Many economic observers thought the US and China were getting close to an agreement until President Trump changed course, announcing a new round of tariffs on Chinese exports—leading to renewed worries of an impending trade war that could impact US consumers and the economy. But this round of tariffs will likely play out much like last year’s, getting lost in the shuffle of other, more important factors impacting the economy today.

Fluctuations in official unemployment metrics can be caused by a number of things, from seasonal distortions like holidays and bad weather to changing outlooks among today’s workers. April’s jobless claims were slightly elevated—but this could actually be seen as a positive. People are entering the job market as they see more opportunities open up, but finding and starting a new position takes time.

Despite last week’s economic report that showed a solid 3.2 percent growth in GDP, futures rates dropped almost 10 basis points. What gives? A closer look at jobless claims, inventory surges and PCE inflation reveal how the market may have mistakenly judged a book by its cover.

Later this week, the government will release its first estimate of first-quarter GDP growth, following forecasts that have been inconsistent over the last few months. Even though GDP tends to get the most attention and dominate opinions about the economy, there are other factors that can help tell a more complete story—such as weekly jobless claims, recent consumer data, demographic gaps and the future of productivity-enhancing technology.

The minutes from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting provide a glimpse into the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady this year. But are critics right to call this policy too tight? Some indicators, such as the flat yield curve, may have validated these concerns in the past, but the strength of the economy and the stock market substantiate the Fed’s patience today.

The latest economic updates suggest the Fed won’t be cutting rates any time soon—January GDP showed a big increase, car sales soared, jobless claims plunged and payrolls bounced back. These all suggest the US economy is reaching cruising altitude, and the Fed’s goal now will likely be to avoid overstimulation as the expansion continues.

Based on news reports, some people have the impression that the economy lost momentum this winter—but would that be such a bad thing? In this episode, we talk economic cruising altitude, jobless claims and the future of growth as we head into the second quarter of the year.

During the recession, the Federal Reserve bought a lot of securities—a process known as quantitative easing, or QE. The plan was then to unwind all of those excess reserves back to pre-recession levels, a process known as QT, or quantitative tightening. But now, the Fed appears to be rethinking its balance sheet strategy.

Now that the US economy has reached full employment, many people are worried that we’re headed for a recession—in the past, the economy didn’t stay at full employment for more than a year or two before entering another downturn. But is the business cycle really that predictable?

The public holds more than $16 trillion of federal debt—78 percent of GDP—and many people are baffled that it gets so little attention in market discussions. In this episode, we explore whether the deficit matters, if it will drive interest rates up and whether the fiscal picture has the potential to choke the economy.

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