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Creamer Media's Chanel de Bruyn speaks to Engineering News Editor Terence Creamer about how Stage 6 load-shedding has led to a lot of behind-the-scenes activity and discussions on the energy crisis; what the President is likely to announce; and whether this will be enough to end load-shedding.

Business Unity South Africa (Busa) has outlined a set of ten interventions that it believes could unlock much-needed investment into new generation and storage capacity over the coming two years and should be included as part of President Cyril Ramaphosa's comprehensive plan for tackling load-shedding, which is expected to be unveiled soon.

The Busa intervention envisages the introduction of 15 GW of additional generation capacity, together with 4 GW of battery storage, over a 24-month period.

The organisation calculates that 3 GW of that will be supplied by Eskom, while a further 3.5 GW will arise from ongoing procurement programmes and as a result of policy reforms.

Busa believes the 9 GW balance, which would involve investments of about R170-billion, could be unlocked through the following interventions:

Resolving embedded generation registration and licensing issues, and accelerating the time it takes to get applications approved;

Unblocking red tape constraining private sector investment in generation capacity;

Removing caps on registering self-generation projects;

Suspending local-content rules until the energy crisis has been averted;

Increasing the regularity and size of rounds for renewable energy procured through the Independent Power Producer Office;

Establishing an emergency feed-in tariff framework to enable Eskom to buy power from existing generators;

Resolving bottlenecks in the transmission infrastructure to unlock additional generation capacity;

Developing a unified and scalable wheeling framework;

Developing a public-private transmission partnership framework to speed up build times; and

Urgently addressing sabotage at Eskom, and the theft of copper cables.

“We hope that the President’s announcement will provide a clear path, with deadlines, that demonstrate the urgency with which the proposed actions will be implemented,” CEO Cas Coovadia said in a statement.

“Once it is announced, we would like to see a joint government and business working team configured and deployed to focus on delivering results against hard deadlines.

“This includes working towards deliverables that are communicated regularly, both to the President and to the public,” Coovadia added.

During the height of the Covid crisis business worked with government on a range of interventions, including the acquisition of vaccines, and Business for South Africa's (B4SA's) steering committee, which coordinated business’ actions, has been re-mobilised as Busa’s implementation arm.

“Business is ready to intensify its participation and deploy its expertise, capacity and resources to support the President and assist government to stabilise the country’s energy sector,” B4SA steering committee chair Martin Kingston said.

“The sooner the conditions for investment are in place, the sooner the country will be able to unlock the funding needed,” Kingston added.

Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) director-general Jacob Mbele has confirmed that the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 (IRP 2019) will continue to be implemented while it is reviewed, consulted and updated – a process that is set to continue well into 2023.

Speaking during a dialogue on the energy transition hosted by the Presidential Climate Commission, Mbele argued that the IRP 2019, which is widely accepted to include assumptions that are out of date, was “not irrelevant” and that its implementation would thus proceed.

“The process of updating the IRP does not place on hold the implementation of the much-needed capacity as projected in the IRP 2019.

“We are therefore proceeding with the implementation and roll-out of the rest of the capacity in the IRP 2019,” he said during the virtual event, which took place against the backdrop of ongoing load-shedding.

Eskom has indicated that as much as 6 000 MW of new capacity is needed to reduce the risk of rotational power cuts, as well as to provide it with the “headroom” needed to conduct maintenance across a neglected and undermaintained coal fleet that has become prone to unplanned breakdowns.

Both Mbele and Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe have indicated previously that a Ministerial determination is being prepared for the residual 14 000 MW of renewable energy allocated for in the IRP 2019, but which is not yet catered for under existing Ministerial determinations.

Such determinations remain a prerequisite for the initiation of procurement processes for additional generation capacity.

Mbele reported that Eskom energy planners had been requested to conduct the power system modelling and analysis required for the update and that the department had also commissioned the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and the Electrical Power Research Institute to help with the review of key IRP assumptions, including those relating to the demand forecast and technology costs.

He indicated that the review would also take account of South Africa’s revised emission reduction pledge as outlined in the 2021 update to its Nationally Determined Contribution, which was improved, ahead of COP26, to between 420- and 350-million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030. The lower range of the offer is said to be in line with what would be required from South Africa to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 oC.

Mbele refused to be drawn on a date for the publication of the updated IRP, saying only that it would “definitely not take the five years that it took to land the IRP 2019”.

In a separate presentation, the DMRE’s Thabang Audat said that the goal was to complete the update before the end of 2023.

Audat reported that the process would involve three phases and that the first phase, which included an assessment of the current plan, was under way, with the demand assessment having already been completed.

The second phase would focus on actions needed to close the supply/demand gap in the short term, while the third would focus on balancing supply and demand in the longer term, with the DMRE having already stated that the new IRP’s time horizon would be extended beyond 2030.

STACKED SERVICES

Eskom’s Ronald Marais indicated that the energy plan would need to take account of the fact that the energy services that were traditionally supplied as a bundled offering through conventional technologies such as coal, gas and nuclear would need to be catered for, procured and paid for as more variable renewable energy was introduced.

Marais said there was no system requirement for so-called baseload plant, but that the services of peak capacity, dispatched ramping, synchronous power, frequency control and voltage management would still be required.

Likening the electricity system to a bakery supplying cakes, Marais explained that a system based on conventional technologies used to supply ready-made cakes of different sizes in the form of baseload, mid-merit ...

South Africa has quite a few competitive advantages that will serve it well in entering the green hydrogen manufacturing space, Sasol low-carbon energy solutions business developer Zanele Salman has said.

She spoke during a Saldanha Bay Innovation Campus webinar, the third in a series that focuses on the energy transition landscape, on July 14.

These advantages include South Africa having access to platinum as an enabler of hydrogen reactions and being otherwise naturally endowed with available land, and solar and wind resources; being well geographically placed, with many global trading partnerships already in place with countries desiring access to hydrogen; and having processing capabilities in the mining and industrial sectors already in place, including technical skills and experience.

Sasol, for one, has experience spanning many years in producing grey hydrogen, which is a big know-how advantage, and chemicals, which also bodes well for developing a hydrogen economy.

The company considers hydrogen a great opportunity for South Africa to grow economically and to create jobs. Not only is the country able to cater to international demand but it can also supply local companies that are looking to decarbonise and access green hydrogen for their operations.

Sasol estimates the demand for sustainable fuels globally to be around 400-million tonnes a year currently, and the demand for sustainable steel to be at about 200-million tonnes a year. South Africa can also tap into the 670-million-tonne-a-year demand for sustainable ammonia, which is produced as a by-product of green hydrogen manufacturing.

Advisory firm RSS Trade and Investments group CEO Ipeleng Selele said implementation is key - “we have been talking about the just energy transition a lot, which is normal, but now things need to start happening”.

She urged stakeholders and government to take stock of the skills sets that the Southern African region has and start repurposing skills where necessary, especially in the coal regions.

Selele also deemed it vital that public education be undertaken and stakeholders be kept up to speed. She pointed out an example: if port staff are not up to date on what is happening in the green hydrogen space, how should exports be expected to proceed?

“If green hydrogen is meant to industrialise, where are industrialists at the discussion table? These discussions are often key elements missing in our approach,” she added.

Selele believed a regional approach was key, whereby South Africa and Namibia, for example, work together on manufacturing and supplying hydrogen, given both countries’ ambitions to this effect.

Moreover, research institute Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies senior economist Gaylor Montmasson-Clair highlighted how South Africa was entering the just energy transition with inclusiveness top of mind, but with policies that are moving in multiple directions.

He remarked, for instance, how the Presidential Climate Commission and other institutions were developing their own just transition frameworks, while the Minerals Council South Africa was also developing its own framework.

All the panel members agreed that a collaborative approach was necessary to effectively implement a just transition – whatever the combination of energy sources turned out to be.

Mercedes-Benz South Africa (MBSA) has set a target for electric vehicles (EVs) to be 50% of its sales in the domestic market by 2026, says Mercedes-Benz Cars co-CEO and MBSA executive director Mark Raine.

He acknowledges this to be a rather bullish sentiment in a market that sold a total of 218 EVs in 2021, but believes it is indeed possible.

“I think the South African market is ideally suited for the premium segment to become electric,” Raine tells Engineering News Online.

“Yes, Eskom may have continued difficulty in meeting demand, but premium car clients are either already off the grid, or they are thinking about it.”

These buyers also typically have households with two to three cars, which means they are not reliant on only one vehicle, and can ‘risk’ buying an EV.

In addition to this, premium segment buyers are often first movers when new technology becomes available.

“Also, from an economic point of view, it makes sense to go electric,” says Raine.

“If you are travelling between Pretoria and Johannesburg, for example, you can save between R4 000 to R6 000 a month on fuel.”

Raine says rapidly rising fuel prices are playing into the EV sector’s hands.

“Yes, our customers may be top earners, but even for them numbers like these make the decision to get into an EV much easier.”

The EQ Range

MBSA unveiled the EQ EV brand in South Africa in January.

The local arm of the Germany luxury car maker initially said it would launch the EQ range in the second quarter of the year. However, this date was pushed to the third quarter owing to the war in the Ukraine and its effect on EV availability in particular.

This means the EQ range will now make its debut at the Festival of Motoring in Gauteng in August.

“Up to now we have not released any EQ vehicles to local customers,” says Raine.

August will see the introduction of the EQA, EQB, EQC and EQS models, with the EQE to be launched towards the end of the year.

The last letter of each model’s nomenclature reflects its ‘match’ in Mercedes-Benz’s internal combustion engine (ICE) catalogue – A (A-Class), and so forth.

“We want to launch the EQ vehicles all together in order for customers to come to showrooms and see the difference in the various vehicles,” explains Raine.

“We want to give them the opportunity to make an educated choice on the vehicle best suited to their needs.”

Next year will see the introduction of some sports-utility vehicle versions of the vehicles launched this year.

By the end of 2023, MBSA should have seven EQ models available in South Africa, says Raine.

The EQA will offer MBSA’s entry into the EQ range, with pricing to start at just over R1.1-million.

That 25% Import Duty . . .

“There are three things we need to get right as a brand and as a country when it comes to EVs,” says Raine.

The first is to tackle the price disparity that exists through the different import duties levied on ICE vehicles and EVs, followed by the need for sufficient charging infrastructure countrywide.

It is also a necessity that South Africa takes a holistic view of the EV ecosystem, with a focus on having all the supporting infrastructure and people in place, such as training first responders on how to deal with EVs on accident scenes.

Price parity is a key determining factor in making EVs successful in South Africa, notes Raine.

EVs are currently subject to a 25% import duty, and ICE vehicles to a 18% duty.

“For me, looking at it from a global perspective and looking at the local market, it makes no sense to put EVs at a disadvantage,” says Raine.

“I don’t support EV subsidies in South Africa, considering the economic and political conditions in the country. This also doesn’t make sense as EVs are currently coming in in the premium segment.

“But, putting EVs at a disadvantage puts South African consumers, the South African market, and South Africa as a country on the backfoot versus the global market.

“We need price parity. We need like-for-like.”

Government is still to release its ne...

Some of the preferred bidders that participated in the Small Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme (Smalls), which has subsequently been terminated, are considering legal action against Eskom and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) to have the projects reinstated or to be reimbursed for costs incurred.

The 100 MW programme was launched in 2013 for projects between 1 MW and 5 MW in size and was open to bidders employing onshore wind, solar photovoltaic, biomass, biogas or landfill technologies.

It was specifically designed to open the market to emerging and smaller-scale South African independent power producers (IPPs), which had struggled to compete in the larger Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP).

Following two bidding rounds, a total of 20 projects were identified as preferred bids in 2013 and 2015 but, as with the REIPPPP, the Smalls programme was disrupted by a power purchase agreement (PPA) signing impasse between 2014 and 2018.

The impasse arose after the then Eskom leadership refused to conclude new PPAs with renewables IPPs on the basis of a supposed return to a surplus generation position by the State-owned utility.

The argument has since been proven to be false, with the progressive intensification of load-shedding to the point where Eskom has recently been implementing 6 000 MW of rotational cuts to stave off a blackout.

When government finally moved, in 2018, to sign outstanding PPAs for the projects concluded under Bid Window 4 of the REIPPPP the Smalls projects were not included.

The programme was, nevertheless, still referenced in a 2020 Government Gazette published by the Presidential Infrastructure Coordinating Commission, which listed infrastructure programmes that had been officially designated as Strategic Integrated Projects in line with the Infrastructure Development Act.

The DMRE reportedly undertook “value for money interactions” with the preferred bidders and provided a report to Eskom in December 2020.

By November 2021, however, the Smalls preferred bidders were informed by the DMRE that the programme had been terminated based on an “Eskom board decision and an Eskom board request to cancel the Smalls projects”.

In its correspondence confirming the cancellation, the DMRE expressed regret at Eskom’s decision, but said that it had been left in a “precarious position”, as proceeding had become impossible in the absence of a buyer.

“The department did not contemplate that the Eskom board would not approve the projects,” the DMRE told Engineering News in response to questions.

“The department and preferred bidders had ongoing engagements with Eskom for several months prior to the decision to improve the value for money outcomes to meet buyer requirements.”

The DMRE adds that the conclusion of a procurement process is contingent on the approval of Eskom board to enter into the PPA as the buyer of the energy output as contemplated in the Ministerial Determination and the Request for Proposals.

“Without such an approval, the department could not further pursue the closure of the preferred bidders,” it said, adding that it is unaware of any possible legal action by the preferred bidders.

Eskom tells Engineering News that the board decision was made after the utility adopted a “uniform risk profile with respect to the IPP programmes” that took account of drafting improvements made to procurement documentation “as a result of valuable contract management learnings” over a nine-year period.

“Consequently, by December 2020 Eskom together with the IPP Office had agreed drafting updates to the PPA for the Smalls Projects, which was aligned with the risk profile adopted by Eskom under the Bid Window 5 REIPPPP PPA and the Risk Mitigation IPP programme.

“Eskom was advised that the Smalls projects were not amenable to concluding their projects on the basis of this updated PPA and were insisting that their projects be concluded using the PPA and the r...

The City of Cape Town’s Urban Mobility Directorate has reinstalled in-road warning lights at two pedestrian crossings along Buitengracht street in Cape Town.

These intersections form part of major pedestrian routes between the central business district (CBD) and Green Point, and are frequented by locals and tourists.

During the preparation for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, there was a need to provide pedestrians with a safe passage over Buitengracht street when walking between the CBD and the V&A Waterfront.

One of the safety features decided on at the time was to install in-road warning lights that operate in sync with red traffic signals, indicating to vehicular traffic to stop.

The in-road warning lights were installed to reduce the occurrence of drivers stopping beyond the stop line and within the pedestrian crossing, thereby forcing pedestrians to divert around the stopped vehicles – sometimes outside of the crossing itself.

“Reinstalling these lights forms part of our efforts to renew city infrastructure that has worked effectively in the past, and to incorporate innovative transport nudging techniques which is a popular way of encouraging better driver behaviour across major international cities worldwide,” says City of Cape Town Urban Mobility MMC Rob Quintas.

“The purpose of the red in-road warning lights is to create a visual barrier ahead of the pedestrian crossing line so that drivers get the message that stopping beyond the lights is not allowed.

“We intend to motivate to the Minister of Transport for the inclusion of these lights in the Southern African Development Community Road Traffic Signs Manual (SADC-RTSM) in the current financial year.

“The adoption of lane lights within the Road Traffic Signs Manual will allow us to implement this light system at other major intersections where this problem exists,” says Quintas.

The original installation was undertaken as a pilot project with the consent of the Minister of Transport, who is required to approve the testing of new road traffic signs and markings that are not provided for in the manual.

The SADC-RTSM is a standardised set of signs and markings to which countries within the SADC region subscribe. It is also enforced by law in South Africa.

The 10 000th locally assembled Pik Up has rolled off the line at the Mahindra semi-knockdown line in Durban.

This follows four years after the local arm of the Indian manufacturer opened its assembly facility at the Dube TradePort Special Economic Zone.

“It is a moment of pride to see the Pik Up roll off the assembly line, knowing that it has become a much-loved part of the South African bakkie market,” says Mahindra & Mahindra automotive division international operations head Sachin Arolkar.

“We are fully committed to make South Africa our second home outside of India.

“We look forward to further developing this facility to increase production volumes with higher local content, and to also expand our reach into more countries in Africa.”

Mahindra South Africa (SA) opened the assembly facility in May, 2018, with a single assembly line and limited vehicle line-up.

Since then, the facility has reached peak single-shift production and added several additional models, special editions and customised vehicles, which it builds in partnership with the team at the Mahindra Special Fitment Centre in Gauteng.

“This is a significant milestone for Mahindra, our team and our partners,” says Mahindra SA CEO Rajesh Gupta.

“The past four years have been tough with the Covid-19 pandemic, riots in KwaZulu-Natal, the recent floods that ravaged this province and the ongoing challenge with components and global shipping.”

“The facility has enabled us to adapt to market needs and to serve our bakkie customers faster,” adds Gupta.

“For instance, our special Farmer’s Edition sold out within days of its launch and our Karoo and new Karoo Dusk, Dawn and Storm models are now available, thanks largely to the local assembly facility.”

Mahindra and its assembly partner, AIH Logistics, build a near complete range of Pik Up models, including the popular Karoo and specialised models such as the Pik Up ambulance.

Mahindra South Africa reached a new sales benchmark in the first quarter of the year when it averaged sales of more than 1 000 units a month, with the Pik Up leading the charge for the commercial vehicle division.

Mahindra South Africa says demand for the Pik Up “far outstrips supply”, noting that it will soon expand production to help shorten waiting lists.

President Cyril Ramaphosa says that he will, in the coming days, announce a comprehensive set of actions to achieve much faster progress in tackling load-shedding, which has worsened significantly over the past three years and has intensified in recent weeks to the point of being implemented at Stage 6.

Since the start of the year, Eskom has implemented 73 days of load-shedding and the utility is forecasting that rotational power cuts of between Stage 2 and 4 will be required for at least another week as it seeks to recover from a recent illegal strike, precipitated by a wage deadlock that has since been settled.

In his weekly newsletter, the President acknowledged that it was “no time for business as usual”, adding that “we need to act boldly to make load-shedding a thing of the past".

He stressed that, while there were no easy solutions, government was committed to exploring “every avenue" and using "every opportunity to ensure that we generate enough electricity to meet the country’s needs”.

“Over the past two weeks, we have been working with the relevant Ministers and senior officials on a range of additional measures to accelerate all efforts to increase our electricity supply.

"The message is clear: this is no time for business as usual. We need to act boldly to make load-shedding a thing of the past."

He said that the measures that had already been taken by government to address the crisis would "secure the supply of reliable and affordable electricity into the future", but that government was now looking at what additional measures could be taken immediately to "bring that goal closer".

"What the past two weeks have demonstrated is that we need to do more and do so with the utmost urgency," Ramaphosa added, referring to the particularly intense implementation of rotational power cuts by Eskom that coincided with a wildcat strike at a number of its coal stations.

Speaking following the publication of the President's newsletter on Monday morning, Eskom CEO André de Ruyter said that there had been various meetings over the weekend involving The Presidency, as well as other Ministers and officials to discuss ways to address load-shedding, including by introducing more capacity to the grid at an accelerated pace.

De Ruyter reiterated that up to 6 000 MW of capacity was needed to provide Eskom with the time and space it required to implement the maintenance across the neglected and poor performing coal fleet, and thus reduce the risk of load-shedding.

"We are working in a very close and collaborative fashion with all the roleplayers in government to try and accelerate the solutions that we have to bring on more capacity to the grid as soon as we can."

He confirmed that Eskom intended following up its recent release of 18 grid-ready land parcels in Mpumalanga, which is expected to result in the addition of 1 800 MW of new private renewables, with the phased release of a further 30 000 ha in the same province.

This land-release programme would probably be conducted on a quarterly basis.

Ahead of Ramaphosa's newsletter, the National Planning Commission (NPC) had called for the declaration of an ‘energy emergency’ to override any red tape currently preventing the construction of new electricity capacity, as well as to make it possible to build 10 000 MW of new generation and 5 000 MW of new storage capacity over the coming two years.

“The most immediate priority is to ensure that new generation capacity is rapidly and urgently brought on to the grid, together with significant new storage capacity.

“Evidence suggests it is possible to do this within 24 months, if 10 000 MW of new generation capacity is rapidly constructed and commissioned as well as 5 000 MW of storage capacity,” the NPC said in a statement, noting that solar and wind power projects could be built rapidly.

Ending load-shedding, the commission added, needed to become a “unifying national goal for the whole country and all stakeholders”.

To achieve the objective...

Amid ongoing delays in returning Koeberg Unit 2 to service, as well as delays to the steam generator replacement (SGR) programme across both Koeberg’s reactors, Eskom has announced the resignation of its chief nuclear officer, Riedewaan Barkadien.

COO Jan Oberholzer said on Monday that Barkadien, who has worked at Eskom for 27 years, would depart on July 31 to join a Canadian nuclear utility in an executive position.

Keith Featherstone would act in the role of chief nuclear officer, while a recruitment process was undertaken. Oberholzer reported that Featherstone had over 30 years of nuclear experience, including having previously been Koeberg power station manager.

It was also announced that Mahesh Valaitham would act as Koeberg power station GM, owing to the fact that the current acting GM, Nomawethu Mtwebana, had been selected to join the World Association of Nuclear Operators, which is based in the US, as a reverse loanee for the next year.

Mtwebana would depart for Atlanta once the current outage at Unit 2 had been completed towards the end of July.

The Unit 2 outage, which has contributed a full additional stage of load-shedding during the most recent intensive bout of rotational power cuts, has been extended from an initial return to service deadline of mid-June. This, despite the fact that Eskom announced in March that the replacement of the unit’s three steam generators had been delayed until August 2023, owing to a lack of readiness.

The SGR programme has been described as key to Eskom securing a Long-Term Operations licence from the National Nuclear Regulator to extend the life of the plant by a further 20 years. The licence is currently due to expire in July 2024.

The replacement of the Unit 1 steam generators, meanwhile, is still planned to take place during the unit’s upcoming extended maintenance, scheduled for December.

Oberholzer said it was “not ideal” that the SGR programme had been pushed back by two years and that the Unit 2 replacements would take place so close to the expiry of the licence.

“[The delays have] unfortunately created a situation that we are cramping what needs to happen for the long-term operation of Koeberg right until the end, and that means that the risk obviously is increased.”

However, he stressed that the project team had been bolstered, while the capacity of the outage team had been beefed up with the recent appointment of an experienced ex-Koeberg executive.

“We are also employing some help from international companies that have done these steam generator replacements before [and] we will also be sending some of our colleagues to visit power stations where these replacements are taking place, or have taken place, to make sure that we put everything in place to have a successful steam generator replacement project.”

There are growing concerns, however, with Koeberg Alert Alliance’s Peter Becker - who was controversially removed from the NNR board by Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe in February - having warned recently that the SGR delays would attract significant penalties from the main contractor, Framatome.

In a recent Cape Talk interview, Becker also questioned the decision by Eskom to proceed with its plan to extend Koeberg’s life, arguing that it would be better to focus on ensuring the safe operation of the reactors to the end of their licence period, so as to limit load-shedding and to create space for the building of replacement renewable generators.

The absence of the 920 MW Unit 2 for a protracted period, including during the high-demand winter months, had resulted in higher levels of load-shedding stages and the more frequent and extended use of the expensive diesel-fuelled open-cycle gas turbines.

Eskom has defended its decision to proceed with projects that would enable it to secure a licence to operate Koeberg for a further 20 years on the basis that the power station was a reliable provider of relatively low-cost electricity in a fleet dominated ...