(Link-post to https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.19389 )

I've written a new paper some of you may be interested in. It was written in response to the problems arising in decision theory, economics, and ethics where standard approaches to evaluating an option leads to divergent sums or integrals. This makes it hard to evaluate and compare things like unending streams of value, when each option under consideration would standardly be assigned the value _+infty_. This leads theorists to develop a variety of conflicting approaches to making these comparisons and often even leads them to modify their theory of finite cases — adding things like a requirement for bounded utility or discounting of future utility in order to make the infinities go away.

I believe this problem is mainly caused by the use of the extended reals, which are an impoverished system of infinite numbers which is obviously not expressive enough to solve the [...]

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We’re building a frictionless way to turn everyday transactions into donations to the world's most effective charities, and we’re seeking funding and partners to accelerate our growth.

GoodWallet: Making Effective Giving Frictionless

We’re building GoodWallet, a digital wallet that makes donating to high-impact charities as simple and seamless as sending money to a friend. Our simple, flexible design supports a wide range of real-world uses, such as repayments between friends, tips for creators, business payments, and peer-to-peer fundraising. By embedding effective giving into everyday financial flows, we aim to unlock new counterfactual donations and introduce more people to the principles of effective altruism.

For more on our functionality and vision, see our last post from July:
🔗 GoodWallet: Turning Everyday Repayments into High-Impact Donations

Since launching in May 2025, we’ve grown to 150+ early users, processed $1,500+ in donations, and secured conditional 501(c)(3) fiscal sponsorship with SparkWell, allowing us [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) GoodWallet: Making Effective Giving Frictionless

(01:33) The Core Team that Got Us Here

(02:24) How We Would Use Funding

(03:54) Our Theory of Change

(04:20) Please Reach Out

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Note: I am the web programme director at 80,000 Hours and the view expressed here currently helps shape the web team's strategy. However, this shouldn't be taken to be expressing something on behalf of 80k as a whole, and writing and posting this memo was not undertaken as an 80k project.

80,000 Hours, where I work, has made helping people make AI go well [1]its focus. As part of this work, I think my team should continue to:

• Talk about / teach ideas and thinking styles that have historically been central to effective altruism (e.g. via our career guide, cause analysis content, and podcasts)
• Encourage people to get involved in the EA community explicitly and via linking to content.

I wrote this memo for the MCF (Meta Coordination Forum), because I wasn't sure this was intuitive to others. I think talking about EA ideas and encouraging people to get [...]

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Outline:

(01:21) 1. The effort to make AGI go well needs people who are flexible and equipped to to make their own good decisions

(02:10) Counterargument: Agendas are starting to take shape, so this is less true than it used to be.

(02:43) 2. Making AGI go well calls for a movement that thinks in explicitly moral terms

(03:59) Counterargument: movements can be morally good without being explicitly moral, and being morally good is whats important.

(04:41) 3. EA is (A) at least somewhat able to equip people to flexibly make good decisions, (B) explicitly morally focused.

(04:52) (A) EA is at least somewhat able to equip people to flexibly make good decisions

(06:04) (B) EA is explicitly morally focused

(06:49) Counterargument: A different flexible & explicitly moral movement could be better for trying to make AGI go well.

(07:49) Appendix: What are the relevant alternatives?

(12:13) Appendix 2: anon notes from others

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“Bracketing Cluelessness” is a philosophy paper by Sylvester Kollin, Anthony DiGiovanni, Nicolas Macé, and myself, which presents a new approach to decision-making in the face of consequentialist cluelessness.

Abstract:

Consequentialists must take into account all possible consequences of their actions, including those in the far future. But due to the difficulty of getting a grasp on these consequences and producing non-arbitrary probabilities for them, it seems that consequentialists should often consider themselves clueless about which option is best. Contrary to orthodox consequentialism, however, there is a common-sense intuition that one should bracket those consequences which one is clueless about. Building on a model involving imprecise probability, we develop two novel alternatives to orthodoxy which capture this intuition. On bottom-up bracketing, we set aside those beneficiaries for whom we are clueless what would be best, and then base the overall verdict on the remainder. On top-down [...]

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Linkpost URL:
https://longtermrisk.org/files/Bracketing_Cluelessness.pdf

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Audio note: this article contains 126 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description.

This is a less formal overview of the key ideas in the working paper “Bracketing Cluelessness”. There is also a standalone linkpost for the paper, which I’ve split off from this post, since this one contains personal commentary (not necessarily endorsed by my co-authors).

• We may be clueless about how our actions affect aggregate welfare: we may not be able to say any intervention is better, worse, or exactly as good as another, in terms of its expected total consequences. There is an intuition that the appropriate response is to base our decisions on relatively robust and predictable effects, and that this favors near-term interventions like global health and animal welfare. But there is not yet [...]

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Outline:

(00:41) Summary

(04:05) Introduction

(07:14) The basic idea

(11:49) In more detail: Formalism and major challenges

(11:55) Cluelessness and imprecise probabilities

(13:24) Defining bracketing

(21:45) Theoretical challenges

(21:49) What are the locations of value?

(23:52) Cyclicity

(24:48) Sequential decision-making

(25:35) Further implications of bracketing

(25:52) Getting off the train to crazy town: Why and where

(27:46) Bracketing beyond locations of value

(29:43) Conclusion

(30:46) Acknowledgements

(31:07) References

(31:13) Appendix: More on cyclicity

(31:18) Example of a cycle

(33:58) Versions of the objection from cyclicity and our responses

(34:04) The semantic argument

(35:14) The synchronic (one-off) choice argument

(36:36) The dynamic choice (value-pump) argument

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The content of this report was written by me, Michael Dickens, and does not represent the views of Rethink Priorities. The executive summary was prepared by Rethink Priorities; I edited the final revision, so any mistakes are my own.

Executive Summary

Why AI Landscape Research and Incubating New Projects Matters

TAI may be a decade or less away, and misalignment could be catastrophic. We need repeated fast, rigorous scans of the field—what exists, what works, where funding and talent are concentrated, and where the next dollar or FTE most reduces risk. To that end, Rethink Priorities commissioned a rapid landscape analysis to surface neglected, high-leverage opportunities. The report, authored by Michael Dickens (views his own), reviews 34 areas of interest and identifies 77 organizations in the relevant fields.

Key Findings

1. Implementation-focused policy advocacy and communication are neglected

Both AI-safety technical research and [...]

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Outline:

(00:26) Executive Summary

(00:29) Why AI Landscape Research and Incubating New Projects Matters

(01:09) Key Findings

(01:13) 1. Implementation-focused policy advocacy and communication are neglected

(02:56) 2. Non-technical, short-timelines work is undervalued

(04:02) 3. Work on AI for animal welfare is neglected & high-leverage

(05:18) Introduction

(08:30) Prelude

(09:58) Some positions Im going to take as given

(10:34) Definitions

(11:28) Prioritization

(12:31) Why not technical safety research?

(13:44) Why not AI policy research?

(15:25) Downsides of AI policy/advocacy (and why theyre not too big)

(21:35) What kinds of policies might reduce AI x-risk?

(23:41) Some AI policy ideas I like

(25:47) Maybe prioritizing post-TAI animal welfare

(27:08) Why not prioritize digital minds / S-risks / moral error / better futures / AI misuse x-risk / gradual disempowerment?

(30:44) Whos working on them?

(32:19) Some relevant research agendas

(33:48) General recommendations

(33:52) Advocacy should emphasize x-risk and misalignment risk

(36:56) Prioritize work that pays off if timelines are short

(38:06) Top project ideas

(38:24) Talk to policy-makers about AI x-risk

(42:35) Write AI x-risk legislation

(46:07) Advocate to change AI training to make LLMs more animal-friendly

(49:48) Develop new plans / evaluate existing plans to improve post-TAI animal welfare

(54:07) Honorable mentions

(54:10) Directly push for an international AI treaty

(56:06) Organize a voluntary commitment by AI scientists not to build advanced AI

(01:00:17) Peaceful protests

(01:04:08) Media about dangers of AI

(01:05:54) Message testing

(01:07:33) Host a website for discussion of AI safety and other important issues

(01:09:28) List of other project ideas

(01:10:09) AI-for-animals ideas

(01:10:14) Neartermist animal advocacy

(01:12:11) Using TAI to improve farm animal welfare

(01:14:45) Lobby governments to include animal welfare in AI regulations

(01:15:56) Traditional animal advocacy targeted at frontier AI developers

(01:17:14) Research which alignment strategies are more likely to be good for animals

(01:18:44) AI policy/advocacy ideas

(01:18:49) Improving US China relations / international peace

(01:20:31) Talk to international peace orgs about AI

(01:21:23) Increasing government expertise about AI

(01:24:32) Policy/advocacy in China

(01:26:29) Corporate campaigns to advocate for safety

(01:28:05) Develop AI safety/security/evaluation standards

(01:29:37) Slow down Chinese AI development via ordinary foreign policy

(01:32:07) Whistleblower protection/support

(01:33:26) Opinion polling

(01:34:32) Help AI company employees improve safety within their companies

(01:35:35) Direct talks with AI companies to make them safer

(01:36:58) Monitor AI companies on safety standards

(01:38:09) Create a petition or open letter on AI risk

(01:39:37) Create demonstrations of dangerous AI capabilities

(01:41:10) Sue OpenAI for violating its nonprofit mission

(01:42:50) Send people AI safety books

(01:44:15) AI research ideas

(01:44:34) Research on how to get people to extrapolate

(01:47:33) Investigate how to use AI to reduce other x-risks

(01:50:10) A short-timelines alignment plan that doesnt rely on bootstrapping

(01:52:15) Rigorous analysis of the various ways alignment bootstrapping could fail

(01:53:31) Future work

(01:53:35) Pros and cons of slowing down AI development, with numeric credences

(01:55:02) Quantitative model on AI x-risk vs. other x-risks

(01:56:21) Deeper investigation of the AI arms race situation

(01:56:53) Does slowing down/pausing AI help solve non-alignment problems?

(01:58:49) Determine when will be the right time to push for strong restrictions on AI (if not now)

(01:59:49) Supplements

The original text contained 8 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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Last week I asked a group of very online EAs if they’d heard of the Opportunities board. To my surprise, not one of them had.

So before sharing recent updates: The Opportunities board lists opportunities that require less time or expertise than a full-time role. It includes internships, volunteer opportunities, part-time roles, events, funding opportunities, training programs, and more. If you know someone who would benefit from the board, consider letting them know it exists!

We’ve rolled out some UI updates

You can now access all filters without scrolling, and we’re making space to add more. You can also see more information about the opportunity up front: which type of opportunity it is, the exact time it got posted, and how many opportunities are currently on the board.

In the next few weeks we'll also add bigger pieces of functionality:

• Email alerts
• More filters (tell [...]

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Outline:

(00:44) We've rolled out some UI updates

(01:18) Whats next for the board

(02:01) Ways you can help

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Last week I asked a group of very online EAs if they’d heard of the Opportunities board. To my surprise, not one of them had.

So before sharing recent updates: The Opportunities board lists opportunities that require less time or expertise than a full-time role. It includes internships, volunteer opportunities, part-time roles, events, funding opportunities, training programs, and more. If you know someone who would benefit from the board, consider letting them know it exists!

We’ve rolled out some UI updates

You can now access all filters without scrolling, and we’re making space to add more. You can also see more information about the opportunity up front: which type of opportunity it is, the exact time it got posted, and how many opportunities are currently on the board.

In the next few weeks we'll also add bigger pieces of functionality:

• Email alerts
• More filters (tell [...]

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Outline:

(00:46) We've rolled out some UI updates

(01:31) Whats next for the board

(02:12) Ways you can help

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by Johnny Stengel – Political Advisor, Lobbyist, and Member of Effective Altruism Germany e.V.

Introduction

When people in the Effective Altruism community talk about “policy impact,” lobbying often comes up as one of the highest-leverage activities. But the practice of lobbying is rarely demystified. What does it actually look like? Who can do it effectively? How do you measure whether your hours in Brussels or Berlin truly shifted anything?

I want to share my experience — as someone who built a volunteer-based lobbying network from scratch, moved into federal and then EU-level policy engagement, and who now works across climate, AI, and governance issues. My aim here is not to glorify “influence” but to make the practice tangible, to outline what skills and strategies matter, and to highlight the systemic levers where lobbying may make the most difference for future generations.

How I Found Myself in Lobbying

In [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Introduction

(01:10) How I Found Myself in Lobbying

(02:54) What Lobbying really looks like

(04:35) Skills, Characters, and Misconceptions

(05:53) Collective Impact, Not Ego

(06:43) Windows of Opportunity

(07:31) Big Levers Beyond Traditional Lobbying

(08:22) Where the Biggest Impact Might Lie

(09:26) What Kind of People We Need

(09:59) Concluding Thoughts

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This memo was originally written for the Meta Coordination Forum 2025. I’m sharing this here (with some edits) in the hope it will be useful for others as well. (my other MCF memos are here: How High Impact Professionals (HIP) can support you; More Sharing of Top Candidates - Easy, High-Impact, Underused)

Disclaimer: I wrote this fairly quickly - no further research done compared to the data we have already available.

I’ve learned a lot from running programs for experienced professionals who are short on time but eager to make a bigger impact. Below are a few of the most transferable lessons - especially relevant if you're designing programs, courses, or communities in the high-impact space.

Drive action

Build actions gradually

We don’t ask participants to quit their job in Week 1. Instead:

• Start with lower-bar, outward-facing actions (e.g. adding their mission statement to their LinkedIn, reaching out [...]

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Outline:

(01:00) Drive action

(01:03) Build actions gradually

(01:30) Celebrate actions and wins

(01:46) Offer people impactful steps inside their control

(02:12) Keeping your top performers engaged

(02:16) Maximise value per 15 minutes

(02:41) Select top participants

(03:04) Build a high-trust environment

(03:09) 1:1s in Week 1

(03:30) Mastermind sessions

(03:56) Design around your high-performers

(04:15) Make networking easy and low-effort

(04:19) Make it easy to find connections

(04:34) Include weekly 1:1 nudges

(04:50) Build in-person connections around conferences

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