October 7-13th will be Animal Welfare vs Global Health Debate Week. We will be discussing the debate statement “It would be better to spend an extra $100m on animal welfare than on global health”.

As in our last debate week, you will be able to take part by:

• Writing posts with the debate week tag (tag TBD- I'll link it here when it is up).
• Voting on the debate banner.
• Using our dialogue feature to co-write a discussion with someone you substantively disagree with. 

This time, we are adding a feature so that you can explain your vote on the banner, and respond to other people's explanations on a post (explained below).

If you’d like to improve the quality of the debate, you can also:

• Comment any links you think should be added to the reading list in this post.
• Reach out to friends who might have [...]

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Outline:

(01:04) Debate week features

(02:15) Why this debate?

(03:33) Crucial considerations

(04:26) Reading list

(04:48) Useful tools

(05:06) FAQs

(05:09) Why $100m?

(05:46) Is this $100m this year? Or over ten years?

(06:07) What is in scope for the debate?

(07:15) Do I have to pretend to be a near-termist for this debate?

(08:02) What should a debate week post look like?

(08:40) Let me know your thoughts

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First published:

September 23rd, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9ad4C4YknLM5fGG4v/announcing-animal-welfare-vs-global-health-debate-week

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This is a link post.

I was encouraged to post this here, but I don't yet have enough EA forum karma to crosspost directly!

Epistemic status: these are my own opinions on AI risk communication, based primarily on my own instincts on the subject and discussions with people less involved with rationality than myself. Communication is highly subjective and I have not rigorously A/B tested messaging. I am even less confident in the quality of my responses than in the correctness of my critique.

If they turn out to be true, these thoughts can probably be applied to all sorts of communication beyond AI risk.

Lots of work has gone into trying to explain AI risk to laypersons. Overall, I think it's been great, but there's a particular trap that I've seen people fall into a few times. I'd summarize it as simplifying and shortening the text of an argument [...]

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Outline:

(01:22) Failure to Adapt Concepts

(03:48) Failure to Filter Information

(05:17) Failure to Sound Like a Human Being

(07:30) Summary

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First published:

September 19th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ukE5ZxDGmFyCev9Lb/the-best-argument-is-not-a-simple-english-yud-essay

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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The head of the Church of England is the second most influential Christian alive today. [1] The current Archbishop, Justin Welby, is speaking at the EA-adjacent Christians for Impact conference with Rory Stewart about faith and poverty.

What should we ask Archbishop Justin in the Q&A?

Feel free to submit anonymous thoughts here.

1. ^

   Source: ChatGPT

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The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

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First published:

September 18th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KqAXYZ34rtD4jmh5r/what-would-you-ask-the-archbishop-of-canterbury

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This post is mostly about our key learnings, impact made and future plans

Thanks to my team for their help in both creating this post and unwavering commitment to driving forward AAC's ambitious plans for animals, in particular Ana Barreiro, Nayan and Engin for their contributions and feedback on this post.

TL;DR:

• For five years, Animal Advocacy Careers (AAC) has tried to direct passionate professionals towards high-impact opportunities that have the potential to help animals the most. 
• We've filled 105 roles in leading animal advocacy organisations, supported over 150 organisations with recruitment, and launched 3 core programs our online course, job board, and career advising service. At the same time, we built a community of 27,500+ supporters across social media, Slack, and email. Our efforts also led to 12 🔶10% Pledges and 11 🔷Trial Pledges at Giving What We Can. We cautiously estimate adding $2.5 million worth of counterfactual impact [...]

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Outline:

(02:19) Overview

(02:45) Background

(04:41) Lessons learned

(04:53) The talent gap is a major bottleneck but has its own natural ceiling and limitations.

(08:58) Measuring meta organisations impact is hard and often flawed, leaving you with long-lasting uncertainty.

(12:04) Focusing too much on lean programmes and not the user

(14:14) Hiring well is really hard, and still neglected

(16:51) The importance of talent density in a small team

(19:37) The Importance of Targeted Channels and Personas

(22:30) The importance of building a funnel

(24:16) Our work over 5 years

(24:20) Outcomes and impacts

(26:42) Organisational size

(27:04) Future Plans

(30:48) Funding Needs

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First published:

September 19th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bC4MmaRQ6ybXKvqav/five-years-of-animal-advocacy-careers-our-journey-to-impact

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve the lives of millions of chickens raised for food in the UK. 

In October 2024 The Humane League UK (THL UK) will be heading to the High Court to challenge the legality of fast-growing breeds of chicken - Frankenchickens.

We need to raise £55k to fund the hearing.

The Jeremy Coller Foundation has pledged to match funding half of the costs up to £28k. We need to raise a further £12.5k to maximise the match funding pot and fully fund the hearing.

Please contact me directly should you wish to donate and fight for 1 billion chickens.

Supporters holding ‘Justice for Chickens’ and ‘End Frankenchickens’ placards outside the High Court

Frankenchickens

‘Frankenchickens’ are selectively bred to grow unnaturally big and fast to maximise profits. They are destined to suffer extremely short and painful lives, suffer heart attacks, are often [...]

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Outline:

(00:06) We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve the lives of millions of chickens raised for food in the UK.

(00:58) Frankenchickens

(01:41) THL UKs three-year legal battle

(02:50) The fight continues

(03:55) Our chances of success

(05:25) How you can help us win

(07:08) To make a donation

(07:27) The Humane League UK

(08:27) Our vision is that by 2050, weve stopped the worst and most widespread abuse of animals raised for food, and they’re treated with far greater compassion.

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First published:

September 18th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oGpeGHh35bHsT8XgA/match-funding-opportunity-to-challenge-the-legality-of

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This is a link post.

Disclaimer: I am a computational physicist's and this investigation is outside of my immediate area of expertise. Feel free to peruse the experiments and take everything I say with appropriate levels of skepticism.

Introduction:

The centre for AI safety is a prominent AI safety research group doing technical AI research as well as regulatory activism. It's headed by Dan Hendrycks, who has a PHD in computer science from Berkeley and some notable contributions to AI research.

Last week CAIS released a blog post, entitled “superhuman automated forecasting”, announcing a forecasting bot developed by a team including Hendrycks, along with a technical report and a website “five thirty nine”, where users can try out the bot for themselves. The blog post makes several grandiose claims, claiming to rebut Nate silvers claims that superhuman forecasting is 15-20 years away, and that:

Our bot performs better than experienced [...]

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First published:

September 18th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/266keE3kHpCYDeDaT/is-superhuman-ai-forecasting-bs-some-experiments-on-the-539

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The "GFI of vegan materials" is shutting down after operating since 2019. They were an ACE-recommended charity at one point. No rationale is given in the announcement. I asked for more, and will update this post if they respond.

Dear Valued Stakeholders,

I am writing to you with mixed emotions to share some important news regarding the future of the Material Innovation Initiative (MII). After a thorough evaluation and much deliberation, the board of directors and the executive leadership team have made the difficult decision to wind down MII's operations. While this marks the end of our journey as an organization, we want to take this opportunity to celebrate our many accomplishments and the tremendous growth of the next-gen materials industry, as well as express our gratitude for your unwavering support over the past five years.

A Legacy of Impact and Innovation

Since our founding in 2019 [...]

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Outline:

(00:58) A Legacy of Impact and Innovation

(03:19) The Evolution of the Industry

(04:10) A Heartfelt Thank You

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First published:

September 17th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vmuw48edv6ACrF7Jo/material-innovation-initiative-mii-shuts-down

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post.

Summary

This post explores the practice of tithing (religiously mandated giving of 10% of income to the church or other recipients) among Christians, including:

1. contemporary beliefs and practices (especially in the US)
2. questions about Biblical interpretation
3. wider theological themes related to Christian giving

This piece is mainly written for a Christian audience but should be useful to anyone interested in the topic.

Some key points

• US Protestants usually believe tithing should be practiced (about 70% think it's a Biblical commandment) 
  • However, only 4% of US Evangelicals donate 10% or more (I didn't find data for all Protestants, but the number is likely similar)
    • yet 38% of Evangelicals believe they are giving one-tenth or more, so they vastly overestimate their giving (again, no data for all Protestants)
  • There are different opinions on who the tithe can be paid to, with a local [...]

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Outline:

(00:09) Summary

(01:54) Introduction

(03:14) Contemporary views and practices

(03:40) US Protestants

(07:04) The Church of England

(07:17) Catholic and Orthodox views

(09:01) The Rabbinical view

(09:28) The main Bible passages

(09:32) The Patriarchs

(11:13) The Torah

(15:55) Malachi 3:6–12

(17:05) Deuterocanonical books (Apocrypha)

(17:45) Matthew 23:23 and Luke 11:42

(20:29) 1 Corinthians 9

(21:51) Hebrews 7:4–10

(23:22) Brief notes on the history of tithing

(26:29) Further discussion

(26:33) A question of covenants

(31:10) Where to give

(34:19) Not tithing and radical generosity

The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

September 16th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dTbXvPRHeaFFZrr8B/tithing-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post.

{Epistemic Status: Repeating critiques from David Thorstad's excellent papers (link, link) and blog, with some additions of my own. The list is not intended to be representative and/or comprehensive for either critiques or rebuttals. Unattributed graphs are my own and more likely to contain errors.}

I am someone generally sympathetic to philosophical longtermism and total utilitarianism, but like many effective altruists, I have often been skeptical about the relative value of actual longtermism-inspired interventions. Unfortunately, though, for a long time I was unable to express any specific, legible critiques of longtermism other than a semi-incredulous stare. Luckily, this condition has changed in the last several months since I started reading David Thorstad's excellent blog (and papers) critiquing longtermism.[1] His points cover a wide range of issues, but in this post, I would like to focus on a couple of crucial and plausibly incorrect modeling assumptions [...]

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Outline:

(01:14) Model assumptions noted by Thorstad

(01:18) 1. Baseline risk (blog post)

(03:54) 2. Future Population (blog post)

(06:21) Other model assumptions/considerations I think are important

(06:27) 1. Intervention decay

(08:28) 2. Suffering risks (S-risks)

(11:06) Counter-arguments for the value of existential risk reduction

(11:11) 1. The ‘time of perils hypothesis’ versus ‘baseline risk’ and ‘intervention decay’

(14:06) 2. Hedonic lotteries

(15:22) Final thoughts

The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

The original text contained 11 images which were described by AI.

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First published:

September 18th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2eYxQDbPbqHypFihe/sensitive-assumptions-in-longtermist-modeling

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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What follows is a lightly edited version of the thesis I wrote for my Bioethics MA program. I'm hoping to do more with this in the future, including seeking publication and/or expanding it into a dissertation or short book. In its current state, I feel like it is in pretty rough shape. I hope it is useful and interesting for people as puzzled by this very niche philosophical worry as me, but I'm also looking for feedback on how I can improve it. There's no guarantee I will take it, or even do anything further with this piece, but I would still appreciate the feedback. I may or may not interact much in the comments section.

    

        I. Introduction:

Duration is an essential component of many theories of wellbeing. While there are theories of wellbeing that are sufficiently discretized that time isn’t so obviously relevant to them [...]

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Outline:

(00:46) I. Introduction:

(06:07) II. Subjective Time is Real:

(15:20) III. Objective Time is Real:

(21:02) IV. Subjective Time, Simulation, and Delusion:

(30:02) V. What is Subjective Time, Really?

(40:42) VI. It's Not the Speed of Just any Thought:

(43:17) VII. Container of Wellbeing, Versus Subject of Wellbeing:

(52:38) VIII. Are We Our Thoughts, or Our Feelings?

(59:57) IX. Illusionism, Phenomenology, and Measurement:

(01:10:30) X. Conclusion:

(01:16:11) Acknowledgements:

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First published:

September 15th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wWFMjJpxgWx6KjxEm/the-subject-in-subjective-time-a-new-approach-to-aggregating

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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