Economic forecasting is particularly challenging during global crises, with predictions often hampered by uncertainty and external factors.

Hwee Kwan Chow and Keen Meng Choy from Singapore Management University examine Singapore’s GDP and inflation forecasts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, uncovering the influence of government projections and herding behaviour that affect prediction accuracy.

Read the original research: doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02311-8