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Amid rising public anxiety over the prospect of a blackout, a former senior Eskom executive has added his voice to those highlighting the low probability of such an eventuality. However, he also argues that, given current fears over a grid collapse, the State-owned utility’s well-developed contingency plans should be complemented by a clear country plan for navigating such a scenario.

Babcock Ntuthuko Engineering CEO Thava Govender, who spent 29 years at Eskom where he acted as group executive for both generation and transmission, describes as a “myth” arguments that higher stages of loadshedding increase the prospect of a blackout.

“It is actually the opposite, because the system operator is taking proactive measures to prevent a blackout. So, and I need to say this quite clearly and unequivocally: loadshedding is not an indication of an impending blackout”.

He also argues that preparing for higher stages of loadshedding, as is proposed through the current review of the code governing such rotational cuts, whereby the current eight stages of loadshedding is expected to be increased to 16, could help add further safeguards for preventing a blackout.

Govender, thus, concurs with recent statements by the leadership of the State-owned utility dismissing social media posts suggesting an “imminent collapse of the national electricity grid”.

“The risk of a national blackout, while inherent to the operation of a large power system, has an extremely low likelihood of materialising given the implementation of a number of control measures, including loadshedding,” Eskom said in a recent statement, while acknowledging that it was possible that it may need to declare Stage 8 loadshedding this winter to maintain system balance in a context of rising demand and insufficient supply.

Govender also stresses that Eskom has protocols and systems in place, including stress-tested black-start protocols, should the worst-case scenario occur.

Such a scenario would arise should the frequency of the system, which is designed to operate at 50 Hz, decay to 47 Hz.

At such a frequency, all the generators would begin tripping and separating themselves from the grid, but Govender stresses that the system operator has a number of automated guardrails to prevent such a decay, with the 49.2 Hz level having not been breached since September 2015.

As the largest producer in the region, there is no prospect of repowering the South African grid by using transnational interconnectors.

Therefore, Eskom has three black-start facilities, the identities of which are not disclosed for security reasons, that will be used to begin the process of restoring the grid.

In a case where several generators have separated from grid but are “islanding” (continuing to generate and sustain auxiliary services) the restoration could take less than six days. Should all the units trip, however, restoration could take up to two weeks.

“So, while the probability of having a blackout in South Africa is low, if it does happen, it will have a very high impact.”

For this reason, Govender believes a country plan should be urgently developed to ensure that all eventualities are considered in the event of a blackout.

“In my opinion, I think Eskom has got all the plans in place to make sure there's either no blackout, or that it can recover from a blackout.

“I've gone through them, and I've witnessed them during my tenure at Eskom.

“But does the country South Africa have a plan for a blackout?

“The answer in my opinion is no, we don't have a coherent plan.”

Govender says international experience shows that much can go wrong during a blackout, given that security and telecoms systems are unable to operate fully without power.

“From a country perspective, such a plan would be about equipping all the emergency services – the police, the medical teams and the army – with clear plans and backup generation.

“Ideally, you'd want all those to automatically go on to backup either via battery backup or ...

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses Eskom's latest State of the System update, with warnings that the country is likely to dip into Stage 8 loadshedding this winter; the actions Eskom could take to try to navigate the high-demand winter months; and whether there is a risk of a total grid collapse.

Eskom chairperson Mpho Makwana has indicated that the current board is preparing a possible legal case against former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter for what he describes as “transgressions” arising from De Ruyter’s publication of a tell-all book about his three-year tenure as head of the corruption-afflicted State-owned utility.

“It must be noted and placed on record that trust was broken by him [De Ruyter] making those public statements and with the publication of the book, and this trust was broken in the most repulsive manner possible,” Makwana said during a briefing on the winter system outlook, which includes a warning of possible Stage 8 loadshedding.

By publishing a book, Makwana alleges that De Ruyter may have “transgressed” various domestic laws, as well as corporate governance rules and guidelines.

“Transgressions were carried out by an executive who was in a fiduciary position, in possession of proprietary information of a national key point, who himself evaded being vetted by processes that involved our national security agency.

“And most importantly breaches occurred in terms of the Protection of Personal Information Act, various aspects of an executive director’s duties as defined in the Companies Act, the Public Finance Management Act and his own contract of employment clauses on confidentiality,” Makwana averred.

He reported that Eskom’s company secretary was already engaged with a process of review, together with lawyers and corporate governance specialists, and “appropriate and reasonable steps” would be taken once a final report had been received.

Makwana’s statement follows on from Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan’s scathing assessment of De Ruyter’s recent actions, including his explosive eNCA interview and the publication of the book, during the Minister’s appearance before Parliament’s Standing Committee on Public Accounts (Scopa) on May 17.

“To write a book like this while you are supposed to be running a big organisation does raise some questions about what was [his] focus,” Gordhan said, while questioning whether the decision to write the book might not be in breach of governance rules and a confidentiality clause De Ruyter signed when taking on the role of CEO.

De Ruyter resigned in December and departed Eskom in late February ahead of his end of March notice period, following the explosive television interview in which he indicated that senior politicians could have direct links to coal cartels operating in Mpumalanga.

He subsequently appeared virtually before Scopa from an undisclosed location, having survived an alleged murder attempt while still at Eskom, and reaffirmed his allegations of widespread corruption and sabotage at the utility, which he said was losing at least R1-billion-a-month to theft.

While refusing to name any implicated politicians, De Ruyter defended his decision to pursue a privately funded investigation of criminality at Eskom, which was undertaken by George Fivaz Forensic & Risk.

A News24 exposé has since raised questions about the quality of the information included in the report and the credibility of the lead investigator, Tony Oosthuizen, who was allegedly an apartheid-era military intelligence operative.

Makwana reported that the board’s audit and risk committee had embarked on an independent investigation to ascertain the “veracity of the allegations made”.

Eskom has indicated that Stage 8 loadshedding – representing 16 hours of cuts in a 32-hour cycle – is possible this winter if coal plant breakdowns breach 18 000 MW and demand rises in sync with what is forecast to be a colder winter than was the case in 2022.

However, interim CEO Calib Cassim continues to insist that the risk of a total blackout is low.

“The increase in loadshedding levels does not mean there is a greater risk of a national blackout, instead loadshedding is one of the processes we use to prevent such an occurrence by managing the demand for electricity at a given time,” Cassim said at the release of the State-owned utility’s long-awaited ‘Winter Outlook’.

The outlook presented assumes that demand will peak at about 33 000 MW and that, should breakdowns rise to 18 000 MW, Eskom’s available capacity (once planned maintenance is included) will be only some 26 500 MW, leaving a shortfall of about 6 500 MW.

With each stage of loadshedding being roughly 1 000 MW, any deterioration to 18 000 MW and beyond could, thus, result in loadshedding beyond Stage 6, group executive for transmission Segomoco Scheppers explained.

Eskom’s winter ‘base case’ remains premised on an unplanned capability loss factor, or UCLF, of 15 000 MW, but the loss of three Kusile units, together with delays in returning Koeberg Unit 1 to service following an extended shutdown has translated to far higher levels of unplanned losses for much of the year to date of above 16 000 MW, with breakdowns having breached the 19 000 MW level at times.

Even under the 15 000 MW base case, however, loadshedding of up to Stage 5 will be required on most days (122 days) during May, June, July and August. At 18 000 MW or above, loadshedding is required every single day (153 days) during the period, while the intensity of the rotational cuts could be ramped up to Stage 8.

The utility is working with municipalities on a revised loadshedding code of practice, or NRS048-9, that will cater for up to 16 stages of loadshedding.

However, Scheppers stressed that the revision did not reflect an expectation at Eskom that it would be required to implement loadshedding beyond Stage 8, but was rather designed to prepare the schedules should it ever be necessary to take such action.

Group executive for distribution Monde Bala described the NRS048-9 revision as a “pre-emptive and necessary exercise” to ensure there were clear systems of control should Eskom implement loadshedding beyond Stage 8.

Group generation executive Bheki Nxumalo said that various interventions were being pursued in an effort to reduce the intensity of loadshedding, including a plan to increase the utilisation of open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to a 20% load factor during the winter period.

Through tariff increases and the debt relief package, Eskom had R30-billion available for diesel, R20-billion of which would be spent to operate its own OCGT plants at Ankerlig and Gourikwa, with R10-billion available to buy electricity from the private OCGT plants.

It has been reported previously that the year-to-date load factor from the 2 409 MW OCGT fleet has been 11%, implying a far higher level of use for the coming period.

However, Nxumalo said the main focus of the generation division was on reducing the UCLF across the coal fleet, with the goal of reducing unplanned outages to below 15 000 MW and steadily increasing the coal fleet’s energy availability factor (EAF) to 65% by the end of March 2024.

He acknowledged that it would be a difficult target to achieve, admitting that the initial EAF target of 60% by the end of March this year had not been met, with the EAF having been 56%. It had since deteriorated further to 52%.

Nxumalo reported that his current preoccupation was with ensuring leadership stability across the coal stations and reported that senior operators were being installed at Eskom’s most troubled stations in an effort to turn around their performance.

Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan tore strips off former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter during his appearance before Parliament’s Standing Committee on Public Accounts (Scopa) on Wednesday, dismissing descriptions of De Ruyter as a whistle-blower and suggesting that naming politicians fingered in an unsubstantiated privately funded intelligence report would amount to a smear campaign.

The Scopa meeting is the fourth to be convened following allegations of serious corruption and sabotage made by De Ruyter during an explosive television interview in February and subsequently also repeated in his book, which was released on May 14.

De Ruyter himself appeared before Scopa virtually from an undisclosed location on April 26 and there have been subsequent appearances by the South African Police Service, the Hawks, the Special Investigating Unit, as well as current and former Eskom board members.

Gordhan used the platform to refute a claim made by former Eskom interim chairperson Professor Malegapuru Makgoba that the off-the-books R50-million private investigation had been conducted on Gordhan’s own urging.

“With great respect to [Makgoba], he's got it absolutely wrong,” Gordhan said, indicating that he was first informed about the investigation in June or July 2022, while De Ruyter had already initiated the investigation in January.

“So, he [De Ruyter] was operating on his own free will, so to speak, on this project and, of course, at the same time it seemed he was writing a book as well,” Gordhan said, speaking after had emerged that De Ruyter had entered into a publishing contract while still CEO at the State-owned utility.

That decision, along with the book itself, came in for harsh criticism from several committee members, mostly from the governing African National Congress (ANC).

“To write a book like this while you are supposed to be running a big organisation does raise some questions about what was [his] focus,” the Minister said.

Gordhan even questioned whether the decision to write the book might not be in breach of the good governance De Ruyter claimed to champion, as well as a confidentiality clause that he signed when taking on the role of CEO.

The Minister took particular umbrage to some of the “political” sentiments expressed by De Ruyter both in the television interview with eNCA and amplified in the book implying that ANC politicians were “mindless” communists “for whom the hammer and sickle must be drawn in our parking bays”.

“[De Ruyter] seems to have remembered for some reason, in particular, the 1980s and taken the country back to ‘swart gevaar’ tactics,” Gordhan said, referring to the Afrikaans phrase meaning ‘black danger’ that had been used as propaganda by the apartheid government to persuade white voters of the threat posed by majority rule.

Gordhan described De Ruyter’s characterisation of ANC politicians as the “worst insult”, particularly for anti-apartheid activists of the 1970s and 1980s, and suggested that the former CEO saw many politicians as “fools”.

MPUMALANGA IS A CRIME SCENE, BUT . . .

However, Gordhan, who led the internal revolt during the State Capture-era of President Jacob Zuma’s administration, did concur with De Ruyter that corruption and sabotage were a reality at Eskom, describing the coal province of Mpumalanga as a “crime scene”.

Nevertheless, he stressed that it was not a new revelation nor one that had come to light only as a result of the private investigation, which was conducted by George Fivaz Forensic & Risk, but whose credibility has since been questioned.

A News24 exposé indicates that the lead investigator, Tony Oosthuizen, had been an apartheid military intelligence operative, who had allegedly participated in the killing of anti-apartheid activists.

Gordhan admitted to having been shown a “diagram” in which the names of politicians were displayed as having direct links to certain coal cartels, but refused to be drawn on their identities.

“Allegations of the involveme...

Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe has pulled back from his statement that the release of the revised Integrated Resource Plan, which he has dubbed IRP 2023, is imminent, revealing during his Budget Vote on Tuesday that the draft will be presented to Cabinet only in the second quarter of this financial year.

Government’s financial year runs from the start of April to the end of March, implying that the presentation to Cabinet will be made after July.

In an earlier briefing of lawmakers on May 9, Mantashe acknowledged that government had failed to meet its initial deadline of March for the release of the draft IRP, but asserted that “it is going to happen now”.

Speaking in Parliament on May 16 against the backdrop of intense loadshedding, Mantashe again described the IRP as South Africa’s blueprint policy for electricity generation and confirmed that it was currently under review.

“We intend to present the draft to Cabinet in the second quarter of this financial year.”

However, Mantashe added that, while the review was under way, government would continue to procure additional electricity informed by the existing policy.

He announced that the following procurement programmes would be launched during the current financial year:

Bid windows seven (BW 7) and eight (BW 8) of the renewable procurement programme, at 5 000 MW apiece, with a request for proposals (RFP) for BW 7 to be issued in the second quarter and for BW 8 in the fourth quarter;

Further RFPs for a combined 1 230 MW of battery storage to be issued in the second and fourth quarters;

An RFP for 3 000 MW of gas-to-power in the second quarter; and

An RFP for the procurement of 2 500 MW of nuclear energy in the fourth quarter.

In her address, Deputy Minister Dr Nobuhle Nkabane said the department had recently drafted a framework that would “ensure that the procurement of the 2 500 MW of nuclear energy is completed by the year 2024”.

While the proposed nuclear procurement was not surprising given Mantashe’s vocal support for the technology, the firm RFP deadline implied that government was likely to include a specific allocation for nuclear in IRP 2023.

The IRP 2019 does not include an allocation for nuclear beside 1 860 MW for Koeberg’s life extension and states only that preparations for a nuclear build programme to the extent of 2 500 MW should commence “at a pace and scale that the country can afford”.

Several commentators have already raised concerns about the potential content of the draft IRP 2023 in light of Mantashe’s ongoing push for additional nuclear, gas and coal in the future plan, despite several studies showing that the least-cost electricity mix would be based on solar and wind, supported by flexible generators and storage.

Nevertheless, the Democratic Alliance’s Kevin Mileham lambasted the delay in the publication of the IRP, which he said formed part of a pattern of under delivery by Mantashe when measured against the performance agreement targets that had been set for him in the area of energy, and which the Minister had signed.

These targets ranged from finalising a just energy transition framework, facilitating the procurement of new generation and supporting a recovery in Eskom’s energy availability factor, to ensuring Eskom’s unbundling and the security of supply of liquid fuels.

“The reality is he [Mantashe] is failing on just about every single measure,” Mileham noted.

Economic development factors have not been included as qualifying criteria for South Africa’s inaugural Energy Storage Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (ESIPPPP), through which the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy aims to procure 513 MW, or at least 2 052 MWh, of battery storage across five substation sites in the Northern Cape.

The ESIPPPP request for proposals (RFP) was launched on March 7 and the bid submission date has been set for July 5, while Eskom has selected sites at the following substations:

Aggeneis 77 MW, at a minimum installed energy rating of 308 MWh;

Ferrum 103 MW, at a minimum installed energy rating of 412 MWh;

Garona 153 MW, at a minimum installed energy rating of 612 MWh;

Mookodi 77 MW, at a minimum installed energy rating of 308 MWh; and

Nieuwehoop 103 MW, at a minimum installed energy rating of 412 MWh.

Eskom selected the sites in an effort to unlock renewables capacity in the grid-constrained province, but the storage projects selected are also required to offer ancillary services.

Bids outside of these specified substation connection areas will not be considered.

Speaking at a virtual bidders conference, IPP Office contract management and economics acting head Louis Moyse confirmed that, while 10 points had been allocated to economic development, these were neither obligatory nor a qualifying criteria.

He said the Constitutional Court’s declaration that the regulations under the Preferential Procurement Policy Framework Act (PPPFA) were invalid meant that the new regulations had been “substantially limited” as from January 16.

The court found that the Finance Minister had exceeded his powers by prescribing procurement rules to organs of State, which meant that the 2017 regulations under the PPPFA were in contravention with Section 217 of the Constitution.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana published new preferential procurement regulations, published on November 4, which he described as a stopgap measure given that the National Treasury was moving ahead with a Public Procurement Bill, which would overhaul the procurement legislation.

Given developments, the IPP Office was unable to employ the bespoke economic development scorecard used during previous procurement processes and the economic development elements for the ESIPPPP had instead been included as “specific goals”.

These specific goals had been drawn from the bespoke scorecard and included ownership, which carried the biggest weighting, job creation, local content, management control, skills development, enterprise and supplier development, as well as socioeconomic development.

“Although commitments to any or all of the specific goals are not compulsory, it is important to remember that it is a social compact of this programme and bidders should not be compelled, but it should be a natural consequence of the programme,” Moyes said.

He also indicated that, until the regulatory framework had been changed, other procurement programmes undertaken by the IPP Office would also not include economic development as a qualifying criteria.

IPP Office head Bernard Magoro indicated that, in terms of Ministerial determinations published by Minister Gwede Mantashe in line with the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019, the office had a mandate to procure 28.5 GW of new generation capacity by 2030.

The bulk of this new capacity would be in the form of wind and solar photovoltaic, but Magoro reported that procurement documentation was also being prepared for further battery storage programmes, as well as a 3 000 MW gas-to-power RFP.

IPP Office legal head Lena Mangondo reported bid responses would be scored out of 100 points, with the 10 points set aside for economic development not included as 'functionality criteria’, as was the case for the legal, technical and financial aspects.

The South African Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia) is not anticipating a domestic diesel supply crunch this winter as a result of a spike in generator-related demand, despite ongoing warnings of possible higher levels of loadshedding and the prospect of Eskom, businesses and even some households turning to the fuel in an effort to mitigate the impact of regular power cuts.

Sapia executive director Avhapfani Tshifularo tells Engineering News that domestic diesel demand has remained relatively static over the past few years and that the average monthly consumption is about 1.1-billion litres currently.

He also notes that diesel consumption in June and July last year was about 50-million litres below the average, despite the fact that power cuts began intensifying materially following a wildcat Eskom strike in late June and early July.

Loadshedding has been materially worse in 2023, however, with Eskom data indicating that more energy had been shed already between January 1 and May 4 than during 2022 as a whole, during which Eskom shed 8 301 GWh.

Eskom is yet to publish its winter plan, but there are indications that it will operate its diesel-fuelled open-cycle gas turbines at a 20% load factor, up from the 11% level for the year-to-date. It has also been confirmed that Eskom has a R30-billion diesel budget and that this might even be augmented.

“In 2023, volumes are less than the equivalent period of last year suggesting that other economic factors are at work,” Tshifularo says, suggesting that the decline is arguably reflective of current weak economic conditions.

“Diesel demand has increased steadily from 2010 to 2019 and has since flatlined [and] in 2020 there was a marginal drop due to the pandemic.

“Diesel is very closely correlated with gross domestic product growth and given lacklustre growth, we have seen diesel market growth being muted.”

At a macro level, he notes that other factors affect diesel demand significantly more than demand from generators, particularly seasonal demand associated with sowing and reaping in the agricultural sector.

“One would anticipate higher levels of diesel demand as a result of loadshedding, but on an annual demand for diesel of about 13-billion litres, this is likely to be insignificant.”

He also stresses that there was no way of determining how much diesel demand was arising specifically from generators, with demand supplied by both the wholesale and retail sectors.

“If loadshedding continues at present levels or gets worse, one could expect increased diesel demand . [but] we cannot estimate this without other information which is likely to be too dispersed to get hold off – for example types of generators sold, as well as to which parties and through which supply chains.

“The other effect is higher loadshedding may lead to a fall in economic activity and this is likely to have a larger effect on diesel demand.”

Tshifularo says there are no obvious pinch points in the supply of diesel currently, but that the industry “normally ensures adequate stocks” through imports and will take steps should any imbalances begin to arise.

He says the fuel industry is not represented at the National Energy Crisis Committee, but is kept abreast of developments through Business Unity South Africa.

Asked whether there had been a noticeable rise in diesel consumption as a result of Transnet Freight Rail’s difficulties to sustain its electric fleet owing to a spares dispute with a Chinese supplier and ongoing cable theft, Tshifularo says this, too, is “difficult to ascertain”.

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses the state of play in the electricity sector as winter approaches, with growing fears of a grid collapse and uncertainty about the role of the Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa and South Africa's approach to the energy transition. On a more positive note, Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe has promised to release an updated Integrated Resource Plan for public comment soon.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has denied that there is any incoherence in his Cabinet regarding the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) with developed countries that have agreed to extend $8.5-billion in concessional financing to support South Africa’s transition from coal to renewables.

He was replying to a question posed by the Good Party’s Brett Heron on whether recent conflicting comments by various Cabinet Ministers on the future of South Africa’s coal plants were not at odds with the JETP obligations South Africa had undertaken to heed.

The President insisted that South Africa remained committed to transitioning away from coal, but again stressed that it would do so at a pace that was in line with the needs of the domestic economy and society.

“[The deal] is a great boon to South Africa, because it brings enormous resources.

“It’s not every day that you are able to pick up $8.5-billion, and if you deal with the exchange rate today, it’s a great deal of money,” Ramaphosa said, speaking as the value of the rand was falling sharply against the US dollar and other currencies.

“If we are not finally able to close that deal, it basically means that we lose that investment that could have come our way.”

However, he insisted that there was no incoherence and also no “turf wars” between the four Ministers with overlapping responsibilities for electricity, namely Gwede Mantashe, Pravin Gordhan, Barbara Creecy and Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.

The President argued that Ramokgopa, who was yet to receive formal powers, had made a compelling case regarding the possibility of revising the coal plant decommissioning schedule in light of loadshedding, but that South Africa still remained committed to the decommissioning of its aging coal stations.

He also rebuffed an argument made by African Christian Democratic Party leader Reverend Kenneth Meshoe that South Africa was being “told” by Germany, France, the US, the UK and the European Union to transition away from coal.

“We were not told, no, we were not told.

“We have been involved in an inclusive process . . . and of our own volition we said that climate change is a reality and we see its devastating impact [and] we, like other nations, have to make our own decision and contribution . . . and we came out with our own national determination.”

He indicated the review of the decommissioning schedule was an indication that the transition would take account of the country’s specific circumstances, but added that there was no intention to avoid decommissioning as it would be too expensive to operate the old plants, which were also the cause of serious respiratory disease, for too much longer.

Ramaphosa dismissed Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen’s assertion that the governing African National Congress (ANC) was “clinging to the dirty coal of the past” because the ANC was receiving corrupt financial benefits in return, as had been highlighted in recent allegations by former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter.

He urged those with evidence of corruption, including against high-level politicians and Ministers, to make such evidence available to the law enforcement authorities.

“We cannot deal with innuendo, we cannot deal with those types of rumours without full evidence and information,” he said, while insisting that investigations would be undertaken once such evidence was provided or charges laid.

He also listed various arrests, charges and recoveries that had been made at Eskom in recent months, arguing that it indicated that government was acting against crime and corruption at the utility.

“There are pending criminal cases or referrals to the National Prosecuting Authority by law enforcement in at least 125 instances and a further 65 referrals to the Asset Forfeiture Unit relating to Eskom.

“At least 25 former senior executives at Eskom have been included in a database of individuals dismissed for their involvement in State capture and corruption at Eskom.”