Econoday Unplugged

Our panel discusses the outlook for Asia and whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will indeed stick to its tightening bias, which is a similar question for the FOMC and how dovish they might sound at this week's meeting. For Europe, risks include general slowing especially for Italy and of course Brexit and how the markets and the Bank of England are reacting to events.

Chinese GDP is slowing, European industrial production is at a standstill and the Washington shutdown is holding back the United States. Discussion includes why U.S. indicators are still favorable and what the best indicator is to judge Brexit developments.

The Brexit question for the U.K. may or may not be in a late end game as Jeremy Hawkins explores the political issues and economic risks. For the U.S., Mark Pender talks about what economic numbers are still available and what the outlook is for coming employment data and whether they will be affected by the government shutdown.

With Brexit hobbling, Germany slowing and the U.S. government shutting down, the New Year opens with as much uncertainty and investor caution as ever. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest details including which U.S. indicators are affected by the shutdown and which are not.

An early signal on what to expect for 2019 will come on the third week of January when the House of Commons votes on Teresa May's Brexit withdraw bill. For the U.S., the first signal for 2019 will come from Wednesday's FOMC forecast and whether the markets can expect fewer rate hikes ahead, or perhaps no hikes at all.

The U.S. employment report for November was on the soft side, setting up what could be a backing off in 2019 rate hikes at next week's FOMC. Also discussed are outlooks for Brexit, European Central Bank policy, and riot-stricken France.

A run down of central banks from Canada to India to Europe points to steady monetary policy and following last week's dovish turn from Jerome Powell, fewer rates may now be the call for the Federal Reserve. Our panel also updates Brexit risks, the latest data out of the Eurozone, and a possible upside jolt for Friday's U.S. employment report.

Theresa May appears to be well short of the votes needed in the House of Commons to secure her agreement with the Eurozone, raising questions over her leadership and also whether new amendments or new elections are in store. For the U.S., early indications for fourth-quarter GDP are mixed with net exports continuing to weaken while inventories continue to build.

A Fed tightening may be just a matter of time but sluggish European household demand leaves an ECB rate hike a distant prospect. Little excitement is expected from the week’s RBA and RBNZ announcements but speculation about a Brexit deal should keep investors focussed on UK financial markets, just in case...

US GDP proved strong on the surface in the third quarter but mixed in the details while expectations for Friday's employment report are upbeat though year-on-year wages are expected to jump. In Europe, flash GDP data for the third quarter show growth slowing to a 4-year low with the political shake up in Germany adding further uncertainty.