EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

“Bracketing Cluelessness” is a philosophy paper by Sylvester Kollin, Anthony DiGiovanni, Nicolas Macé, and myself, which presents a new approach to decision-making in the face of consequentialist cluelessness.

Abstract:

Consequentialists must take into account all possible consequences of their actions, including those in the far future. But due to the difficulty of getting a grasp on these consequences and producing non-arbitrary probabilities for them, it seems that consequentialists should often consider themselves clueless about which option is best. Contrary to orthodox consequentialism, however, there is a common-sense intuition that one should bracket those consequences which one is clueless about. Building on a model involving imprecise probability, we develop two novel alternatives to orthodoxy which capture this intuition. On bottom-up bracketing, we set aside those beneficiaries for whom we are clueless what would be best, and then base the overall verdict on the remainder. On top-down [...]

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Linkpost URL:
https://longtermrisk.org/files/Bracketing_Cluelessness.pdf

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Audio note: this article contains 126 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description.

This is a less formal overview of the key ideas in the working paper “Bracketing Cluelessness”. There is also a standalone linkpost for the paper, which I’ve split off from this post, since this one contains personal commentary (not necessarily endorsed by my co-authors).

• We may be clueless about how our actions affect aggregate welfare: we may not be able to say any intervention is better, worse, or exactly as good as another, in terms of its expected total consequences. There is an intuition that the appropriate response is to base our decisions on relatively robust and predictable effects, and that this favors near-term interventions like global health and animal welfare. But there is not yet [...]

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Outline:

(00:41) Summary

(04:05) Introduction

(07:14) The basic idea

(11:49) In more detail: Formalism and major challenges

(11:55) Cluelessness and imprecise probabilities

(13:24) Defining bracketing

(21:45) Theoretical challenges

(21:49) What are the locations of value?

(23:52) Cyclicity

(24:48) Sequential decision-making

(25:35) Further implications of bracketing

(25:52) Getting off the train to crazy town: Why and where

(27:46) Bracketing beyond locations of value

(29:43) Conclusion

(30:46) Acknowledgements

(31:07) References

(31:13) Appendix: More on cyclicity

(31:18) Example of a cycle

(33:58) Versions of the objection from cyclicity and our responses

(34:04) The semantic argument

(35:14) The synchronic (one-off) choice argument

(36:36) The dynamic choice (value-pump) argument

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The content of this report was written by me, Michael Dickens, and does not represent the views of Rethink Priorities. The executive summary was prepared by Rethink Priorities; I edited the final revision, so any mistakes are my own.

Executive Summary

Why AI Landscape Research and Incubating New Projects Matters

TAI may be a decade or less away, and misalignment could be catastrophic. We need repeated fast, rigorous scans of the field—what exists, what works, where funding and talent are concentrated, and where the next dollar or FTE most reduces risk. To that end, Rethink Priorities commissioned a rapid landscape analysis to surface neglected, high-leverage opportunities. The report, authored by Michael Dickens (views his own), reviews 34 areas of interest and identifies 77 organizations in the relevant fields.

Key Findings

1. Implementation-focused policy advocacy and communication are neglected

Both AI-safety technical research and [...]

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Outline:

(00:26) Executive Summary

(00:29) Why AI Landscape Research and Incubating New Projects Matters

(01:09) Key Findings

(01:13) 1. Implementation-focused policy advocacy and communication are neglected

(02:56) 2. Non-technical, short-timelines work is undervalued

(04:02) 3. Work on AI for animal welfare is neglected & high-leverage

(05:18) Introduction

(08:30) Prelude

(09:58) Some positions Im going to take as given

(10:34) Definitions

(11:28) Prioritization

(12:31) Why not technical safety research?

(13:44) Why not AI policy research?

(15:25) Downsides of AI policy/advocacy (and why theyre not too big)

(21:35) What kinds of policies might reduce AI x-risk?

(23:41) Some AI policy ideas I like

(25:47) Maybe prioritizing post-TAI animal welfare

(27:08) Why not prioritize digital minds / S-risks / moral error / better futures / AI misuse x-risk / gradual disempowerment?

(30:44) Whos working on them?

(32:19) Some relevant research agendas

(33:48) General recommendations

(33:52) Advocacy should emphasize x-risk and misalignment risk

(36:56) Prioritize work that pays off if timelines are short

(38:06) Top project ideas

(38:24) Talk to policy-makers about AI x-risk

(42:35) Write AI x-risk legislation

(46:07) Advocate to change AI training to make LLMs more animal-friendly

(49:48) Develop new plans / evaluate existing plans to improve post-TAI animal welfare

(54:07) Honorable mentions

(54:10) Directly push for an international AI treaty

(56:06) Organize a voluntary commitment by AI scientists not to build advanced AI

(01:00:17) Peaceful protests

(01:04:08) Media about dangers of AI

(01:05:54) Message testing

(01:07:33) Host a website for discussion of AI safety and other important issues

(01:09:28) List of other project ideas

(01:10:09) AI-for-animals ideas

(01:10:14) Neartermist animal advocacy

(01:12:11) Using TAI to improve farm animal welfare

(01:14:45) Lobby governments to include animal welfare in AI regulations

(01:15:56) Traditional animal advocacy targeted at frontier AI developers

(01:17:14) Research which alignment strategies are more likely to be good for animals

(01:18:44) AI policy/advocacy ideas

(01:18:49) Improving US China relations / international peace

(01:20:31) Talk to international peace orgs about AI

(01:21:23) Increasing government expertise about AI

(01:24:32) Policy/advocacy in China

(01:26:29) Corporate campaigns to advocate for safety

(01:28:05) Develop AI safety/security/evaluation standards

(01:29:37) Slow down Chinese AI development via ordinary foreign policy

(01:32:07) Whistleblower protection/support

(01:33:26) Opinion polling

(01:34:32) Help AI company employees improve safety within their companies

(01:35:35) Direct talks with AI companies to make them safer

(01:36:58) Monitor AI companies on safety standards

(01:38:09) Create a petition or open letter on AI risk

(01:39:37) Create demonstrations of dangerous AI capabilities

(01:41:10) Sue OpenAI for violating its nonprofit mission

(01:42:50) Send people AI safety books

(01:44:15) AI research ideas

(01:44:34) Research on how to get people to extrapolate

(01:47:33) Investigate how to use AI to reduce other x-risks

(01:50:10) A short-timelines alignment plan that doesnt rely on bootstrapping

(01:52:15) Rigorous analysis of the various ways alignment bootstrapping could fail

(01:53:31) Future work

(01:53:35) Pros and cons of slowing down AI development, with numeric credences

(01:55:02) Quantitative model on AI x-risk vs. other x-risks

(01:56:21) Deeper investigation of the AI arms race situation

(01:56:53) Does slowing down/pausing AI help solve non-alignment problems?

(01:58:49) Determine when will be the right time to push for strong restrictions on AI (if not now)

(01:59:49) Supplements

The original text contained 8 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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Last week I asked a group of very online EAs if they’d heard of the Opportunities board. To my surprise, not one of them had.

So before sharing recent updates: The Opportunities board lists opportunities that require less time or expertise than a full-time role. It includes internships, volunteer opportunities, part-time roles, events, funding opportunities, training programs, and more. If you know someone who would benefit from the board, consider letting them know it exists!

We’ve rolled out some UI updates

You can now access all filters without scrolling, and we’re making space to add more. You can also see more information about the opportunity up front: which type of opportunity it is, the exact time it got posted, and how many opportunities are currently on the board.

In the next few weeks we'll also add bigger pieces of functionality:

• Email alerts
• More filters (tell [...]

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Outline:

(00:46) We've rolled out some UI updates

(01:31) Whats next for the board

(02:12) Ways you can help

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First published:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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Last week I asked a group of very online EAs if they’d heard of the Opportunities board. To my surprise, not one of them had.

So before sharing recent updates: The Opportunities board lists opportunities that require less time or expertise than a full-time role. It includes internships, volunteer opportunities, part-time roles, events, funding opportunities, training programs, and more. If you know someone who would benefit from the board, consider letting them know it exists!

We’ve rolled out some UI updates

You can now access all filters without scrolling, and we’re making space to add more. You can also see more information about the opportunity up front: which type of opportunity it is, the exact time it got posted, and how many opportunities are currently on the board.

In the next few weeks we'll also add bigger pieces of functionality:

• Email alerts
• More filters (tell [...]

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Outline:

(00:44) We've rolled out some UI updates

(01:18) Whats next for the board

(02:01) Ways you can help

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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by Johnny Stengel – Political Advisor, Lobbyist, and Member of Effective Altruism Germany e.V.

Introduction

When people in the Effective Altruism community talk about “policy impact,” lobbying often comes up as one of the highest-leverage activities. But the practice of lobbying is rarely demystified. What does it actually look like? Who can do it effectively? How do you measure whether your hours in Brussels or Berlin truly shifted anything?

I want to share my experience — as someone who built a volunteer-based lobbying network from scratch, moved into federal and then EU-level policy engagement, and who now works across climate, AI, and governance issues. My aim here is not to glorify “influence” but to make the practice tangible, to outline what skills and strategies matter, and to highlight the systemic levers where lobbying may make the most difference for future generations.

How I Found Myself in Lobbying

In [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Introduction

(01:10) How I Found Myself in Lobbying

(02:54) What Lobbying really looks like

(04:35) Skills, Characters, and Misconceptions

(05:53) Collective Impact, Not Ego

(06:43) Windows of Opportunity

(07:31) Big Levers Beyond Traditional Lobbying

(08:22) Where the Biggest Impact Might Lie

(09:26) What Kind of People We Need

(09:59) Concluding Thoughts

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We've previously shared on the forum FarmKind's calculator to help meat-eaters offset the animal welfare impact of their diet through donations (like carbon offsets).

You can see our original post and the discussion about the calculator here.

One thing we've heard from early adopters is "this is great, and I think my [friend/family member] would be into this, but I'm not sure how to explain it to them". Understandable!

Explaining to people that even if they're not willing to change their diet, they can still help improve the lives of farmed animals through donations, without making them feel judged for their diet can be hard. Many people are quite defensive when it comes to their diet, and have come to associate calls for them to help farmed animals with judgmental vegans, even when they're not being judged at all.

To make it easier for people to share [...]

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This memo was originally written for the Meta Coordination Forum 2025. I’m sharing this here (with some edits) in the hope it will be useful for others as well. (my other MCF memos are here: How High Impact Professionals (HIP) can support you; More Sharing of Top Candidates - Easy, High-Impact, Underused)

Disclaimer: I wrote this fairly quickly - no further research done compared to the data we have already available.

I’ve learned a lot from running programs for experienced professionals who are short on time but eager to make a bigger impact. Below are a few of the most transferable lessons - especially relevant if you're designing programs, courses, or communities in the high-impact space.

Drive action

Build actions gradually

We don’t ask participants to quit their job in Week 1. Instead:

• Start with lower-bar, outward-facing actions (e.g. adding their mission statement to their LinkedIn, reaching out [...]

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Outline:

(01:00) Drive action

(01:03) Build actions gradually

(01:30) Celebrate actions and wins

(01:46) Offer people impactful steps inside their control

(02:12) Keeping your top performers engaged

(02:16) Maximise value per 15 minutes

(02:41) Select top participants

(03:04) Build a high-trust environment

(03:09) 1:1s in Week 1

(03:30) Mastermind sessions

(03:56) Design around your high-performers

(04:15) Make networking easy and low-effort

(04:19) Make it easy to find connections

(04:34) Include weekly 1:1 nudges

(04:50) Build in-person connections around conferences

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“How many chickens spared from cages is worth not being with my parents as they get older?!” - Me, exasperated (September 18, 2021)

This post is about something I haven’t seen discussed on the EA forum but I often talk about with my friends in their mid 30s. It's about something I wish I'd understood better ten years ago: if you are ~25 and debating whether to move to an EA Hub, you are probably underestimating how much the calculus will change when you’re ~35, largely related to having kids and aging parents. Since this is underappreciated, moving to an EA Hub, and building a life there, can lead to tougher decisions later that can sneak up on you.

If you’re living in an EA hub, or thinking about moving, this post explores reasons you might want to head home as you get older, different ways [...]

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Outline:

(00:11) Intro and summary

(01:49) Why move to an EA Hub in the first place?

(02:57) How things change as you get older

(05:33) Why YOU might be more likely to feel the pull to head home

(06:49) How did I decide? How should you decide?

(08:38) Consolation prize - moving to a Hub isn't all or nothing

(09:38) Conclusion

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Summary: Consumers rejected genetically modified crops, and I expect they will do the same for cultivated meat. The meat lobby will fight to discredit the new technology, and as consumers are already primed to believe it's unnatural, it won’t be difficult to persuade them.

When I hear people talk about cultivated meat (i.e. lab-grown meat) and how it will replace traditional animal agriculture, I find it depressingly reminiscent of the techno-optimists of the 1980s and ‘90s speculating about how genetic modification will solve all our food problems. The optimism of the time was understandable: in 1994 the first GMO product was introduced to supermarkets, and the benefits of the technology promised incredible rewards. GMOs were predicted to bring about the end of world hunger, all while requiring less water, pesticides, and land.

Today, thirty years later, in the EU GM foods are so regulated that they are [...]

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Outline:

(01:56) Why did GMOs fail to be widely adopted?

(02:44) A Bad First Impression

(05:54) Unpopular Corporate Concentration

(07:22) Cultivated Meat IS GMO

(08:45) What timeline are we in?

(10:24) What can be done to prevent cultivated meat from becoming irrelevant?

(10:30) Expect incredible opposition

(11:46) Be ready to tell a clear story about the benefits.

(13:17) A proactive PR Effort

(15:01) First impressions matter

(17:16) Labeling

(19:35) Be ready to discuss concerns about unnaturalness

(21:56) Limitations of the comparison

(23:07) Conclusion

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