The July jobs report delivered a genuine puzzle: payrolls fell by 23,000, yet the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the details — from the ADP private-sector estimate of just 44,000 added workers to the 158.9 million total nonfarm payrolls — and explain how the household survey and the establishment survey can tell different stories. They also look at what this means for the Federal Reserve's next move, especially with core PCE still running at 2.6 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.7 percent. If you've ever wondered how a headline number can be negative while the labor market still looks tight, this episode unpacks the mechanics. Plus, a quick note on how listener support keeps the show ad-free.

#JobsReport #Payrolls #UnemploymentRate #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #CorePCE #TreasuryYields #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #HouseholdSurvey #EstablishmentSurvey #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators

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The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why did payrolls shrink yet unemployment drop? They dig into the household survey versus the establishment survey, the divergence in hiring trends, and what it signals for the Fed's next move. With real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent and core PCE still sticky, the hosts connect the dots between a cooling labor market, inflation, and the yield curve's stubborn refusal to predict recession. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves.

#JobsReport #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #LaborMarket #Inflation #CorePCE #GDP #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #JulyJobs #PayrollsDecline #HiringSlowdown #RecessionWatch #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking anomaly: the yield curve has been inverted for years, yet the economy keeps humming along. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.66 percent and the two-year at 4.36 percent, the curve is still inverted, but the economy isn't behaving like a recession is imminent. Lucas explains why this time might be different—how global demand for long-term bonds, a post-pandemic term premium reset, and the Fed's balance sheet have scrambled the signal. Luna brings data on jobless claims and consumer spending to show why the curve's predictive power has faded. They explore what the curve is actually telling us now: not a recession signal, but a sign of structural shifts in how the economy borrows and saves. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves in August 2026.

#YieldCurve #InvertedCurve #EconomicIndicators #RecessionSignal #TreasuryYields #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #MacroData #FederalReserve #JoblessClaims #ConsumerSpending #TermPremium #BondMarket #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast

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The U.S. economy grew at just 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.1 percent in the first. Meanwhile, CPI has fallen for three straight months and core PCE remains sticky. Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence: why real growth is slowing even as inflation cools, and what it means for the Fed's next move. They look at the July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, and the latest JOLTS data showing job openings at 7.4 million. They also examine the role of inventories, which rose to $2.7 trillion, and whether the economy is heading for a soft landing or a stall. If you've ever wondered why the GDP deflator and core PCE tell different stories, or why jobless claims are low while hiring is weak, this episode breaks it down with clear examples and a dose of healthy skepticism.

#GDP #RealGDP #Inflation #CPIData #CorePCE #FederalReserve #JobsReport #JOLTS #EconomicGrowth #SoftLanding #Economics #MacroData #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #EconomicIndicators #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #DataAnalysis

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Core inflation is cooling slower than headline CPI, and the latest data shows why. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the gap between the 332.6 CPI reading and the 336.1 core, using July's soft ADP report and the 10-year breakeven at 2.22 percent to illustrate. They explain how shelter costs, used cars, and services keep core sticky, why the Federal Reserve under Warsh cares more about core than headline, and what it means for your wallet and hiring. Along the way, they dig into the disconnect between soft survey data and solid hard data, and why a 76.1 percent capacity utilization rate matters. You'll come away understanding why core CPI is the number to watch, and how the Fed's inflation fight is evolving in 2026.

#CoreCPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #PCE #ADP #JobMarket #CapacityUtilization #BreakevenRate #ShelterCosts #CPI #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedWatch #InflationData #MacroData #Episode151

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In this milestone episode 150 of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into the gap between real and nominal GDP. With real GDP growth cooling to 1.5 percent while nominal GDP climbs above $32 trillion, what does this divergence tell us about the economy's health? They explore how the GDP deflator—the bridge between the two—reveals underlying inflation pressures, and why this matters for your investments and the Fed's next move. Using the latest data, they break down why real growth feels sluggish even as nominal numbers look strong, and what that means for earnings, interest rates, and your wallet. If you've ever wondered why economists obsess over 'real' versus 'nominal' figures, this episode makes it clear, with practical takeaways for navigating the current market.

#RealGDP #NominalGDP #GDPDeflator #EconomicIndicators #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MacroData #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Investing #MarketTrends #EconomicGrowth #CPI #PCE #MonetaryPolicy #Podcast

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In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into the puzzle of the moment: headline CPI is cooling, but core PCE is still running warm. With June CPI down to 332.6 and core PCE up to 130.3, the two indicators are telling different stories about inflation. Lucas explains why the Fed leans on core PCE, how housing and services keep it sticky, and what the latest jobless claims and GDP slowdown mean for the policy path. If you've ever wondered why headline inflation and the Fed's preferred measure can diverge, this episode gives you the concrete numbers and the reasoning behind them.

#CorePCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #GDP #JoblessClaims #Housing #ServicesInflation #MonetaryPolicy #MacroEconomics #Economics #Business #Finance #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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The latest CPI print shows headline inflation cooling, but core inflation remains stubbornly high. Lucas and Luna dig into the divergence, looking at shelter costs, services inflation, and the Fed's favorite gauge, core PCE, which is still running at 3.3 percent. They discuss why the CPI and PCE tell different stories, what it means for the Fed's next moves, and why the gap between goods and services inflation is widening. Along the way, they touch on the manufacturing survey showing inflation worries worse than pandemic era, and the political pressure on the Fed. If you've ever wondered why the inflation number you hear on the news doesn't match your own grocery bill, this episode has the answer.

#Inflation #Economics #FederalReserve #CPI #CoreInflation #ConsumerPrices #ShelterCosts #ServicesInflation #CorePCE #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #FedWatch #Manufacturing #InflationExpectations #MacroData #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been nagging macro watchers: real GDP is growing at just 1.5 percent annualized, yet core inflation measures are sending conflicting signals. They unpack the GDP deflator's rise, the surprising cooling in CPI, and why the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge remains stubbornly sticky. With breakevens ticking up and jobless claims jumping, they explore what this divergence means for the Fed's next move and for your portfolio. If you've ever wondered why inflation headlines feel contradictory, this episode gives you the framework to make sense of it all.

#GDPDeflator #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Macro #CPI #BreakevenRates #JobsReport #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FinancialLiteracy #MarketAnalysis #Economy2026 #DataDriven

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In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore why real GDP growth slowed to 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, even as nominal GDP expanded and inflation cooled. They break down the role of the GDP deflator, the divergence between real and nominal growth, and what this means for business investment, consumer spending, and Federal Reserve policy. With core inflation still above the Fed's target at 3.3 percent, they discuss whether the economy is heading for a soft landing or a stagflationary pause. Tune in for a clear, data-driven look at the numbers behind the headlines.

#GDPGrowth #RealGDP #NominalGDP #GDPDeflator #Inflation #CoreCPI #FederalReserve #MacroData #Economics #SoftLanding #Stagflation #EconomicIndicators #BusinessInvestment #ConsumerSpending #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicAnalysis #MacroEconomics

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