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The City of Cape Town (CoCT) says it will have business plans in place by the middle of next year to take over the management of passenger rail services in the metro.

This follows the city council's adoption of the outcomes of a rail feasibility study, with the key finding that Cape Town should be in control of passenger rail to ensure a functional and efficient service in line with its mandate of providing an integrated public transport system.

In a speech to council, Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis also announced that the city had received a signed short-term Service Level Plan (SLP) from the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA), following months of negotiations, with the SLP laying the foundation for the potential future devolution of the rail service to municipal level.

PRASA currently operates the Metrorail service as a national function.

A newly drafted White Paper on National Rail Policy allows for rail to be devolved to capable municipalities.

"Taking charge of Metrorail is especially important for lower income households, who would save an estimated R932-million a year if trains were working as they should," said Hill-Lewis.

"We have a vision to massively scale up passenger numbers, new train sets, new routes, and to upgrade stations and the surrounding areas with affordable housing over the next two decades.

"This is why we are glad to announce that PRASA has sent us a signed SLP to improve Metrorail in the short-term, which the city will monitor via a joint committee with PRASA.

"The SLP lays the foundation for future rail devolution to the benefit of Capetonians and our local economy.

"This is a big step towards improving the quality and reliability of the service through a legally binding agreement," noted Hill-Lewis.

The SLP allows for regular progress reports from PRASA, with the city exercising oversight over yearly performance plan commitments to revitalise stations, introduce more train sets, recommission service lines, and improve the number of daily passengers and train trips.

As part of the SLP, the CoCT commits to providing the municipal services needed to support and enhance passenger rail; encouraging transit-oriented development along rail corridors; and expediting permits within the city's services and development planning authority roles.

Three Devolution Scenarios; R123bn Price Tag

Cape Town started its rail feasibility study in July 2022, with the aim to investigate the impact and implications of devolving passenger rail services to city level.

With this study now completed, business plans will be developed for three ownership models:

Number one: The city owns, operates and maintains the rail network, stations and trains, and absorbs PRASA's personnel.

Number two: The city owns all rail-related assets and concessions the rail network, stations and responsibility for all train operations and maintenance, and the concessionaire absorbs PRASA's personnel.

Number three: The city procures a large-scale integrated solution through a comprehensive concession.

The potential financial implications were evaluated through a cost:benefit analysis to determine the extent to which the rail system would require financial support.

The estimated cost in nominal terms (which allows for inflation) over a 30-year period amounts to R123-billion.

As such, a subsidy will be required from national government, as well as significant private-sector investment into passenger rail, states the study.

"The business plans will now further investigate the financial, operational and strategic viability of the preferred ownership models," says CoCT Urban Mobility MMC Rob Quintas.

"These will be comprehensive and detail the funding strategies, financial modelling, and operational management plans.

"Once complete, the business plans will give us further clarity on the requi...

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Eskom Group CEO Dan Marokane has outlined an "aspirational" new generation capacity profile to 2040, showing that the State-owned entity has an ambition to progressively replace its aged and polluting coal fleet with new and cleaner technologies.

No project details or funding plans have been provided, however, with Eskom confirming only that the capacity profile was "indicative" and included "aspirational and unfunded projects".

Capital expenditure figures were also not indicated and no individual projects were identified.

Having previously declared that Eskom had a 22 GW project portfolio, Marokane told members of the Portfolio Committee on Electricity and Energy that the generation division, which is yet to be unbundled, was "working on a pipeline of new clean energy to ensure security of supply in the long term".

A slide included in the presentation shows that Eskom aims to progressively replace its coal fleet with wind, solar PV, battery and pumped-hydro storage, as well as with gas-to-power and even new nuclear.

Having received permission at the height of the country's loadshedding crisis to delay, until 2030, the decommissioning of several coal stations that were initially scheduled to close by 2025, the slide also includes an updated decommissioning profile.

It shows that 11 GW of coal generation will be shut by 2031, rising to 23 GW by 2040, but the names of individual stations or units at those stations were not included.

It also shows Eskom's nameplate generation rising from a nominal 47 GW currently to an "aspirational" 77 GW by 2040, but with a materially different mix.

Eskom is currently trading under conditions set as part of a R250-billion debt-relief package, which was reduced from R254-billion after Eskom failed to dispose of noncore businesses in the timeframe stipulated by the National Treasury.

The taxpayer support also came with a condition disallowing Eskom from raising any new debt for new generation projects.

The pipeline outlined also did not align with the recently remodelled Integrated Resource Plan assumptions released by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy.

That remodelling carries an assumption that Eskom could add 5.1 GW by 2030, including capacity associated with the yet-to-be-completed Kusile power station and a 3 GW gas project in Richards Bay for which it has received a Ministerial determination.

Eskom's slide indicates that renewable and battery storage capacity alone could amount to 14 GW by 2030, but again no funding details were provided.

Marokane also provided an update on some key generation projects, which could introduce an additional 2 524 MW of capacity by the end of March.

He confirmed some delays with the completion of Kusile Unit 6, as well as the return to service of Koeberg Unit 2.

Kusile Unit 6 is now expected to synchronise to the grid in January, which is when the Koeberg reactor is also now expected to return, while Medupi Unit 4 is said to be on track for a return in March.

Significant attention will also be given to whether the three Kusile units currently operating using temporary stacks that bypass the flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) plant will be returned as planned.

The temporary stacks were installed after a flue duct collapsed in October 2022, which left the three units that shared a common chimney inoperable. The units were given permission to bypass the FGD plant until the end of March.

The impact of the delays has been somewhat softened, however, by the materially improved performance of the rest of the coal fleet, which has allowed Eskom to operate loadshedding-free since March 25.

Marokane said Eskom's energy availability factor (EAF) had improved by 8.41 percentage points year-on-year, but told lawmakers that it might still end the year "slightly below the 65% EAF target".

"Eskom is turning ...

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A bi-lateral country project by the Electric Mission in South Africa and the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association has presented a proposal to the South African government, including National Treasury and the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, on how to make electric vehicles (EVs) more accessible to new-vehicle buyers.

These changes should also serve to grow the pre-owned EV market.

Electric Mission executive director Hiten Parmar says it is possible to tweak existing vehicle tax structures in South Africa to make EVs a more attractive buy, as has been the case in Norway.

In short, it could, for example, be possible to reduce the existing ad-valorem tax on EVs, and to increase the existing carbon tax on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to balance out the market between the new and old technology.

Parmar is positive the bi-lateral project's proposed recipe could ensure effective EV uptake, without impacting government's revenue on new-vehicle sales.

"We don't have to discuss preferential duties, as this would be raised automatically in the next round of trade agreement negotiations. We rather opted to focus on what was already in place.

"This is not a subsidy scheme, but an incentive to broaden the appeal of zero-emission vehicles to new-vehicle buyers."

Parmar says the EV market in South Africa has been growing year-on-year since 2013, but at a much slower rate than internationally - in both developed and developing regions.

Boosting local EV adoption is vital, however, as it will stimulate South Africa's existing vehicle manufacturers towards local production of EVs for both the local and exports markets.

Parmar says while the proposal would initially make all EVs, including imported vehicles, more attractive to buyers, the end goal is to create demand for locally produced EVs and their associated South African-made components.

With the global shift away from fossil fuels, South Africa must keep pace with international developments in order to safeguard its local automotive industry and its associated employment, he notes, especially as the country's primary export markets of the UK and Europe have already announced phase-out targets for ICE vehicles.

Parmar says the proposed tax adjustments have international references, including Norway as a global leader in EV adoption, with the Nordic country using its taxation system "to emphasise the polluter-pays principle" in order to promote cleaner technologies.

"Norway's EV fleet has grown tremendously in a decade, and not by making EVs cheap by comparison to ICEs," says Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association secretary-general Christina Bu.

"Instead, the focus has instead been to near-equalise the pricing for the consumer, making it equally attractive to opt for EVs.

"The result has seen a tremendous shift in consumer purchasing to EVs year-on-year."

New-vehicle sales in Norway are now consistently above 90% in favour of EVs, with the goal for this being 100% zero-emission vehicles by next year.

Bu was recently featured in the inaugural TIME100 Climate, a list by Time Magazine of 2024's most influential leaders driving business to real climate action.

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The National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) has told lawmakers that a "step change" will be needed in the delivery of new grid infrastructure if 14 500 km of new powerlines and 133 000 MVA of additional transformers are to be added to the grid by 2034.

However, government and NTCSA were still investigating possible private-sector participation as a "potential alternative delivery mechanism". This, in addition to its traditional engineer, procure and construction management approach, as well as through the more recently adopted engineer, procurement and construction (EPC) contracting model.

Some additional "self-build" by independent power producers seeking to connect their generators to the grid has also become a feature in recent years, but South Africa has not yet fully embraced independent transmission projects (ITPs), based on build-own-operate-transfer or build-operate-transfer models.

While the National Treasury and Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa are keen to facilitate the procurement of ITPs from 2025 onwards, the NTCSA is reticent, having indicated that it does not want such projects to reflect as a liability on its balance sheet.

It has, however, referred recently to a build-and-transfer model, which it describes as "EPC with finance".

In a briefing to the Portfolio Committee on Electricity and Energy, interim CEO Segomoco Scheppers focused primarily on the NTCSA's own corporate plan, which involves R112-billion of capital expenditure by the NTCSA during the first five-year period of the Transmission Development Plan (TDP) to 2029.

The TDP itself has been divided into two phases, with the first phase to 2029, far less ambitious in scale than is the case for the period after 2030.

During the first phase, 5 043 km of powerlines and 41 325 MVA of transformers are planned, as compared with 9 450 km and 91 325 MVA of transformer between 2030 and 2034.

The ramp-up under the first phase is also relatively modest, with only 286 km planned for the current financial year, alongside 2 380 MVA, rising to 2 122 km in 2029 and 18 735 MVA.

Scheppers said delivery will be dependent on the outcome of Eskom's revenue application that is currently before the regulator, as well as the "mobilisation of capital, contractors, suppliers and skilled workers and professionals".

He also highlighted five key delivery challenges, including:

the acquisition of land and servitude rights in a context where some landowners are resistant to cooperate;

servitude encroachment mainly from informal settlements that is preventing project teams from accessing transmission lines;

a lack of line construction capacity, which is being addressed through contractor incubation and the creation of EPC powerline contractor panels;

insufficient manufacturing capacity for large transformers, which has led NTCSA to pre-qualify 22 international factories; and

limited fabrication capacity and competition for the structural steel needed for powerline towers.

Scheppers told lawmakers that various actions were being taken to address these challenges to delivering on the TDP, alongside initiatives to alleviate grid constraints in the short term.

He also said that the NTCSA was working on interventions and projects to ensure system security and stability as the penetration of variable renewable energy generation increased, including through the introduction of synchronous condensers at strategic locations on the grid.

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New-vehicle sales in November continued the positive momentum seen in October increasing by 8.1%, to 48 585 units, compared with the same month last year.

naamsa | The Automotive Business Council reports that the new-passenger-car market jumped by 20%, to 35 101 units during November, with car-rental sales accounting for 19.5% of this number.

The new-commercial-vehicle market failed, however, to mimic this performance.

Sales of new bakkies, vans, small trucks and minibus taxis - light commercial vehicles - dropped by 16.3%, to 10 827 units.

Medium-truck sales declined by 9.2%, reaching 699 units, while heavy-truck and bus sales dipped by 0.5%, to 1 958 units.

New-vehicle export sales also continued its dismal performance in November, dropping by 28.6%, to 30 431 units.

For the first 11 months of the year, vehicle exports were now 23.9% below the corresponding period last year, driven mainly by poor economic conditions in South Africa's major export markets.

Naamsa believes that November's sales numbers could signal the start of a long-awaited upward trend in the new-vehicle market.

"In view of the stronger year-end performance, new-vehicle sales were now only 3.5% below the corresponding period in 2023.

"Further interest rate cuts in the new year would support vehicle affordability across all the various segments."

National Automobile Dealers' Association (NADA) chairperson Brandon Cohen notes that November is traditionally challenging for the motor industry, as many consumers postpone purchases until January to benefit from new-year registrations, or await year-end bonuses, typically paid in December.

"Despite these factors, dealers have navigated the month with careful strategies, considering the competitive environment."

He adds that the commercial vehicle market continues to reflect the economic challenges facing SA Inc.

As year-end approaches, there is hope within NADA for a strong end to the year.

"With some stock available in key segments and marketing support from manufacturers expected, there is potential for a positive finish to the year," says Cohen.

"The strong rental industry sales signal a promising festive season, which we hope will set the stage for a better trading year in 2025."

Consumer Budgets Still Strained

According to WesBank, November sales delivered the best performance for the new-vehicle market since March last year.

"But, there is a lot more momentum to create before the country's automotive industry can rest easier," warns marketing and communication head Lebo Gaoaketse.

"Consumers remain under severe household budget constraints, displayed in two key pieces of WesBank data.

"The average deal size financed by the bank is 6% lower year-on-year for new vehicles, indicating affordability concerns amid new-car-price inflation.

"In addition, despite sales being significantly higher than a year ago, demand as measured by [credit] applications has softened substantially."

"Consumers have welcomed the second interest rate cut and will be hoping for the trend to continue," says Gaoaketse.

"In addition, the energy crisis is seemingly under control, inflation has been lower for five consecutive months, the currency is performing better, and fuel prices are contributing to budget savings - but all this positive impetus will take time to filter through to overall market performance and general consumer affordability.

"We continue to be on the slow path of recovery, and while positive market growth for two months should be celebrated, cyclically softer December sales should be expected as consumers delay purchase decisions into the new year.

"However, the market remains primed for some stability during 2025 if October and November performances can be sustained."

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Long simmering tensions in South Africa's steel sector appear to be coming to a boil following a joint statement by the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) and ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA).

In it, the trade union and the steel producer confirmed that Numsa would step back from a planned strike against retrenchments at the company, triggered by the closure of coke batteries 6 and 7 at Vanderbijlpark.

However, Numsa general-secretary Irvin Jim also used the statement to call for urgent government interventions aimed at stemming yet further job losses and deindustrialisation in the sector, including by preventing the possible closure of AMSA's Newcastle mill.

Having been briefed by AMSA CEO Kobus Verster on the "dire situation facing the business", Jim concluded that the JSE-listed company had been left with "no option but to restructure its operations".

Jim expressed deep concern about the potential closure of the Newcastle plant, which he said would place 3 500 jobs at risk and have broader ramifications for South Africa's manufacturing capabilities.

The statement also lists "burning issues" that AMSA says are affecting the Newcastle mill's sustainability, including the prevailing price preference system (PPS) in place for scrap metal, as well as the tax on scrap exports.

For years, AMSA has opposed the PPS and the tax on the basis that it offers electric arc furnaces (EAFs), which use scrap to produce steel, an unfair advantage over blast furnaces, which use iron-ore.

Numsa urged government to urgently engage with AMSA on its call for the removal of the PPS and export tax, as well as on several other issues said to be undermining the Newcastle mill's competitiveness, ranging from unfair trade practices to uncompetitive electricity, rail and port tariffs.

"It is essential that government, particularly the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (dtic), leads a process of solution-oriented engagement with all stakeholders to address these urgent challenges and preserve the sustainable future of South Africa's steel industry," Jim said.

The joint statement has since been followed by additional calls for the dtic to play a leadership role in tackling the steel crisis by the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (Seifsa) and the Manufacturing Circle, which both warn of looming threats to employment in the sector and the country's industrialisation prospects.

Seifsa CEO Lucio Trentini has made several recommendations to address the "survival" of the industry in the immediate term, including assessing the incentives in place for scrap and other commodities, such as iron-ore, chrome, manganese and coke.

In addition, Seifsa urged government to act on imports through trade instruments such as tariffs; leverage government procurement to provide a preference for local steel; coordinate and consolidate steel-related project demand on a national basis through Operation Vulindlela; and to intervene on high logistics costs.

The Manufacturing Circle, meanwhile, warned of "serious consequences" that would arise should the issues identified by Numsa not be addressed.

"We strongly welcome Mr Jim's pronouncements and his union's call on government to urgently do everything possible to avert any potential for what could prove to be a profoundly negative impact on the South African economy," Manufacturing Circle executive director Philippa Rodseth said in a statement.

"The Manufacturing Circle is particularly concerned that a faltering steel industry would not be in a position to support the reindustrialisation of South Africa - a process that we believe is now, finally, beginning to take shape," she added, highlighting the recent "uptick" in fixed investment.

STEEL PRICE WARNING

However, Barnes Group CEO Doron Barnes, who has overseen a...

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses the intense set of consultations on an updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for electricity held by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy this week; the big themes that have emerged as part of the processing of updating the IRP; the response, thus far, to the updated IRP; and what will happen next.

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South African National Energy Development Institute CEO Dr Titus Mathe has confirmed that a report containing a remodelled Integrated Resource Plan for 2024 (IRP2024) and incorporating stakeholder comments will be released into the public domain before it is sent to Cabinet for its approval by end-March.

Mathe is chairing a committee set up to oversee a review of the much-criticised draft IRP2023.

No specifics have been provided regarding the timing of the release, however, given that the draft document would be subjected to an internal technical assessment, as well as and an international benchmarking evaluation by a Chinese energy research institute before being published.

Mathe told participants during a hybrid public consultation session in Cape Town that the new draft was unlikely to be finalised by the November 30 deadline initially set by Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, who also addressed the gathering.

This, owing to the fact that the drafting team intended to integrate inputs received during a series of intense public and technical consultations, held during the last week of November.

During these consultations, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) provided insight into the updated demand, supply and technology cost assumptions used to remodel the IRP and to produce five new scenarios.

These scenarios differed materially from those included in the draft IRP2023; a document that generated more than 4 300 public comments following its release in January.

These comments were largely critical both of the input assumptions used in the initial modelling, as well as an outcome that failed to address security of electricity supply and, thus, included loadshedding until at least 2027.

The new remodelling has been conducted by a technical team comprising officials from the DMRE, Eskom and the National Transmission Company South Africa using the Plexos energy modelling software.

A key change relates to the energy availability factor (EAF) arising from Eskom's coal fleet, the performance of which has improved dramatically since the publication of the draft IRP2023.

Nevertheless, stakeholders have questioned whether the new EAF base case of between 66% and 72% for the period from 2025 to 2050 is sustainable and the DMRE has indicated that it may revise the assumption used in the final document.

Together with an expectation of demand growth of 1.5% to 2% over the period to 2050, the upward revision to the EAF means that loadshedding is now avoided; including for the period to 2030, during which the DMRE is assuming 38.5 GW of new "committed" generation will be added.

The department's Sonwabo Damba said this new-build assumption had been derived from its assessment of capacity that would be procured from independent power producers through both public (8.6 GW) and private (13.8 GW), as well as new Eskom capacity (5.1 GW). It also assumes ongoing growth in rooftop solar PV capacity from 5.9 GW currently to 11.3 GW by 2030.

Within that pipeline of committed capacity is 6 GW of combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generation for which Ministerial determinations have been Gazetted, including Eskom's 3 GW Richards Bay CCGT project.

For the period from 2031 to 2050, five scenarios have been, including:

A 'Reference Case', comprising 11.3 GW of CCGT, 13.8 GW of open cycle gas turbine (OCGT) capacity, 24.3 GW of utility PV, 76.4 GW of wind, and 4.4 GW of battery storage;

A 'Reference Case - without the 6 GW of gas committed during the period to 2030', made up of 14 GW of CCGT, 13.3 GW of OCGT capacity, 24.6 GW of utility PV, 75.8 GW of wind, and 4.9 GW of battery storage;

A 'Nuclear Case', where the model has been prevented from selecting gas to cater for 15.3 GW of new nuclear, alongside 28.8 GW of utility PV, 70.8 GW of wind, 1.9 GW of pumpe...

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Vehicles manufactured in India accounted for 70% of the 108 000 light vehicles under R300 000 sold in South Africa in 2023 through the dealer network, says market intelligence group Lightstone.

The light-vehicle market, which includes passenger and light commercial vehicles, was dominated by the hatchback, but also included small sedans, sub-one-tonne and one-tonne bakkies (single-cabs), panel vans, multipurpose vehicles and crossover/sports-utility vehicles.

Suzuki made up 43% of those Indian imports, followed by Renault (19%) and Toyota (17%).

South African-built vehicles accounted for 23% of the sub-R300 000 sales basket (Volkswagen and Nissan), with the balance of the vehicles coming from China, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, France and Poland.

Lightstone reports that vehicles from India are also expected to retain a significant percentage of their value at two years old.

The research group used its residual value forecasting tool to gauge how much of the original suggested retail price can be expected to be recuperated when or if one of these vehicles were to be resold in 2025.

Here the Indian-built vehicles once again come out on top in comparison with its competitors, with an expected retention rate of 86%.

This means that if a new vehicle cost R200 000 in 2023, one could expect it to retail for R172 000 in 2025, given average mileage/condition.

This is only marginally ahead of locally manufactured vehicles, which have a retention rate of 85.8%.

For some of the other countries contributing to this basket of vehicles (remembering that they only comprised a combined 7% of the market), Chinese-built vehicles are expected to retain 83.9% of their value, while South Korean-made vehicles are at 83.6%.

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The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has reiterated its aim of securing Cabinet approval for a new Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for electricity by the end of March after releasing a remodelled draft plan on Tuesday.

Dubbed IRP2024, the updated plan includes a reference case and scenarios that differ materially from those contained in the draft IRP2023 released in January, leading to some calls for more time for consultations.

A significant change in the new-look plan relates to the assumptions used for the energy availability factor (EAF) arising from Eskom's coal fleet, dramatically changing the outlook for security of supply for the immediate future.

The EAF base case is now assumed at between 66% and 72% for the period from 2024 to 2050, albeit with a declining coal contribution over the period as plants are decommissioned.

The planners have, however, included one scenario where the life of certain power stations is extended from 50 to 60 years to address a 15 GW "second cliff" from 2032 to 2042, with the first 5 GW cliff to arise in 2030 as units that were meant to have already been decommissioned in the 2020s are finally shut.

That delayed shutdown scenario also carries the highest total system cost, though, follow by a scenario where South Africa commits to 2.5 GW of nuclear.

Together with an expectation of only moderate demand growth of 1.5% to 2% over the long term, the revised EAF means that the draft IRP2023 scenario of ongoing loadshedding until at least 2027 is now avoided.

In the remodelled IRP, the risk of unserved energy is addressed through both the revised EAF and what the DMRE describes as 38.5 GW of "committed" capacity to be added by 2030.

38.5 GW COMMITTED

The department's Sonwabo Damba explained that the 38.5 GW pipeline included both public and private independent power producer capacity, as well as Eskom projects. It also assumes ongoing growth in rooftop solar PV capacity from 5.9 GW currently to 11.3 GW by 2030.

Also assumed to be committed is 6 GW of combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generation for which Ministerial determinations have been Gazetted, including Eskom's controversial 3 GW Richards Bay CCGT project.

The rest of the committed capacity included in the remodelled plan to 2030 is 7.8 GW of utility scale solar PV, 7.2 GW of wind, 4.2 GW of storage, 1.4 GW arising from the completion of the two remaining Kusile units and modest additional capacity arising from the risk-mitigation round, sans any powerships.

GAS & WIND FEATURE STRONGLY

While there is no second horizon in the new plan, the reference case for the period from 2031 to 2050 continues to include a significant gas-to-power allocation, as was the case in the IRP2023.

This includes 11.3 GW of CCGT, alongside 13.8 GW of open cycle gas turbine capacity. The gas allocation in the reference case is based on a gas price of $15/GJ and a constant rand/dollar exchange rate of R18.35.

A reference case with no committed CCGT has also been included, and continues to yield a high gas-to-power allocation to 2050, but at a lower overall cost.

The modest allocation to onshore wind outlined in the draft IRP2023 has been overturned in the remodelled edition, with a 76.4 GW allocation in the reference case; a development that the South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA) immediately welcomed.

"We are excited to see that wind energy will feature as the prevalent technology in South Africa's future energy mix.

"This allows the industry to respond with plans to build capacity in the long term to accelerate wind energy as part of the energy mix," SAWEA CEO Niveshen Govender said.

Solar PV, by contrast, forms a far smaller part of the mix outlined in the revamped reference case at 24.3 GW; a somewhat surprising development in light of the technology's rapidly falling costs, its...