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  • Urgent need for projects in R900bn infrastructure pipeline to be made ‘shovel ready’
    Consulting Engineers South Africa (Cesa) has urged government to take active steps to fully unlock the much-vaunted R900-billion infrastructure pipeline by ensuring that projects are urgently progressed to “shovel-ready’ status.
    Newly appointed president Olu Soluade noted on Thursday that, while tender activity had improved, there was “still little evidence that these tenders are being awarded at any sort of reasonable pace”.
    “It also raises questions about the claim that any of the gazetted Strategic Infrastructure Projects from 2020 were indeed ‘shovel ready’ or being fast-tracked on any sort of broad base,” Soluade said in an address delivered in Sandton.
    Cesa’s most recent biannual economic and capacity survey showed that the construction industry was the worst-performing sector of the economy once again in 2021, underpinned by a sharp pull-back in public sector activity.
    Half of the project activity last year had arisen from the private sector, which was traditionally not the main source of workflow for consulting engineers; public sector clients, including State-owned companies, have typically comprised about 60% of project activity.
    The survey also uncovered an alarming number of project cancellations and fierce competition among bidders.
    “As an industry, we call on President Cyril Ramaphosa, as he prepares for his State of the Nation address next week, to focus government’s efforts on unlocking the much publicised, close to R900-billion project pipeline into shovel-ready projects.
    “We believe the State can achieve this by leveraging as much of the technical and built environment capacity in the private sector as is needed to fill the gaps that exist in the public sector as a matter of urgency.”
    Soluade argued that supplementing the limited engineering capacity of the public sector with private sector skills would help ensure that the infrastructure programme contributed more meaningfully to the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Programme.
    Visible infrastructure progress was also key to reigniting hope across the country and could assist in rewriting the “gloomy narrative which has dominated our lives in recent years”.
    Soluade also issued a “call to service” to Cesa members and engineers more generally, arguing that it was time for engineers to become more proactive in contributing to South Africa’s rebuilding.
    “In every project, we must look to optimise its positive impact on big issues impacting our country, such as poverty, inequality and unemployment.
    “We must apply our minds to ensure even the smallest projects have a significant impact.”
    3 min
  • Cape Town prepares to release IPP procurement documents as load-shedding resumes
    Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis announced on Wednesday that documents detailing the city’s upcoming procurement of electricity from independent power producers (IPPs) would be published in the next two weeks.
    The documents would include the announcement of tenders for the purchase of electricity from IPPs and timelines for integrating IPP-generated electricity into the city’s supply network.
    In a statement released as Eskom initiated its first round of load-shedding for 2022, Hill-Lewis described the introduction of IPPs as a crucial step in ending rotational power cuts over time.
    “The economic effects of a reliable power supply in Cape Town will mean more profitable businesses and more job opportunities.
    “Every Capetonian will benefit,” Hill-Lewis said in a statement.
    The City of Cape Town is not the only metropolitan council weighing the procurement of electricity from IPPs, with eThekwini, Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni all having indicated that they intend to do likewise.
    In 2020, the Electricity Regulations on New Generation Capacity of the Electricity Regulation Act was amended to enable municipalities in good financial standing to procure new generation capacity in accordance with the national Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
    Cape Town, which took legal action ahead of the amendment in an effort to open the avenue for IPP procurement by local government, has been preparing its procurement plans for several years.
    It has indicated previously that it has been working with the National Treasury on a framework for a municipal-led renewables procurement programme along the lines of national government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme.
    It also initiated work on a mini-IRP in an effort to prepare the ground for the procurement programme.
    2 min
  • Policy, admin have a long way to go before ‘open’ energy market can thrive
    While State-owned power utility Eskom is in the process of undergoing major structural changes and making strides to play its part in South Africa’s decarbonisation, some stakeholders believe there is more to be done before a just energy transition can be realised.
    From a regulatory and policy perspective, Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter deemed it prudent that government create policy alignment and complementarity between four major policy streams – energy, fiscal, industrial and environmental.
    De Ruyter told Engineering News in an interview ahead of a webinar hosted by Creamer Media on February 2, that if South Africa had a more integrated policy approach, stakeholders would be better able to attract investors for projects. That would, in turn, encourage increased local manufacturing and create more jobs.
    He said integrated policies would help to address energy security challenges, as well as pave the way for an open electricity market.
    “With smart policies, we can also drive additional local content manufacturing, and have a targeted, strategic approach to it, instead of a brute force percentage requirement for project developers,” he explained, adding that government would do well to focus its efforts on giving certainty of demand for longer periods, as well as supporting supply chain development.
    For example, De Ruyter highlighted how demand for electric vehicles was not growing at the pace that it could in South Africa, owing to high import duties, which impacted on investment. However, by allowing demand to grow and initially being satisfied by imports, it would, over time, result in a response from the manufacturing industry and drive higher local content.
    Meanwhile, global consultancy EY-Parthenon executive director Paul O’Flaherty, who was the facilitator of Creamer Media’s webinar, titled ‘Advancing the Just Transition’, mentioned that South Africa had 18 000 MW of shovel-ready projects, just waiting for investment.
    He asked the webinar participants – mining company Impala Platinum sustainable developments executive Tsakani Mthombeni and energy developer Mainstream Renewable Power Africa GM Hein Reyneke – what would attract more investment in the energy sector.
    Mthombeni suggested a “one-stop-shop” entity that the mining industry, for one, could approach to conduct the necessary processes and administration to facilitate power projects, or officiate and effect wheeling agreements.
    He pointed out that companies eager to build power projects or enter into wheeling agreements often had to visit multiple government offices as part of the process, which was onerous, confusing and costly.
    In particular, he said, wheeling through the grid must be simplified.
    Mthombeni also mentioned that the cost of energy storage technology and prevailing high electricity tariffs – and uncertainty about further increases – were also major factors for mining companies considering building renewable energy generation projects.
    Electricity accounts for about 40% of a mining and processing operation’s input costs, and if the South African government delays addressing the issue, it could risk mining companies diverting their processing capabilities elsewhere, he noted.
    Further, Mthombeni believed the unbundling of Eskom into three legal entities was a step in the right direction, as it would provide a more streamlined approach to administration and processes around transmission.
    “Mining companies are willing and able to enter into power network partnerships, but it remains unclear whether it is possible and if the grid can come on board.”
    He noted that about 5 GW of capacity could be added to the grid by mining companies alone.
    Reyneke, in turn, mentioned the challenge the renewable industry had with local content and government’s changing requirements around it. Traditionally, it has been percentage-based.
    For example, the local content requirement was 50% for solar projects and 40% for wind projects in Bid Window 5 of the Renewable Energy Indepe...
    6 min
  • Eskom admits to energy rather than capacity constraint as it sheds load to replenish pumped-storage dams
    A recent resurgence of unplanned breakdowns across Eskom’s coal fleet has resulted in a serious depletion of emergency water and diesel reserves to the point where the utility has moved to implement more than six consecutive days of Stage 2 load-shedding.
    The declaration represents the first bout of rotational power cuts for 2022 and follows on from what was the utility’s worst-ever year for load-shedding in 2021, when a total of 1 773 GWh was not supplied to customers across 1 150 hours.
    CEO Andre de Ruyter reported that pumping hours across Eskom’s pumped-storage plants had increased materially, owing primarily to a lack of available electricity over the weekend.
    Diesel stocks, meanwhile, had fallen to a critically low level of only 32% at its Ankerlig open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) plant.
    Stocks at the Gourikwa OCGT power station had fallen less precipitously to 76% by Tuesday morning.
    Speaking during a briefing called only hours ahead of the implementation of load-shedding, De Ruyter reported that unplanned losses had risen to 13 462 MW, from less than 10 000 MW on January 27, while planned outages stood at 4 435 MW.
    Included in those planned outages is the extended five-month outage of Koeberg Unit 2 for both refuelling and the replacement of its three steam generators.
    Once Unit 2 is returned to service, Unit 1 will undergo the same process, resulting in the facility operating at half its 1 840 MW generating capacity for most of the year, increasing the risks of load-shedding and higher-than-budgeted diesel use.
    Eskom is on record as stating that load-shedding could be avoided until the end of March only if unplanned breakdowns remained below 12 000 MW. Should breakdowns rise to 13 000 MW or 14 000 MW, however, the number of load-shedding days would rise to two and 29 respectively.
    COO Jan Oberholzer acknowledged that implementing load-shedding to assist with the refilling of dams at its pump storage plants, as well as to facilitate a replenishment of diesel stocks, was indicative of a system that was afflicted by an energy rather than a capacity shortage.
    He, thus, reiterated the urgent need for an injection of more energy by adding between 4 000 MW and 6 000 MW to the system.
    Independent energy analyst Clyde Mallinson told Engineering News that nothing exemplified the country’s shortage of energy more than the fact that Eskom is load-shedding to fill the pumped storage dams.
    It also pointed, he said, to the mistake that was made in 2019 when Eskom claimed that it had a shortage of capacity not energy.
    As a result, the Risk Mitigation Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (RMIPPPP) was designed to provide additional capacity rather than energy, which could have been provided quickly and cheaply from solar photovoltaic and onshore wind generators.
    Should the projects eventually close, the RMIPPPP capacity will arise in the form of gas-to-power from power ships and electricity produce by hybrid facilities that combine solar, wind, batteries and gas, supplying constant, but extremely expensive, electricity from 5:00 in the morning to 21:00 at night.
    If South Africa had, instead, built 6 GW of solar photovoltaics in the two years since the much-delayed RMIPPPPP was launched “we would now not be having to shed load in order to top up our water”, Mallinson explained to Engineering News.
    “We would then be able to top up our water every day when the sun is shining and, of course, the water, when it is being released instead of being topped up, represents capacity – the 3 GW of pumped storage in the system is capacity, while the 20 hours that it can produce electricity for is energy.”
    Using the analogy of a human body, Mallinson explained that the “heart had the same capacity to pump but did not have enough blood”, and RMIPPPP’s remedy was to build a bigger heart rather than to infuse more blood into the system.
    Meanwhile. Eskom also used the briefing to again warn that the maintenance programme to restore stability...
    6 min
  • New-vehicle sales start the year with 19.5% gain, exports down 9.3%
    The new-vehicle market started the year “on a very positive note”, continuing its gradual recovery to pre-Covid-19 levels, says Naamsa | The Automotive Business Council.
    Domestic new-vehicle sales in January increased by 19.5%, to 41 382 units, compared with the same month last year.
    Of total industry sales, an estimated 84.2% represented dealer sales, with 12.1% of vehicles entering rental fleets. About 1.3% of new vehicles were sold to industry corporate fleets, with the remaining 2.4% procured by government.
    The new-passenger-car market reached 30 037 units in January, which is a 26.6% gain on the same month last year.
    The car-rental industry accounted for a noteworthy 15.3% of new-car sales last month.
    Sales of new bakkies, vans and taxis increased by 3.8% in January, to 9 629 units.
    Medium-truck sales declined by 4.3%, reaching 465 units, while heavy-truck and bus sales jumped by 9.6%, to 1 251 units.
    Amidst the largely good news, January new-vehicle exports from South Africa, however, declined by 9.3%, to 19 089 units.
    “Although the momentum on the vehicle export side at present is downwards, it is anticipated to gain traction during the year on the back of further new model introductions by major vehicle exporters, as well as a favourable global economic outlook,” says Naamsa.
    The council also expects an upward trend in the domestic new-vehicle market over the next three years.
    2 min
  • Treasury stresses concessional terms of World Bank loan as Minister’s brusque account raises hackles among lawmakers
    Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana mounted a somewhat shambolic defence of government’s recent decision to raise a $750-million (R11-billion) loan from the World Bank to support the country’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
    The Minister logged on late – and initially from his car – to a virtual meeting of the Standing Committee on Finance, convened specifically to discuss the loan and to understand why it had been concluded and under what conditions.
    Godongwana then angered several members of the committee further by providing an extremely terse explanation, which lasted about a minute, for the loan decision, before asking committee members whether they had questions.
    Several committee members – notably the Economic Freedom Fighters’ Floyd Shivambu, whose letter, calling on the Minister to explain the rationale for the loan, prompted the meeting – described the behaviour of the Minister as disrespectful and disappointing.
    Shivambu even urged committee members to issue a statement rejecting the loan, but the proposal did not gain support.
    National Treasury officials eventually came to Godongwana’s aid by providing background to the loan, as well as details of its concessional terms relative to those that would have prevailed had the funding been raised on commercial terms.
    Director-general Dondo Mogajane confirmed that it was the first time, since 1994, that government had taken up a Development Policy Operation (DPO) loan from the World Bank, having previously opted only for a specific investment loan of $3.75-billion in 2010 to support Eskom’s build programme.
    He said the DPO attracted no specific conditions and would be used to support the social relief efforts announced as part of government’s Covid response package; a package that was aligned with the World Bank’s eligibility criteria for the extension of such loans.
    The interest rate was 300 basis points below that which could be achieved on the bond markets and there was also a three-year repayment holiday.
    Mogajane said the World Bank loan would also comprise only a portion of government’s overall dollar-denominated borrowings for the year, with a further $1.5-billion also raised from the New Development Bank and $3-bilion more to be raised on the bond markets.
    The National Treasury’s assets and liability management unit head Dr Duncan Pieterse explained that the loan would, thus, make up R11-billion of the R77.6-billion in dollar-denominated borrowings budgeted for in 2021/22.
    Gross borrowings for the year would be R475-billion.
    The concessional terms of the loan, Pieterse added, would assist government in lowering its strongly rising debt-servicing costs.
    The loan proceeds were being held in the South African Reserve Bank’s foreign exchange account and the funds would be disbursed as and when required to fund dollar-denominated commitments.
    Mogajane stressed that the National Treasury was open to other offers of concessional loans “so long as the conditions [of such loans] are not going to impact on the sovereignty of the State”.
    “That’s a principled view that we have taken, and the World Bank knows this.
    “No-one is going to dictate to us on what the macroeconomic strategy and stance of the country should be [and] we have been jealously guarding that.”
    He also argued that, while more reform of the bank was required, the “World Bank of today is different to the World Bank of the 1970s, when structural adjustment policies were the order of the day”.
    4 min
  • Professional local government focused on communities can overcome service crisis – SAHRC
    The lack of well-established infrastructure development, operations and maintenance within local municipalities remains a key impediment to the delivery of services and the full enjoyment of Constitutional and human rights by citizens.
    These challenges can, however, be overcome through developing local municipalities into non-partisan, professional entities committed to serving their communities, says South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) commissioner Philile Ntuli.
    This message was provided, along with a summary of the myriad challenges local municipalities face in delivering, operating and maintaining infrastructure and providing basic services, and the severe problems citizens experience owing to the lack of services, by presenters during the SAHRC webinar on local government service delivery through infrastructure development and management.
    Speakers who participated in the webinar, which focused mainly on water, wastewater and sanitation owing to the gravity and urgency of these problems across South Africa, highlighted that multiple, consecutive reports and recommendations by the SAHRC and other statutory and research organisations to address the challenges of water and sanitation service delivery have been ignored or only partially implemented by local municipalities and national government departments.
    The reasons for the reticence and/or inability to implement corrective recommendations are similarly multifaceted and include a lack of technical skills in local municipalities to plan, design, develop, operate and maintain infrastructure; a lack of incentives and disincentives to underpin professional conduct; a lack of long-term planning and planning capacity; and rigid budget rules, as well as unsustainable revenue from basic service delivery, besides others, said municipal technical skills organisation Municipal Infrastructure Support Agency (Misa) infrastructure delivery management deputy director-general Pati Kgomo.
    The complexity and interrelated nature of the identified problems preventing the effective and efficient delivery of services require the collaboration and cooperation of all three spheres of government and all stakeholders, including communities, civil society organisations and the private sector, to solve.
    "For example, an SAHRC investigation into the challenges surrounding water and sanitation provision in Tshwane and Roodepoort found that the reasons that the wastewater treatment plants were dysfunctional were similar [to those] across all nine of South Africa's provinces and include insufficient budget allocations, continuous changes of municipal managers and a lack of skills and human resources to maintain the wastewater treatment plants," said SAHRC economic and social rights researcher Sinethemba Memela.
    "Through the investigative report, the commission found that there is a dire and urgent need to upskill and capacitate people working in municipalities, as well as that municipalities should employ people not only on the basis of their skills, but also on their integrity and commitment to serving the community," she emphasised.
    This finding by the SAHRC coincides with the National Development Plan's objective to promote the professionalisation of municipalities, which essentially means that local municipalities are less partisan and focused instead on hiring the right people with the right skills to provide services to their communities, she added.
    "South Africa, as a water-scarce country, has to adopt a multifaceted approach to ensure the Constitutional guarantee of sufficient access to water for citizens is met, and simultaneously ensure that such a scarce resource is carefully managed to benefit future generations," she says.
    DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT MODEL PILOT
    Encouragingly, there has been a significant willingness by all sections of society to help improve local government performance and effectiveness, said Waterberg district municipality municipal manager Precioustone Raputsoa.
    "N...
    8 min
  • Social cost of using fossil fuels much higher than govt gains, study shows
    The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) finds in a report on South Africa’s energy fiscal policies, that the social cost of fossil fuel combustion for South Africa is at least R550-billion a year and exceeds, by five times, the revenues government earns from fossil fuel combustion.
    The social cost includes deaths, disease and working days lost owing to air pollution and greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions.
    The report explores the extent to which South Africa's current energy fiscal policies are aligned with its goal to develop a robust domestic energy system that can provide low-carbon energy at a fair cost to all.
    Comparing government’s fossil fuel subsidies, tax and non-tax revenues with the social cost, it is evident that the public is paying a much greater bill as far as fossil fuel combustion is concerned in South Africa, says IISD policy adviser Chido Muzondo in a webinar hosted by Trade and Industry Policy Strategies (TIPS).
    She explains that subsidies and taxes are one of the key economic policy levers that governments can use to influence energy production and consumption.
    Muzondo notes that, despite some renewable energy policy efforts and carbon tax initiatives, national government still supports the ongoing combustion of coal with its R67-billion and R55-billion worth of bailouts to Eskom in 2020/21 and 2019/20, respectively.
    The State-owned enterprise also received R45-billion worth of carbon tax exemptions in 2020/21, despite being the country’s largest polluter.
    Muzondo further points out that renewable energy only has six supportive policies in South Africa, of which two can be quantified in terms of support.
    The single largest source of tax revenue in South Africa is the general fuel levy (another fossil fuel energy source), which generated R82-billion in 2020/21 and constitutes about 6% of tax revenue.
    “Fossil fuel subsidies are too high in South Africa, amounting to R172-billion a year. The IISD suggests that there needs to be a phase out of fossil fuel subsidies that have no or little potential for energy access, and instead have targeted subsidies aimed at clean energy access,” states Muozondo.
    Altarnatively, fossil fuel subsidies can be shifted to investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency.
    The IISD also suggests fewer bailouts to Eskom, and a phasing out of exemptions to the carbon tax, since it is proving to be ineffective in curbing GHG emissions at the necessary scale.
    “It is imperative that government increases transparency around energy fiscal policies – we need to be aware of where our tax money is going to,” adds Muzondo.
    TIPS senior economist Gaylor Montmasson-Clair laments that the urgency to reform is evident and says continuing with business as usual is not an option.
    He adds that inequalities are persisting in South Africa, with about 43% of households in the country being energy poor. “We need to gear towards energy access, and clean energy at that. We are part of a global ecosystem, which , if we do not start shifting, will shift us, at our expense.”
    There are already carbon taxes incoming at the borders of some countries, such as the European Union, within the next few years.
    Montmasson-Clair reckons that government subsidies should be supportive of energy access and the focus should rather be on incentivising support for cleaner energy, such as electric vehicles, than keeping up subsidies for fossil fuel energy.
    “An inclusive transition for energy need not push the burden once more on low income consumers, when we should be putting it on polluters,” he says.
    GOVERNMENT PERSPECTIVENational Treasury economist Memory Machingambi affirms South Africa’s commitment to phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and increasing carbon tax efficacy.
    She explains that the carbon tax took more than a decade to get in place, and its design today still allows for exceptions and exemptions, owing to South Africa having a developing economy and there being a need for reliable basel...
    6 min
  • Will South Africa finally ignite minerals and energy growth engines in 2022?
    Problems in South Africa’s electricity sector will, sadly, continue to dominate the headlines and undermine growth and confidence in 2022.
    Despite the fact that the crisis is now deep into its second decade, there is little sign of immediate relief and load-shedding remains a clear and present danger.
    Likewise, there is unlikely to be any reprieve from steeply rising tariffs, which were left too low for too long and have been poorly administered by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa in recent years.
    The tariff structure, too, has failed to keep pace with changes under way in the electricity supply industry and, unless urgently restructured to prevent ‘death spirals’ at Eskom and municipal utilities, will also become a threat to the much-needed transition.
    Eskom’s unsustainable debt, meanwhile, remains unresolved and there is no obvious solution that does not involve significant (between R150-billion and R200-billion) taxpayer support beyond that which has already been provided through guarantees and ad hoc injections.
    Operationally, too, Eskom sustainability remains precarious. Its aged coal fleet is unpredictable and unreliable and intensified maintenance efforts have as yet failed to arrest a steeply declining energy availability factor.
    Several coal power stations are unable to comply with the country’s minimum emission standards and will have to close prematurely, unless their lack of compliance is condoned by the authorities, as the utility is in no financial position to invest the R67-billion needed to meet the standards.
    In addition, there has been a sustained underinvestment in the transmission and distribution networks that are so key to facilitating the transition from coal to renewable energy.
    Structurally, meanwhile, the vertically integrated business model is no longer appropriate in a context of a more distributed generation portfolio that will involve not only large conventional plants but will increasingly also involve large and small independent power producers (IPPs), as well as commercial and even residential prosumers.
    The policy overlay, meanwhile, is not fully aligned with the opportunities and risks of the energy transition.
    The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is in dire need of review, as the current 2019 version fails to reflect prevailing technology costs, continues to impose artificial limits on the integration of renewable energy and is accommodative of a risk mitigation programme that is both expensive and irrational.
    There is no joined-up vision for the transition across the energy services of lighting, heating, cooling and mobility, which means that South Africa is falling behind countries with similar energy resources in grasping the economic, industrial and mining opportunities that the transition is presenting.
    Even more problematic is the political- economic framework that has many of the hallmarks of a bipolar disorder, with support for an accelerated transition on even days and attempts to turn back the clock on odd ones.
    Pinpricks of Light
    Despite this bleak backdrop, there are some pinpricks of light showing through.
    The reform allowing sub-100 MW distributed projects to proceed without a licence even when such generators are using the distribution and transmission networks to wheel electricity to related or nonrelated customers represents significant progress.
    This reform, including the regulator’s registration system for such projects, is yet to be fully stress-tested. Nevertheless, it holds the potential to facilitate significant investment, which could be accelerated further by Eskom’s decision to make land available in the grid-rich Mpumalanga province for such developments.
    It will be fascinating to see what this means for the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), the resumption of which was one of the few highlights for the electricity sector in 2021, which was also a record load-shedding year.
    Hitherto, the REIPPPP has been the m...
    12 min
  • SAWEA chair sees 100 MW reform unlocking wind investments in Mpumalanga
    The chairperson of the South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA) says the industry is well placed to take advantage of both the 100 MW reform and recent moves to release 36 000 ha of Eskom land in the grid-rich Mpumalanga province to accelerate renewables investments and facilitate a just energy transition from coal.
    Mercia Grimbeek tells Engineering News that resource measurement campaigns have overturned earlier assessments suggestive of deficient wind resources in the region to show that “a sufficient resource exists in the province for the deployment of wind energy facilities”.
    These assessments show that wind resources in Mpumalanga can reach between 6 m/s and 7 m/s, which is more than adequate for wind-farm development, using turbines that operate at those speeds.
    Grimbeek reports that developers are already actively looking to facilitate projects for mining houses and energy intensive users that could “unlock gigawatts of wind deployment”.
    Possible projects include sites in Mpumalanga, where a renewable-energy development zone has already been demarcated in eMalahleni.
    Sasol, which has a large presence in the province, has also already committed to adding up to 1 200 MW of renewable energy by 2030.
    “This is game-changing for a province that has historically been the centre of fossil-fuel electricity generation,” Grimbeek avers.
    She is also confident that wind will secure a portion of the 3 900 MW of renewables projects being developed by Minerals Council South Africa members, despite most of the announcements to date pointing to the use of solar photovoltaics.
    The outlook for the domestic wind sector, which has hitherto been driven by the large government procurement programme, is being buoyed by the fact that the regulatory environment has become less onerous for the conclusion of corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs).
    “Investors and lenders require as much policy certainty as possible and positive market reforms, such as the generation of electricity up to 100 MW without the requirement of a generation licence, are the positive signals that investors need.
    “With a supportive framework, specifically for wheeling and grid connectivity, wind energy can drive significant change in 2022,” Grimbeek argues, noting that shovel-ready wind projects can be built within 12 to 18 months.
    Nevertheless, the government-led Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) remains a key focus area for the industry, which is set to invest in projects worth R50-billion in 2022 once the preferred bids from Bid Window 5 reach financial close.
    It is anticipated that at least Bid Window 6 for the procurement of another 1 600 MW of wind will be initiated this year, and possibly Bid Window 7, and SAWEA is confident that the project pipeline is sufficiently developed to ensure that the 100 MW reform does not compete with the REIPPPPP.
    “Thirty-nine onshore wind projects were bid during the Bid Window 5 procurement round, of which only 12 were selected as preferred bidders.
    “So, this provides an indication that there are at least 27 shovel-ready projects for REIPPPP.”
    However, the 100 MW reform should also promote a more consistent procurement profile than has been the case under REIPPPP, which only resumed in 2021 after a six-year disruption, precipitated by Eskom’s then refusal to sign new PPAs.
    The utility’s new leadership is far more supportive of independent power producers and has also called for accelerated investment to close a supply gap that is currently estimated to be between 4 000 MW and 6 000 MW.
    It is also keen to ensure that the first long-term lease of its Mpumalanga land is concluded by October this year as part of a renewed effort to ensure that the 100 MW reform gains traction, notwithstanding severe grid capacity constraints in regions with superior renewables resources, such as the Northern, Eastern and Western Cape provinces.
    Consistent procurement is also seen by SAWEA and others as k...
    6 min

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