Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen recorded this month’s episode against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Following US–Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation across the region, the situation is a reminder of how quickly geopolitical shocks can ripple through global systems - from energy markets to supply chains. Rather than trying to predict outcomes, the grey elephant lens allows us to explore the structural signals sitting beneath the headlines.

One such signal is the rise of prediction sites like Polymarket, where users can bet on real-world geopolitical outcomes. While novel on the surface, platforms like this reflect deeper shifts in how information, expectations, and risk are distributed and priced. Hear how Europe’s evolving role in a more multipolar world, is a sign that the region is moving beyond regulation, toward building greater strategic capability around critical materials, supply chains, and technology independence.

We are also joined by TomorrowToday Digital Director, Jude Foulston, to share how the team’s participation in 1% for the Planet is supporting a grassroots education initiative in South Africa - a reminder that businesses can translate purpose into practical action through targeted social investment.

Our guest this month is James Cockayne, New South Wales Anti-slavery Commissioner, to explain how modern slavery is a grey elephant embedded within global supply chains. Although widely acknowledged, it is still often treated as a compliance issue rather than a strategic leadership challenge. James explains why regulators are moving beyond disclosure toward stronger human-rights due diligence, and why organisations that genuinely understand their supply chains are better positioned to manage risk, strengthen resilience, and create long-term value.

Key takeaways -

🌍 Multipolarity and shifting power blocs

Evolving global order and regional power blocs are increasingly shaping trade, technology, and security dynamics.

🎲 Prediction markets and new information signals

Platforms that allow betting on geopolitical events point to changing dynamics in how expectations, intelligence, and information circulate globally.

🇪🇺 Europe’s strategic awakening

Europe is beginning to move beyond its traditional role as a regulatory power and is investing more deliberately in industrial capability, supply chain resilience, and technological sovereignty.

🏗️ The overlooked constraints of the next economy

Critical materials, water availability, and aging infrastructure are emerging as structural constraints that could shape the next phase of economic and technological growth.

🐘 Modern slavery as a grey elephant

Modern slavery remains widely visible but frequently underweighted in corporate risk management, often treated as a reporting exercise rather than a strategic issue.

🔗 Supply chains, governance, and ownership

Addressing modern slavery requires clearer executive ownership and a shift from compliance toward deeper supply chain visibility and collaborative risk management.

🤝 Stewardship and long-term value creation

Businesses that build stronger relationships across their supply chains are better positioned to manage disruption and protect long-term value.

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Connect with Graeme and Dean:

1. Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here
2. Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here

www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants

TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.

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February 2026 already feels like a year. In this month’s episode, Graeme Codrington explores two forces leaders can’t afford to treat as background noise: geopolitical rupture and the unseen diversity inside their own organisations.

Graeme turns to China to illustrate what Kairos readiness looks like in practice: long-term planning, disciplined execution, and the ability to move decisively when the world fractures. He explores China’s five-year planning model, the intent behind the 2035 and 2049 roadmaps, and why preparedness consistently beats reaction.

Later in the episode, Graeme is joined by Dr. Sarah Babb to examine neurodiversity as a leadership and performance issue-not an HR side topic. They unpack what neurodiversity really means, why “normal” is the wrong frame, and how organisations can move beyond individual accommodations toward system-level neuroinclusion that strengthens innovation, talent, and customer experience.

Whether you’re looking at global strategy or organisational design, the message is consistent: what you ignore today shapes your constraints tomorrow.

Key takeaways -

🧭 You can’t keep up - so change how you engage

1. The world has moved beyond “transition” into rupture: fast, non-linear change that breaks old assumptions.
2. Your edge comes from frameworks, not feeds.

🦅 Kairos vs Chronos: the moment you can grab

1. Chronos is chronological time; Kairos is the window of opportunity.
2. Leaders win by being ready to move when the moment arrives-before competitors even realise it’s here.

🇨🇳 China as a strategic planning case study

1. China’s rolling five-year plan model has delivered an unusually high proportion of targets over decades.
2. The release of the 2035 and 2049 plans is a signal: China is aligning short-, medium-, and long-term execution.
3. Key shifts to watch:
4. Incentives for Chinese firms to globalise and welcome partners
5. A changing stance on intellectual property and global standards
6. Rapid trade responsiveness as geopolitical relationships fracture

🧠 Neurodiversity: the “unseen diversity” organisations are missing

1. Dr. Babb frames neurodiversity as normal variation in brain functioning, not a neat binary of “typical vs divergent.”
2. The opportunity is both internal (talent, innovation, resilience) and external (customers, product design, accessibility).
3. The real question for leaders: Do you want diversity of thinking-and are you prepared to support it?

🏢 What organisations should do now

1. Move beyond one-off programs and confidential “accommodations.”
2. Build strengths-based, skills-based teams and systems that let different profiles thrive.
3. Treat neuroinclusion as strategy: culture, policy, design, and leadership capability-not a side initiative.

💸 The market opportunity is real

1. Products, services, environments, and experiences designed for neurodiverse customers aren’t niche-done well, they create competitive advantage and loyalty.
2. Small design shifts (sensory load, clarity, choice, accessibility) can unlock demand without massive overhaul.

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Connect with Graeme and Dean:

1. Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here
2. Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here

www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants

TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.

Email [email protected]

The future isn’t hiding in forecasts or trend reports. It’s already standing in front of us.

In this special episode, Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen examine the grey elephants already reshaping leadership, strategy, and society - highly probable, high-impact forces that are now moving from theory into reality.

From human enhancement to climate-driven insurance collapse, antimicrobial resistance and AI-driven deception to fragile tech investment models and an increasingly multipolar world, this episode challenges leaders to abandon passive optimism and adopt deliberate action.

The message is clear: 2026 won’t reward those who wait.

But it will reward those who recognise what’s already here - and respond decisively.

Key takeaways -

🐘 The Grey Elephant mindset

• Grey elephants aren’t surprises - they’re obvious forces we avoid discussing.
• 2026 will reward leaders who are conscious, decisive, and proactive, even if decisions aren’t perfect.

🏟️ Enhanced Games & human augmentation

• A proposed 2026 sporting event where performance enhancement is transparent and allowed.
• Less about sport, more about a shift from paternalism → autonomy and changing rules of competition.
• A signal for societal fractures and new definitions of “fairness”.

🌍 Climate change meets insurance reality

• Insurers quietly withdrawing from high-risk regions or pricing cover out of reach.
• Knock-on effects: housing markets, migration, supply chains, local government finances.
• Leaders should watch re-insurance markets closely.

🦠 Superbugs & antimicrobial resistance

• Already causing ~1M deaths per year-and rising.
• An “unsexy” crisis with huge implications for healthcare, productivity, and mortality.
• A massive blind spot for governments, investors, and businesses alike.

🤖 AI fakery & cybersecurity

• In 2026, trust collapses: voices, faces, video, and audio can all be faked.
• The question is no longer “Can we trust?” but “How do we operate when we can’t?”
• Opportunity lies in verification, design, and new trust infrastructures.

🧠 Human connection as a superpower

• As AI intelligence accelerates, human consciousness-empathy, judgement, ethics-becomes scarce and valuable.
• Leaders should ask two questions:

1. Where can AI drive efficiency?
2. Where does being human create competitive advantage?

📉 The AI investment bubble

• Not an AI collapse-but potential turbulence in the financial plumbing behind big tech.
• Circular financing, GPU economics, and concentrated risk could cause a market shock in 2026.

🌐 Multipolar geopolitics

• The post-WWII order is fragmenting faster than many expected.
• New alliances, broken assumptions, and uncomfortable moral trade-offs are emerging.
• Businesses must scenario-plan for worlds that once felt unthinkable.

💡 Reasons for optimism

• Amid disruption, medical breakthroughs are accelerating.
• Cancer vaccines and other major advances could define the upside of 2026.

Thanks to Lee, Philippa, Jude, Darren and Nasreen for their contributions to this episode.

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Connect with Graeme and Dean:

• Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here 
• Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here

www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants  

TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.

Email [email protected] 

In this special episode, hosts Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen broadcast live from the Dubai Futures Forum, the world’s largest gathering of futurists. They share insights on emerging trends, including the value of focus in a distracted world, the evolving meaning of expertise in the age of AI, and the importance of hope and wonder for driving change. Recorded at the iconic Dubai Museum of the Future, the episode encourages listeners to confront overlooked challenges and actively shape a positive, ambitious future.

Our January episode will be another special as we look forward to the year ahead and what we predict 2026 might hold. We’re also inviting listeners to get involved by submitting their 2026 predictions. Submit yours at https://www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/2026predictions.

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Connect with Graeme and Dean:

• Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here 
• Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here

www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants  

TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.

Email [email protected] 

Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen explore this month’s “grey elephants”: the collision of AI and energy demand, the strategic rise of sovereign AI, and an overlooked resource, sand. Then Graeme sits down with Cape Town–based writer and columnist Tom Eaton to unpack what the world can learn from South Africa’s last 30 years: state capture, institutional decay and repair, and why change can arrive suddenly, good or bad.

• Data centres scaling to small-nation power loads; AI is both energy hog and grid optimizer.
• Two futures: grids buckle vs. AI catalyses smarter, cleaner, more resilient systems.
• Boardroom takeaway: align digital and energy strategies; efficiency is competitive advantage.

• Big idea doing the rounds: gigawatt-scale AI training clusters off-planet.
• Regardless of space hype, leaders must solve earthbound energy constraints first.

• Nations racing to control compute + energy + data to reduce dependency on rivals.
• Corporate echo: prove AI value, then move toward sovereign AI footprints (own models, data, infra).

• Specific sands for cement, silicon chips, glass are finite and ecologically costly to extract.
• Expect supply shocks, regulation, and materials innovation opportunities.

• Sector with up to 60% electricity savings via AI optimization: Utilities.
• Companies leading in AI projected to widen revenue gap vs. peers by ~30% (near-term).
• Term for national AI stacks: Sovereign AI.

• No going back: after institutional damage, restoration is slow, contested, and incomplete.
• Beware “liberator euphoria”: the post-crisis leader gets too much leeway; stay critical.
• No adults in the building: don’t assume competent saviours or self-preservation will fix systems.
• Change can be sudden: systems can transform quickly—worse or better—so keep options ready.
• Personal advice: be less online; read history to gain perspective and pattern recognition.

Tom Eaton — South African author, screenwriter, and columnist known for incisive commentary across politics and culture. His recent writing distils practical lessons from South Africa’s experience with corruption, state capture, and democratic resilience for a world facing similar trends.

• Connect with Graeme Codrington on LinkedIn
• Email Dean Van Leeuwen: [email protected]
• Explore the 7 Grey Elephants: www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants
• General enquiries: [email protected]

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Achilles helps the world’s biggest companies build ethical, sustainable, and transparent supply chains, reducing risk while unlocking opportunity.

• Jeff Bezos: Are Data Centres in Space the Next AI Frontier?
• How China used more cement in 3 years than the U.S. did in the entire 20th Century
• World Economic Forum - The $3.3 trillion climate question: Can data centres take the heat?

• Newsletter: Another Day in Paradise with Tom Eaton
• Article “South Africa: the world’s cheat sheet for what comes next”
• Newsletter (fiction/writing): A Note from Tom Eaton
• Book: An Act of Murder by Tom Eaton

Graeme Codrington (Johannesburg) and Dean Van Leeuwen (South of London) explore fresh “grey elephant” signals—from subterranean data centres and living with a >2°C world, to UN reform rumblings—then sit down with Øistein Jensen, Chief Sustainability Officer at Oddfjell, to unpack how a 110-year-old global chemical shipping company is tackling decarbonisation, supply-chain due diligence, and industry-wide collaboration.

• Converging, high-impact forces post-COVID; a once-in-a-century transformation.
• Strategy lens: identify weak signals early; turn risk into opportunity.

• Old mines/bunkers reimagined as “underground data fortresses.”
• Strategic logic: protect critical data; manage cooling, power, and resilience.
• Side bet: cooling technology becomes a shovel-in-the-gold-rush play.

• Move beyond “prevention only” to adaptation + resilience at scale.
• Practical mindset shift (as with COVID): learn to operate in new conditions.

• Calls for African representation; scrutiny of Security Council veto power.
• Diplomatic flashpoints as indicators of a shifting geopolitical order.
• Boardroom takeaway: model tariff shocks, sanctions, supply-route rewiring.

• Today’s reality: Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible.
• Build antifragile strategies before the stampede starts.

• First military “drone” use: Austrian incendiary balloons over Venice (1849).

• Decarbonisation now: efficiency first; multiple fuels/tech—no single silver bullet.
• Regulation & level playing field: strong IMO rules to avoid “go-bankrupt green.”
• Holistic value chain: avoid offloading emissions upstream; measure Scope 3.
• Data & transparency: rising customer expectations across the full chain.
• Partnerships: industry bodies, local forums on human rights, technology co-dev.
• Supplier due diligence: shared platforms (e.g., Achilles) cut duplication and lift standards.
• Embedding sustainability: company-wide incentives tied to climate trajectories.

Øistein Jensen — Chief Sustainability Officer, Oddfjell (global leader in chemical shipping). Oversees sustainability, compliance and strategic safety. Former submarine commander in the Royal Norwegian Navy; prior experience at PwC.

• Connect with Graeme Codrington on LinkedIn
• Email Dean Van Leeuwen: [email protected]
• Explore the 7 Grey Elephants: www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants
• General enquiries: [email protected]

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Achilles helps the world’s biggest companies build ethical, sustainable, and transparent supply chains—reducing risk while unlocking opportunity.

grey elephants, BANI, multipolarity, UN reform, underground data centres, mines to data fortresses, climate adaptation, >2°C world, shipping decarbonisation, Oddfjell, Øistein Jensen, IMO regulation, Scope 3, supplier due diligence, Achilles, human rights, transparency, energy efficiency, antifragility, strategic resilience

Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen return with a timely and urgent discussion about the shifting balance of global power and its implications for business leaders. From startling comments about human longevity by Putin and Xi Jinping to the acceleration of a multipolar world order, the hosts unpack how these geopolitical shifts create uncertainty, and opportunity, in boardrooms everywhere.

This episode also features a compelling interview with Mar Bernal Conde, Head of Sustainable Supply Chain at LightSource BP, who shares her journey from operations to sustainability leadership and explains how resilient, transparent supply chains can become a competitive advantage in turbulent times.

• Putin and Xi joke about living beyond 150.
• Science shows aging may one day be reversible.

• New alliances reshaping global power (Russia, China, India, BRICS+).
• U.S. tariffs accelerate the shift away from Western dominance.

• Tariffs, sanctions, and conflicts (Ukraine, Taiwan, Venezuela, Middle East).
• Businesses must plan for shocks and instability.

• Forces of change that are ignored until too late.
• Today’s reality: Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible.

• From operations to sustainability leadership.
• Why transparency, trust, and ESG due diligence matter.
• Building resilient supply chains in uncertain times.

Mar Bernal Conde – Head of Sustainable Supply Chain at LightSource BP. With over 25 years of international experience in energy and manufacturing, Mara has led strategic transformations rooted in sustainability. She also teaches sustainability leadership at Cambridge and serves on multiple industry boards.

Putin Confirms Rise Of New World Order

👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKhTbMrqUdM

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Connect with Graeme and Dean:

• Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here 
• Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here

www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants  

TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.

Email [email protected]

Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen are joined by Tony, a former professional rugby player who has successfully reinvented himself three times throughout his career. In this inspiring conversation, Tony shares his journey of transformation beyond professional sports and introduces the powerful concept of "fierce care" as a strategic imperative in business.

In a world where transformation is happening at an unprecedented pace - the fastest since 100 years ago - Tony's story offers valuable insights for anyone navigating career transitions and organizational leadership. His philosophy on how treating people, suppliers, and stakeholders with genuine care becomes a competitive advantage provides actionable wisdom for today's business leaders.

Career Reinvention & Transformation

• Tony's journey of reinventing himself three times beyond professional rugby
• Navigating the transition from professional sports to business leadership
• The shelf life of careers and making strategic life decisions
• Self-awareness as a foundation for successful transformation

Fierce Care as Business Strategy

• The concept of "fierce care" as a strategic imperative in business
• How genuine care for people, suppliers, and stakeholders drives performance
• The difference between exceptional and average organizational performance
• Micro-behaviors that create competitive advantages

Leadership in Times of Change

• Operating in an era of enormous sharp transformation
• Why everyone needs to learn how to reinvent themselves
• The importance of treating people well during periods of change
• Building high-performing organizations through authentic leadership

Tony - Former professional rugby player who has successfully navigated multiple career reinventions, now focused on business leadership and the application of "fierce care" principles in organizational settings.

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Connect with Graeme and Dean:

• Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here 
• Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here

www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants  

TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.

Email [email protected]

Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen open this episode with a tribute to Paul Stanley, the former CEO of Achilles, whose legacy transformed the supply chain and ESG sectors. His dedication to transparency inspired this episode's deep dive into the fast moving world of artificial intelligence, where Ginni Rometty's foresight of AI's pervasive influence in decision-making is coming to life.

Imagine AI that doesn't just follow orders but autonomously improves customer experiences and tackles major challenges.

Discover the phenomenon of agentic AI - an autonomous force poised to redefine business operations, yet shrouded in both promise and skepticism. A shift from task-based automation to mission-driven autonomy, by leveraging agentic AI, companies can not only boost efficiency but also reimagine their strategies, breaking free from conventional constraints.

Do you think businesses should stay neutral in the face of global changes?

Using frameworks like BANI, we highlight the necessity for enterprises to anticipate and capitalise on disruptions. In a world where 70% of the population lives under right-leaning governments, global businesses are navigating a complex political landscape where neutrality may no longer be an option. 

Resources -

https://www.businessinsider.com/ginni-rometty-on-ibm-watson-and-ai-2015-5

https://resources.tomorrowtoday.consulting/collections/686bcb8dfec9dd0bd964f680?utm_source=Paperflite%20Link

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Connect with Graeme and Dean:

• Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here 
• Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here

www.tomorrowtodayglobal.com/greyelephants  

TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.

Email [email protected] 

This month, we are joined by Pia Heidenmark Cook, one of the most prominent leaders in corporate sustainability, to discuss the urgent actions businesses must take to address climate change and integrate sustainability into their core strategies.

A Senior Advisor to Teneo, Achilles, Eurazeo and Non Executive Director at organisations including Bupa, Pia advises how to develop and operationalise sustainability strategies and the implications for reputation strategies.

As former Chief Sustainability Officer for IKEA, she led the development and implementation of the IKEA People and Planet Positive strategy. In this episode, Pia explains the importance of recognising shifts in consumer behaviour, the challenges of navigating a warming world, and the role of social media in fostering collaboration.

Pia also emphasises the need for organisations to embed sustainability into their culture and inspire the next generation of leaders to act boldly for a sustainable future.

As ever, hosts Graeme Codrington and Dean Van Leeuwen from TomorrowToday Consulting bring analysis of grey elephant activity they have seen over the past month. In this episode, the focus is on immigration. Hear about the demographic shifts driving immigration, the political implications, and the potential for businesses to view immigration as a strategic opportunity. With Graeme and Dean highlighting the need for a mindset shift to recognise the value of diversity and the importance of proactive immigration policies in addressing workforce shortages and economic challenges.

Access further insights into how immigration is reshaping the world, receive strategic alerts about the 7 grey elephants and a host of other valuable resources by signing up here.

Elephants in the Boardroom is powered by Achilles.

Connect with Graeme and Dean:

• Connect with Graeme on LinkedIn here 
• Email Dean at [email protected]

If you're interested in learning more about the 7 Grey Elephants and how they're transforming the world you can download TomorrowToday's white paper here.  

TomorrowToday Consulting empowers forward-thinking organisations to not just anticipate the future, but to shape it. Staying ahead of the curve is critical, and we provide the visionary thinking and strategic execution you need to thrive.

Email [email protected]