South Africa's electricity transmission grid constraints pose challenges such as delaying projects and hampering electricity investment; however, the impact of this is fully understood by stakeholders, and therefore, interventions are under way to mitigate this, with collaboration pivotal to this process. This was indicated by speakers participating in Creamer Media's "Investing in South Africa's Electricity Transmission Grid" webinar on February 3.

The panel – facilitated by Brian Day, and featuring National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) Energy Market Services and the International Trader GM Andrew Etzinger, Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of South Africa (Seifsa) CEO Tafadzwa Chibanguza, ACTOM CEO Mervyn Naidoo, Department of Electricity and Energy (DEE) Independent Power Producer Office (IPPO) head Precious Mmabakwena Edward, Engie South Africa renewables and batteries MD Sanjeev Mungroo and Discovery Green head Andre Nepgen – unpacked this and other considerations in relation to the transmission grid constraints facing the country.

This was the second of a two-part Energy Outlook webinar series, featuring a practical discussion on the country's electricity transmission grid.

Mungroo explained that work to unbundle Eskom and engender a competitive electricity market aligns with international best practice, with this expected to unlock investment in infrastructure and decarbonisation.

Etzinger pointed out that, with considerable new generation to be added to the grid over the next few years, multifaceted work will need to be undertaken, which the NTCSA, alongside relevant stakeholders, being "up to the challenge".

He highlighted the need to bolster supply chains, focus on acquiring servitudes and expedite the procurement phase.

Naidoo indicated that there has not been sufficient investment into transmission infrastructure in the recent years, leading to grid constraints which is causing delays to some new electricity generation projects coming onstream, which could result in higher electricity tariffs in the future.

However, he highlighted that, with predictable demand coming through, there is an opportunity for the country to leverage its local manufacturing capacity, with a need to move towards a more strategic procurement programme.

He pointed out that while the country's manufacturing sector has declined considerably over the past 20 years, it still has the expertise required for a revival, and this requires deliberate policy that is aligned with demand, to force localisation and job creation, which would ultimately drive and accelerate GDP growth.

Chibanguza agreed, adding that the capacity exists and that underutilisation is the issue, and that the focus should be on redirecting investment towards rectifying this.

The webinar also touched on the recent uncertainties that have emerged around the unbundling of State-owned utility Eskom's grid assets, of a 'soft' unbundling, where the transmission assets stay inside Eskom, or a 'full' unbundling of the country's transmission assets into a Transmission System Operator outside of the utility.

Etzinger posited that both approaches are feasible, and that it is a policy matter that could be resolved going forward.

Nepgen acknowledged this as a "complex" issue, highlighting that investors would gain confidence knowing the full unbundling is to be done over time as originally envisaged, even if this takes longer than anticipated.

Etzinger informed that the NTCSA's updated Transmission Development Plan would be released later this year. Edward highlighted that this would, for the first time, be aligned closely with electricity generation planning.

Etzinger also mentioned that demand modelling of electricity demand during the day will also influence grid planning, to ensure that the integrity of the grid is protected, and that it is operable.

Edward mentioned that the IPP office will play a role in the months ahead in adjudicating Independent Transmissio...

Amid a national maintenance "crisis" and slow delivery against government's R1-trillion infrastructure commitment, Consulting Engineers South Africa (Cesa) believes it has now become urgent for engineers to occupy a "meaningful seat at the decision-making table".

In an address to the media, Cesa president Dr Vishal Haripersad argued that engineers remained "vastly underrepresented on government boards, statutory bodies, and strategic advisory forums".

The absence of engineering professionals on such structures, he added, raised serious questions about who was making decisions about infrastructure.

"Is it any surprise, then, that projects overrun, infrastructure fails, and public trust erodes?" he asked.

"This exclusion is not abstract. It has consequences, measured in unsafe bridges, roads, unreliable water systems, stalled projects, and billions lost to corruption."

Haripersad also bemoaned the fact that engineers were generally consulted only after projects failed.

"Why do we call on engineers to fix collapsing systems, but exclude them when strategies, budgets, and priorities are set?"

The underrepresentation of engineers was not only evident in decaying infrastructure, and most notably recently in the failure of municipalities to provide households and businesses with a stable supply of water, but also in the way engineering services were being priced and procured.

"Too often, engineers are perceived, and perhaps we have started to perceive ourselves, not as visionaries, but as implementers or as a commodity to be procured at the lowest price," he said, while also highlighting that many Cesa members were either not being paid on time or not being paid at all.

"Our nation, and indeed our profession, is at a crossroads.

"We must reclaim the role of our engineering expertise, and accountability in both the public and private sector space as the foundation of development."

Total new-vehicle sales in January, at 50 073 units, increased by 3 479 units, or 7.5%, compared with January last year, reports naamsa | The Automotive Business Council.

The industry body says the positive numbers, carried over from a buoyant 2025, show "a material improvement in underlying demand conditions, supported by moderating inflation, stable macroeconomic variables and a resilient consumer base".

The January new-passenger-car market, at 37 190 units, grew by 7.1% compared with the first month of last year.

The sale of new light commercial vehicles (bakkies, panel vans and mini-buses) expanded by 11%, to 10 996 units.

The business community, however, failed to share the optimism of car buyers as the new year got out of the starting blocks.

Medium truck sales contracted by 5.9%, to 542 units, while heavy truck and bus sales declined by 4.3%, to 1 345 units.

naamsa notes that truck fleet replacement decisions were closely linked to infrastructure investment trends, logistics performance, electricity costs and confidence in the broader investment outlook.

January new-vehicle export sales inched up 0.6%, to 24 568 units.

naamsa warns that the auto industry's export outlook is increasingly shaped by heightened protectionism across several of South Africa's key export markets.

"The proliferation of trade-restrictive measures and evolving industrial policies in advanced economies continue to test South Africa's automotive export competitiveness and market access conditions.

"Furthermore, deepening trade and industrial arrangements between Western and Eastern economies – including preferential trade agreements, regional content rules, and strategic supply chain realignments – are expected to pose upward risks to South Africa's vehicle export competitiveness and market share in certain traditional export destinations.

"These developments underscore the growing importance of cost competitiveness, and policy certainty in sustaining South Africa's export performance over the medium to long term."

naamsa adds that the local auto industry awaits "with pressing anticipation" the finalisation of government's review of its automotive policy framework – the Automotive Production and Development Programme – which it regards as "crucial for the sector's long-term competitiveness, investment attractiveness and resilience".

"In an increasingly complex and rapidly evolving global automotive environment – characterised by technological disruption, shifting trade alliances and accelerated energy transition pathways – a coherent, forward-looking policy framework remains critical to secure South Africa's position within global and regional automotive value chains."

The latest update on progress being made in implementing the structural reforms that have been prioritised under Operation Vulindlela has again identified Eskom's restructuring as a reform area "facing significant challenges" and where intervention is required.

Lagging restructuring progress at Eskom is one of only three reforms highlighted as facing difficulties, even though several others are listed as experiencing delays.

The other two reforms said to be facing significant challenges relate to the lack of progress in creating a sustainable electricity distribution industry, and a reform set up to clear the country's title-deeds backlog and to make the system more accessible and affordable.

Overall, however, the latest dashboard points to progress being made on 90% of the 30 reforms being overseen by Operation Vulindlela. These cover both the initial reform areas of electricity, logistics, water, and work and tourism visas, as well as the new areas of local government, spatial inequality, and digital transformation.

"So, the reforms in the electricity sector are likely to be pushed out slightly, because we have got to follow particular processes … but the commitment remains that we continue with the restructuring of the electricity sector and Eskom," Dicks said.

He also underlined the importance government was assigning to competition as a way of helping to tackle the steep rise in electricity costs, which was threatening various industries and placing serious strain on households.

The latest update also lists the steps that would be taken to support the ongoing reforms of Eskom and the sector in the coming six months, including developing a detailed implementation plan by March for the establishment of the Transmission System Operator (TSO) and implementing measures to ensure functional independence of the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) during the transition period.

This remedial step has been listed following the publication of a revised unbundling plan by Eskom Holdings and the Department of Electricity and Energy.

The plan states that the NTCSA would be retained as an Eskom Holdings subsidiary and continue to own the transmission assets, while an independent TSO would be created outside of Eskom to be the system and market operator.

This model has been criticised as being suboptimal in relation to levelling the playing field for all generators and ensuring non-discriminatory access to the grid.

There are also concerns that the failure to fully separate the transmission assets by positioning then in the TSO could slow the delivery of the new grid infrastructure needed to connect new generators at a pace needed to match the decommissioning of aged coal units.

"Eskom's capital structure is complex, in particular the significant levels of debt across syndicated facilities, bilateral facilities and bonds incurred from a broad array of creditors.

"Ensuring no breach is triggered on Eskom's financings or at the Treasury through the government guarantees provided under the Guarantee Framework Agreement, has always been a core consideration in Eskom's separation process," Marokane wrote.

He added that a separation scenario involving the immediate and full legal separation of transmission assets would require major financial intervention from the ultimate shareholder, the South African government, "for a likely scenario of cross default to honour existing lender commitments based on an analysis by our transaction advisers".

"This estimate is based on about R400-billion in debt settlement that would become due, and for the asset transfer outside of Eskom Holdings of about R100-billion being required to purchase the shares in the NTCSA," Marokane outlined.

He argued further that the practice of separating "who owns the grid" from "who controls and operates the grid" was not novel, and in compliance with South Africa's Electricity Regulation Amendment Act.

Besides the Eskom restructuring matter, the Operation V...

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses the big trade and industrial policy decisions that loom as key minerals processing and manufacturing sectors bend under the weight of high electricity tariffs and surging import competition.

Even if only incremental steps are taken, South Africa must continue to progress its electricity market liberalisation and reform agenda, such as launching the South Africa Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM), even if only involving a few organisations.

Further, while there were many competing challenges to be addressed to ensure progress, grid access was highlighted as a key element in the coming year by the experts who participated in the 'South Africa's Energy Outlook 2026 – Sustaining Reform Momentum' webinar hosted by Creamer Media on January 28.

The webinar was facilitated by law firm TGR Attorneys director Masedi Tlhong, with State-owned Eskom Group strategy and sustainability executive Nontokozo Hadebe, industry organisation South African Independent Power Producer Association chairperson Leoné Human, financial advisory firm Cresco associate director Olga Suchkova, renewable-energy trader Discovery Green head André Nepgen and industry organisation Energy Council of South Africa CEO James Mackay providing insights.

Collaboration between all private and public parties and stakeholders must continue, as it helped to provide the certainty required for projects to remain bankable, said Suchkova.

However, unlocking the grid was a critical element, with capacity urgently needed, she added.

A report Cresco undertook alongside financial services firm Standard Bank in 2025 looked at the impact on the grid that the ageing coal-powered fleet will have, and it highlighted the urgent need to add new generation capacity.

"Among the many challenges that have to be addressed at the same time, we need to ensure that new capacity is added to the grid," she said.

Mackay highlighted that financial close decisions for renewable-energy projects had peaked in 2024 and, although the country was in a robust construction phase, investment decision-making for renewable energy projects was declining.

Electricity demand has been declining for the past 12 years, including from 2025 to this year, and the reprieve from loadshedding could partly be attributed to this declining demand.

However, electricity demand, and use, must increase to support and enable more rapid GDP growth of between 3% and 5%, which is needed to stimulate growth and investment and create jobs.

"We need to get back up and running with the financial close process. Otherwise, by 2029, if demand bounces back by 16 TWh/y to 20 TWh/y, then we would be back in a loadshedding scenario.

"We are not seeing investment that is sustaining a robust renewables industry, and are not building enough new generation to deal with this shift [in electricity demand]."

Therefore, South Africa must urgently find short-term solutions to unlock grid capacity to add more generation sources, he said.

When asked what the most critical element needed for the emerging energy market to scale was, Nepgen concurred that grid access remained a challenge and that maintaining the momentum of transformation was currently more about execution than policy.

However, he highlighted a different consideration, namely that the majority of the country still did not have access to the wheeled electricity market.

There were many reasons for this, including that many municipalities have not developed processes for the wheeling of electricity.

He highlighted that, if access to wheeled electricity could be broadened to include municipalities, and large- and small-scale energy users, then demand for energy could flow from this, which would underpin supply and hence support investment in generation.

"The reforms must address accessibility while addressing fairness and sustainability at the same time," he said.

Human, meanwhile, noted that collaboration between public and private organisations could help to overcome the scale of the challenges, such as grid expansion to bolster access.

She emphasised that, given the distances and magnitude of the grid development needed, cooperation between public and private organisations was ...

Eskom has requested the energy regulator to approve an interim tariff of 87c/kWh in favour of Samancor Chrome and the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture as a temporary measure to sustain smelter operations while talks continued in relation to a longer-term solution aimed at further reducing the tariff to 62c/kWh.

The utility has also requested the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) to extend, by a further 12 months, waivers both companies secured last year in relation to take-or-pay obligations included in their negotiated pricing agreements (NPAs) with Eskom, which came into effect in 2024.

These stipulate that the ferrochrome producers should honour at least 70% of their contracted volumes; a condition that became unviable when production at several smelters was halted due to a lack of competitiveness.

Six-month waivers were approved by Nersa in August after Samancor and Glencore-Merafe declared hardship in relation to the provisions, but these are due to expire at the end of January.

Eskom Distribution's Gugulethu Dumakude acknowledged that the 87c/kWh tariff was not considered low enough for the ferrochrome producers to resume production at the levels assumed under the NPA, but indicated that it would help increase their consumption slightly from current levels.

She added that the interim tariff, together with the take-or-pay waiver, would also create breathing space for Eskom and the Department of Electricity and Energy to finalise a more sustainable tariff solution with the ferrochrome industry.

Ferroalloy Producers Association chairperson Nellis Bester confirmed that the industry required a tariff of 62c/kWh to be in a position to restart operations and avoid Section 189 retrenchment processes that had been initiated by various ferroalloy companies, including those outside of the ferrochrome sector.

He, thus, also argued that the final solution negotiated should not be confined to the ferrochrome sector and should be extended to companies smelting manganese, silicon and vanadium, all of which were in distress as a result of "compounded electricity price increases".

Bester noted that only four of South Africa's 48 ferrochrome smelter were currently operating, alongside only four of the 19 smelters in the other ferroalloy sectors.

"Today electricity accounts for 40% to 60% of total production cost in the ferroalloys sector.

"To sustain the sector, internationally competitive electricity pricing is essential," Bester said, while warning of widespread deindustrialisation and job losses in the absence of an electricity price that was supportive of local minerals beneficiation.

Transalloys GM Theo Morkel amplified this position by sharing a cost comparison indicating that, even under its own NPA with Eskom, electricity represented $634/t of the cost of producing silicon manganese; well above international benchmarks of between $147/t at the low end and $338/t at the higher end.

Hence, while supporting the immediate implementation of interim tariff relief for Samancor Chrome and the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture, Morkel said similar relief also needed to be extended to the rest of the ferroalloys sector, where closures and job losses also loomed.

Congress of South African Trade Unions trade and industrial coordinator Tengo Tengela also supported the application for relief, warning that some 300 000 direct and indirect jobs were at risk should the smelters be forced to close.

However, he called on Nersa to approve the application with the condition that there be a moratorium on further retrenchments by the companies.

No timeframe was given for Nersa's decision in relation to the application, but Eskom said an approval would be required by the end of February at the latest.

The South African government will have no choice but to impose antidumping duties on imported vehicles, says Trade, Industry and Competition Deputy Minister Zuko Godlimpi.

Godlimpi on Tuesday attended a briefing by his department and other auto industry roleplayers to the parliamentary Portfolio Committee of Trade, Industry and Competition on the implementation of the South African Automotive Masterplan.

When quizzed by portfolio members on the impact of rapidly rising imports of completely built-up (CBU) vehicles from India and China on the local automotive industry, he indicated that government would use duties to protect its manufacturing sector.

"We'll have no choice but to impose antidumping duties against our own allies.

"It is not an affront on the relationship as such, but it is to tactically defend your employment capability in South Africa and the capacity of your industry to weather the storms – the storms being the general disruption of the auto sector globally – until we are in a position to produce new energy vehicles (NEVs) competitively and maintain a degree of internal combustion engine (ICE) [production]."

International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa chief commissioner Ayabonga Cawe indicated that South Africa did "have room to manoeuvre" within its concessions to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

For CBU imported passenger vehicles, South Africa's bound rates were at 50%, with the current duties imposed under government's Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP) set at around 25%, he noted.

"On components, you also have room to manoeuvre, depending on the origin market, of anywhere between 10% and 12%."

A bound rate is the maximum legally committed tariff rate a WTO member country has agreed to impose on imports of a specific product.

South Africa was hard at work in its attempts to convince especially Chinese car makers to establish manufacturing operations in South Africa, added Godlimpi, noting that government wanted to add to the country's tally of seven assembly plants, instead of replacing or losing any existing plants.

The automotive industry, South Africa's biggest manufacturing sector, on Tuesday painted a rather bleak picture of its future should government not come to its assistance.

National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers (Naacam) CEO Renai Moothilal described government's auto sector support programme – the APDP – as "stuck in the mud".

In 2024, vehicle imports from China made up 22% of all vehicle imports to the country (up 368% from 2020), with 53% (up 135% from 2020) coming from India. (A number of well-known brands which are not from India assemble some of their models in that country, such as Toyota, Suzuki and Hyundai.)

Moothilal lamented the fact that European and American manufacturers had invested in local assembly capacity, but that China and India had failed to followed suit.

The rise in imports meant that local production levels had been stagnating below pre-Covid levels of around 600 000 units a year, with light vehicle production forecast to fall to around 560 000 units a year for this and the next year.

Also, the percentage of locally made parts in these vehicles had been declining by an average of 1.1% a year over the past 25 years, he added.

This and other factors had seen the implementation of short time, retrenchments and plant closures in the component manufacturing sector.

Over the last three years, Naacam had recorded 13 component company closures, said Moothilal, with more expected this year.

Among a raft of potential remedies, he believed that increasing duties on imported vehicles could be implemented immediately, as well as government embracing the preferential procurement of locally made parts and vehicles.

Small Local Market; Big Problems Toyota South Africa Motors president and CEO Andrew Kirby highlighted in his presentation that the South African domestic new-vehicle market continued to lack scale.

T...

A total of 332 generation and storage projects with a combined nameplate of 31.7 GW have either received budget quotes for grid connection in South Africa or have budget-quote applications pending for grid connection before 2030, a newly publicly available online portal shows.

Of that, nearly 24 GW is made up of 204 advanced projects (mostly in the form of variable renewables projects) that are seeking to be connected to the grid over the coming five years.

Produced by the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA), the 'Generation Customer Connection Data Dashboard' first became publicly available in December. It will be updated periodically, with the current edition offering a snapshot of the situation as of November 18, 2025.

The projects are not named, but the dashboard offers details of the technologies involved, with solar PV being the dominant technology seeking grid connection, as well as a geographical breakdown of the capacity, with the Free State leading with 4.2 GW across 31 projects.

The dashboard includes projects with budget quotes that are already operational (128 projects, with a capacity of 7.6 GW); those in execution (67 projects, with a capacity of 5.7 GW); projects that have been issued with budget quotes for grid connection (23 projects with a capacity of 2.8 GW); and those that have formally applied for budget quotes for grid connection (114 projects with a capacity of 15.4 GW).

Taken together, grid-connected projects that are operational, in execution or that have budget quotes issued for finalisation represent a combined capacity of 16.2 GW across 218 individual projects.

The NTCSA has purposely included only projects with budget quotes approved or pending. This because such projects are either operational or considered shovel-ready, with project originators making the financial commitment associated with applying for a quote to be grid connected only once their project has undergone a detailed engineering design and secured the other approvals needed to proceed to construction.

A separate South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey (SAREGS), which is published yearly, incorporates a far larger sample, including projects at a far less advanced stage. The 2025 edition of SAREGS indicated there was 220 GW of renewables project capacity at various stages of development, and those with budget-quote applications would represent the most advanced of such projects.

The NTCSA dashboard shows that budget quotes have been granted for operational projects that include the technologies of wind, solar PV, concentrated solar power, landfill gas, hydro, gas, biomass, and hybrid projects.

Those in execution or that have quotes issued, meanwhile, also include battery storage and nuclear, with the nuclear representing the additional capacity being introduced as part of Koeberg's life extension.

Solar PV is the dominant technology represented, with 15.2 GW of capacity across all categories, including 3 GW of operational capacity; a figure that excludes South Africa's estimated installed base of rooftop or behind-the-metre solar of some 7 GW.

The dashboard shows that there are grid-connection budget quotes being assessed for a further 68 solar PV projects with a combined capacity of 8.3 GW, mostly located in the Free State, Limpopo and North West provinces. The lion's share, or 5.2 GW, of that solar PV capacity could be introduced in 2027 should grid connections be secured.

Wind also features prominently, with a total of 79 projects with a combined capacity of 9.6 GW reflected across all categories, including 12 projects representing 2.3 GW with budget-quote applications submitted. Most of this wind capacity is either operating or under development in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape provinces.

A budget-quote application for 3 GW of gas-to-power, presumably linked to Eskom's proposed project in Richards Bay, in KwaZulu-Natal, is also reflected on the dashboard, as is 2.1 GW of battery storage across 20 projects...

Germany's special envoy for the Just Energy Transition Partnership with South Africa Rainer Baake says his country's ongoing commitment to the initiative is reflected by the fact that Germany has more than doubled its original financial commitment to €2.68-billion, from the initial 2021 pledge of €986-million.

He also reported that more than €1.4-billion had already been disbursed under the programme, which is scheduled to run to 2027.

Speaking in Pretoria at the tail-end of a visit to South Africa, Baake said the increase was a direct response to the strong demand for both the grant and concessional finance set aside to support projects and policies being implemented in line with the investment programme developed by the South African government.

Having held more than 40 meetings during his visit – mostly with private companies but also with government officials – he reported "huge appetite" for the funding, particularly from the renewable-energy sector.

Refusing to be drawn on recent comments by Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa that the price of the debt component was too high, Baake noted that the policy loans extended to government by KfW involved interest rates that were "considerably cheaper" than prevailing market rates.

Three such loans with a combined value of €1.3-billion had already been disbursed to the National Treasury upon the implementation of agreed energy sector reforms.

The first €300-million policy loan extended in November 2022, with a 20-year maturity and five-year grace period, carried a variable rate at the time of signing of 3%, which had since reduce to 2.8%; this against market rates of 8.9%.

The second €500-million loan approved in 2023 had a 15-year maturity and three-year grace period, and carried a fixed interest rate of 4.4%, which compared favourably to 12-year Eurobonds issued by the National Treasury in late 2023 that attracted rates of between 7.1% and 7.95%.

The third €500-million loan approved in July 2025, with a 13-year maturity and three-year grace period, had a 4.31% fixed interest rate, against dollar-denominated bonds issued by the National Treasury at the time bearing a 6.25% interest rate.

A similarly concessional €150-million loan had been approved in favour of the City of Cape Town in December 2024 for electricity infrastructure.

Baake reported that concessional loans worth €1.07-billion had also been approved for electricity, green hydrogen and skills-development projects, as well as to support municipalities, alongside grants totalling €125.6-million.

He acknowledged the headwinds that had developed internationally in relation to the energy transition, but said that Germany and the other remaining International Partner Group countries were committed to providing ongoing support to South Africa's Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP).

While the US had withdrawn, the remaining original partners of France, Germany, the UK and the European Union had since been joined by Denmark and the Netherlands in their support for the JET-IP.

He also acknowledged the challenge that loadshedding had posed to the implementation of the programme, as South Africa had not been able to retire coal plants in line with their original decommissioning schedule.

REFORM MOMENTUM

Nevertheless, for economic and commercial reasons, he said South Africa's transition was poised to continue as there was no contradiction between climate and economic goals, with renewables being the cheapest source of new electricity.

He also applauded the reform progress being made in South Africa's electricity sector to open it to private investment and competition, underlining the importance of the introduction later this year of a wholesale electricity market, which he hope would form the precursor for retail competition in future.

"Where I live right now, in Berlin, you could choose between 180 retail companies, and if you go to the smallest town in Germany, you will still have at least 20...