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This post summarizes a new preprint from the Humane and Sustainable Food Lab at Stanford titled “Taking a bite out of meat, or just giving fresh veggies the boot? Plant-based meats did not reduce meat purchasing in a randomized controlled menu intervention.”
The paper reports on an online RCT where participants were asked to select taco fillings from one of three menus designed to mimic the options at Chipotle. They could choose from both meat- and plant-based options.
The randomized treatment was whether participants saw
The treatment was embedded in a series of decoy questions about choosing pens and t-shirts to obscure the purpose of the study.
The main outcome was whether people chose [...]
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There's a huge amount of energy spent on how to get the most QALYs/$. And a good amount of energy spent on how to increase total $. And you might think that across those efforts, we are succeeding in maximizing total QALYs.
I think a third avenue is under investigated: marginally improving the effectiveness of ineffective capital. That's to say, improving outcomes, only somewhat, for the pool of money that is not at all EA-aligned.
This cash is not being spent optimally, and likely never will be. But the sheer volume could make up for the lack of efficacy.
Say you have the option to work for the foundation of one of two donors:
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Outline:
(01:34) Most money is not EA money
(04:32) How much money is there?
(05:49) Effective Everything?
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I drafted this in May. I’m just getting this post out the door now, but the atmosphere feels similar.
I’m feeling unusually worried right now about problems in the world. I'm typically skeptical when people claim things are uniquely bad—and I counter their claim with some uplifting graph from Our World in Data. But recent developments around AI timelines, global political changes, and cuts to important global health programs, have left me more pessimistic than usual.
I'm reminded of physicist Richard Feynman writing about his time shortly after working on the Manhattan Project:
I would go along and I would see people building a bridge, or they'd be making a new road, and I thought, they're crazy, they just don't understand, they don't understand. Why are they making new things? It's so useless.
This captures how I've been feeling lately—watching normal life continue while carrying this sense [...]
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Outline:
(01:19) If youre feeling stressed or overwhelmed
(03:25) If youre with others who are stressed
(04:54) Review your career path, but dont constantly second-guess
(05:21) Choose your part of the probability distribution
(06:43) Getting support
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Reflections from an Incubation Program in Latin America
This is the second in a series of posts about a nonprofit incubation program we’re running in Spanish-speaking Latin America, funded by Open Philanthropy. The goal is to support the creation of new, evidence-based organizations that implement cost-effective interventions adapted to local contexts. You can find the first post here.
We have finished selecting the first cohort of founders. In this post we will introduce the framework used to select them, along with some learnings that can be useful for other people founding or considering founding an effective nonprofit or joining an incubation program.
But first, a quick update: we have decided to rebrand our program name, as the previous one had an important similarity to another impact-focused incubator, Catalyze Impact. Our new program name is: Theory of Change Makers.
TL;DR
We launched the Theory of Change Makers program [...]
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Outline:
(00:11) Reflections from an Incubation Program in Latin America
(01:15) TL;DR
(04:27) Complete post:
(04:31) Summary data
(06:18) Logistics of the selection process
(08:46) Main learnings in the selection process
(10:14) Things we saw a lot in the application process and why an EA lens is highly beneficial from an incubation perspective
(13:54) What was non-negotiable?
(15:27) Some things that aren't as obvious as they might seem
(16:51) The hardest part of the selection process
(19:34) ✨ Personal Commitment Letter ✨
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ACX/Scott Alexander's summary:
But now a new report comes out arguing that the previous reports were wrong, that lab-grown meat production is going much better than the earlier reports thought possible, and it's more or less cost-effective already for the simplest products! Again, mixed reactions, and although some of the numbers are indisputable the analysis itself this is by a VC firm with lab-based meat investments.
From the report:
Not long after Humbird's analysis was published, independent news outlet The Counter (now part of Grist) ran a long-form feature that echoed many of the report's key assumptions and conclusions. Together, the two pieces helped catalyze a wave of heightened skepticism, with their central arguments reiterated and amplified in mainstream outlets including Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.
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While it may take years—or even decades—to fully understand how the cultured meat industry will [...]
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https://www.proteinreport.org/articles/the-case-for-cultured-meat-has-changed/
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‘Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future’ was recently published by Oxford University Press. It's open access — you can read it for free here[1].
The book covers the case for longtermism, ways to forecast and evaluate the future, discussions of our priorities in light of longtermism, and the prospects for longtermism in institutions. David Thorstad goes into more detail on the book's contents here.
An academic book like this is published in the hope that it will generate more serious discussion of the ideas it contains and the questions it raises. To contribute to that goal, we’re working with the book's editors to host an essay competition here on the Forum.
To enter: write an essay (of whatever length it needs to be[2]) in response to an essay (or a theme from across the essays) in this collection. Then, post it on the [...]
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Outline:
(01:09) Prizes:
(01:21) The Judges
(03:09) How we will select the winners
(04:20) The prize is money, so... legal stuff
(04:57) FAQs
(05:00) Am I eligible?
(05:21) Can I co-author a piece?
(05:31) Can I treat entries to the competition like regular forum posts?
(05:49) Can I submit a piece I've already published elsewhere?
(06:19) Are there prizes for referring pieces?
(06:26) Will I get feedback on my entry?
(06:44) What criteria will submissions be judged on?
(07:27) Does style matter?
(07:46) (How) Can I use AI?
(08:15) Can I enter more than once?
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Introduction
We are pleased to announce the publication of Essays on Longtermism, now available from Oxford University Press. This is the first peer-reviewed edited volume on longtermism, containing an introduction and 30 substantive chapters, which are all available open access here. (Please bear with us as we work through a few issues with the ebook).
The book is edited by Hilary Greaves (University of Oxford), Jacob Barrett (Vanderbilt University), and David Thorstad (Vanderbilt University).
Here is the blurb for the volume:
Longtermism, broadly speaking, is the view that positively influencing the long-term future is one of the key moral priorities of our time. Calls for taking a long-term view towards global problems such as climate change and poverty are familiar, typically urging us to plan on a scale of decades or perhaps a century. By contrast, longtermism asks us to take seriously the idea that what we should do [...]
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Outline:
(00:09) Introduction
(02:18) Part 1: Evaluating the case for longtermism
(04:00) Part 2: Predicting and evaluating the future
(05:03) Part 3: Ethical priorities
(07:32) Part 4: Institutions and society
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Why 10%?
Because that's the number of the 10% Pledge. No other reason.
How big a deal is donating 10% of your pre-tax income really?
On the one hand, 10% of one's income feels like a lot of money no matter how much you make. But on the other hand, incomes vary tremendously such that no matter how much you make, giving away 10% of your income won't change your relative income rank by much.
If you're an American who income is higher than 20% / X% / 80% of Americans, then your effective income leftover after donating 10% of your pre-tax income will still be higher than 18% / X-7% / 76% of Americans.
In the US, donating 10% at most lowers your income percentile by 6.3 percentile from 54th percentile to 47.7th percentile, requiring you to live on $49,500 instead of $55,000.
So from this perspective at [...]
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Outline:
(00:23) Why 10%?
(00:32) How big a deal is donating 10% of your pre-tax income really?
(01:36) An old related memory
(04:00) Better versions of this chart
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Why 10%?
Because that's the number of the 10% Pledge. No other reason.
How big a deal is donating 10% of your pre-tax income really?
On the one hand, 10% of one's income feels like a lot of money no matter how much you make. But on the other hand, incomes vary tremendously such that no matter how much you make, giving away 10% of your income won't change your relative income rank by much.
If you're an American who income is higher than 20% / X% / 80% of Americans, then your effective income leftover after donating 10% of your pre-tax income will still be higher than 18% / X-7% / 76% of Americans.
In the US, donating 10% at most lowers your income percentile by 6.3 percentile from 54th percentile to 47.7th percentile, requiring you to live on $49,500 instead of $55,000.
So from this perspective at [...]
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Outline:
(00:23) Why 10%?
(00:32) How big a deal is donating 10% of your pre-tax income really?
(01:36) An old related memory
(04:00) Better versions of this chart
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Hi, have you been rejected from all the 80K listed EA jobs you’ve applied for? It sucks, right? Welcome to the club. What might be comforting is that you (and I) are not alone. EA Job listings are extremely competitive, and in the classic EA career path, you just get rejected over and over. Many others have written about their rejection experience, here, here, and here.
Even if it is quite normal for very smart, hardworking, proactive, and highly motivated EAs to get rejected from high-impact positions, it still sucks.
It sucks because we sincerely want to make the world a radically better place. We’ve read everything, planned accordingly, gone through fellowships, rejected other options, and worked very hard just to get the following message:
"Thank you for your interest in [Insert EA Org Name]... we have decided to move forward with other candidates for this role... we're unfortunately [...]
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Outline:
(06:13) A note on AI timelines
(08:51) Time to go forward
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From the publisher's feed