nova on Twitter/X
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X 

👍 Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Every incoming rookie gets defined by a blizzard of metrics, but which ones matter for predicting dynasty success? Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points joins Dynasty Compass to walk through the analytical models he built to rank rookies at wide receiver, tight end, and running back. He explains the specific metrics that predict early career fantasy success, which players in the 2026 class those metrics love, which ones concern him, and why. Ryan drops tons of insights on Jordyn Tyson, Jonah Coleman, Elijah Sarratt, Max Klare, Michael Trigg, Tanner Koziol, Zachariah Branch, and many more.

💡 Key Takeaways

• Yards per team passing attempt and first downs per route run are the most predictive metrics for WRs
• Reception share, missed tackles forced and athleticism score matter most for TEs
• "Yards After" and targets per routes run are critical to RB success
• Raw metrics can mislead; they need to be adjusted for age, team volume & strength of schedule
• Beware "one hit wonders" – guys with a single season of solid production
• Slot concentration and overreliance on screens are big red flags for WRs
• The evolution of the TE role and rise of multi-TE sets have serious implications for production

⏱️ Chapters/Timestamps

00:00 – Welcome & Model Building
05:44 – What the Model Predicts
10:35 – Predictive Metrics for WRs
17:14 – Predictive Metrics for TEs
28:09 – Predictive Metrics for RBs
33:17 – Flag Plants: Coleman, Tyson, Sarratt
41:54 – The Problem with Screens: Zachariah Branch
46:32 – Troubles with Washington, Bell & Hurst
52:27 – TEs Who Shine and Those Who Don’t
56:51 – The Problem with Slot Concentration
1:01:31 – Understanding Tiers Is Key

🔗 Links Mentioned

• Ryan's Rookie RB Rankings 
• Ryan's Rookie WR Rankings 
• Ryan's Rookie TE Rankings
• Follow Ryan Heath on Twitter/X
• Fantasy Points
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings at Footballguys
• Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide

👍 Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Most commissioners think their job is merely administrative. They collect dues, schedule drafts, manage league settings and move on. Footballguys' community engagement leader Joey Wright thinks that's only the beginning. In this episode, Joey joins Jeff Blaylock to talk about what it actually takes to build a dynasty league that people never want to leave, from the three roles every commissioner plays to the tools and traditions that keep a league alive year-round to what separates a good commissioner from a great one. Whether you're a veteran commissioner or thinking about launching your first league, this conversation will change how you see your role.

You may want to check out this episode on YouTube for some special photos and moments that don't necessarily translate to audio-only formats.

Topics Include

• The three hats every commissioner wears: administrator, mediator, and social chair
• Why turnover is the truest signal a league is in trouble
• How a league constitution prevents most conflicts before they start
• The best communication tools for keeping leagues engaged are outside the app
• The off-season engagement playbook: events, birthdays, and more
• What to look for in a commissioner and what skills the role actually requires
• Starting a dynasty league from scratch: settings, format, buy-in, and timing
• The Empire dynasty format and why it may be the future of money leagues

Chapters/Timestamps

00:00 — The Commissioner Builds the Community
01:55 — Joey's Road to a Full-time Fantasy Role
09:19 — The Home League Show & How It Came to Be
13:10 — Think Bigger Than Administration
17:06 — The Three Hats: Administrator, Mediator, Social Chair
23:01 — What to Look for in a Commissioner
31:00 — Skills Every Commissioner Needs
38:29 — Handling Conflict & the Constitution
46:17 — How to Level Up Your League
55:39 — Parting Advice for New Commissioners
58:58 — Where to Find Joey

Links & Resources Mentioned in the Show

Download an Example League Constitution
Order "The Commissioner's Playbook: A Guide to Creating the Fantasy Football League of Your Dreams" from Amazon (not an affiliate link)

Follow Joey on Twitter/X
The Home League Show on YouTube
Trivia Night Live on YouTube
Footballguys

Follow Jeff on Twitter/X
Jeff's Dynasty Rankings

Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Orphan leagues are often the easiest entry into dynasty, and adopting one comes with a learning curve that nobody warns you about. FFToday's Dustin Ludke joins Jeff Blaylock to walk through the full orphan experience: how to evaluate a roster before you commit, what to expect from your new league mates, and how to rebuild from the worst team in the league into a contender. Knowing what's actually coming — from early lowball offers to the energy drain of managing a rebuild — can be the difference between a frustrating experience and a future championship run.

Topics Include:

• How to evaluate an orphan roster before agreeing to take it over
• Red flags that signal a league you should walk away from
• Fee negotiation and how to protect yourself from being a league's ATM machine
• Finding cornerstone players in a bad roster
• How to use a win threshold framework for closing the gap, position by position
• Why new orphan managers underestimate the energy a rebuild requires
• How to read your league mates and match the trading energy of a new league
• The "ask for the throw-in" principle and how lottery tickets compound over time

Chapters/Timestamps:

00:00 — Orphans Are the Gateway Drug to Dynasty
02:05 — Justin's Diary of an Orphan
07:10 — Evaluating an Orphan Before You Commit
12:00 — Red Flags: Turnover, Fees & League Drama
20:00 — Finding Cornerstones in a Disaster Roster
22:48 — What New Orphan Managers Underestimate
28:50 — The First Thing to Do After Adoption
35:25 — Minimal Increases: How Rebuilds Actually Work 
42:50 — What Dustin Wishes He'd Known About Dynasty 
47:10 — Where to Find Dustin

Links Mentioned in the Episode

• Follow Dustin on Twitter/X 
• FFToday 
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings
• Footballguys
• LeagueSafe 
• LeagueSafe Find a League
• Dynatyze 

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Alfredo Brown of the Pretend GM joins Jeff Blaylock to dig into the 2026 rookie class — not the names everyone already knows, but the players worth targeting in rounds 2, 3, and beyond. Knowing which late-round prospects have real upside versus which ones are just names on a sheet can mean the difference between a dynasty-winning stash and wasted roster space. Alfredo walks through his proprietary PGM Score, his Low/Median/High player comp framework, and what he took away from watching prospects in person at the NFL Combine. A must-listen before your rookie draft.

Topics Include:

• How the PGM Score is built and what it measures at each position
• Why three player comps beat one, and how to read a range of outcomes
• What it's actually like to scout players in person at the NFL Combine
• WR sleepers: Ted Hurst, Brennan Thompson, and CJ Daniels
• RB sleepers: Jaydn Ott and what makes him a fourth-round target
• TE sleepers: Max Claire, Oscar Delp, Eli Rein, and the blocking-matters argument
• Pass protection concerns: Kaytron Allen, Jadarian Price, and Kenyon Sadiq
• Why Pretend GM Gems mark the players where film, analytics, and draft value all align
• Class quality, kicking the can on bad draft years, and using picks based on your team's actual direction

Chapters/Timestamps

00:00 — Intro & Welcome
02:57 — What moved Alfredo to build a rookie guide
06:23 — The PGM Score: how it's built and why
09:48 — How the PGM Score maps to player tiers
11:50 — Player comps using Chris Brazzell as an example
16:15 — Where to find the Pretend GM Rookie Draft Guide
17:33 — Alfredo's experiences at the Combine
22:16 — How the Combine affects his rankings
28:03 — WR sleepers: Ted Hurst, Brenen Thompson
36:20 — RB sleepers: Jaydn Ott
39:12 — TE sleepers: Max Klare, Oscar Delp, Eli Raridon
43:19 — Pass protection concerns: Kaytron Allen, Kenyon Sadiq
48:29 — Pretend GM Gems: CJ Daniels, Taylen Green
51:20 — Class quality, kicking the can, and using picks wisely
57:43 — Wrap & where to find Alfredo

Links Mentioned on the Show

• Get the Pretend GM Rookie Guide 
• Pretend GM Podcast  
• Follow Alfredo on Twitter/X 
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings at Footballguys
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X 

Support the Show: If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Jeff Blaylock and RotoWire's Alan Seslowsky return for Part II of their conversation, working through every significant free agency mover and what it means for your dynasty roster before the NFL Draft arrives. Knowing which players to buy now, which to hold, and which to trade away before the market catches up is the difference between a dynasty offseason well-spent and one you'll regret. They close with a look at which veteran players are about to get kneecapped by the incoming rookie class — and how both hosts are planning to use their picks in the degenerate four-quarterback league they share.

Topics Include

• Travis Etienne's move to New Orleans and what it means for Bhayshul Tuten in Jacksonville
• Rico Dowdle in Pittsburgh: real dynasty asset or glorified trade chip?
• The Panthers backfield: Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Brooks, and Trevor Etienne
• A.J. Brown as the run-into-the-burning-building buy of the offseason
• Mike Evans to San Francisco: the easiest veteran buy of the window
• D.J. Moore to Buffalo, Wan'Dale Robinson to Tennessee, and what they leave behind
• Isaiah Likely, Chig Okonkwo, and the tight end middle class
• Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings — buy while unsigned
• Which veterans are primed to get kneecapped by Jeremiah Love's landing spot
• How Jeff and Alan are approaching their rookie draft picks in their shared league

Chapters/Timestamps

00:00 — Intro
00:50 — Travis Etienne & Jaguars Impacts
04:23 — Rico Dowdle in Pittsburgh
08:19 — The Panthers Backfield: Hubbard, Brooks & Trevor Etienne
12:35 — Courtland Sutton & De'Von Achane: Hold or Move?
14:51 — The Seattle Backfield Without Kenneth Walker
18:08 — Time to Buy A.J. Brown or Jaylen Waddle?
22:13 — Mike Evans to San Francisco: Easy Buy
25:35 — DJ Moore to Buffalo & Wan'Dale Robinson to Tennessee
32:08 — Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews & David Njoku
35:30 — Chig Okonkwo: Sneaky Winner of Free Agency
38:29 — Aiyuk, Hill, Deebo & Jauan Jennings: Buy the Unsigned
41:58 — Who Gets Kneecapped by the Rookie Draft?
45:31 — What We're Doing with Our Picks

Links Mentioned on the Show

Episode 29 (Part 1 of this conversation with Alan)

Follow Alan Seslowsky on X:
RotoWire
SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio

Catch The Dynasty Hour, hosted by Alan Seslowsky, on SiriusXM Channel 87, Tues/Wed/Fri 1:00 PM ET

Jeff's Dynasty Rankings
Follow Jeff on Twitter/X

Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

The window between free agency and the NFL Draft may be the most underrated trade market of the dynasty calendar, and most managers are either frozen or making the wrong moves. Jeff Blaylock sits down with RotoWire's Alan Seslowsky to break down how to think about this moment and shares his philosophy of running into the burning building. 

In Part 1 of this two-episode series, Jeff and Alan discuss who to target before the market catches up and why waiting for the draft usually costs you more than it saves. They also dig into the 2027 pick hype, the Alec Pierce sleeper case, Kyler vs JJ, Jaylen Waddle's prospects in Denver, and why Kenneth Walker's dynasty value is more complicated than it appears.

Topics Include

• Why the post-free agency, pre-draft window is an undervalued trade market
• Alan's philosophy of running into the burning building
• Dented cans & broken toys: names worth a second look
• The 2027 pick hype: legitimate signal or dynasty groupthink?
• Alec Pierce: overlooked dynasty riser right now?
• How coaching changes create buy and sell opportunities dynasty managers are missing
• Jaylen Waddle's upside in Denver and what it means for the whole offense
• Kenneth Walker: cash out into the Super Bowl MVP hype, or hold?

Chapters/Timestamps

00:00 – That Crazy League We're In Together
05:04 – Should You Ever Rebuild, or Always Go for It?
09:54 – Grading the Offseason Chaos
12:59 – Run Into the Burning Building
17:39 – Dented Cans & Broken Toys
21:09 – Bench Size Changes Everything
24:52 – The 2027 Class Hype: Real or Overblown?
29:14 – The Counterintuitive Play for an 8th Place Team
31:26 – Offseason Storylines We're Sleeping On
36:30 – The Case for Buying Productive Vets Now
39:24 – Jaylen Waddle's Opportunity in Denver
44:38 – Kenneth Walker: Cash Out or Hold?
50:32 – Juggling Leagues & Platforms
55:37 – On Agentic AI: "I Saw War Games"

Links Mentioned

• Rotowire
• SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio
• Follow Alan on Twitter/X
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings at Footballguys 
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X

Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Dynasty rookie draft picks look sequential — but they are not created equal. Knowing where the gaps are located lets you trade for value and avoid traps.

In this episode of Dynasty Compass, Jeff Blaylock breaks down the hidden value cliffs that divide rookie drafts into distinct probability bands.

Using nine years of ADP data and rookie performance outcomes, Jeff explains why the 1.01 stands alone, how much value the first 16 picks historically produce, how likely you'll draft a fantasy starter, and why the largest value cliff in the entire rookie draft occurs between picks 2.04 and 2.05.

Understanding where these cliffs exist can help dynasty managers trade down intelligently, capture additional value, and avoid the traps that cause managers to overpay for perceived certainty.

Topics Include

• Why rookie draft picks have no inherent value
• Draft pick bands vs rookie tiers
• The unique value of the 1.01
• Historical hit rates by rookie draft pick
• The 2.04 vs 2.05 “Grand Canyon” value drop
• How your rookie draft is really two drafts
• Trading down to gain dynasty value

Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 The Dirty Secret of Rookie Draft Picks
03:02 The Lottery Ticket Problem
04:18 What Draft Picks Actually Guarantee
06:33 Certainty vs Flexibility in Rookie Drafts
08:50 Draft Pick Bands vs Rookie Tiers
10:06 This Year's 1.03-1.05
12:51 How the Research Was Built
16:27 The Rookie Draft Pick Bands
17:54 Why the 1.01 Is Unique
19:54 Expected Value by Pick Range
23:23 The 2.04 vs 2.05 Chasm
29:05 Example Dynasty Trades
32:52 The Strategy: Trade Down Within Bands

Resources Mentioned in the Show

• Episode 25 - Draft or Trade? 1-Round Rookie Mock with Heath Cummings
• Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide
• Dynasty League Football 
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X

Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.