Econoday Unplugged

The Royal Wedding was definitely big and enough to give a boost to UK GDP, while in the US it's manufacturing, not the consumer, that's the economic driver.

Consumer spending in the US got off to a decent second-quarter start as did the Chinese industrial sector, in contrast to the UK where weaker growth is raising questions over Bank of England policy.

Low growth and low inflation raise new doubts over the end of quantitative easing in Europe and rate hikes in the UK, while in the U.S. the focus is shifting to the risk of higher inflation. We also update the latest on Chinese economic data and trade talks.

Slowing growth is the theme in Europe but less so in the U.S. where inflation is making a sudden appearance. For Japan, however, steady is the theme.

GDP forecasts for first-quarter growth in the Eurozone and U.S. are subdued while in Japan, the struggle to boost inflation continues.

Data out of Europe have been disappointing with China steady and very predictable. In the U.S., tariff effects are beginning to appear.

Hints of capacity stress and price pressures are appearing in US factory data but only hints, while factory production may actually be holding back growth in Europe.

German retail sales have fallen for three straight months while indications on Europe factory sector are slowing visibly, a contrast to the U.S. where vehicle sales may be rebounding and factory indications are on the rise and pointing to capacity stress. Also discussed is the latest out of Australia where faster growth is the risk.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in addition to targeting inflation, is adding the goal of maximizing employment and is the latest central bank to add new mandates to increase flexibility.

A new chief is the focus for China's central bank while inflation is the question for both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. And it is definitely inflation, its risk or its absence, that the results of tomorrow's FOMC will turn on.