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Africa faces economic headwinds this year, but some of the continent's brightest sparks are shading it in a more hopeful light.

Six of the top-10 performing economies in the world are forecast to come from Sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Their smaller size won't be enough to make up for less-stellar performances by South Africa and Nigeria, which together account for two-fifths of Africa's $2 trillion economy. But collectively, they are helping to make a difference in a region that remains severely challenged by poverty and inequality.

"Sub-Saharan Africa's growth prospects are brightening," said Bloomberg Africa Economist Yvonne Mhango. "Eight of the region's top-10 biggest economies - which together account for another 40% of regional GDP - will grow by a strong 5% on average."

These include Ivory Coast at 6.6% and Tanzania at 6.1%. The two countries have done a good job of diversifying their economies and attracting foreign investment.

As a result, the IMF sees regional growth improving moderately to 4% in 2024 from 3.3% in 2023. And while the two heavyweights aren't likely to deliver quicker output in the near term, both Nigeria and South Africa are pursuing reforms that may yield benefits over time.

The IMF sees growth in Nigeria picking up to about 3% this year and next, while South Africa is projected to expand by 1.8% and 1.6% over the two years, up from a tepid 0.9% in 2023.

'BIG PICTURE'

"Big picture Africa, the external environment is difficult," said Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank. "But reforms matter, and this will be the crux of the growth turnaround that we expect in both South Africa and Nigeria."

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has embarked on aggressive measures to relax the country's foreign-exchange regime and remove costly fuel subsidies.

South Africa, hobbled by an energy crisis, is finally making tentative progress on boosting electricity supply, which is expected to continue.

"The important point for South Africa is that we've probably reached the turning point," said Khan. "The years ahead should deliver faster growth. And that is under-appreciated."

That's despite potential uncertainty before elections this year. The vote, likely to be held in April or May, may cost the ruling African National Congress its absolute parliamentary majority. But it's expected to remain the largest party in government and the ballot won't have a major impact on policy, she said.

NEAR-TERM CAUTION

Still, analysts remain cautious on Africa's outlook in the immediate future. The pick-up in growth is coming from a low base after the setbacks suffered by the region during the pandemic, straining public finances and leaving many countries struggling with heavy debt burdens.

Those have already triggered defaults in Ghana, Zambia and Ethiopia, with the IMF warning other nations remain at risk, and access to foreign capital markets is effectively closed.

Moody's Investors Service has a negative outlook on the credit of African sovereigns because of elevated debt-refinancing risks, and because it expects slower growth in China to dampen demand for the region's commodity exports.

Aurelien Mali, senior credit officer at Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, notes that Africa's ratio of debt to gross domestic product has risen to 60% on average. That's back up to the crisis levels of the early 2000s that galvanized debt forgiveness for the poorest nations.

"Many of these countries have been running twin deficits - fiscal deficits and current-account deficits - in the post-Covid period," he said. "They need to access external funding at a moment when you have a wall of maturities coming due."

Moody's estimates about $5-billion of eurobonds will come due in 2024 in Sub-Saharan Africa, with more than $6-billion in 2025. That doesn't count debts coming due to bilateral creditors like China or multilateral lenders including the IMF and the World Bank...

The inaugural board of directors of the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA), which was announced by the Eskom board on Tuesday, will be chaired by Priscillah Mabelane, who is also the executive VP of Sasol's energy business.

The long-awaited appointment represents a significant milestone in the legal separation of Eskom into three separate entities of generation, distribution and transmission, as outlined in the Department of Public Enterprises' 2019 'Roadmap for Eskom in a reformed electricity supply industry'.

NTCSA's separation has been prioritised given the importance of having an independent transmission entity for levelling the playing field in an electricity supply industry that is transitioning to include multiple generators rather than relying primarily on Eskom as a vertically integrated monopoly.

The NTCSA is already registered as a business and last year received approval for the three requisite licences from the National Energy Regulator of South Africa.

"The appointment of the NTCSA board takes Eskom a step closer to unlocking the potential that comes with the planned transformation of the electricity industry," Eskom chairperson Mteto Nyati said in a statement, while thanking the incoming NTCSA board members for raising "their hands to guide Eskom into a future where South Africans have reliable, affordable and environmentally friendly" electricity supply.

At Sasol, Mabelane is playing a central role in the JSE-listed group's own 'Just Energy Transition' away from its current reliance on coal to produce transportation fuels and various chemicals, with Sasol having outlined a vision for unlock South Africa's potential to be a global green hydrogen and derivatives producer.

She is a qualified Chartered Accountant, and the Eskom statement adds that she has experience in leadership, corporate finance, strategy, energy and risk.

"She is responsible for upstream and downstream gas activities as well as distribution, marketing and sales of liquid fuels in Southern Africa. She is leading strategy formulation for the Energy Business which will support and steer a stakeholder-centric approach in spurring sustainable growth," the statement reads.

The 11 members of the board were identified as including:

Dr Brian Armstrong, who has been appointed as the lead independent director, and who has 30 years of top-level management experience in the telecommunications, information technology, research and development and systems engineering sectors, both in South Africa and abroad, including as COO and chief commercial officer of Telkom;

Lungile Mashele, an energy economist and banker with more than 12 years of energy industry experience in Africa, including in her current position as an energy and infrastructure specialist at the Public Investment Corporation;

Carmen Le Grange, a qualified Chartered Accountant with 22 years of experience, including being a former Denel CFO;

Anu Sing, who has more than 25 years of experience at board and executive level, including five years with the MTN Group;

Nkosinathi Solomon, who holds an MBA degree and a BSc in Chemical Engineering, and is described as having a good understanding of the energy landscape, as well as experience in leading transforming organisations;

Professor Mark Swilling, who ended a stint as Development Bank of Southern Africa chair in September 2023, and who is the co-director of the Centre for Sustainability Transitions at Stellenbosch University;

Auke Lontm who, with 25 years of industry experience, is described as being highly recognised internationally in the transmission system operator environment, having been CEO of Norway's Statnett;

Professor Francis Petersen, who is the Rector and Vice Chancellor of the University of the Free State in South Africa and previous executive head of strategy at Anglo American Platinum;

Sedzani Mudau, who has 19 years of business experience and is the executive director of Favest Advisory, board chairperson at Sente...

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says the current plan for rolling out grid infrastructure, particularly in the coming three years, is insufficient to end loadshedding and should, thus, be accelerated with the support of private investment, as well as funding from the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP).

In his inaugural briefing for 2024, Ramokgopa highlighted that, following a recent memorandum of understanding clarifying his powers relative to those of Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan, he had been given responsibility for ensuring that transmission-related constraints were addressed.

He had also been given authority to issue requests for information and proposal for the financing of new transmission lines and to develop and agree on financing models with National Treasury and the Presidency.

Under the prevailing Transmission Development Plan, only 1 675 km of line is planned for construction by 2027, leaving the lion's share of 14 218 km proposed for construction under the plan to be deployed from 2028 to 2032.

The backend nature of the investment profile has been heavily criticised by local industry, which has warned that it will be unable to make the manufacturing and skills investments required to participate in the later steep rise in grid expenditure.

Ramokgopa suggested that at least 6 000 km of new lines would be required in the coming three years but acknowledged that Eskom's balance sheet was insufficient to cater for such investment.

The scenario was also unlikely to change once the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA), which was currently being separated from the vertically integrated utility, was established.

"I'm of the opinion that you need to do significantly more than the [1 675 km over the coming three years], I think we need to be closer to 6 000 km.

"Of course, the Eskom balance sheet does not allow for that and that's why the Minister [of Electricity] is expected to work out a solution on how best to finance that, without relinquishing State ownership of the grid, but tapping into private sector liquidity."

Cabinet had not yet approved a specific plan allowing for the private sector to participate in the building and operation of new grid infrastructure, but Ramokgopa expressed optimism that such a framework would be approved soon.

He also stressed that the financing models being considered would seek to ensure that the national finances were not placed under undue strain in future and that the transmission assets were ultimately transferred to the NTCSA.

Once the financing model was approved, Ramokgopa indicated that the intention was to pursue grid procurement through a "dedicated body", most probably a development finance institution, which would be less bureaucratically encumbered than would be the case should such contracting be performed by a government department.

Lessons would be drawn from the model used for the procurement of new generating capacity and Ramokgopa reported he was in talks with both the Development Bank of Southern Africa and the Industrial Development Corporation about their possible involvement.

The Minister also saw a specific role for the funding committed by France, Germany, the European Union, the UK and the US under the JET-IP to support an acceleration in grid investment.

In late 2023, South Africa published its JET-IP implementation plan amid news of fresh funding flows and confirmation that the commitments had been expanded to $9.3-billion, from an initial $8.5-billion, after the Netherlands and Denmark added their support to the plan.

Ramokgopa indicated that, once he returned from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, there would be a formal engagement on how the JET-IP funding could be unlocked to support the financing of new transmission infrastructure.

"Now that the road has been paved, and we know what the responsibility of the Ministry is, we can move with full speed to [seek to access those funds], of co...

Business Unity South Africa (Busa) will approach the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) to secure the technoeconomic information that has been used to inform the assumptions contained in the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which was released for public comment on January 4 absent an associated data book.

The head of Busa's energy and environment desk, Happy Khambule, tells Engineering News that the document is "thin on detail" and that, without securing the additional data, it will be impossible to assess its credibility, including the significant changes to the generation technology allocations for the period from 2024 to 2030 when compared with the prevailing IRP 2019.

The most significant change relates to the allocation for new gas-to-power, which has been increased from the 3 000 MW outlined in the IRP 2019 to 7 220 MW, raising the installed base of gas and diesel generation to 11 050 MW in 2030, up from the 6 380 MW assumed in the current plan.

The IRP 2023 also bucks global trends towards higher renewable energy investment by planning for about 30% less utility-scale solar photovoltaic and about 55% less utility-scale wind investment by 2030 than was planned for in IRP 2019.

Busa is also concerned, however, that the draft plan continues to include loadshedding until 2027, unless the energy availability factor (EAF) of the Eskom coal fleet recovers dramatically from about 50% currently to between 66% and 69%.

While this represents a moderation in the EAF relative to the 70% assumption in the IRP 2019, it would nevertheless require an extremely sharp turnaround in the performance of the aged and under-maintained fleet, which has become extremely unpredictable and unreliable.

Khambule says including loadshedding in the IRP is not only unprecedented, as it implies that even the plan itself is premised on failing to meet anticipated demand, but he adds that the 2027 date also contradicts the ambitions set by government and business in the National Energy Crisis Committee to address loadshedding by the end of 2024.

"As it stands, the draft IRP does not come across as a well thought-through plan that offers a holistic picture of the electricity supply industry and the changes that are taking place technologically, as well as structurally, as outlined in the Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill that is currently before Parliament," Khambule states.

This lack of holism is also reflected in the document's demand assumptions, which fail to take account of the anticipated growing role for electricity in industry and the transport sectors, either directly or through the production of green hydrogen.

"These misalignments imply that there is no shared understanding within government about how the electricity crisis should be tackled and by when it will be resolved.

"There also appears to be a lack of inter-government collaboration on the future role of electricity in the economy as a whole."

Busa is also concerned about the document's seemingly contradictory stance regarding the role of the private sector, with much of the plan reliant on private investment but with that potential underrepresented both with its yearly allocation for distributed generation of only 900 MW and the curtailment of wind and solar, where most private investor interest lies.

The immediate priority for Busa, however, is to secure the information required to enable it to make informed written comments by the deadline, which has been set as being February 23.

"Initially we were just happy that the document was finally released, as it has been delayed for some months.

"However, we soon realised how scant the details were and we have, thus, reached out to government to request more information," Khambule reports, noting that the technical information associated with IRP 2019 was also shared by the department only after pressure from civil society.

However, Busa also believes that this participation should not be confined to written comment...

The South African government has released three requests for proposals (RFPs) for new electricity generation and storage capacity, including 5 000 MW of new wind and solar, 2 000 MW of gas-to-power and 615 MW/2 460 MWh of battery storage.

Under the much anticipated and delayed seventh bid window (BW7) of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) is seeking bids by April 30 for the development of 3 200 MW of wind and 1 800 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV).

The inaugural Gas Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (GIPPPP), meanwhile, has been launched on a site-agnostic basis, with the DMRE indicating that a separate procurement process will be held for 1 000 MW of capacity to be developed near to the Port of Ngqura, in the Eastern Cape.

A closing date for bid submissions has been set as August 30 for the GIPPPP, which is targeting land-based electricity generation facilities.

The DMRE is aiming to announce preferred bidders three months after the bid submission deadline and states that financial close will follow about four months after the preferred-bidder announcement.

The second bidding round for the Battery Energy Storage Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (BESIPPPP), is seeking facilities with a minimum size of 77 MW and a maximum size of 153 MW, all with four hours storage.

The procurement round calls for eight storage facilities within close proximity to Eskom-selected transmission substations in the 'Northwest Supply Area', namely: Mercury, Carmel, Hermes, Ngwedi, Midas, Marang and Bighorn substations.

The BESIPPPP stipulates a minimum availability of 95% over 8 760 hours per contracted year and the facilities will be expected to provide instantaneous, regulating and supplementary reserves.

On November 30, the DMRE announced the names of the preferred bidders arising from the first BESIPPPP round and also reported that it was in negotiations for a project at a fifth site.

The four installations are all earmarked for development in the Northern Cape and will have a combined capacity of 360 MW/1 440 MWh, as well as a combined investment value of R10-billion.

The three RFPs are the first to be initiated following the partial failure of REIPPPP BW6, during which only preferred bidders for a 1 000 MW solar PV allocation were selected from a round that expected to procure 4 200 MW.

This, after Eskom indicated that the grid connection capacity that formed the basis for 23 wind bids vying for a 3 200 MW allocation had been absorbed by independent power producers pursuing private power purchase agreements.

The development led to Eskom adopting new interim rules for the issuance of grid connection cost estimate letters and budget quotes from the 'first come, first served' model that had been used previously to a so-called 'first ready, first served' approach, and to flag that it intended moving to a gated process in future.

In a statement confirming the three tenders, the DMRE urged prospective bidders to take note of the available grid capacity in the different areas of supply as indicated in the 2025 Generation Connection Capacity Assessment (GCCA), which was published by Eskom in late October.

No mention was made of a proposed addendum to the GCCA outlining a curtailment framework, which could open up grid capacity in those areas that are currently shown in the GCCA as having no further capacity to evacuate new electricity.

As had become the norm with government's approach to IPP bids, prospective bidders would be required to pay a non-refundable fee of R25 000 for access to the RFP for each project submission.

The department reported that it would convene Bidders' Conferences in respect of the three bid windows, which would be hosted on an e-platform on January 17 and 18, to provide more information on the qualifying criteria and bid submission expectations.

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has released the much-anticipated and delayed seventh bid window (BW7) of Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), through which it will be seeking bids for the development of 3 200 MW of wind and 1 800 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV).

In a statement, the department notes that BW7 was the first bidding round launched in line with the Ministerial Determination published by Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe in December 2022. The determination outlined an intention to procure 14 771 MW of new generation and storage capacity, including 3 940 MW of solar PV, 9 600 MW of wind and 1 231 MW of battery energy storage.

The BW7 request for proposals (RFP) for 5 000 MW follows the partial failure of BW6, during which only preferred bidders for a 1 000 MW solar PV allocation were selected, after Eskom indicated that the grid connection capacity that formed the basis for 23 wind bids vying for a 3 200 MW allocation had been absorbed by independent power producers pursuing private power purchase agreements (PPAs).

The development led to Eskom adopting new interim rules for the issuance of grid connection cost estimate letters (CELs) and budget quotes from the 'first come, first served' model that had been used previously to a so-called 'first ready, first served', and to flag that it intended moving to a gated process in future.

In late October, Eskom also released an updated Generation Connection Capacity Assessment (GCCA) and signalled that it would add an amendment outlining its curtailment framework, which could unlock grid capacity in the areas currently identified in the GCCA as having zero grid-connection capacity.

In its statement confirming the launch of BW7, the DMRE said bidders should note the available areas of supply in the GCCA, which was available on the Eskom website, but made no reference to the curtailment framework.

"To ensure that bidders receive their CELs in time for bid submission, the cut-off date for bidders to apply for a CEL is 90 days prior to the bid submission date.

"This is to ensure Eskom has sufficient time to process all CEL applications received (up to 90 days)."

A bid submission date of April 30, 2024, has been set, along with a January 31 deadline for the application for CELs.

The DMRE also said that, given South Africa's prevailing "energy challenges", which had resulted in 2023 being the worst for loadshedding the country has faced, the qualification criteria had been developed to promote the submission of "fully developed" projects that were able to be constructed and connected no later than 24 months after achieving commercial close.

"In addition to the provision of energy output, this REIPPPP covers the provision of and payment for ancillary services, which support the reliable and secure operation of the transmission system by the buyer, acting through its system operator," the statement adds.

A Bidders' Conference has been scheduled for January 17 to "provide more information on the functionality, evaluation requirement criteria, and bid submission expectations".

As is the norm with REIPPPP bids, prospective bidders are required to pay a non-refundable fee of R25 000 to have access to the RFP and to submit one project at the bid submission date. "If the prospective bidder intends to submit more than one project, they will need to make an additional payment of R25 000 net of all charges per additional project."

The DMRE also indicated that the evaluation of the bids was expected to endure for three months following the submission of bids on April 30, with a financial close "long stop date of one month post".

However, the REIPPPP has been prone to delays following its resumption in 2021 and after having been disrupted for seven years owing to a refusal by Eskom leadership, from 2015, to enter into new PPAs on the basis of a claim that the utility had sufficient generation capacity.

Several B...

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer discusses the controversial decision by Cabinet to approve a proposed partnership with a Russian company to support the restart of the mothballed gas-to-liquids refinery in Mossel Bay, as well as proposed plans for government to procure 2 500 MW of new nuclear capacity.

The Power Operations & Leadership Association of Southern Africa (Polasa) believes the famine-then-feast profile of Eskom's execution plan for the roll-out of new transmission infrastructure will starve an already embattled domestic industry to the point where it will be unable to make the manufacturing and skills investments required to participate in the later steep rise in grid expenditure.

Chairperson Sagren Moodley tells Engineering News that the back-end-loaded nature of the execution plan for the ten-year Transmission Development Plan (TDP) to 2032 is of "great concern" to the industry as only 12% of the 14 218 km of powerlines proposed for construction under the plan has been earmarked for implementation during the first five-year window.

From financial year 2023 to 2027, only 1 675 km of line is planned for construction, he notes, leaving 88% for the second five-year period from 2028 to 2032.

"This feast-and-famine approach is unsustainable and will cripple many in the industry during the famine years and increase costs and project slippages during the feast years.

"This is an untenable environment for both the industry and for Eskom's own internal resource management," Moodley says.

Polasa is, thus, calling for an urgent collaborative intervention between Eskom, government and the industry to find ways to "flatten" the demand profile by creating more consistent demand in the current five-year execution window.

The association, which has manufacturers, suppliers, consultants and professionals in the transmission and distribution value chain as members, describes the initial ramp-up as too slow, with the execution plan currently even showing a ramp-down from 326 km last year to only 165 km in the current financial year.

"The obvious problem is that many companies throughout the value chain might not be able to survive the famine years, leaving Eskom with a smaller pool of suppliers in the latter years," Moodley adds. This point is also made in the recent Transmission and Distribution Manufacturing Value Chain report released by the Localisation Support Fund.

The lack of workflow also threatens the survival of those startup companies currently participating in Eskom's incubation programme, which has been launched to support the transformation of the sector.

"Whilst this is commendable and supported, the concern is that there is not enough work in the next five years to sustain the main contractors and sub-contractors let alone keep the incubation companies sustainably busy."

Polasa is equally concerned that Eskom is not meeting even its modest roll-out targets, with the pace at which tenders are being released lagging not only the TDP, but the implementation timeframes communicated by Eskom.

"We should have seen the projects in this first five-year window already in the market. This is not the case and therefore casts doubt as to whether we are going to successfully reach this 1 675 km milestone."

As a consequence, more kilometres could well be pushed into the second five-year window, steepening the demand profile further in the latter years and potentially leaving gigawatts of much-needed new generation capacity unable to connect to the grid.

Such a scenario could also trigger a vicious cycle, whereby local manufacturing and contractor capacity is lost to company closures, leaving the market dependent on foreign enterprises and skills once the programme truly accelerates.

"As South Africans, we can ill afford the further de-industrialisation of a battered South African economy. . .The nature of the power line manufacturing and construction sectors is that we are a mass employer of both skilled and unskilled people [and] can make a significant contribution to employment."

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has confirmed that inadequate transmission spending poses a threat to government's plan to end loadshedding permanently and has also flagged the prospect of opening the market to private sector participatio...

South African startup Eagle Eye Defence has developed an in-vehicle security system that uses fingerprint verification to start the power train.

Cofounder Iviwe Mosana describes Eagle Eye Defence as a "tech-enabled asset security company, which looks at the provision of preventative, detective and corrective measures to ensure ultimate asset protection".

"Our current device is a multi-faceted authenticator for assets (mainly vehicles), which provides a complete usage block until a valid biometric measure is presented, in addition to having the correct vehicle key."

Mosana is from Mdantsane in the Eastern Cape. He is an accountant by profession, and holds a BCom Financial Accounting (CA Stream) degree, as well as a postgraduate diploma in accounting from UCT.

He has more than seven years' experience in the retail and security industry.

Eagle Eye's other cofounder, Naadir Vorajee, is from Ladysmith in KwaZulu-Natal.

Vorajee is an engineer by profession, and has a BSc degree in mechatronics, as well as a master's degree with a focus on electrical components.

Mosana says the spark for what would become Eagle Eye Defence arrived in 2016, as he witnessed his younger brother's heartbreak as he lost two of his friends, both minors, in an accident where they used their parents' vehicle without consent.

"This made us aware of the weakened control environment within the asset environment," says Mosana.

"When addressing control, Naadir and I came to the understanding that we should not only look at the ability to direct the use of an asset, but that it should also encompass the ability to hinder movement."

The system "verifies that the correct, authorised individual is about to make use of the vehicle", says Mosana.

"Without an approved biometric, the system does not allow for the use of the key.

"We have conducted several tests, in controlled environments, on several vehicles, without limitation, so we can safely say that installation can happen in any vehicle as it stands.

"Once available, the tech will be available for installation with our partner companies, which will be announced prior to our intended launch date in June," says Mosana.

"We are currently working on the system's cosmetic features and further efficiency improvements, prior to our final approval application with the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (Icasa)," he adds.

"We have a provisional type approval with Icasa, which has allowed us to install our units in a controlled environment for testing, research and demonstration purposes."

Eagle Eye's biometric system is an aftermarket installation, and the team aims to secure a spot on the approved list of vehicle manufacturers' aftermarket parts.

"The cost is estimated to be anywhere between R400 to R580 a month on a subscription model," says Mosana.

"This cost could potentially be absorbed by some key potential partners, such as insurance companies, given the reasonable assurance it provides."

Mosana says while the system currently employs fingerprint verification, Eagle Eye is investigating the introduction of other biometric options.

"The technology is also linked to a web-app to allow for access to additional functionality, such as remote disabling, the tracking of vehicles and driver allocations."

Mosana says he and Vorajee believe their technology will set a new security standard within the insurance, rental and leasing, fleet management, public transportation and e-hailing sectors.

"E-Squared has been working closely with us throughout the development of our device and we remain eternally grateful to them," he adds.

The South African government will publish a request for proposals (RFP) for 2 500 MW of new nuclear capacity by March 2024, following the National Energy Regulator of South Africa's (Nersa's) concurrence with a procurement determination published in 2020.

Nersa's concurrence, which was provided on September 2, had been conditional on the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) meeting several suspensive conditions, including establishing, through a demand and generation profile analysis, the rationality of adding 2 500 MW of nuclear, and confirmation that engineering, procurement and construction contract principles would be used during the procurement phase.

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said the DMRE made a submission to Nersa in July outlining how it had gone about meeting the conditions and that the regulator had considered the submission in August before concurring with the determination.

Nersa's concurrence, together with the Ministerial determination, would be published in an upcoming Government Gazette.

He also confirmed government's intention to move ahead with an open tender for new nuclear. This, despite acknowledging that no new nuclear could be built before the mid-2030s, implying that the technology could play no immediate role in ending the country's prevailing loadshedding crisis.

The decision to proceed was made on the basis of the prevailing Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 (IRP 2019), which makes no specific allocation for nuclear but stipulates only that any nuclear build programme be implemented at a pace and scale that the country can afford.

The RFP would also be launched ahead of the finalisation of the so-called IRP 2023, which was approved for release for public consultation by Cabinet on December 8.

The draft IRP 2023 was expected to be Gazetted this week, but it was not yet clear what comment period would be provided or whether the public consultations would include public hearings.

The document reportedly includes two time horizons, with the horizon to 2030 still unlikely to include new nuclear, but Ramokgopa indicated that nuclear was included in the document, probably for the 2031 to 2050 horizon.

He said the decision to proceed with the RFP was based on the fact that nuclear procurement involved long timeframes and it was, thus, necessary to prepare years in advance to avoid "stop/start" procurement.

DMRE deputy director-general for nuclear Zizamele Mbambo said that a new nuclear build was likely to take between 10 to 12 years from the initiation of procurement to commercial operation. In many instances globally, however, the period has been far longer.

Mbambo said the RFP had not been finalised and the technologies that would be considered, as well as the contracting model, were also yet to be determined.

However, he indicated that both conventional and small-scale reactor technologies could be included and that government's intention was to open it to all nuclear vendors.

He refused to be drawn on whether Russia's Rosatom would be considered given the sanctions that had been implemented against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

However, in its recent approval of a proposed investment partnership between PetroSA and GazpromBank Africa for the restart of PetroSA's gas-to-liquids refinery in Mossel Bay, Cabinet described the secondary sanctions threat as low.

Various questions were posed to the Minister about the business case for new nuclear and its affordability, but only historical tariffs arising from Koeberg, which has been in operation for nearly 40 years, were provided, together with a wide capital-expenditure range of between R2 100/kW and R7 500/kW.

Southern African Faith Communities' Environment Institute and Earthlife Africa amplified these affordability and business-case concerns, noting that "all the independent modelling shows that nuclear energy is neither affordable nor needed in our energy mix now or in the future".

The two organisations ...