Energy Off Script

Energy Off Script returns with the Western Australian Wholesale Electricity Market, the WEM, the purpose built market that supplies the South West Interconnected System.

Host Steve Lewis of Brightsource Consulting sits down with Shane Cremin, an electrical engineer and 20 year veteran of the WA electricity sector, with experience across economic regulation, asset development, financing, and operations and commercial strategy. Together they trace the WEM from the days of the State Energy Commission and coal, diesel and gas, through the privatisation wave to the market launched in 2006.

Shane also shares candid views on why the WEM has performed so well, why free wind and sun do not automatically mean cheaper bills, the risk of a fixed 2030 coal exit, and where nuclear and data centres fit in.

Key Takeaways

• The WEM launched in 2006, nearly 10 years after the east coast market, as a bespoke design for an isolated grid: an energy market plus a capacity market.

• Most energy is traded under bilateral contracts. Real time trading makes up only around 10% of the energy consumed, which keeps price volatility down on a small grid.

• The capacity mechanism is built around the marginal generator, usually an open cycle diesel unit needed about once every 10 years in a very hot summer. A coal generator gets only 20 to 30% of its costs from capacity credits.

• Shane gives the WEM a tick on reliability, emissions relative to the NEM, economic outcomes and demand forecasting. In real terms, delivered electricity costs were stable or falling from 2006 until the last couple of years.

• "The rate of change is so fast now that we are losing control of managing all of those things that we gave ticks to before." Wind, rooftop solar, batteries and coal closures have driven a sharp rise in the cost of supply.

• Free wind and sun do not mean cheaper bills. Real time energy is a small part of the tariff, while networks, capacity, inertia and system strength add up.

• Renewable build costs rose sharply after COVID, the war in Ukraine and higher interest rates, so the Capacity Investment Scheme has not had the impact intended.

• Shane argues the objective is decarbonisation, not simply getting out of coal, and a fixed 2030 date risks locking in wind at its highest cost in 20 years. Nuclear does not suit a small isolated grid today, but should not be discarded in the long term.

Timecodes:

[00:00] Episode highlights

[00:41] Welcome and meet Shane Cremin

[04:26] WA's isolated grid before the WEM

[07:20] From SECWA to the 2006 market

[10:08] Why households still buy from Synergy

[14:16] Energy only versus capacity market

[16:46] Capacity credits and the marginal generator

[20:54] The WEM report card

[25:03] Government ownership and central control

[30:20] Renewable targets and the Capacity Investment Scheme

[34:55] Why free wind and sun do not mean cheaper bills

[41:27] Existing assets versus rebuilding

[43:54] The 2030 coal exit

[47:15] Is there a role for nuclear?

[48:17] Data centres, solar and closing thoughts

Connect with Steve🌐

LinkedIn 🔗 https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-lewis-b8...

Website 🔗 https://brightsourceconsulting.com.au/

Email 🔗 [email protected]

Disclaimer:

The views expressed are those of the host and guest and do not necessarily reflect those of any current or former employer. This episode is general information only and is not financial, investment, legal or professional advice. Please seek independent advice.

#EnergyOffScript #WEM #WAEnergy #ElectricityMarket #CapacityMarket #EnergyTransition #Renewables #NetZero #WesternAustralia #Brightsource

Energy Off Script launches with the story of the North West Shelf, the mega project that turned a 100 pound exploration permit into the foundation of Australia's LNG industry.

Host Steve Lewis of Brightsource Consulting sits down with former Shell executive Michael Schoch, who worked on the project across two decades and went on to lead Shell's equity position in it. Together they trace the journey from Woodside's bold move in 1963 to domestic gas in 1984, first LNG to Japan in 1989, and the hard fought deals with Japan and China that followed.

Michael also shares candid views on what the industry got wrong, why he backs the PRRT, where the gas reservation debate is heading, and what tolling means for the future of the North West Shelf.

Key Takeaways

• Woodside paid 100 pounds for its exploration rights in 1963, then farmed down 30% to Shell a year later for 12,500 Australian pounds.

• The resource was always too big for WA alone. The local market uses about 350 PJ a year, against roughly 70,000 PJ produced and still to be produced in the Carnarvon Basin.

• Risk was shared. The WA Government under Sir Charles Court backed the pipeline and the take or pay commitment, and eight Japanese utilities underwrote the first 20 year LNG contract.

• Reliability built the reputation. Michael recalls more than 3,500 cargoes delivered before one was missed.

• The first China deal was won at the bottom of the market with no price review, which strained relationships with Japanese buyers for years.

• Four LNG projects within 100 kilometres is, in Michael's words, a lost opportunity. Expanding existing trains would have delivered more for shareholders and government.

• On tax: "If anybody's upset with the PRRT, change the PRRT." Australian projects cost far more to build than those in Qatar or the US Gulf Coast, so payback takes a long time.

• Tolling other producers' gas gives the North West Shelf a new life well beyond its own reserves.

Timecodes:

00:00 Episode highlights

00:41 Welcome and meet Michael Schoch

02:44 WA gas before the North West Shelf

03:27 Woodside's 100 pound bet

04:28 Sir Charles Court and the take or pay risk

05:37 How big is the resource?

07:50 Japan and the early LNG trade

11:14 The Japanese consortium splits

14:16 China's first LNG deal and the fallout

20:04 The end of joint marketing

21:09 Four LNG projects within 100km

27:17 The nation builder: skills and energy security

32:21 Tolling and the future of the North West Shelf

35:25 Gas reservation policy and the PRRT

44:07 Carbon, competitiveness and closing thoughts

Connect with Steve🌐

LinkedIn 🔗 https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-lewis-b836b658/

Website 🔗 https://brightsourceconsulting.com.au/

Email 🔗 [email protected]

Disclaimer

The views expressed are those of the host and guest and do not necessarily reflect those of any current or former employer. This episode is general information only and is not financial, investment, legal or professional advice. Please seek independent advice.

#EnergyOffScript #NorthWestShelf #LNG #WAEnergy #GasMarket #EnergyPolicy #PRRT #OilAndGas #WesternAustralia #Brightsource

Welcome to Energy Off Script, a new podcast hosted by Steve Lewis about the energy industry in Western Australia.

Across a series of conversations, Steve sits down with guests who have deep and practical experience from every sector of the industry. Together they cover the physical assets used to generate, transport and store energy, the economics of energy development, marketing and supply, and the government policy shaping it all as WA heads towards net zero by 2050.

Each episode starts with a bit of history and how the sector works, then turns to the challenges ahead, including the energy transition. The Q and A format keeps key concepts clear and concise, so you don't need an industry background to follow along.

So much of the energy information online is selectively chosen and presented. Energy Off Script shares different perspectives grounded in actual industry experience, giving you a practical understanding of what it takes to keep energy flowing.

Follow or subscribe so you don't miss the first episode.

Connect with us

Website: https://brightsourceconsulting.com.au/contact

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-lewis-b836b658

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect those of any organisation they are associated with. This content is for general information only and is not financial, investment, legal or professional advice.

#EnergyOffScript #WesternAustralia #EnergyIndustry #EnergyTransition #NetZero #WAEnergy #EnergyPolicy #RenewableEnergy #Podcast #PerthPodcast