As of this morning, GIFT Nifty is trading around 24,644, down by nearly 40 points, indicating a soft start to the day. But global developments are more significant, with renewed 25% tariff discussions and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment.

Global Market Snapshot:

• US markets closed higher overnight
• Nikkei rallied over 2.16%, up nearly 900 points
• Jakarta and Taiwan also opened strong
• Hang Seng bucked the trend, down 0.86%
• Brent Crude remains under pressure, trading near $67.5
• Gold continues to show strength, currently at $3,381
• Dollar Index is near 98; USDINR testing 88.00

Institutional Flow:

• FIIs were net sellers again, offloading ₹4,997 crore→ August net outflow now at ₹15,951 crore
• DIIs bought ₹10,864 crore worth of equities→ Monthly net buying by DIIs now at ₹29,070 crore

Earnings to Watch Today (234 Companies):

• State Bank of India
• Tata Motors
• Grasim
• Siemens
• Voltas

Expect significant stock-specific moves based on earnings announcements.

Derivatives Positioning:

Clients:

• Net long 4.43 lakh option contracts→ 67,000 long calls→ 3.76 lakh short puts
• Net long 1.19 lakh contracts in futures

Pros:

• Net short by 1.3 lakh contracts→ 21,000 short calls→ 1.08 lakh long puts
• Minor long exposure on futures (18,000 contracts)

Volatility & Implied Range:

• Weekly IVs remain suppressed at 9.74
• Synthetic Futures (14th August expiry): 24,672
• 24,650 straddle priced at ₹269, implies:→ Upside: ~24,980→ Downside: ~24,430

Realized volatility continues to outpace implied, supporting long gamma strategies—buying near-dated straddles and selling back-dated ones can offer favorable setups.

TK ALGO Signal:

• Buy signal on both fast and slow variants
• Mean reversion target remains: 25,000

Sectoral View:

• Strength: Auto, Metals, IT, Finance
• Neutral: Most indices
• Weakness: Pharma, Realty, Smallcap – best avoided for long trades

Commodity Check:

• Crude Oil: ₹5,696 (MCX) – Sell zone
• Natural Gas: ₹272 – Buy zone
• Bitcoin: ₹1,11,123 – Strong momentum
• USDINR testing the 88 level; a breach could lead to broader market pullbacks

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance: 24,700 → Breakout here could trigger a sharp rally to 25,000
• Support: 24,350 → Formed after Thursday’s sharp bounce
• Watch levels:→ Below 24,520: Exit long positions→ Above 24,640: Fresh longs can be initiated→ Sustained breakout above 24,700 = potential rally to 25,000

Suggested Strategy:

Long Gamma remains the preferred approach, especially with low IVs and expanding realized moves. Consider broken wing butterflies or short calendars around 24,900–25,000.

This was Tanmay Kurtkoti, founder of QCAlpha, and you’re listening to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute pre-market audio podcast before the chaos begins.

The expiry starts on a weak note with Gift Nifty down 69 points around 24,561 — weighed down by continued FII selling and fresh US tariffs on oil imports.

Despite a strong global setup (Nasdaq +1.2%, Dow Futures up), Indian markets are bucking the trend.

Big Headlines:

• RBI kept repo rate unchanged at 5.5%
• U.S. slapped 25% tariffs on key oil-linked imports
• Apple-led tech rally boosted Nasdaq
• Volatility likely to rise into the second half

Global Markets Snapshot:

• Nasdaq: +1.2% | 21,169
• S&P 500: +0.73% | 6,345
• Dow Futures: +146 pts
• Asia: Mixed, with Taiwan leading (+2.28%), while India underperforms
• Brent Crude: $67.50
• Gold: $3,381 | Strength returns
• USDINR: 87.73 | Near key 88 resistance

FII/DII Flows (6th Aug):

• FIIs: Sold ₹4,999 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹6,794 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹10,954 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹18,207 Cr

Earnings Watch (250+ results today):

• Titan, LIC, Godrej CP, HPCL, GIC, BSE, Kalyan Jewellers

Sector View (TK Screener):

• Weak: Pharma, IT, FMCG, Realty, Midcap, Infra
• Neutral/Bullish pockets: Capital Markets, select Finance & Bank Nifty stocks
• TK ALGO: Sell on both fast and slow signals

Levels to Watch:

• Open: 24,562
• Synthetic Futures: 24,577
• Straddle (24,650): ₹150 → Range: 24,700 / 24,450
• Support Zone: 24,500
• Resistance Flip Zone: 24,660–24,700

Option Strategies:

• Broken Wing Butterfly @ 24,700 for expiry pin
• Avoid put selling early in the day — clients overloaded on puts
• Volatility Play: IVs rising → 7 Aug IV at 12.29, could open at 14+

Positioning Snapshot:

Clients:

• Long Futures: 1.4 lakh
• Call Longs: 1.29 lakh
• Put Shorts: 4.62 lakh
• Net Bullish: 5.91 lakh contracts

Pros:

• Call Shorts: 76k
• Put Longs: 1.71 lakh
• Net Bearish: 2.47 lakh contracts
• Futures: 18k long (negligible)

Commodities:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,795 – Buy
• Silver: ₹1,13,906 – Strength
• Crude: ₹5,817 – Sell
• Natural Gas: ₹261 – Weak

Stay light in the morning. Wait for volatility spike post initial jerk. Avoid naked short vol trades. Market still in sell mode. Keep an eye on 24,500 for support.

🎧 Listen now to prep your expiry day in 5 mins — clear levels, flows, sectors & trades.

#TradeSetupWithTanmay | Daily at 8:30 AM

Your edge before the chaos begins.

EP 21: RBI Policy Day, Flat Open, Long Gamma Still in Play, Clients vs Pros Diverge 6th August ( Wed )

Market Snapshot

• Gift Nifty trades flat at 24,704
• RBI’s MPC policy meet today at 10 AM
• No rate change expected, but some calls for 25 bps cut

Global Markets

• Nasdaq: -137 pts (20,916)
• S&P 500: -30 pts (6,299)
• Dow Futures: +146 pts
• Asia Mixed:
  • Nikkei: +267 pts
  • Jakarta, Shanghai: Mildly positive
  • Taiwan: -140 pts
  • Hang Seng: -146 pts

FII/DII Cash Flow (5 Aug)

• FIIs: Sold ₹22 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹3,840 Cr
• MTD Totals:
  • FIIs: -₹5,955 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹11,413 Cr

  Earnings Watch (6 Aug)

145 companies to report. Key names:

• Bajaj Auto
• Devis Labs
• Hero MotoCorp
• PFC
• Pidilite
• Bajaj Holdings

Positioning Data

Clients

• Long Futures: 1.18 lakh
• Call Longs: 27,000
• Put Shorts: 4.25 lakh
• Net Long Exposure: 4.53 lakh contracts

Pros

• Long Futures: 16,000
• Call Longs: 11,000
• Put Longs: 2.8 lakh
• Net Short Exposure: -1.96 lakh contracts

Takeaway:

Clients remain strongly bullish, Pros remain cautious and defensive.

Sector Trends (TK Screener)

Strength:

• Auto
• Metals
• Realty

Weakness:

• Banking
• Smallcap
• Capital Markets

TK Algo Signal

• Fast Signal: Buy
• Combined Signal: Still in Sell

Volatility and Option Setup

• 7th Aug IV: 11.17
• 7th Aug Synthetic Future: 24,658
• 24,650 Straddle: ₹176
• Calendar (24,650): ₹154
• Implied Range:
  • Upside: 24,800
  • Downside: 24,520

• Long gamma remains in focus
• No short volatility trades before 10 AM (RBI policy)
• Post-policy, short calendars may be initiated
• Mean stands at 24,900
• As long as 24,600 holds, play for bounce towards 25,000

Final Word

Volatility is at lower end of range, policy outcome could shake things up. Stay light till 10 AM. Directional clarity may emerge post-RBI. Bias remains mildly bullish with controlled risk.

Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti is your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins. Join every morning at 8:00–8:30 AM.

Market Snapshot

Gift Nifty is flat at 24,720 — suggesting a muted open. After yesterday’s volatile bounce, markets are consolidating below the 24,700 zone. Volatility has risen from extreme lows, and real moves are starting to exceed implied expectations — setting the tone for long gamma plays.

🌍 Global Markets

• Dow Futures: +35 pts
• Nasdaq: Closed +0.3% at 20,710
• S&P 500: Closed flat at 6,238
• Europe: Slight recovery, FTSE & CAC marginally positive
• Asia: Mixed
  • Nikkei: -0.4%
  • Hang Seng: +0.2%
  • Taiwan, Shanghai: Flat

  📊 FII/DII Cash Flows (Monday, 4 Aug)

• FIIs: Sold ₹2,968 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹3,105 Cr
• MTD Totals
  • FIIs: -₹8,356 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹9,960 Cr

📈 Derivatives Positioning

Clients

• Long Futures: +11,000
• Long Calls: +25,000
• Short Puts: -4,30,000
• Net Long Bias: +4,66,000 contracts

Pros

• Long Futures: +9,000
• Short Calls: -18,000
• Long Puts: +2,21,000
• Net Short Bias: -2,30,000 contracts

Interpretation:

Clients continue to load up on bullish trades — long futures, short puts — creating exposure risk. Pros remain cautious, long on protection. Trap setups possible if early rally fails.

📍 Key Levels & Option Data

• Spot Close: ~24,722
• 7th August ATM Straddle (24,750): ₹225
  • Upside Implied: ~24,980
  • Downside Implied: ~24,520

• IVs Rising:
  • Weekly (7 Aug): 11.88
  • Monthly (28 Aug): 12.1

Strategy View:

• Long Gamma preferred
• Short Calendar trades (front straddle long, back straddle short)
• Bullish Butterfly at 24,900–25,000 as tactical idea

📊 Sectors (TK Algo Screener)

Strength:

• FMCG
• CPSE (mild improvement)

• Smallcap
• Realty
• IT
• Pharma
• Midcap
• Auto
• Metals

Nifty Trend: Still in Buy Mode (Fast + Combined) on TK Algo

📦 Earnings to Watch (5 Aug)

Over 90 results expected. Key ones include:

• Bharti Airtel
• NMDC
• Indian Overseas Bank
• Mahindra Logistics
• Torrent Pharma

• Flat start expected
• Market may consolidate early
• Watch for dips to buy into gamma setups
• 24,600–24,700 remains the base
• Mean reversion can lift Nifty toward 25,000 later this week
• Vols are picking up — don’t get complacent

Tune in every market morning for the edge you need.

Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti — your 5-minute pre-market prep before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP19 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.

The August series kicks off with caution. Gift Nifty trades 84 points higher at 24,683, but global sentiment remains weak. US and European indices closed sharply lower on Friday, and Asian markets this morning are deep in the red — barring a few exceptions.

Despite this, clients continue to carry aggressive long positions, even as pros quietly maintain bearish exposure. Volatility is beginning to pick up, and the divergence between implied and realized moves is creating space for long gamma strategies this week.

Global Snapshot (as of 8 AM IST):

• Gift Nifty: 24,683 (+84 pts)
• Dow Futures: +10 pts

Earnings Today (Key Companies):

102 results expected including:

• DLF, Bosch, Siemens, Marico, Auro Pharma, Aditya Birla Capital, Godrej, Sundaram Finance,

Cient vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Futures Long: 13,000 contracts
• Call Longs: 23,000
• Put Shorts: 4.5 lakh
• Net Long Exposure: ~5.45 lakh contracts

Pros:

• Futures Long: 11,000
• Call Shorts: 16,000
• Put Longs: 2.35 lakh
• Net Short Bias: ~2.4 lakh contracts

Insight:

Clients remain strongly bullish. Pros are defending downside with long puts and limited longs. If global cues stay weak, client positions may get tested.

Index Setup & Volatility:

• Synthetic Futures (7 Aug): 24,560
• Expected Spot Open: ~24,600
• Straddle (24,600 ATM): ₹297
  • Range: 24,420–24,870

• IV (7 Aug Weekly): 11.4
  • Higher than last week’s 9-range but still under pressure

  Strategy Outlook:

• Long gamma trade preferred → realized vol > implied
• Short calendar can be initiated:
  • Buy front-week straddle
  • Sell next-week straddle

• Directional Option Setup:
  • Long butterfly around 24,900–25,000 mean zone

  TK Algo & Sector View:

• Signal: Still in sell mode (fast + slow)
• Sector Strength: Only FMCG
• Weakness: Realty, Smallcap, Midcap, Metals, IT, Pharma

Commodities & Currency:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,643 — Buy
• Silver (MCX): ₹1,09,382 — Sell
• Crude (MCX): ₹6,053 — Neutral
• NatGas (MCX): ₹272 — Neutral
• USDINR: ₹88 — Strong
• Dollar Index: Rising
• Bitcoin: ₹1,15,000 — Recovered from ₹1,12,000 lows

Clients are fully loaded on the long side. The market may bounce at the open, but risk remains skewed to the downside. If 24,600 breaks and global sentiment worsens, long positions may get squeezed. Use long gamma setups. Avoid chasing direction until structure builds post-opening.

Listen to the full episode now and prep for your trading day.

Trade Setup with Tanmay – Your daily edge before the chaos begins.

New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST.

Welcome to EP18 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

The August series opens on the back foot. Gift Nifty is down 105 points, trading near 24,730, pressured by weak global cues, ongoing FII selling, and tariff tensions. The July expiry saw late-day selling despite a bounce earlier in the session, closing Nifty at 24,768.

Global Snapshot:

• Asia
  • Nikkei: -170 pts (-0.43%)
  • Hang Seng: -80 pts (-0.3%)
  • Taiwan: -127 pts (-0.5%)
  • Kospi: -3%
  • Shanghai, Jakarta: Flat to positive

• Gift Nifty: 24,730 (↓0.42%) at 8 AM IST

Commodities & Currency:

• Brent Crude: $71.59 — facing resistance near $72.50
• Gold (Comex): $3,289/oz — showing renewed strength
• Gold (MCX): ₹99,080 — buy signal
• Silver (MCX): ₹1,10,586 — sell bias
• Crude (MCX): ₹6,084 — stabilizing
• Natural Gas: Neutral
• Dollar Index: Rising towards 101
• USDINR: ₹87.60 — rupee weakens, ₹88 in sight for August

FII/DII Flow (July 31):

• FIIs: Sold ₹5,588 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹6,372 Cr
• August MTD (1 day)
  • FIIs: -₹6,400 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹8,200 Cr

  Index Position & Volatility:

• Nifty Spot: Likely to open near 24,700
• Support: 24,650
• Resistance: 25,000
• Mean: Still around 25,000
• IV (7 Aug Weekly): 10.88 — still low
• ATM Straddle (24,800): ₹305
  • Implied range:
    • Downside: 24,350
    • Upside: 25,100

    Volatility Play:

• Front IV low, Realized Vol high
• Long Gamma strategies recommended
• Suggested structure:
  • Buy front-end straddles
  • Sell back-end straddles → Short Calendar

• Play long gamma, short vega exposure

Sector View (TK Screener):

Weak

• Capital Markets
• Smallcap
• Metals
• CPSC

Watch for Bounce

• FMCG
• IT
• Banking

Support Levels

• If 24,650–24,600 holds, a move back to 25,000 possible

Strategy Outlook:

• Stay light at open
• Long Gamma positions work best on wide moves
• Calendar or straddle/strangle setups preferred
• Gold–Silver pair trade opportunity:
  • Long Gold / Short Silver

• “Global pressure, FII outflows, and rising USDINR are pulling the market lower. But if 24,600 holds, a base could form. Keep trades light and reactive. Real opportunity lies in long gamma plays this series.”

📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST

🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP17 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

Markets are set to open deep in the red after Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India. Gift Nifty is down 180 points around 24,675 as of 8 AM. It’s expiry day, and volatility is likely to spike sharply in the morning session.

Global Snapshot:

• Nasdaq: +31 pts to 21,129
• S&P 500: -8 pts to 6,362
• Dow Futures: +53 pts
• Europe: All major indices positive (FTSE +50, CAC +56, DAX +247)
• Asia: Mixed
• Gift Nifty: 24,675 (↓0.8%)

Commodities & Currency:

• Brent Crude: $72.36
• Gold (Comex): $3,292/oz
• Gold (MCX): ₹98,795 — rising
• Crude (MCX): ₹6,022 — strong
• Silver: ₹1,13,850
• Dollar Index: 98.7
• USDINR: Firm

FII/DII Flow (Wednesday):

• FIIs: Sold ₹4,636 Cr (8th consecutive day)
• DIIs: Bought ₹6,146 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹41,227 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹52,737 Cr

Earnings Watch:

Key results today from Maruti Suzuki, Adani Enterprises, Coal India, and others following strong prints from major names yesterday.

Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients

• Net Long: 3.72 lakh contracts
• Call Shorts: 5,000
• Put Shorts: 3.78 lakh → risk of getting trapped on open

Pros

• Call Longs: 54,000
• Put Longs: 2.00 lakh
• Net Short Bias: ~1.46 lakh → aligned for downside gain in early trade

Interpretation: Clients could get caught on the wrong foot in the opening drop. Pros likely to benefit from volatility spike.

Nifty & Options Setup:

• Nifty Spot Close (Prev): ~24,800
• Opening Expected: ~24,675
• ATM Straddle (31 Jul): ₹117
  • Implied range:
    • Upside: 25,000
    • Downside: 24,700 (at-the-money open)

    OI Analysis:

  • Support: 24,600 Put OI ~77 lakh
  • Resistance: 24,800 Call OI heavy
  • 24,500 Put: Low OI — limited downside cushion

Sector Snapshot (TK Algo):

• Weak: Capital Markets, IT
• Neutral: FMCG, Metals
• Potential Bounce: Infra, Pharma

Today’s theme: wait-and-watch for second-half recovery.

“Expect a volatile open with downside gaps. Put writers are likely to get hit early. If we hold above 24,600, a bounce into expiry is possible. Tariff panic may get digested by afternoon. Stay light and reactive — expiry can be a trap.”

📅 New episodes every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST

🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti — your daily edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP16 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

Markets open flat with Gift Nifty at 24,803, down 36 points. The setup remains cautious ahead of the key Fed decision tonight. FIIs continue to sell for the eighth straight day, while DII flows support the market. Earnings, global cues, and sector rotations are setting the tone.

Global Markets

US indices touched record highs before paring gains.

Nasdaq: 21,098 (-18 pts)

S&P 500: 6,370.86 (-18 pts)

Dow Futures: +53 pts

Europe closed strong

FTSE: +50 pts

CAC: +56 pts

DAX: +247 pts

Asia this morning is mixed

Taiwan, Kospi, Shanghai, Jakarta: positive

Hang Seng, Nikkei: down

Gift Nifty: 24,803 (-38 pts) at 8 AM IST

Commodities and Currency

Crude Brent: $72

Gold: $3,328/oz

Gold (MCX): ₹97,930

Silver: ₹1,30,398 (neutral)

Crude Oil (MCX): ₹5,830 (showing strength)

Natural Gas: neutral

Dollar Index: 98.7

USDINR: stable

FII/DII Activity (Tuesday)

FIIs: Sold ₹4,636 Cr

DIIs: Bought ₹6,146 Cr

MTD Tally

FIIs: -₹41,227 Cr

DIIs: +₹52,737 Cr

Earnings Today

Over 100 companies to report, including Power Grid, Indigo, Tata Steel, Hyundai Motors, PNB, Indus Tower, Hitachi, KPIT

Client vs Pro Positioning

Clients

Futures Long: 1.31 lakh contracts

Call Shorts: 1.23 lakh

Put Shorts: 4.4 lakh

Net Long Exposure: ~3.17 lakh contracts

Clients remain long but have begun unwinding calls

Pros

Futures Long: 9,850

Call Longs: 1.47 lakh

Put Longs: 2.14 lakh

Net Short Exposure: ~60,000 contracts

Pros maintain bearish stance

Interpretation

Clients are still long but hesitant. Pros continue to hold protective put longs. This divergence could lead to volatility near key expiry levels.

TK Algo Update

Fast signal: Buy

Combined signal: Still Sell

Awaiting confirmation for full reversal

Sector Snapshot

Strength: Pharma, Infra, Auto

Neutral: Metals, Finance, Realty

Weak: FMCG, IT, Realty

Volatility & Expiry Setup

IVs have bounced slightly

31 Jul IV: 9.71

August IV: 10.32

Straddle (31 Jul @ ATM): ₹154

Implied Range

Upside: ~25,000

Downside: ~24,700

Outlook

A flat to weak open may drift to 24,700–24,750 intraday

Watch 24,890 as trigger level for short-covering

Mean remains at 25,000

Strategy

Call calendars or call spreads preferred

Short calendar trades may work on high strikes

Avoid aggressive long trades unless 24,890 is reclaimed

The market is still looking for direction. A 25–30 point dip early could attract dip buyers if expiry support zones hold. Watch Fed commentary tonight for bigger directional cues into Thursday’s trade.

Episodes drop every morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST

Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins

Welcome to EP15 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

The market opens on a shaky note. Gift Nifty is down 45 points at 24,673. FIIs have now sold for six straight sessions. Clients are overloaded on the long side while pros quietly accumulate puts. Is another leg down on the cards?

• 📊FII/DII Cash Activity (Monday):

• FIIs: Sold ₹6,082 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹6,764 Cr
• MTD Tally:
  • FIIs: -₹36,591 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹46,590 Cr

⚙️Market Setup:

• Nifty (Spot): ~24,706
• Opening print expected: ~24,650
• TK Algo Signal: Still in Sell mode from 25,135

📉 Sectors in Red:

• Realty
• Capital Markets
• Smallcap
• Infra
• FMCG
• CPSC
• Metals

📈 Only CNX Pharma shows relative strength

Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Long Futures: 1.26 lakh
• Call Longs: 81,000
• Put Shorts: 5.00 lakh
• Net Long Bias: +5.90 lakh contracts → overextended

Pros:

• Long Futures: 15,000
• Call Shorts: 5,000
• Put Longs: 2.48 lakh
• Net Bearish Bias: ~2.54 lakh contracts

Interpretation:

Clients are aggressively long into a falling market. Pros are positioned for a continued breakdown. Caution warranted.

⚠️Volatility & Expiry Insight:

• 31 Jul IV: 11.02
• Aug IV: 11.17 — Surface is flat but up from sub-10 lows
• ATM Straddle (31 Jul @ 24,700): ₹208
• Recommendation:
  • Short Calendars
  • Long Gamma via short-dated straddles + long-dated hedges

🔑Key Levels:

• Resistance: 24,960 → 25,085
• Support: 24,700 (critical), followed by 24,680 & 24,650
• If 24,680 breaks — no fresh longs
• Only consider upside trades above 24,700 with follow-through
• Mean has shifted down to 25,000, stay cautious

🪙Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,117 — Neutral
• Silver: ₹1,13,169 — Sell bias
• Crude: ₹5,714 — Sell zone
• NatGas: ₹225 — Sell
• Dollar Index: Firm
• USDINR: ₹86.41 — Strength persists
• Bitcoin: Flat, trading near ₹1,16,000

“Clients are fully long — and fully exposed. If 24,680–700 doesn’t hold, the market could see fresh pressure. Pharma remains the lone bright spot. Best setups today: short calendars, call spreads, butterflies only above key supports.”

📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST

🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP14 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

The week begins flat with Gift Nifty at 24,839, but sentiment remains fragile. FIIs continue to sell, earnings are heavy, and key support levels are being tested.

🌍 Global Cues:

• Dow Futures: +183 pts at 45,083
• S&P 500 & Nasdaq: Closed higher on Friday
• Europe: Mixed
• Asia:
• Crude: $69
• Gold: $3,332 (↓0.15%)
• Dollar Index: 97.64
• USDINR: 86.52

📊 FII/DII Activity (Friday):

• FIIs: Sold ₹1,979 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹2,138 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹30,508 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹39,825 Cr

💼 Earnings Today (86+ Companies):

Key names: Indian Bank, Nestle, Adani Trans, Canara Bank, AFL, Emphasis, and more.

⚙️ Market Structure & Volatility:

• Nifty: Still in sell mode on TK Algo
• Only Pharma showing relative strength
• Weakness across: Smallcap, Realty, Capital Markets, Midcap, FMCG, Infra, CPSC

IVs remain compressed:

• 31 Jul: 9.12
• 7 Aug: 9.86
• Aug Expiry: 10.31

ATM Straddle (31 Jul @ 24,850): ₹238

• Range Projection:
  • Downside: 24,600
  • Upside: 25,050

  📈 Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Long Futures: 1.16 lakh
• Call Longs: 66,000
• Put Shorts: 4.75 lakh
• Net Long Exposure: 5.41 lakh contracts → strong bullish bias

Pros:

• Long Futures: 17,000
• Call Shorts: 39,000
• Put Longs: 2.26 lakh
• Net Bearish Bias: 2.65 lakh contracts

Interpretation:

• Clients are still aggressively long
• Pros are positioned for a downside trap
• Early move could shake out over-leveraged long trades

🔑 Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 24,960 → 25,085
• Support Zones: 24,785 → 24,720
• Plan: Avoid long entries at open
  • Wait for weakness to play out
  • Consider bounce trades only near support

🪙 Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,223 — Sell bias
• Silver: ₹1,14,815 — Flat
• Crude: ₹5,742 — Neutral
• NatGas: ₹270 — Reversal watch
• Dollar Index & USDINR: Trading flat

“Don’t buy the open. Let weakness play out early. Watch 24,720–24,780 for potential bounce trades. Vols are still suppressed, so trend clarity may only come post-Fed. Pharma shows strength, rest of the market looks fragile.”

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