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The creation of a formal public-private platform to assess solutions to a pending "gas cliff" for industrial consumers in South Africa points to the fact that the issue is finally being taken seriously by all stakeholders, Industrial Gas Users Association of South Africa (IGUA-SA) executive director Jaco Human tells Engineering News.

The task team is being led by the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy and includes IGUA-SA and its members, as well as Eskom, the Central Energy Fund (CEF) and Sasol.

Speaking at the African Energy Indaba, Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe said the task team had been established "to develop a joint strategy that will ensure a seamless transition and business continuity, thus ameliorating potential job losses".

Mantashe also announced that the efforts would be supported by the finalisation of the Gas Master Plan, which would be presented to Cabinet in March, and various collaborative efforts being pursued with the Mozambique government, including on the proposed Matola liquefied natural gas (LNG) hub.

The task team convened twice last year, and a major meeting is planned for March 27, where short-, medium- and long-term solutions to the gas cliff will be discussed ahead of the currently designated "day zero" of June 2026; the point at which Sasol has indicated it will no longer supply industrial consumers.

Discussion at the meeting, Human says, will seek to find surefire solutions and options that will have to be implemented for an "orderly transition" during the likely "dead zone" that is currently set to arise between 2026 and the construction of the import and transfer infrastructure needed to facilitate the entry of LNG through a terminal that will be in place by the second quarter of 2027 at the earliest.

He tells Engineering News that IGUA-SA members will use the meeting to outline their considerations in the contracting of a combined 50 PJ/y of LNG that could be imported through a proposed terminal at Matola in Mozambique, which is considered to be the most advanced LNG project on the horizon.

IGUA-SA's members include large manufacturing enterprises such as ArcelorMittal, Ardagh Group, AVI, BrotherCisa, CBC Fasteners, Ceramic Industries, Coca-Cola, Corobrik, Hulamin, Highveld, Illovo, Ingrain, Mondi, Nampak, Norcros, Premier, PFG Building Glass, South32, South African Breweries, Rand Refinery and the Scaw Metals Group.

At the meeting, these consumers will indicate what the implications of higher LNG prices will be on the manufacturing sector and to what extent it could commit to volume offtake of LNG that is likely to be more than double the cost of domestically supplied gas by Sasol under the prevailing regulated gas methodology.

The maximum price gas methodology currently sets the price at R75/GJ before various pipeline tariffs are included to raise the price to about R110/GJ. At prevailing prices and exchange rates, LNG is likely to enter South Africa at closer to R250/GJ, which the domestic manufacturers would seek to pass on given the absence of cheaper energy alternatives in the near term.

However, they will also underline that demand of 50 PJ/y is insufficient to provide the commercial justification for the construction of an estimated $500-million LNG import terminal at Matola by Gigajoule and TotalEnergies.

Therefore, an appeal will be made for additional country commitments, mainly in the form of gas-to-power requirements, to raise yearly demand to between the 100 PJ and 140 PJ considered sufficient to ensure financial close by year-end and construction soon thereafter.

Here, IGUA-SA sees the role of both Eskom and CEF as potentially significant.

One proposal would be for Eskom to enter into a long-term power purchase agreement with a cross-bor...

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Various shocks have resulted in commodity price pressure and fiscal constraints globally, but sub-Saharan African countries, in particular, have been experiencing a "funding squeeze" as a result of these events, which necessitates a rethink about financing solutions and policy direction.

Speaking on the topic at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) on March 13, International Monetary Fund African development director Abebe Selassie said the funding shortfalls in the region have resulted in many countries, particularly South Africa, having high public debt levels.

He noted that, from the turn of the century until the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, most African countries had periods of high economic growth and much development progress, which reflected successful domestic reforms, a favourable external environment with much resource demand and ample financing resulting from capital flows to the region.

However, since a commodity cycle downturn in 2015, growth started decelerating in many resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. The period from 2020 to 2023 brought on a series of shocks, including the pandemic, the Ukraine war and other conflicts and financial markets tightening owing to aggressive policy.

These factors have exacerbated borrowing costs, reduced funding inflows and foreign direct investment, including in the emerging markets of sub-Saharan Africa.

However, after a difficult few years, a long-awaited rebound is on the horizon, with global economic conditions improving and inflation and rates easing, Selassie stated.

He cautioned, however, that these countries were not yet "out of the woods" as high debt levels remain.

Selassie elaborated that South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana are among the countries in the region that have returned to the international finance market, but given that sizeable uncertainties remain on China's internal restricting and prevailing challenges in sectors such as property, it remains to be seen what the knock-on impacts will be to emerging markets.

In South Africa's case, Selassie said, the country has historically been reliant on portfolio inflows from around the world, but this trend has reversed as of late, with more outflows occurring. He noted that domestic investment opportunities have not been attractive enough to keep capital flows in the country.

Additionally, both corporate and sovereign bond issuances have been declining, as foreign investor confidence has eroded.

It helps that South Africa has a large financial sector, since the government has had to increasingly rely on domestic borrowing. However, Selassie explained that South Africa's public debt situation was testament to the low economic growth in recent years.

"Prospects remain weak without resolute reforms to address growth impediments and fiscal sustainability concerns."

Selassie listed some of South Africa's strategic strengths as being the fact that a large chunk of its sovereign debt is in domestic currency, that it has a robust monetary policy framework and a flexible exchange rate.

Some of the weaknesses, on the other hand, include low economic growth, high and rising debt stock and the fact that current fiscal policy is not focused on debt stabilisation and fixing the primary balance.

Wits School of Economics and Finance associate Professor Ismail Fasanya agreed that sub-Saharan Africa's funding choices have deteriorated dramatically in the past year and that the acceleration of global monetary policy tightening has resulted in high interest rates worldwide and increased borrowing costs in sub-Saharan African countries.

He said tight financing conditions were likely to persist amid still high inflation and geopolitical fragmentation that were impacting on aid flows - for example, China is becoming more prudent with its lending.

Another contri...

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The Independent Power Producer Office (IPPO) has confirmed that the deadline for submissions under Bid Window Seven (BW7) of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme has been extended by a month to May 30 to accommodate both grid-connection quotes and a curtailment addendum published by Eskom.

The IPPO told Engineering News that a briefing note extending the timeline for application for grid cost estimate letters (CELs) to February 15 was issued at the end of January following requests from potential bidders at a bidders' conference that took place on January 17.

"As a result of the extension of the CEL application timeline, and following consultation with Eskom, the department has approved the consequent extension of the bid submission date to allow Eskom more time to process the CEL applications, and also taking into consideration further requests from bidders to allow more time for the preparation of their bid responses.

"After following the due processes, the CEL application date extension was communicated via a briefing note on 31 January 2024, and the bid submission extension via a briefing note on 8 March 2024," the IPPO explained in response to questions posed by Engineering News.

On whether the decision was influenced by the curtailment addendum to the Grid Capacity Connection Assessment (GCCA 2025), the office responded: "Yes, the extension of the CEL application timeline was influenced by the curtailment addendum that allows prospective bidders to bid projects in areas unlocked by the curtailment addendum."

Published in January following the launch of BW7 on December 14, the GCCA 2025 addendum states that 3 470 MW of additional grid capacity to connect wind generation will be made available by accepting a "reasonable share of no more than 10% of curtailment".

A total of 2 680 MW of this capacity is available in the Western Cape and 790 MW in the Eastern Cape.

The absence of such a framework during BW6 meant that none of the wind projects that had been vying for a 3 200 MW allocation advanced to preferred-bidder status.

Earlier, Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa confirmed that the capacity unlocked through curtailment was "immediately available, while the IPPO confirmed with Engineering News that the addendum enabled the department "to award wind projects within the Eastern and Western Cape in alignment with the provisions of the request for proposals".

Asked what the new BW7 deadline meant for the launch of BW8, under which another 5 000 MW of wind and solar will be allocated for procurement and which was proposed for release by the end of March, the IPPO said: "The official timelines for Bid Window 8 will be communicated as soon as governance approvals have been granted."

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After increasing somewhat in December, the Ctrack Transport and Freight Index (TFI) declined notably in January to a level of 119.3 - a drop of 2.1% compared with December's 121.9.

The extent of the weakness is almost similar to the pressure the sector experienced during the KwaZulu-Natal looting and flooding episodes, notes the index report.

The Ctrack TFI measures the performance of South Africa's sea freight, road freight, air cargo, rail sector, pipelines, and storage and handling sectors.

"The abrupt deterioration in January is indeed a stark reminder that the [transport and freight] sector still faces many challenges at the beginning of 2024," states the TFI report.

Some good news is that the index is still 5.1% above levels seen a year ago.

Compared with this period last year, four of the sectors managed to increase in January, with only the road and air freight sectors contracting.

In January five of the six sectors declined compared with December, however, with only sea freight expanding.

After tumbling in October and November, reflecting the inability of ports to handle cargo owing to a multiplicity of contributing factors, the sea-freight component of the index started to recover in December, and increased further by 2.8% in January.

The road freight sector, the biggest among the sectors, experienced multiple headwinds in the last few months of 2023, and recorded a slow start to the new year.

This sector declined by 1.2% in January compared with December, and slipped marginally below year-ago levels.

Heavy vehicle traffic on the N3 route (large and extra-large trucks) declined by 2.6% in January compared with a year earlier, while heavy vehicle traffic on the N4 route declined by 4.6%.

"Furthermore, total country road freight payload also declined by 4.4% year-on-year, confirming the broad-based slack in road freight in January - probably a reflection of the mediocre performance of the broader economy," states the TFI report.

The air freight sector declined by 3% on a monthly basis in January, reversing the recent positive blip, spurred on by the country's port troubles.

The number of unscheduled flights typically chartered for cargo purposes declined by a notable 18.3% in January.

A notable increase in the rail freight sub-sector recorded in October last year turned out to be short-lived, with this sector of the index sagging back to its mediocre levels since then, declining by 7.6% month-on-month in January.

The storage and handling sector of the Ctrack TFI declined by 1.7% on a monthly basis in January, but remains 15% above year-ago levels.

Lastly, the transport of liquid fuels via Transnet Pipelines declined by 2.1% in January compared with December, while it still tracks higher on a yearly basis, up 9.9%.

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Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says Eskom's new CEO, Dan Marokane, will offer a comprehensive outline of a revised generation recovery plan that will seek to integrate recommendations arising from various expert reports into the state of the coal power stations, including the hard-hitting Vgbe report commissioned by the National Treasury.

However, Eskom Generation's Eric Shunmagum also reported "some inaccuracies" with the report's findings, which required further engagement with the National Treasury before the recommendations could be integrated.

Without going into detail, Shunmagum indicated that the inaccuracies related to the report's assessment of the water treatment plants at Kusile and Medupi.

"The report is being embraced.

"However, there are some inaccuracies in the report, which we have formally responded to, and we will continue to work on with the National Treasury team."

The Vgbe-led consortium assessed 14 coal stations between March and May last year and its subsequent report, which was released only last month, attributed their poor performance to a "dysfunctional" and overly complex management system within Eskom Generation.

The report concluded that the solution lay in conducting operations and maintenance in line with industry standards and proposed a decentralisation of decision-making, including by providing power station managers with "full budget responsibility and accountability".

It also recommended the "immediate establishment of an interim team of independent experts (outside of Eskom) that reports directly to National Treasury" for a period of between one-and-a-half and two years.

Ramokgopa reported that the Ministry and Eskom had interrogated the report extensively, and he claimed that many of the issues raised were already being tackled under the prevailing generation recovery plan and through the National Energy Crisis Committee.

He also stressed that the Vgbe report was but one report that was being considered by Marokane and Eskom as part of the review of the 'Generation Operational Recovery Plan'.

The other assessments being considered included reports by WSP and the World Bank, as well as a Ministerial Diagnostic report.

When Marokane officially assumed the role of CEO on March 1, chairperson Mteto Nyati indicated that the review of the Generation Operational Recovery Plan had been set as a priority for his first 100 days.

On whether independent experts will be appointed as recommended, Ramakgopa said it would be a decision for Eskom to make as it was a "management decision".

However, he noted that various experts had already been seconded to support Eskom under the partnership with Business for South Africa, with a particular focus on the six power stations of Duvha, Kendal, Kusile, Majuba, Matla and Tutuka.

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Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa and the Independent Power Producer Office (IPPO) have both confirmed that the curtailment framework outlined by Eskom in January is immediately available to wind IPPs preparing to bid under Bid Window Seven (BW7) of South Africa's public renewables procurement programme, launched in December.

Published as an addendum to the latest Generation Connection Capacity Assessment (GCCA 2025), the framework states that 3 470 MW of additional grid capacity to connect wind generation will be made available by accepting a "reasonable share of no more than 10% of curtailment".

Curtailment is defined in the document as the controlled reduction of the output of renewable energy plants as a system operator response to transmission capacity constraints.

It adds that 2 680 MW of this capacity is available in the Western Cape and 790 MW in the Eastern Cape - provinces that together with the Northern Cape were shown in the original GCCA as having no remaining grid capacity to connect new generation.

The absence of a curtailment framework during BW6 meant that none of the wind projects that had been vying for a 3 200 MW allocation advanced to preferred-bidder status.

In his latest briefing on the implementation of the Energy Action Plan, Ramokgopa said that Eskom's January statement indicated that the capacity was "immediately available".

Likewise, the IPPO told Engineering News that, while it was not able to comment in detail given that a procurement process was under way, the release of the GCCA 2025 addendum had unlocked additional grid capacity for wind projects.

"This enables the department to award wind projects within the Eastern and Western Cape in alignment with the provisions of the request for proposals."

The confirmation is also in line with a statement made following the most recent meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa and his Cabinet members with senior business leaders, in which it was stated that Eskom and the National Energy Regulator of South Africa should ensure that grid capacity is available for the full allocation outlined in BW7.

Government is seeking to procure 3 200 MW of wind and 1 800 MW of solar photovoltaic capacity through the round.

Meanwhile, Ramokgopa reported that he would meet with the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) board on March 12 to discuss options for private sector participation in the roll-out of grid capacity in advance of the schedule outlined in the current Transmission Development Plan (TDP).

At the meeting, the work that had been done regarding a possible role for the private financing, construction and operation of additional grid infrastructure would be canvassed with the NTCSA, which had overall responsibility for grid and system operations.

Ramokgopa said that given Eskom's balance sheet pressures and the "ticket size" of the projects, external financing could help play a role in accelerating the TDP, particularly in the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, and Western Cape.

Eskom has indicated that it has funding available for the first three years of the TDP, during which only 1 675 km of line is planned for construction, leaving the lion's share of 14 218 km proposed for construction by 2032 to be implemented in the latter five years.

He said the Ministry would share its proposals with the NTCSA having studied various options from peer countries, which had been tailored to South Africa's conditions.

The idea was then for the NTCSA to champion the concept of private financing in a way that met its needs and the needs of the system.

"I'm confident there will be symmetry in relation to the need for us to access that private financing, but it's now about how you do it."

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Business Unity South Africa president Mxolisi Mgojo reports that the collaboration between business and government to turn around the performance of Transnet could result in the struggling State-owned freight logistics group moving significantly more volumes in the year to March than was guided in earlier forecasts.

In a briefing this week following the most recent meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa, his Cabinet and the senior business leaders who have signed up to support government in tackling the triple crises in electricity, logistics and crime, Mgojo reported that there had been "remarkable progress" in recent months.

Transnet, he reported, was now forecasting volumes of greater than 151-million tons for the 2023/24 financial year, rather than the 142-million tons outlined in October.

The former Exxaro CEO attributed the improvement to the culture change that had accompanied the appointment of interim leadership late last year at both Transnet and Transnet Freight Rail (TFR), with two of those executives, Michelle Phillips and Russell Baatjies, having recently been confirmed as the permanent CEOs of Transnet and TFR respectively.

"There has been a remarkable, and I will say a really remarkable, improvement in what we've been able to achieve," Mgojo, who is playing a central role on behalf of business in the National Logistics Crisis Committee (NLCC), asserted.

Nevertheless, the logistics crisis remained a "critical risk to the economy", with mining stockpiles having increased to "unsustainable levels" and coal exports at their lowest levels in 30 years.

Likewise, truck congestion at certain borders, which at times resulted in queues of up to 10 km, was negatively affecting various communities and road infrastructure, while the agriculture sector remained deeply concerned about persistent challenges at key export ports, such as Cape Town.

Mgojo reported that the NLCC had agree on six priority actions to tackle the crisis, including ongoing delivery on the Transnet Recovery Plan, with a focus on implementing operational excellence centres and the secondment of technical resources to the utility.

"We have also, as business, brought in a lot of other private sector technical expertise into the fold and these experts have been seconded to work within Transnet and they have primarily been brought in to provide critical support to senior executives."

Many of the secondees are former senior Transnet executives themselves, and they have been assisting with efforts to reduce the backlog of ships at anchorage at ports such as Durban and Cape Town, as well as with the spares constraints that have been afflicting rail operations on key rail corridors, including coal.

The other five NLCC priorities are:

Advancing the Economic Regulation of Transport Bill to implementation, with Mgojo optimistic that Ramaphosa will sign off soon on the legislation passed by Parliament on February 29;

Improving security on key corridors transporting coal and chrome;

Implementing the Freight Logistics Roadmap, which includes plans for third-party access to the rail network and the splitting of TFR into the Transnet Rail Infrastructure Manager and the Transnet Freight Rail Operating Company;

Expediting the Private Sector Participation framework across ports and rail; and

Addressing the remaining procurement issues, relating largely to critical spares.

Despite this progress, however, Mgojo stressed that the continued poor operational performance and inefficiencies at Transnet continued to cost the economy R1-billion a day, which he said underlined the urgency of both the recovery plan and the associated reforms.

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses the latest meeting held between senior business leaders and President Cyril Ramaphosa and his Cabinet; the feedback provided on efforts to tackle loadshedding; and a report back on the Transnet Recovery Plan and the reforms in the logistics sector.

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Following its recent success in securing new public and private power purchase agreements, Pele Green Energy (PGE) is already having to consider additional funding options beyond the pioneering R2.5-billion Sithala facility concluded in November with Nedbank, Norfund and the Industrial Development Corporation.

The facility has, for the first time, provided the black-owned independent power producer (IPP) with a consolidated funding platform designed to enable a competitive expansion in its operating portfolio from about 1 GW to 5 GW by 2027, as well as the capital needed to develop a project pipeline. It has also enabled PGE to refinance its existing group funding with a platform facility at the holding company level.

MD Gqi Raoleka tells Engineering News that the innovative funding structure represents a material advance on PGE's previous capital-raising frameworks, which involved raising funds on a project-by-project basis.

This earlier model, he says, was not only onerous and time consuming but also uncompetitively priced, particularly for an entity seeking to evolve into a lead developer of projects that it both owns and operates.

Raoleka insists that PGE continues to value its partnerships with leading European, and Middle Eastern IPPs and credits South Africa's black economic-empowerment policies for enabling such partnerships.

However, 15 years after its founding by a group of young black professionals, PGE is now intent on continuing its evolution from its initial position of junior partner to that of either co-sponsor or majority owner.

CFO Matthew Wainwright says the Sithala structure is aligned with that ambition and has already enabled it to play a more assertive and competitive role in recent projects.

PGE has, for instance, taken "near pari-passu" equity positions alongside ENGIE in two solar photovoltaic projects awarded under the fifth bid window of government's renewables procurement programme, namely the 75 MW apiece Grootspruit and Graspan projects, which achieved financial close in late 2023.

In addition, the facility has enabled PGE to secure a 20% equity position in each of the three Koruson 2 cluster of wind and solar projects being built by Envusa Energy, which is jointly owned by Anglo American and EDF Renewables. The projects have a combined capacity of 520 MW.

Raoleka is also optimistic that Sithala will enable it to conclude its first PGE-led projects in the coming months with a private offtaker, which would represent a "major milestone" for the entity.

"This groundbreaking facility provides PGE with a significant capital base that has been structured to align our long-term interests with our partners and enables PGE to play a meaningful role in the delivery of the energy transition as a fully-fledged South African IPP," Wainwright explains.

The size of these recent successes, however, has resulted in drawdowns against the facility that are well in advance of initial expectations and Raoleka indicates that PGE is about two years ahead of its goals.

There is, thus, a strong likelihood that Sithala will have to be enlarged to match the scale of public and private opportunities that are arising across various technologies; a scenario catered for under the arrangement.

Ultimately, though, even this scalable funding solution is likely to fall short as PGE moves to accelerate towards its stated goal of being a fully-fledged South African IPP.

"I stress South African, as we will need about R1-billion a year to sustain our growth, and that will require participation in capital markets that is broader than our current black shareholders and the building of a truly South African company.

"Alternatively, we would have to curtail our growth, which is not what we desire nor is it what the country requires," Raoleka concludes.

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Government and business have set a goal of increasing South Africa's electricity generation capacity by 10.5 GW by the end of 2025 as part of ongoing collaborative efforts to tackle growth-sapping power disruptions and reduce the intensity and almost daily frequency of loadshedding by year-end.

In a briefing held following the latest meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa's Cabinet and those senior business leaders who have committed to supporting government in overcoming its loadshedding, logistics and crime crises, the Presidency's Rudi Dicks said the capacity could arise from multiple sources, including by recovering capacity from Eskom's unreliable coal fleet.

The lion's share, however, would arise from ongoing solar rooftop investment, public procurement and utility-scale projects being pursued by various companies on the back of a reform allowing distributed plants of any size to proceed without a licence, even when using the grid to wheel electricity.

Eskom's Generation Recovery Plan would focus on operational improvements at Matla, Majuba, Kendal and Tutuka, as well as within Rotek, and would seek to build on recent partnership successes with business at Kusile, Kriel and Matla.

However, Dicks said it would also hinge on securing "many more skilled resources" over and above the support that had been provided so far by the 75 individuals who had already been assigned to assist on a pro bono basis.

While some services would continue to be delivered on that basis, work was also under way by Eskom, business and the National Treasury on a proposed mutual cooperation agreement (MCA) to enable Eskom to "procure skilled experts, strategic parts and ringfenced projects".

Business for South Africa's Martin Kingston noted that such an agreement was already in place between Transnet and the Richards Bay Coal Terminal, which he described as a "cost-recovery mechanism".

Dicks said the MCA sought to formalise the partnership between Eskom and the private sector, while stressing that it would be seeking a deal that not only complied with legislation and supply-chain management regulations but still allowed for some "pro bono work to continue".

"Pro-bono support has already been provided but this does not cover technical engineering expertise to address both the main and auxiliary plant problems," Dicks added.

Kingston, meanwhile, offered an assurance that the MCA with Eskom would be transparent and structured to either remove or manage any potential conflicts of interest.

The proposed MCA follows the recent release of a report commissioned by the National Treasury in 2023 into the state of the Eskom coal power stations, in which the Vgbe-led report authors described the State-owned utility's governance structure and processes as "dysfunctional".

They made several recommendations for improving the management structure, including the establishment of an interim team of independent experts, outside of Eskom and reporting to the National Treasury, whose members would be situated at the stations to follow up key risk areas and intervene if required.

Dicks said the Vgbe report had confirmed the National Energy Crisis Committee's (Necom's) own analysis of the challenges, as well as what the required focus to ensure improved plant performance was.

GRID FOR UPCOMING BID WINDOW?

Outside of Eskom, business and government also agreed that actions should be taken to support ongoing private investment at a rooftop and utility scale, as well as ensure the success of the public procurement bid windows launched for renewables, gas-to-power and battery storage.

Together, these private generation investments were expected to provide the majority of the additional 10.5 GW of capacity to be added or recovered by the end of 2025.

It was also agreed that Eskom and the National Energy Regulator of...