Welcome to Energy Markets Daily.
Wednesday, December 31, 2025 — Year in Review.
Happy New Year's Eve. Let's close out 2025.
**THE 2025 SCORECARD — CRUDE OIL**
WTI finishing the year near $57, down approximately 20% from January highs. Brent near $61.
This was crude oil's worst year since 2020.
Our bearish thesis played out exactly as we called it. We targeted WTI $56, Brent $60 — we hit both. WTI touched $55.28 in December. Brent broke below $60 to $59.73.
**WHAT DROVE 2025**
OPEC+ lost control of the narrative. Non-OPEC supply growth exceeded expectations — US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana all added barrels.
China demand disappointed. Global inventories built. OPEC revised Q3 from deficit to a 500,000 bpd surplus.
The oversupply narrative dominated the second half.
**THE 2025 SCORECARD — NATURAL GAS**
Finishing near $3.91. Up over 50% from 2025 lows — the opposite of crude.
LNG exports reached record levels. Winter weather provided demand support. EIA projects winter average at $4.30.
The decoupling thesis we called all year was fully validated.
**2026 OUTLOOK**
Crude bearish — EIA sees WTI averaging $50, Brent $55. Global inventories expected to build further. Non-OPEC supply growth over 1 million bpd. OPEC+ trapped.
Natural gas bullish — EIA projects $4.01 for 2026. Goldman targeting $4.50 summer. 2026-2028 is the largest LNG expansion in history. Data center demand from AI structural tailwind.
**MARKET HOURS**
CME Globex closes today at 5pm CT. Reopens January 1 at 6pm CT. Cash markets closed Thursday.
**THE BOTTOM LINE**
2025 validated our thesis completely. Trade the data. Not the headlines.
Thank you for listening this year.
**FINAL WORD**
If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network.
Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital.
This is Energy Markets Daily. Happy New Year. See you in 2026.
Thursday: Markets closed. Friday: Weekly Recap.