EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Citation: McKay, H. and Shah, S. (2025). Forecasting farmed animal numbers in 2033. Rethink Priorities.

The report is also available on the Rethink Priorities website.

Executive summary

We produced rough-and-ready forecasts of the number of animals farmed in 2033 with the aim of helping advocates and funders with prioritization decisions. We focus on the most numerous groups of farmed animals: broiler chickens, finfishes, shrimps, and select insect species.

Our forecasts suggest almost 6 trillion of these animals could be slaughtered in 2033 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Invertebrates could account for 95% of farmed animals slaughtered in 2033 according to our midpoint estimates. Note that ‘Insects’ only includes black soldier fly larvae and mealworms.

Our midpoint estimates point to a potential fourfold increase in the number of animals slaughtered from 2023 to 2033 and a doubling of the number of animals farmed at any time.

Invertebrates drive the majority of [...]

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Outline:

(00:31) Executive summary

(03:37) Introduction

(05:54) Findings

(05:58) Animal farming is set to grow over the next decade

(08:02) Almost 6 trillion animals could be slaughtered in 2033

(10:45) Today, most farmed animals are invertebrates and this majority will likely increase in the future

(13:07) Insect farming could be the fastest-growing animal agriculture industry going forward, but its future is uncertain

(15:04) Implications for animal advocacy

(16:50) Caveats

(20:45) Acknowledgements

(20:53) Appendix 1: Method

(20:58) Overview

(22:53) Data sources

(24:14) Appendix 2: Graphs with credible intervals

(24:59) References

The original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

May 9th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Rw3iXiJ4Fw4ePu4t6/forecasting-farmed-animal-numbers-in-2033

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Is feeling good the opposite of feeling bad? I interviewed Michael about this topic among others in the first episode of my podcast!

Here's the link to it on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Please reach out if you'd like to be a guest ☀️

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First published:

May 8th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/C5gvbd8DaFX2GEofL/podcast-episode-with-michael-st-jules

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

We made a bet on the AI market crashing by the end of 2026.

The odds are $5k:$25k with an implied probability of 16.67%. If there is no crash, Remmelt pays Marcus $5,000. If there is a crash, Marcus pays Remmelt $25,000.

An AI market crash will be defined, for the purposes of this bet, as at least 2 out of 3 of the following criteria being met.

Here are our criteria:

1. OpenAI's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $1.6 billion.
2. Anthropic's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $400 million.
3. Nvidia's data center revenue in any quarter from now to Q4 2026 is below $8.5 billion. [1]

It's hard to come up with criteria for what constitutes an AI market crash, as many operationalizations face confounding factors that don’t constitute a crash. These criteria were chosen since these are three of the most prominent AI-related [...]

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First published:

May 8th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/G83rs2yex9rmSe6ML/our-bet-on-whether-the-ai-market-will-crash

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a Forum Team crosspost from Substack.

Whither cause prioritization and connection with the good?

There's a trend towards people who once identified as Effective Altruists now identifying solely as “people working on AI safety.”[1] For those in the loop, it feels like less of a trend and more of a tidal wave. There's an increasing sense that among the most prominent (formerly?) EA orgs and individuals, making AGI go well is functionally all that matters. For that end, so the trend goes, the ideas of Effective Altruism have exhausted their usefulness. They pointed us to the right problem – thanks; we’ll take it from here. And taking it from here means building organizations, talent bases, and political alliances at a scale incommensurate with attachment to a niche ideology or moralizing language generally. I think this a dangerous path to go down too hard and my impression [...]

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Outline:

(02:39) What I see

(06:35) The threat means pose to ends

(11:12) Losing something more

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

May 8th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CKKAga4HfQyAranaC/the-soul-of-ea-is-in-trouble

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

A Project of the NYU Wild Animal Welfare Program

Thanks to a generous grant from the New York Community Trust, the NYU Wild Animal Welfare Program is thrilled to announce a first-of-its-kind project at the science-policy nexus: the Wildlife Inclusive Local Development (WILD) Lab.

The WILD Lab is an applied research and outreach initiative dedicated to advancing the welfare of wild animals in urban environments by aiming to understand how urban infrastructure affects wild animals, and how governments and communities can respond.

Our work will involve interdisciplinary research and cross-sectoral collaboration with four main areas of focus:

• Scientific research: Investigating the impacts of urban infrastructure and land use practices on wild animal welfare in cities
   
• GIS mapping: Producing spatial maps documenting urban wildlife and the ecological factors that may influence their wellbeing
   
• Policy analysis: Conducting policy analysis and developing guidance for integrating wild animal welfare [...]

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First published:

May 8th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wqc8eDb9RMhmxdbeZ/announcing-the-wildlife-inclusive-local-development-wild-lab

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

I am Jason Green-Lowe, the executive director of the Center for AI Policy (CAIP). Our mission is to directly convince Congress to pass strong AI safety legislation. As I explain in some detail in this post, I think our organization has been doing extremely important work, and that we’ve been doing well at it. Unfortunately, we have been unable to get funding from traditional donors to continue our operations. If we don’t get more funding in the next 30 days, we will have to shut down, which will damage our relationships with Congress and make it harder for future advocates to get traction on AI governance. In this post, I explain what we’ve been doing, why I think it's valuable, and how your donations could help.

This is the first post in what I expect will be a 3-part series. The first post focuses on CAIP's particular need [...]

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Outline:

(01:33) OUR MISSION AND STRATEGY

(02:59) Our Model Legislation

(04:17) Direct Meetings with Congressional Staffers

(05:20) Expert Panel Briefings

(06:16) AI Policy Happy Hours

(06:43) Op-Eds & Policy Papers

(07:22) Grassroots & Grasstops Organizing

(09:13) Whats Unique About CAIP?

(10:26) OUR ACCOMPLISHMENTS

(10:29) Quantifiable Outputs

(11:21) Changing the Media Narrative

(12:23) Proof of Concept

(13:44) Outcomes -- Congressional Engagement

(18:29) Context

(19:54) OUR PROPOSED POLICIES

(19:58) Mandatory Audits for Frontier AI

(21:23) Liability Reform

(22:32) Hardware Monitoring

(24:11) Emergency Powers

(25:31) Further Details

(25:41) RESPONSES TO COMMON POLICY OBJECTIONS

(25:46) 1. Why not push for a ban or pause on superintelligence research?

(30:17) 2. Why not support bills that have a better chance of passing this year, like funding for NIST or NAIRR?

(32:30) 3. If Congress is so slow to act, why should anyone be working with Congress at all? Why not focus on promoting state laws or voluntary standards?

(35:09) 4. Why would you push the US to unilaterally disarm? Don't we instead need a global treaty regulating AI (or subsidies for US developers) to avoid handing control of the future to China?

(37:24) 5. Why haven't you accomplished your mission yet? If your organization is effective, shouldn't you have passed some of your legislation by now, or at least found some powerful Congressional sponsors for it?

(40:56) OUR TEAM

(41:53) Executive Director

(44:04) Government Relations Team

(45:12) Policy Team

(46:08) Communications Team

(47:29) Operations Team

(48:11) Personnel Changes

(48:49) OUR PLAN IF FUNDED

(51:58) OUR FUNDING SITUATION

(52:02) Our Expenses & Runway

(53:02) No Good Way to Cut Costs

(55:22) Our Revenue

(57:02) Surprise Budget Deficit

(59:00) The Bottom Line

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First published:

May 7th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9uZHnEkhXZjWzia7F/please-donate-to-caip-post-1-of-3-on-ai-governance

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Hi everyone!

I’m Caitlin, and I’ve just kicked off a 6-month, full-time career-transition grant to dive deep into AI policy and risk. You can learn more about my work here.

What I’m Building
I’m launching a TikTok and Instagram channel, @AICuriousGirl, to document my journey as I explore AI governance, misalignment, and the more tangible risks like job displacement and misuse. My goal is to strike a tone of skeptical optimism[1], acknowledging the risks of AI while finding ways to mitigate them.

How You Can Help
My friends and roommates have already given me invaluable feedback and would be thrilled to hear I'm not just relying on them anymore to be reviewers. I’m now seeking:

• Technical and policy experts or other communicators who can
• Volunteer 10-15 minutes/week to review draft videos (1-2 minutes in length) and share quick thoughts on:
  • Clarity
  • Accuracy
  • Suggestions for tighter storytelling

First [...]

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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First published:

May 7th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WzFiEGzxJWrX9pBaw/can-tiktoks-communicate-ai-policy-and-risk

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Introduction

Before November 2022, Effective Altruism only seemed to know success and growth. Ever since November 2022, the EA movement has only seemed to know criticism and scandal. Some have even gone so far to declare that EA is dead or dying,[1] or no longer worth standing behind,[2] or otherwise disassociate themselves from the movement even if outside observers would clearly identify them as being 'EA'.[3] This negative environment that EA finds itself in is, I think, indicative of its state as a social movement in decline.

I was reflecting on this state of affairs, and thinking about what the prospects for recovery for EA as a movement are, and thought that looking at the historical record for comparable case studies might prove enlightening, and provide an interesting perspective to understand the current tribulations EA is facing. This post is the result of that inquiry.

Method

To be open [...]

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Outline:

(00:11) Introduction

(01:07) Method

(04:42) Edits

(04:59) The Case Studies

(05:02) #1 - New Atheism

(08:19) #2 - Saint-Simonianism

(11:07) #3 - The Technocracy Movement

(15:30) #4 - Moral Re-Armament / Buchmanism

(19:07) #5 - Early Quakerism

(22:28) Honourable Mentions

(26:57) Takeaways and Conclusions

(29:55) A Final Note on Historical Violence and its Modern-Day Relevance

The original text contained 17 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

May 7th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uEWZxbLaT2MpuC5BR/5-historical-case-studies-for-an-ea-in-decline

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Fractal is launching a new program to help local networks turn their group chats and meetups into a walkable campus—places that brings together collaboration and classes with co-living and shared gathering spaces.

We're inspired by the history of scenius: tight networks of collaborators which have produced innovations and institutions that we now take for granted (eg the Founding Fathers, Bell Labs, YCombinator, Renaissance Florence, etc). Scenius tends to blossom under particular conditions that we suspect are replicable. Namely: close proximity and a culture of lively collaboration. Our program is designed to replicate these conditions. The win condition would be that sceniuses pop up all over the world, run by collectives that are working on high-impact projects.

We're also excited by the idea that campuses can integrate the work life of ambitious people with a "village" lifestyle that makes it easier to take care of kids and see friends [...]

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First published:

May 6th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kHDxccxF8XRGA2sat/work-with-eas-to-build-a-campus

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Disclaimer: I wanted to get this post out quickly since a work-compatible, remote meditation retreat I’d strongly recommend is starting soon (Thursday May 15th), and likely won’t be run again online for four months. Many of the benefits and insights I discuss are based on personal experience, and not backed with statistics/science. I plan to write a more well-researched piece in the future.

Summary

The jhanas are a set of non-addictive states of extraordinary bliss and peace, typically accessed through meditation (though upregulated breathwork like this may yield quicker results initially). There's an upcoming work-compatible Jhourney retreat (which takes a data-driven, secular approach to jhana meditation) starting next week (May 15). My online Jhourney retreat was easily the best week of my life, and many others have had similar experiences. Many EA friends have also sustainably increased their wellbeing and productivity after doing a Jhourney retreat.

I [...]

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Outline:

(00:37) Summary

(01:56) Jhourney's (data-driven, secular) approach to jhana meditation reliably produces transformative experiences.

(03:14) Large, sustained positive changes can happen quite quickly.

(03:53) People often report significant, lasting benefits to jhana meditation.

(04:55) Downsides:

(06:01) Recommendations:

(07:03) Benefits of jhana meditation that have lasted over a month post-retreat:

(12:29) Additional Content Recommendations

(14:27) Hypotheses for why I had an outlier positive  retreat:

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First published:

May 7th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ProDMd28DBzqQiefA/speedrunning-on-demand-bliss-and-peace-for-improved

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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