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Eskom’s newly released Interim Grid Capacity Allocation Rules (IGCAR), formulated in response to surging demand for grid access in a context of acute grid scarcity, have received a cool reception from industry, with some of the conditions included in the new framework being viewed as “onerous”.

GM for operations enablement Velaphi Ntuli says the IGCAR, which have been developed and canvassed over the past six months, have been designed to ensure that shovel-ready generation projects are given priority.

The rules, thus, replace the ‘first come, first served’ framework that has hitherto prevailed with a ‘first ready, first served’ approach.

He reports that the rules are also designed to level the playing field between projects participating in public procurement processes and those being pursued in line with a recent reform allowing private distributed generation projects, including those that wheel electricity through the grid, to proceed without a licence.

The absence of a grid queuing system came to the fore during the sixth bid window of the country’s public renewables procurement programme when none of the 23 onshore wind projects that bid for a 3 200 MW allocation were selected as preferred bids, owing to claims of grid over-subscription in the Western, Eastern and Northern Cape provinces.

Ntuli reports that Eskom is working with the Independent Power Producers Office to finalise the status of projects that have been procured under various public programmes and are, thus, continuing to take up a grid allocation, but which have failed to reach financial close.

Engineering manager Seetsele Seetswana says the new rules retain the principle of non-discriminatory and open access, but reports that Eskom has reserved the right to set aside allocations for future public procurement programmes to avoid a repeat of the failure of bid window six.

To facilitate a shift to the ‘first ready, first served’ principle, Eskom outlined the criteria it would apply to assess the ‘state of readiness’ of a project, including:

the securing of all environmental and water-use authorisations;

power purchase agreement heads of terms signed between the independent power producer (IPP) and the end-user;

confirmation of the appointment of Eskom-approved design consultants for self-build connections;

measured data for solar for a period of a year and for two years for wind; and

the payment of a Grid Capacity Allocation Guarantee issued by an Eskom-approved financial institution.

Only once these conditions have been met will Eskom issue a budget quote (BQ) for grid connection, while still reserving the right to revoke such a quote should there be a failure on the part of the IPP to meet any of the milestones outlined in the BQ.

Following a pause of seven months, Eskom will also begin processing BQs again under the new rules, starting with the backlog of applications that has accumulated.

Eskom’s Nonhlanhla Miya reports that the processing of the 40 outstanding applications in the Eastern, Northern and Western Cape provinces would be processed as from the end of June and that the outcome of that process will be communicated by the end of July.

The projects have a combined capacity of some 5 GW and those that are approved should secure BQs soon after having paid their guarantees, while those that fail to meet the IGCAR criteria will receive BQ refunds.

South African Independent Power Producers Association (SAIPPA) chairperson Brian Day has described the new rules as “dysfunctional”, noting that they require grid connection to be done right at the end, and in terms of resource definition are more onerous than what is expected from a bank that might be funding up to 80% of an IPP project.

“It's not rational.

“The amount of work on the side of the IPP or developer is now enormous, long before grid connection is known to be possible.

“The amount of money they've got to spend on technical preparations and on lawyers is enormous,” Day asserts.

He notes that al...

The demands of digitalisation, electrification, autonomous vehicles, sustainability and changing consumer preferences have given rise to a host of new occupations within the automotive sector, Isuzu Motors South Africa president and automotive executive oversight committee skills development workstream chairperson Billy Tom has said.

“The automotive industry must take deliberate steps to cultivate a culture that values and encourages the pursuit of technical expertise. By doing so, we can secure a pool of skilled individuals who will drive our industry forward even in the face of challenges,” he said on June 26.

He was one of many industry leaders who spoke at a thought leadership roundtable discussion event hosted by naamsa | The Automotive Business Council, in partnership with financial institution Old Mutual, in Johannesburg.

The event was the second instalment in a four-part series of thought leadership roundtable discussions focussed on the industry’s four key strategic areas for the 2023 calendar year.

Discussions revolved around the theme of ‘transformation beyond compliance’ and how all key stakeholders within the automotive sector of South Africa needed to push the transformation agenda, which had become a licence to trade for the automotive industry in the country.

In the realm of digitalisation, Tom revealed that there was increased demand for software engineers, data analysts and cybersecurity professionals, who were responsible for developing and maintaining the complex systems that enabled autonomous driving. Occupations such as autonomous vehicle engineers, simulation specialists and safety analysts have also emerged as key in the rapidly evolving field.

“These individuals play a crucial role in developing and maintaining advanced digital technologies that power connected vehicles, smart factories and data-driven decision-making processes,” he explained.

Additionally, expertise in virtual and augmented reality, machine learning and artificial intelligence were becoming increasingly valuable for automotive companies, he said.

The shift towards electrification has also given rise to specialised occupations, in electric powertrain systems, betting technology and charging infrastructure. Workers with these skills are essential for the design, development and maintenance of electric vehicles (EVs) in the associated components.

Moreover, occupations such as EV technicians and battery engineers have emerged to meet the growing demand for expertise in this field.

Tom noted that sustainability had also become a more pressing concern for the automotive industry, leading to increased demand for workers with expertise in sustainable manufacturing practices, environmental engineering and renewable energy.

“These individuals contribute to the development and implementation of eco-friendly processes and technologies that reduce the industry's carbon footprint. Additionally, skills in green logistics and supply chain management are increasingly valued as companies strive for sustainability throughout the entire value chain,” he said.

In terms of changing consumer preferences, Tom said skills in user experience design, digital marketing and data analytics were increasingly essential for providing a personalised and connected experience for consumers.

“As the demand for connected vehicles, technologies and smart mobility solutions grows, professionals in these areas play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the automotive industry,” he said.

He added that the successful implementation of skills development initiatives in the automotive industry would require a comprehensive and strategic approach.

“Through assessment analysis, we can identify industry demands, emerging technologies and global trends that shape the future of the work. By collaborating with relevant stakeholders, including government bodies, industry associations and educational institutions, we can ensure that our efforts align with market needs and drive in...

The construction mafia, or so-called ‘business forums’, first reared its head in KwaZulu-Natal in 2014 and 2015, invading construction sites to demand a share of projects, or that companies employ specific people or subcontractors.

By 2018 and 2019 this practice also emerged in other provinces, with these forums often touting heavy-calibre weapons as they made their demands.

A similar model of extortion has since spread to other industries, most notably mining.

Much of the violence has subsided in KwaZulu-Natal, says Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane, a researcher at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime.

However, this is not a sign that the illegal activities have stopped, she notes, but rather that extortion has become normalised, and yet another cost of doing business in South Africa.

Ayabonga Cawe, chief commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa, says extortion is compromising government’s infrastructure rollout, which affects the entire economy.

He explains that conflicts such as these often arise when there are different interpretations of laws and regulations.

“The problem lies in how preferential procurement has unfolded, and this opens up the way for opportunistic criminals,” he says.

Irish-Qhobosheane agrees.

“We do need to recognise that economic exclusion and a lack of economic transformation creates fertile ground for extortion in construction.

“However, it is important to distinguish between genuine community concerns and criminals involved in extortion for their own gain.”

Business forums typically demand 30% of the contract value be allocated to forum members, or directly to the forum itself.

This figure appears to be derived from National Treasury’s Preferential Procurement Policy Framework Act.

This Act states that 30% of public procurement contracts should be contracted to designated groups, as provided for in the Preferential Procurement Regulations, with the forums’ demands then painted with the veneer of transformation.

National Treasury has strongly condemned this practice as illegal, and as a blow to government’s attempts to advance the interests of historically disadvantaged individuals and small businesses.

Irish-Qhobosheane and Cawe spoke at Human Sciences Research Council events.

Where to Now?

It can hardly be emphasised enough that business has to put in place comprehensive directives for dealing with extortion attempts, says Corobrik director Musa Shangase.

“The first principle should be to afford the business forum the opportunity for dialogue; to present their demands.

“I advise sharing with them the terms of the contract and what the obligations are for advancing transformation goals,” notes Shangase.

“They need to be informed whether the project is a public or private one, and what the implications are in each case.”

Shangase also advises companies to request a database of the business forum’s constituents, and to employ a community liaison officer who can act as a mediator between the community and the company.

The duties of the community liaison officer include negotiating, and developing and fostering relationships.

In public sector projects, the community liaison officer acts as the link between the main contractor and the business forum.

In the case of private sector projects, if a business forum insists on participation, the matter should be reported to the police, says Shangase.

Business Against Crime’s Guidelines

Business Against Crime South Africa (Bacsa) has, as part of the work of the National Priority Committee on Extortion and Violence at Economic Sites, authored a set of guidelines to help companies deal with extortion.

Bacsa national project manager Roelof Viljoen says it is important for companies and their employees to understand what extortion is, so that they can identify and report it as and when required.

Also, successful prosecution is vital to reducing extortion.

Extortion as a crime requires two elements: the demand...

Eskom is expecting demand for the rest of South Africa’s winter months to remain below levels initially assumed when the utility finalised its base case for the high-demand season (see graphic above), while it is also beginning to report improved generation performance at some of its coal stations.

When Eskom unveiled its winter outlook on May 18, it warned that it might be forced to resort to Stage 8 loadshedding (representing 16 hours of cuts in a 32-hour cycle) should it fail to cap coal plant breakdowns to below 15 000 MW and should demand spike on the back of colder temperatures, particularly in Gauteng.

Eskom’s Eric Shunmagum reports that there have been favourable developments on both fronts, with demand having moderated from the 33 000 MW peak experienced in late May and supply having also improved from both Eskom and renewables plants.

The May peak preceded the implementation of the winter tariff, implemented on large energy intensive businesses as from June 1.

Shunmagum says Eskom has not yet calculated the full effect of the winter tariff but estimates that demand is likely to have dropped by between 850 MW and 1 000 MW as a result of large industrial plants having shut down in line with the introduction of the tariff. The utility is also pursuing a demand-side management campaign through which it hopes to shave a further 1 000 MW from consumption over the coming few months.

He stresses, however, that the main reason for the current deviation from the winter demand base case is attributable to weather conditions which have also supported the availability of some renewables generators. The wind fleet in particular, has performed strongly during recent cold fronts, supplying up to 2 000 MW during evening peaks on certain days.

While Gauteng could still face a cold snap, which could drive up demand significantly, the utility is nevertheless expecting peak demand to remain below the base case peak forecast outlined in May for the rest of the winter period to September. The utility’s latest peak demand forecast does not show demand rising above 32 000 MW again this winter.

Shunmagum stresses, however, that there have also been improvements on the supply side, with unit breakdowns, which were trending at between 18 500 MW and 19 000 MW in May, currently trending between 14 500 MW and 16 000 MW.

“So, there's at least a 3 000 MW improvement on breakdowns,” he states.

Ahead of winter, the generation division outlined a goal of sustaining breakdowns to below 15 000 MW and of capping planned outages to below 3 000 MW to limit loadshedding, as well as the use of diesel at the open cycle gas turbines.

“There has definitely been an improvement in generation performance,” he says, reporting particularly pleasing turnarounds at Tutuka, Duvha, Kendal and Majuba.

On the supply-side, Eskom has also welcomed the decision by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment to grant Kusile a postponement in meeting sulphur dioxide minimum emission standards.

The postponement means that Eskom will be able to operate temporary stacks at the three units rendered inoperable after the Unit 1 flue duct collapsed on October 23, owing to a build-up of slurry. The collapse also compromised the unit 2 and 3 flue ducts, which share a chimney with the Unit 1 flue.

Under the updated Atmospheric Emission Licence, Kusile will be able to bypass the flue gas desulphurisation plant until March 31, 2025 and resume output using temporary stacks that will be returned to service in November (Unit 3) and December (Unit 1 and Unit 2).

The units will not be introduced at full load of about 720 MW, however, and will produce at about 520 MW apiece while employing the temporary stacks.

The utility is planning to complete repairs to the ducts in the permanent stack by December 2024.

Regulator-licensed South African electricity trader Enpower Trading is promoting wheeling and trading over municipal networks as a way of combatting the trend of “off-grid flight”, which poses a threat to electricity income that can contribute more than half of a municipality’s overall revenues.

There is a growing demand from independent power producers (IPPs) and traders to transport, or wheel, electricity across both Eskom and municipal networks and such demand is expected to grow in light of reforms that could result in IPPs and traders seeking multiple customers for their surplus generation.

Municipalities are also receiving an increasing number of wheeling applications from local business, but the current absence of a national wheeling framework, the development of which is being prioritised by the National Energy Crisis Committee, means there are currently no clear guidelines, and many municipalities also lack the skills to conclude such agreements with either IPPs or traders.

Enpower Trading CEO James Beatty says municipalities are justifiably concerned about entering into lopsided agreements that could further deepen their financial challenges and accelerate utility death spirals.

At the same time, however, there is a growing risk of losing rate-paying customers as a result of grid defection, which Enpower describes as off-grid flight.

“If the energy is not flowing through the grid, the municipality can’t generate income from it,” Beatty highlights, adding that such defection is also resulting in less income to support indigent communities.

It is also negatively affecting affordability for those who remain grid-connected, as there are fewer customers to share the grid costs.

“In most instances, customers are leaving the grid because the energy has become too expensive and unreliable. If a lower-cost and cleaner alternative can be provided, businesses and households will stay connected.”

Enpower Trading, which is one of only a handful of electricity traders currently licensed by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, believes a revenue-neutral energy trading model can play a role in curbing such defection and is currently engaging with some 60 municipalities on the concept.

The model has been designed, Beatty explains, to ensure that a municipality retains both its customers and its electricity revenue surplus by facilitating the purchase of cheaper and cleaner electricity from IPPs.

The municipality enters into a Use of System Agreement with Enpower, which includes a wheeling tariff that is priced to cover the municipalities network costs and sustain any surplus revenues generated from the asset.

Enpower Trading, rather than the municipality, contracts with the IPPs, eliminating the need for a procurement process, and is also responsible for collecting payment for wheeled energy from customers.

The company’s first live and operational transaction was concluded with the George municipality, in the Western Cape, and involves trading power from SolarAfrica Energy’s 1.8 MW George-embedded solar plant to four low voltage-connected customers inside the George distribution grid.

Enpower Trading has entered into a power purchase agreement (PPA) for 1 MW of the solar energy generated on site in George and has signed supply agreements with the four customers priced at a discount to their existing municipal tariff. The George municipality is compensated for wheeling the electricity through an agreed wheeling tariff. The company has also entered into a PPA for a further 100 MW which is expected to become operational toward the end of 2024.

A use of system agreement has also since been concluded with the Overstrand municipality and Enpower Trading is a participant in the City of Cape Town’s wheeling and trading pilot project, which is set to commence operations in July.

Beatty believes South Africa’s preoccupation with generation has resulted not only in an underinvestment in distribution networks by municipalities, but ...

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer talks about the grid constraints, particularly in the Eastern, Western and Northern Cape; Eskom's approach to grid access to date and how it proposes to change that; and what else will be needed to deal with the issue of grid constraints.

Highly qualified automotive technicians are becoming increasingly scarce in South Africa, with their training now encompassing not only internal combustion engines, but also hybrid technology and battery electric vehicles.

With most modern cars having upwards of 30 000 parts, and being more of a computer-on-wheels than a people mover, training takes a very long time, with technicians continuing their training as new models and technologies are introduced, says Knysna Toyota dealer Tom Esterhuizen.

“Finding young people to become automotive technicians is not easy, primarily due to the stigma associated with technical trades in South Africa.

“Unlike in developed countries such as Germany and Switzerland, where artisans are highly regarded and respected, there is a negative perception surrounding such occupations in South Africa,” he adds.

Local dealerships and repair shops also typically require candidates to have a matriculation certificate with a pass mark of at least 50% in mathematics and science, or in at least one of these subjects.

Alternatively, candidates may be considered once they have completed a bridging programme.

National Automobile Dealers’ Association (NADA) director Gary McCraw says today's automotive technicians are highly specialised and far removed from the mechanic of the old days.

They are also highly sought-after, with their training and retention costs a significant investment for dealerships.

This demand also extends to markets abroad, as local training and qualifications both meet international standards.

A successful franchise dealer with more than 50 years’ experience in the local motor industry, who started as an apprentice technician himself in 1969, McCraw says today's master or diagnostic technician “can be compared to a medical specialist” in terms of the duration and intensity of studying, as well as required on-the-job technical training.

“.Top-line automotive technicians must work on cars that are 20 to 30 years old, with relatively basic technology, and then transition to the latest models with highly advanced technology, thousands of parts all perfectly engineered to work in unison, most of which are electronic,” says McCraw.

He says the standard apprenticeship in the motor industry has changed significantly.

In addition to working under an artisan, apprentices now spend as much as two weeks a month at college for theoretical studies.

Once the apprentice qualifies as an artisan, the real pressure begins in terms of skills improvement and theoretical learning, much of this specific to certain vehicle models and systems.

Depending on the specific franchise, the first five years after qualifying as an artisan can be demanding as the technician progresses towards becoming a master or diagnostic technician.

Technicians are also required to undergo yearly refresher courses, while also receiving training prior to the introduction of a new model.

“The major challenge faced by dealerships is how to attract matriculants with maths and science to pursue careers as automotive technicians, and to remove the stigma attached to the technical trades, which have become more focused on lab-coats and laptops than overalls and ‘lappies’,” says McCraw.

The Namibian government has confirmed that it will take up a 24% equity stake in a $10-billion green hydrogen project being developed in the Tsau //Khaeb National Park, near Lüderitz.

Finance Minister Iipumbu Shiimi said the decision to take up the position in the project, the investment value of which is almost equivalent to the country’s gross domestic product, followed on from the finalisation of agreements for the establishment of SDG Namibia One.

SDG Namibia One is a blended financing infrastructure fund that will raise money from local and international investors to develop Namibian green hydrogen projects.

The fund’s establishment will also see Namibia’s Environment Investment Fund partnering with two Dutch organisations – Climate Fund Managers and Invest International – in the creation of NH2 Fund Managers as the fund manager of SDG Namibia One.

An initial €40-million is being provided as grant funding by Invest International, while European Investment Bank concluded a letter of intent with Namibia at COP27 for the raising of €500-million, a portion of which will be designated for investment through SDG Namibia One.

Green hydrogen also featured strongly during the joint visit to Namibia on June 19 by Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

Rutte and Frederiksen subsequently travelled to South Africa, where President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that a $1-billion SA-H2 Fund, which is being seeded by an initial $250-million from Invest International of the Netherlands, was being established to mobilise green hydrogen investments.

Meanwhile, Hyphen Hydrogen Energy, which is developing the Namibian projects, also announced that a memorandum of understanding had been signed with Namibia, NamPort, NamPower, the Port of Rotterdam, Gasunie and Invest International committing the partners to work together on designing the infrastructure required to deliver on Namibia’s green hydrogen production ambitions.

The MoU builds on the existing relationship between NamPort, Port of Rotterdam and Hyphen in the development of the new master plan for the Port of Lüderitz, while NamPower and Hyphen are also investigating the possibility of supplying excess electricity generated by the project to NamPower.

Namibia also announced the establishment of an Implementation Authority Office to facilitate and accelerate the development and implementation of Namibia’s synthetic fuels industry with funding for the office being provided by grants from Invest International and the European Union.

These developments follow the signing in late May of a feasibility and implementation agreement (FIA) between Namibia and Hyphen for the project, which aims to produce two-million tonnes of green ammonia yearly by 2029.

Hyphen, which is a Namibian-registered joint venture between Nicholas Holdings Limited and Enertrag, was awarded preferred-bidder status in November 2021 and the FIA comprises five sequential phases, including a two-year feasibility period.

State-owned electricity utility Eskom is preparing to issue updated grid queuing rules that will outline how it plans to manage scarce grid connection capacity in a way that avoids “hogging” of capacity and ensures that only “shovel-ready” project are allocated capacity.

The new approach is contained in what Eskom terms its Interim Grid Capacity Allocation Rules (IGCAR) document, which outlines a shift from the ‘first come, first served’ framework that has hitherto been implemented to one based on ‘first ready, first served’.

The absence of a queuing system came to the fore during the sixth bid window of the country’s public renewables procurement programme when none of the 23 onshore wind projects that bid for a 3 200 MW allocation were selected as preferred bids, owing to claims of grid over-subscription in the Western, Eastern and Northern Cape provinces.

Eskom tells Engineering News that the rules under the IGCAR are “aimed at ensuring that as many generators are connected to the grid as soon as possible and also ensuring that there is no capacity hogging”.

The IGCAR has been developed following consultation with the industry and, while they do not require any approval by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, given that Section 21 of the Electricity Regulation Act grants Eskom power over the rules, the utility will nevertheless seek to have the rules adopted and approved by the regulator.

In addition, Eskom intends hosting a briefing session with industry in the coming two weeks to clarify how it intends managing the IGCAR.

Eskom has also communicated with the industry that it will resume with processing budget quotes (BQs) for grid access in the Cape region once the IGCAR process has been finalised.

Having also been criticised previously for the length of time it was taking its Grid Access Unit to issue BQs, Eskom reports that it is in the process of ensuring that timeframes can be reduced.

“On average in the last 12 months, it has taken eight months to issue a BQ due to issues both internal to Eskom and in the industry,” Eskom tells Engineering News.

The utility confirms that its Grid Access Unit currently has 28 staff members, but stresses that the bulk of the technical work is done by the various technical experts in the distribution and transmission divisions.

“The goal is to issue BQs within six months and the introduction of the IGCAR and other initiatives will result in improved delivery times,” Eskom states.

“There are currently 45 BQs that have been issued between 1 April 2021 to 30 November 2022 which have been delayed for various reasons with a total capacity of 4 717 MW.”

The importance of having queuing rules that are supportive of shovel-ready projects has been amplified by the result of a recent survey showing that there is a 66 GW pipeline of wind and solar projects at various stages of development, including about 18 GW that could be considered ready to proceed.

There have also been intensifying calls for a clarification of the rules in light of the fact that the market is no longer dominated by a single public procurement programme, following the removal of the licensing threshold for embedded generation projects.

Operation Vulindlela reports that this reform, together with a streamlining of project approvals means that projects are theoretically able to add capacity to the grid more quickly and has resulted in an embedded generation project pipeline of 108 projects with a combined capacity of just over 10 GW.

During a recent presentation to the Presidential Climate Commission, the Presidency’s Rudi Dicks, who oversees Operation Vulindlela, confirmed that Eskom was revising its grid capacity allocation principles with the aim of allocating available capacity to projects that are ready to proceed.

South Africa has started to mine its tax records in a bid to produce highly localised spatial economic data that will offer city and municipal policy makers far greater visibility of the geographic distribution of both industries and jobs within their boundaries, as well as key developmental disparities.

The information is being analysed under the aegis of the newly launched Spatial Economic Activity Data – South Africa programme, which is spearheaded by the National Treasury, the Human Sciences Research Council and the Cities Support Programme, but is also supported by several other departments and institutions, as well as the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana says that by scrutinising anonymised tax data – which is being provided by the South African Revenue Service but housed in a National Treasury secure data centre – it is now possible to measure the economic outcome of public sector investment in and within municipalities.

Although tax data is limited in scope to the formal sector only, HSRC senior research specialist Dr Justin Visagie says the data still covers about 80% of the country’s jobs and more than 90% of gross domestic product.

The data source, he adds, offers an impressive array of economic indicators for jobs and firms, which can also be broken down by industry or sector, wage levels, gender, age, export status and firm size.

Importantly, too, the data is current, covering the period from the 2013/14 tax year to 2021/22 and can be updated with each new tax year.

The data source extends to all 213 municipalities and includes suburb-level information for the six metropolitan councils.

The first report to emerge from the mining of the tax data is titled the ‘Cities Economic Outlook 2023’ and shows that South Africa’s six metros dominate the national economy, with almost two-thirds of all formal jobs in the country located within their boundaries.

“The concentration of employment opportunities in cities explains why their population has been growing more strongly than the rest of the country,” the authors state, adding that the ratio of jobs to population is also much healthier than elsewhere.

Nevertheless, it also shows that the recent trajectory of employment growth in South African cities has been weak.

“The very poor performance of manufacturing and construction industries is also a major concern for the millions of less-skilled workers that live in cities.”

The review of spatial tax data for metropolitan economies also highlights the unique role and profile of each city within a broader urban, regional and national system.

It confirms, for instance, that Johannesburg is a financial centre, that manufacturing and logistics dominate in Ekurhuleni and eThekwini, that Tshwane’s economy has a strong bias towards national government and professional services, while Cape Town is a diversified but tourism-centric economy, that Nelson Mandela Bay is an automotive centre, Buffalo city depends on provincial government and Mangaung has strong contributions from health and education.

Godongwana says the data shows that, while the metros are the country’s job generators, it also shows that there has been job-shedding within strategic industrial spaces within the metros, with more than half of the top 30 metro industrial spaces losing jobs since 2014.

It also indicates that the collapse of one metro could result in the collapse or severe decline of specific industries and that strong urban centres are also necessary for productive rural hinterlands.

“There is a strong correlation between well-governed and stable cities and increasing productive activity. Failure to get the basics right in our cities is resulting in firms and households voting with their feet.”

The Minister notes, too, that the analysis shows that townships continue to be marginalised from the formal economy and that there has been a failure, post-ap...