The road transport sector can still reach the target of net-zero emissions by 2050 through electrification, but urgent action is required from policymakers and industry participants – this according to research company BloombergNEF’s (BNEF’s) latest yearly Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO).
Certain segments, such as buses and two- and three-wheelers are close to being on track for net zero, but action is needed to get on track elsewhere, especially in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle segments, notes the report.
“The window to stay on track for net-zero road transport emissions by 2050 is still open – but only just barely,” says BNEF electric vehicles (EV) head Aleksandra O’Donovan.
“A big push is needed from governments, automakers, part suppliers and charging infrastructure providers in the years ahead.”
The EVO report outlines two scenarios for the uptake of electric transport to 2050.
The Economic Transition Scenario, which assumes no new policies and regulations are enacted, is primarily driven by techno-economic trends and market forces.
The second scenario investigates what a potential route to net-zero emissions looks like for the road transport sector by 2050. This Net Zero Scenario looks primarily at economics as the deciding factor in whether drivetrain technologies are implemented to hit the 2050 target.
Sales Rising Rapidly
Passenger EV sales are set to grow rapidly in the next few years, rising from 6.6-million sold in 2021, to 21-million in 2025.
The fleet of EVs on the road is set to hit 77-million by 2025 and 229-million by 2030, based on BNEF’s economic transition scenario.
That’s up from 16-million units at the end of 2021.
As EV uptake continues to grow, they are already displacing 1.5-million barrels of oil demand a day, says the EVO report.
Most of this is from electric two- and three-wheelers in Asia, but rising passenger EV sales should push this to 2.5-million barrels a day by 2025.
Overall, oil demand from road transport is now set to peak by 2027, according to BNEF’s findings, as electrification spreads to all other areas of road transport beyond passenger cars.
Sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles already peaked in 2017 and BNEF expects the global fleet of ICE passenger vehicles to start to decline in 2024.
To get on track for a net-zero global fleet by 2050, zero-emission vehicles need to represent 61% of global new passenger vehicle sales by 2030, 93% by 2035, and the last ICE vehicle of any segment needs to be sold by 2038.
“EVs are a powerful tool in reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transport sector,” says BNEF advanced transport team head and EVO report lead author Colin McKerracher.
“There are very positive signs that the market is moving in the right direction, but more action is needed – especially when it comes to heavy trucks. Action also needs to focus on emerging markets, which need financial support to help enable and accelerate the transition to electric mobility of all types.”
According to BNEF, developed countries and multilateral institutions should include EV investments, incentives and charging infrastructure deployments in their international climate finance plans, making capital available to emerging economies that have credible plans to develop this sector.
Concessional finance has been a key enabler for the development of renewable power generation in emerging economies and could play a similar role in the EV sector.
Net Zero Scenario
The fleet of passenger EVs is set to hit 469-million in 2035 in the Economic Transition Scenario, but needs to jump to 612-million by the same date in the Net Zero Scenario, says BNEF.
Much of the gap will have to be met in emerging economies, while wealthy countries should look at ways to support the transition in those markets and avoid a global slowdown of adoption.
Looking at different segments, two- and three-wheelers and buses are already very close to the trajectory needed to achieve B...