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A new study that assesses the investments required to achieve electricity security in South Africa by 2050 while also meeting the country's decarbonisation goals has reaffirmed that the least-cost way of meeting the two objectives would be by pursuing a so-called 'green industrialisation pathway' - one where up to 85% of South Africa's electricity is generated from renewable energy, supported by flexible gas, as well as battery and pumped-hydro storage.

Produced by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), the National Planning Commission (NPC), and the National Treasury-linked Southern Africa Toward Inclusive Economic Development programme, the report is titled 'South Africa's Energy Sector Investment Requirements to Achieve Energy Security and Net Zero by 2050'.

Published on November 5, the research indicates a total system investment requirement of R3.5-trillion by 2050 for the green industrialisation scenario, which also has the lowest total carbon dioxide emissions of 2.1 Gt from 2023 to 2050.

However, the scenario also has the highest upfront capital and grid costs when compared with the other two scenarios presented, including a 'market forces' scenario and a 'business-as-usual' scenario. The second two pathways have higher operational costs when compared with the green industrialisation scenario, as well as higher emissions.

The total investment required under the green industrialisation scenario to 2050 is R1.6-trillion for generation, R383-billion for transmission and R1.5-trillion for operational expenses.

The market forces scenario, which involves a more gradual shift away from coal and emissions at the upper end of South Africa's Nationally Determined Contribution, has a slightly higher total system investment requirement of about R3.6-trillion. The 'business-as-usual' scenario, meanwhile, has the highest total system investment of R4.2-trillion, despite not including carbon and air quality constraints, but has a high reliance on coal and gas.

Owing to the least-cost parameters used by the researchers, none of the scenarios included new coal or new nuclear, representing a departure from the recently released Integrated Resource Plan 2025, which has a 5 200 MW allocation for new nuclear by 2039.

A market sounding exercise conducted by the researchers indicated that yearly funding of more than R100-billion required to build the new generators, grid and storage assets could be secured by South African public and private investors.

" [M]ost of the market sounding participants (other than one international participant) indicated that there is no funding gap for energy infrastructure within the South African market over the short-to-medium term. However, local market sounding participants have indicated that there will be a significant funding gap in the longer term," the report states.

NPC commissioner Professor Mark Swilling said this funding gap could emerge in the latter parts of the current decade, owing to investor concern about policy and regulatory uncertainty, as well as what is seen to be an inadequately developed project pipeline.

Although a recent PCC report indicated that the private sector was already investing at a yearly rate of higher than R90-billion, Swilling highlighted market scepticism about whether this could be sustained beyond 2030, owing to a perceived lack of coordination, as well as policy, regulatory and pricing uncertainty.

"For example, there needs to be greater coordination and policy certainty around the establishment of the Transmission System Operator, which, in terms of the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, is supposed to be established within five years as a fully independent entity, including transmission assets.

"The private sector investors that I've been speaking to are saying that's absolutely critical to establish the confidence for ongoing investment beyond the next five years."

DBSA CEO Boitumelo Mosako said the developm...

The International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (Itac) has Gazetted only modest changes to the contentious price preference system (PPS) for scrap metal, reducing the discount for domestic ferrous scrap consuming industries from 30% to 25%.

The PPS has been in place since 2013 and disallows the export of both ferrous and nonferrous scrap unless it is first offered for sale at a discounted price to domestic industry, with the discount calculated using a formula set out by Itac and which is again outlined in the Gazette.

In addition, any ferrous scrap exported from South Africa is subject to a 20% export tax.

Chief Commissioner Ayabonga Cawe told Engineering News that the changes to the guidelines had followed on from a process that had taken 13 months to complete.

The new discount on ferrous scrap, he added, was decided on the basis of developments in the market that had affected international demand, as well as economic modelling conducted by Itac.

No changes were made to the nonferrous scrap discount.

He said the outcome was unlikely to please any of the participants in the scrap value chain, but said that it sought to strike a balance that was in the interests of ensuring that the PPS met its stated goals until its proposed expiry on July 31, 2027, in a way that supported local value addition.

"We have a likelihood here of a decision that will not make any of the parties happy, and that's often, in policy terms, the best decision," Cawe said.

The amended guideline sustains the controversial stipulation that the seller of the scrap be responsible for the cost of transporting and delivering the material to the buyer, and Cawe indicated that this stipulation had also been considered when reducing the discount.

The PPS and export tax on ferrous scrap have both come under intense scrutiny during the course of 2025, largely owing to the fact that steel producer ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) has attributed a decision to place its integrated Newcastle mill into care and maintenance and to start winding down its long-steel business partly to the policy.

The decision was initially delayed to allow for further consultations and after the JSE-listed company received a R1.68-billion interest-free loan from the Industrial Development Corporation in March. But no solution has been announced subsequently, despite several reports of a possible buy-out of AMSA.

AMSA has persistently argued that the PPS and the export tax created an uneven playing field between its integrated KwaZulu-Natal operation and those mills producing steel using the discounted scrap in electric arc furnaces.

Following a review, Itac Gazetted amended PPS guidelines on October 31, 2025, that also confirmed changes to the administrative aspects of the scheme, including the establishment of a Technical Working Group (TWG) to assist it with the administration of the PPS.

Membership of the TWG would include a representative from the Metal Recyclers Association, the South African Iron and Steel Association, the Copper Development Association Africa, the Nonferrous Metal Association, the International Zinc Association of Southern Africa, and the Recyclers Association of South Africa, and would be convened at the request of Itac.

Cawe said the TWG would be a standing structure that would ensure ongoing dialogue that would help inform Itac of "any shifts and developments that are happening in any of the materials that we regulate".

XA Global Trade Advisors CEO Donald MacKay told Engineering News that the amendment introduced a "very small reduction to the discount rate", while retaining the rule stating that the seller is responsible for covering the cost of transporting the scrap.

"That's problematic because it's an effective discount on top of the normal discount - one that disproportionately harms those recyclers that are further away from Gauteng, where most of the scrap consumers are based.

"So if you have a scrap yard in Kimberley, the size of your...

Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Rampkgopa has indicated that South Africa should be willing to pay a premium to ensure that the multibillion-rand expansion of the electricity grid is used to leverage industrialisation and transformation.

"We must be very decisive. We are prepared to pay the price and the premium for growing the South African economy … I know industry is ready," Ramokgopa said, during an engagement with manufacturing and construction stakeholders in Sandton on October 31.

The gathering was convened after various industry bodies expressed concern about both the pace and shape of the National Transmission Company South Africa's (NTCSA's) investment programme and alarm at the technical and financial criteria being used to select private grid developers under the Independent Transmission Project (ITP) programme.

In a letter to the Independent Power Producer Office, which is overseeing the first phase of the ITP procurement, the Powerline and Substation Association, the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa and the Manufacturing Circle described criteria used in the request for qualification (RFQ) as onerous, and also not enabling of participation by local industry.

Ramokgopa acknowledged the concerns and said that it would seek to remedy some of the issues in the request for proposals (RFP) for the first ITP procurement phase, to which 1 164 km of powerlines and 2 630 MVA of transformation capacity across seven corridors had been allocated.

The Department of Electricity and Energy indicated that pre-qualified bidders from the 17 consortia that had responded to the RFQ would be made by December 15, when a draft RFP would also be released.

The prequalified bidders would then be given time to comment on the draft ahead of the release of the formal RFP, which would be issued "by no later than quarter three of the 2026 calendar year".

This represented a significant delay from the original schedule, with the RFP initially signalled for release before the end of 2025.

The department said the extension was needed to ensure alignment with the establishment of a Credit Guarantee Vehicle, which was being developed by the National Treasury with the support of the World Bank Group.

RFP TO STIPULATE LOCAL-CONTENT

However, it also promised that the RFP would stipulate local-content requirements "concomitant to the local industry's capacity" and that space would be created for qualified local engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors to participate in project delivery. An issue that had been in doubt in light of the criteria outlined for EPC contractors in the RFQ, which appeared to stipulate prior ITP-type experience.

Ramokgopa acknowledged that all the localisation issues raised by industry might not be resolved ahead of the first bidding round but promised that these would be remedied during subsequent rounds and that localisation stipulations would rise progressively.

He also underlined the industrialisation opportunity presented by both the ITP programme and the NTCSA's own investment programme, which he said would depend largely on predictable and consistent demand that addressed the "cancer of start/stop" procurement.

Under the Transmission Development Plan (TDP), the NTCSA and ITP developers are expected to construct 14 500 km of new powerlines and 133 000 MVA of additional transformers by 2034 at an estimated cost of about R440-billion.

TDP FROZEN TO ALLOW FOR IRP ALIGNMENT

The TDP provides a ten-year forward-looking view of the grid investments being planned and it was confirmed that the 2024 version had been "frozen" until 2027. A move enabled through an exemption received from the regulator and justified by the NTCSA on the basis that it needed time to align the plan with the recently Gazetted Integrated Resource Plan 2025.

The TDP is currently back-end loaded, with relatively low levels of grid expansion in the first five years, accelerating dramatically in ...

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses the domestic industry's welcoming of an initiative to use private sector participation to accelerate the roll-out of grid infrastructure, as well as some of the concerns being raised about the pace of deployment and the preference

The R8-billion Cape Winelands Airport project in Cape Town has received environmental authorisation from the Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning (DEADP).

The next phase will focus on developing the detailed plans and implementation measures as stipulated by DEADP before any construction-related activities may begin.

Current planning sees the airport opening its doors in 2028.

The green light from the Western Cape government follows an environmental assessment and consultation process undertaken as per the requirements of the National Environmental Management Act.

"The granting of environmental authorisation is an important validation of the extensive work and consultation that has gone into ensuring this project meets the highest environmental and community standards," says Cape Winelands Airport MD Deon Cloete.

The proposed project entails the expansion of the now renamed Cape Winelands Airport just outside Durbanville - formerly the site of the Fisantekraal Airport - in a series of phased developments.

This includes the realignment of the primary runway and extending its length to 3.5 km.

The development will also include airside infrastructure such as taxiways, aircraft parking stands, refuelling systems and cargo facilities, as well as new terminal building and parking areas.

Future plans also include hotels and a conference centre.

Department says electrification scheme to be 'repurposed' to tackle R75bn backlog by 2030

The Department of Electricity and Energy has provided additional information about its proposal to repurpose the Integrated National Electrification Programme (INEP) to meet the country's 2030 universal access commitment - one that would involve electrifying some 1.6-million households at an estimated cost of R75-billion.

The grant-based INEP scheme was launched in 2001/2 and Eskom and municipalities have used the R110-billion allocated to the programme over the decades to electrify some 8.4-million households and increase the country's electrification rate to over 94%.

However, deputy director-general Thabo Kekana told the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Electricity and Energy that the remaining connections were more technically challenging and expensive to implement.

He added that the existing INEP delivery and funding model would also be unable to achieve the 300 000 grid connections required yearly to meet the National Development Plan's universal-access target for 2030.

About 167 000 households were currently being connected yearly by Eskom, and some 200 participating municipalities funded using a National Treasury grant allocation of about R4-billion.

FUNDING MODEL UNCERTAIN

The funding model for the repurposed programme had not been finalised, with Kekana confirming only that it hoped to enter into a partnership with the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) to help firm up the funding and delivery mechanisms.

The intention, however, was to establish a project management office at the DBSA, drawing lessons from the Independent Power Producer Office with regards to attracting private capital and in ensuring transparency.

He also confirmed that one idea was to assess the feasibility of using the R4-billion yearly grant allocation as the basis for the creation of a blended finance instrument that was able to attract additional capital, including potentially from the Just Energy Transition Partnership.

It was not immediately clear how the investments would be recouped, particularly given that the recipients of the new connections would be poor households that were already facing affordability pressures.

Various lawmakers also expressed concern about the threat of additional illegal connections.

The department made reference to the current review of the electricity pricing policy, which included a possible plan to raise the monthly free basic electricity allowance from 50 kWh to 200 kWh.

In addition, reference was made to tiered tariff models, where households consuming less electricity paid lower rates, as well as a possible flat-rate tariff for off-grid solutions and subsidies for rural and informal areas.

HYBRID MODEL

In collaboration with the South African National Energy Development Institute (Sanedi), the department said it had developed a repurposed model that adopted a so-called hybrid approach, involving both conventional grid connections and decentralised systems, such as microgrids comprised of solar, batteries and inverters.

Sanedi's Dr Karen Surridge said the criteria for determining whether to proceed with a conventional grid connection or a microgrid would be based on the cost of the new connection, the distance from existing infrastructure, population density, geographic conditions, and energy demand.

She also outlined the three types of microgrid solutions that would be considered, including:

An entry-level and standalone solar-battery-inverter system for poor households in remote areas, which would provide electricity only for lighting, phone charging and light appliances;Larger systems for rural communities that could offer lighting, small refrigeration, and some light appliances; andA full microgrid, which would provide households with a comprehensive electricity service that could support larger appliances and small business activities.

Describing access to electricity as a basic right, Surridge argued ...

Logistics giant Maersk has wrapped up a R1.72-billion investment drive in cold-chain infrastructure in South Africa with the opening of the R800-million Maersk Belcon cold store logistics park in Cape Town, located at Transnet Park in Bellville.

The event follows the opening of Cato and PreCool cold stores in KwaZulu-Natal.

The Belcon facility was commissioned to support fruit and other agricultural exports from the Western Cape, with the goal to facilitate an unbroken cold chain from farm to final markets, said Maersk Southern Africa & Islands MD Lubabalo Mtya at the ribbon-cutting ceremony on Tuesday.

It was, for example, estimated that the grape industry lost up to R1.5-billion a year owing to delays and broken cold chains within the South African logistics ecosystem.

Maersk Indian subcontinent, Middle East and Africa regional MD Richard Morgan said the Belcon facility had exceeded expectations since its commissioning in June, with an especially optimal performance during the peak citrus export season in August.

He expected the same performance with the table grape export season looming on the horizon.

The Belcon cold store logistics park consists of the cold store and a depot, with room for a second phase expansion.

A 2.2 MW solar PV installation is on the cards for April next year.

Construction work on the cold store started in April 2024, with the first pallets received in May this year.

In July, the facility achieved a peak volume of 18 692 pallets for the month.

The cold store has 10 088 pallet positions, 240 reefer plug points, seven loading docks, 248 container wash bays, six holding rooms and six Steri chambers.

The location offers both rail and truck options to reach the Port of Cape Town, as well as for deliveries from farms to the cold store.

Fruit Industry Wants To Grow Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) chairperson Gerrit van der Merwe said facilities such as Belcon provided the association's 1 400 members with the possibility to play on a bigger scale - to "become world champions".

He said competition in the South Africa industry no longer emanated from the farm next door, but from other citrus growing countries, such as Peru, Chile and Spain.

He noted that the local industry remained eager to plant more capacity, which would, however, require improved logistics efficiency.

South African Table Grape Industry CEO Mecia Petersen said total South African fruit production output had increased by 19% over the last five years, with 61% of total output exported, which translated into roughly 3.7-million tons of South African fruit travelling across the globe.

"The more fruit you produce, the more you need to export - and the more you need logistics infrastructure," she emphasised.

"Growing fruit, having quality produce - it's no longer enough to remain competitive. We need to be known as a trusted supplier, and logistics is the backbone of being a trusted supplier."

Petersen noted that South Africa's ports continuously ranked at the bottom of global efficiency ratings.

"This is not to say there are not initiatives to improve - there are many initiatives. The Port [of Cape Town] is working hard…efficiencies have improved, but the more fruit we produce, the more we need to keep increasing that. We all need to work together to ensure we stay competitive."

The South African fruit industry employed 320 000, linked to 1.28-million dependants. Around 105 000 of these jobs were in the table grapes sector, said Petersen.

She added that the agricultural industry was one of the few sectors that could create large-scale employment for unskilled workers.

The latest edition of the South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey (SAREGS) has again confirmed that there is a strong and growing development pipeline of solar PV, wind, battery and hybrid projects across the country.

The survey is conducted yearly by the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) in partnership with the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association and the South African Wind Energy Association.

The 2025 edition secured a record 673 responses, up from 483 in 2024, and the results will be available on the NTCSA website.

The responses point to there being 220 GW of potential renewables capacity at various stages of development nationwide, including over 72 GW classified as being at an advanced development level.

These so-called 'Type A' developments are projects that have secured an environmental approval, where feasibility studies have been completed and where the facility could enter into commercial operation within three years should it be able to secure a grid connection.

When releasing the survey results, NTCSA strategic grid planning manager Ronald Marais reported that the SAREGS had become an important planning tool and a key input into the Transmission Development Plan (TDP).

The TDP is also updated yearly and outlines the powerlines and substations that will be added or strengthened over a ten-year horizon.

The 2025 SAREGS results once again confirm solar PV as the leading technology under development currently, comprising 121 GW of the 220 GW pipeline, up from 76 GW in the 2024 survey.

Respondents also indicated that more than 83 GW (49 GW) of wind is under development, as well as 82 GW (44 GW) of battery storage, mostly with four hours of storage. Some of the battery projects are standalone in nature, but many are linked to solar PV and even wind projects.

While the geographical spread was broad-based, the Northern Cape continued to attract the most interest from developers with 48 GW of responses.

Apart from Gauteng, the scale of developments in all other regions also grew, with the pipeline in the Hydra Central and the Free State regions rising to 31 GW (19 GW) and 27 GW (20 GW) respectively.

These regions were followed by Mpumalanga (21 GW), Eastern Cape (21 GW), Western Cape (20 GW), North West (18 GW), Limpopo (18 GW), Gauteng (7 GW) and KwaZulu-Natal (4 GW).

Respondents also continue to show interest in South Africa's public procurement programme, particularly in the near term. But the majority of projects were being geared towards private offtake opportunities, including through traders, or a combination of public and private opportunities.

A significant number of survey respondents also registered an interest in providing ancillary services, including reserves, black-start capabilities, reactive voltage supply and voltage control.

Given the importance of grid availability to the projects actually proceeding, some participants used the virtual launch to underline the need for the NTCSA to follow up the SAREGS with an updated Grid Capacity Connection Assessment to provide information on how much new electricity generation could be connected to the national grid.

No firm deadline was provided for such a release, though.

However, in response to a question about what the SAREGS meant in relation to the updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), Marais said the results indicated that the renewables and battery components of the IRP could be "more than adequately addressed".

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses the contents of the latest edition of the Integrated Resource Plan for electricity, or IRP 2025, and what some of the reactions have been.

Seriti Green CEO Peter Venn says the ease with which individuals with deep coal industry experience have transitioned into renewable energy has been a remarkable aspect of the company's recent progress in implementing its first large-scale wind projects in the coal region of Mpumalanga.

Seriti Green is majority owned by Seriti Resources, a black-owned coal mining company that has also contracted for all of the 500 GWh of electricity to be produced yearly from the first 155 MW phase of the Ummbila Emoyeni Wind Farm for its eight coal mines.

Licensed traders Energy Exchange of Southern Africa and the NOA Group are the offtakers for the subsequent two 155 MW apiece phases, which have also advanced to financial close, having attracted debt finance from Absa, RMB and Standard Bank.

The three wind developments are part of a multiphase programme to install 750 MW of wind capacity on private farms close to the relatively developed Bethal, Davel and Morgenzon towns, from where Seriti Green's contractors have recruited more than 50% of the individuals currently building the projects.

It is envisaged that construction of the approved projects will continue for seven years, with each phase overlapping to improve efficiencies while simultaneously providing stable employment for the more than 1 200 people involved in construction.

Seriti Green has already received approvals for another 500 MW wind development in Mpumalanga and permitting work is ongoing.

Should it be successful, Venn says it could result in an expansion of its wind portfolio in the region to up to 3 GW over the coming decade and a bit, which would extend the employment and economic spinoffs even further.

BETHAL HQ

The company has also decided to establish headquarters in Bethal, where it is currently renovating what was previously a bus depot into its head office, and is also considering various ways to increase local content, including prospects for nacelle assembly and the use of concrete towers.

Venn reports that the majority of Seriti Green's initial team of 17, which has subsequently grown to 65 people, joined from the coal industry; a factor that he believes has been central to the progress made since the company's official launch in 2023 after Seriti Resources acquired a majority stake in Windlab Africa.

"Their vast experience from the coal mining sector has been invaluable," Venn tells Engineering News & Mining Weeky, explaining that it enabled Seriti Green to build on existing relationships with the community, municipal authorities and engineering suppliers.

"My personal belief is that no renewable-energy developer will build a wind farm in Mpumalanga without deep mining relationships, as you need to understand the expectations around social labour plans, for instance, as well as those of local government."

In addition, many of the technical and project management skills have proved to be immediately transferrable, not only in building the projects, but in managing the logistics of bringing in large equipment into Mpumalanga through the Port of Richards Bay in neighbouring KwaZulu-Natal.

ENTREPRENEURIAL ENERGY

Historical links to the supplier community in the territory have also proven valuable, with several small contractors having been integrated into construction alongside more established market participants such as Stefanutti Stocks and Tractionel Enterprise.

By way of example, Venn noted the work being done by a company set up by an entrepreneur named Freddie Mkhwanazi, which is now contracted to do the wire fixing for all of the wind turbine foundations.

"Freddie's company, HMI Projects, employs comfortably 20 people and we are going to be putting in foundations for the next seven years, which I think offers a visible example of what the Just Energy Transition can achieve," Venn tells Engineering News & Mining Weekly.

Each phase involves 25 Goldwind turbines that each have a nameplate capacity of 6.2 MW, have blade lengths of 91 m, and which stand at 221 ...