Welcome to EP11 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your go-to 5-minute market prep before the chaos begins.

After Jane Street’s return, Monday saw a volatile drop to 24,900, followed by a solid bounce to 25,100. TK walks through global cues, internal positioning, sector strength, and smart expiry trades for the day.

📈 Global Markets:

• S&P 500 (SPY) hit a record: 6,305
• Nasdaq closed at a new high: 20,974
• Dow lost steam late but is positive again in futures
• Europe: Mixed close — FTSE, DAX up; CAC slightly down
• Asia: Rallying across the board — Nikkei, Taiwan, Jakarta all green

📊 FII/DII Flows:

• FIIs sold ₹1,681 Cr
• DIIs bought ₹3,578 Cr
• MTD flows:
  • FIIs: -₹18,636 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹25,471 Cr

  📉 Nifty & Volatility:

• Gift Nifty trading at 25,189 — up 100 points
• Expected Nifty open: around 25,150
• IVs crushed:
  • 24 July: 9.56
  • 31 July: 10.22

• ATM Straddle (25,100): ₹176 → range: 24,924 to 25,276
• Bias: Positive, but with possible intraday volatility

📈 Sector Signals (TK Screener):

Strong Sectors:

• Realty
• Capital Markets
• Metals
• Banking
• Auto
• Finance
• Midcap

Weak Sectors:

• FMCG
• IT
• Infra
• Pharma

⚙️ Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Futures Long: ~90,000
• Call Shorts: ~1.95 lakh
• Put Shorts: ~3.90 lakh
• Net bullish stance → playing the rally

Pros:

• Futures Long: ~12,000
• Call Longs: ~1.91 lakh
• Put Longs: ~2.25 lakh
• Net buyer of options → playing for volatility return

💡 Strategy Ideas:

1. Calendar Spread @ 25,100:
   • Long straddle (31st July), Short straddle (24th July)
   • Trading at ₹148

2. Directional Put Spread (Bull Put):
   • Sell 26,000 Put (31st July)
   • Buy 25,200 Put
   • Spread width: 800 pts
   • Net credit: ~₹685
   • Max risk: ₹115

🪙 Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,519 — strong buy
• Silver (MCX): ₹1,13,860 — long bias
• Crude: ₹5,796 — short zone
• NatGas: Weak — sell signal
• Bitcoin: ₹11,80,000 — showing strength
• Dollar Index: Near 98 — softening trend

“Clients are loaded on puts and calls. Pros are prepping for a volatility comeback. With strong internals and global tailwinds, use calendars or directional put spreads. Avoid naked shorts — range may break.”

📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:45 AM.

🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.