Welcome to EP07 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute morning podcast before the chaos begins. In this episode, Tanmay dives into US inflation, market reactions, sector rotations, and option structures for expiry week.

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Top Highlights:

📉 Market Snapshot:

• Gift Nifty down 90 points, trading near 25,170 at 8:20 AM.
• Monday’s close: 25,195, minor bounce from lows.
• CPI surprise: US inflation rose to 2.7% YoY vs 2.6% expected → minor global jitters.

🌍 Global & Asian Markets:

• US Markets: Dow & S&P fell 0.2%–0.4%, Nasdaq up 0.2%
• Europe: FTSE, CAC, DAX fell 0.5%–0.6%
• Asia: Mostly green – Shanghai, Hang Seng, Jakarta, Taiwan all positive
• Non-correlation Alert: Asia up, Gift Nifty down.

💹 FII/DII Flows:

• FIIs bought ₹120 Cr in cash
• DIIs bought ₹1,555 Cr → Monthly DII inflow: ₹15,745 Cr; FIIs still net sellers: ₹11,778 Cr

🛢️ Commodities & Currency:

• Brent at $68.91 (cool-off from $70+)
• Gold: $3,327 – flat but showing strength
• Silver: ₹1,12,722 – strong buy zone
• Crude: ₹5,714 (neutral) | NatGas: ₹295 (buy zone)
• USDINR: 85.81 | DXY: 98.6 – strong bounce from 97.75

📊 Sector Signals (TK ALGO):

Strength:

• CNX Pharma
• Capital Markets
• FMCG
• Financials
• Auto, Smallcap, Midcap

Weakness:

• Infra
• CPSC
• Metals
• Nifty & Bank Nifty in neutral/sell zone

⚙️ Options & Volatility Setup:

• 17 July IV: 8.8
• 24 July IV: 9.49
• 31 July IV: 9.95
• Vols extremely suppressed → calendar spreads preferred

📈 Straddle Analysis (ATM 25,250):

• Premium: ₹142 → 1 SD range = ±124 pts
• Range: 25,050 – 25,350

💡 Strategy for Today:

• Nifty TK Signal: Sell from 25,438 (both slow & fast)
• Deploy Calendar Spread: Buy 24 Jul, Sell 17 Jul
• Iron Fly (25,250): 150-point wings for expiry trade
• Put shorts dominate: Clients have 3.45 lakh put shorts vs 1.03 lakh call shorts
• Suggestion: Hedge naked puts with OTM spreads

🔻 Crypto Watch:

• Bitcoin: ₹1,16,770 – weak zone, short opportunity

• Put-heavy client positioning may get trapped on open.
• Volatility is dirt cheap – ideal for calendars & Iron Flys.
• Watch for bounce back toward 25,300 zone by mid-week.

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🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay – Your Daily 5-Minute Edge Before the Chaos Begins.

Welcome to Episode 6 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute podcast before the chaos begins. In this episode, Tanmay Kurtkoti Founder QCAlpha breaks down the global setup, sector flows, volatility signals, and trade ideas for the day.

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Top Highlights:

📉 Market Overview:

• SGX Nifty at 25,188, flat to mildly negative.
• Friday close: Nifty dipped below key support at 25,200, entering a volatile but low IV zone.
• Current mean reversion level: 25,300; buy near 25,000 levels.

🌍 Global Cues:

• US Markets down: Dow -0.5%, S&P -0.33%
• Weakness driven by Meta news and Trump tariff escalation.
• Asian markets mixed: Nikkei & Taiwan down, Shanghai, Hangseng, Jakarta up.

🛢️ Commodities:

• Brent Crude: $70.42
• Gold: $3,356/oz
• Silver (MCX): ₹111506 – showing strength
• Gold MCX: ₹97,373, watch for breakout above ₹97,600
• Crude & NatGas: Neutral
• Bitcoin: Trading strong around ₹1.18L

📊 FII/DII Data:

• FIIs sold ₹5,154 Cr, continuing their exit.
• DIIs bought ₹3,558 Cr; net DII inflows ~₹12,000 Cr MTD.
• FIIs remain net sellers for July: ₹10,284 Cr.

📉 Sector Signals (TK ALGO):

• Broad weakness across sectors:
  • Capital markets, Smallcap, Midcap, Metals, Auto, Infra → all negative.

• Nifty TK Algo Signal:
  • Slow Signal Sell: 25,438
  • Fast Signal Sell: 25,363

⚙️ Options & Volatility:

• IV (17 July): 9.17 (very low)
• IV (24 July): 10.0
• Suggests short-term suppression, but vol bounce likely next week.
• Calendar Spread Idea:
  • Buy 24 July straddle, Sell 17 July straddle
  • Take advantage of IV differential (long calendar)

📌 ATM Straddle (17 July @ 25,200):

• Trading at ₹244 → 1 SD range ≈ 25,000–25,300

🎯 Take:

• Low volatility = great time to initiate calendars
• Market remains in mean-reverting mode between 25,000–25,300
• Short-vol trades early in the week, prepare for vol expansion later

👍 Like what you hear? Follow, Share, and Rate the podcast.

🎧 Join us tomorrow again for your daily 5-minute prep before the chaos begins.

Welcome to Episode 5 of Trade Setup with Tanmay – your daily 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.

In today’s (July 9th) episode, we focus on momentum shifts after a surprise rally and what’s building up before tonight’s FOMC minutes release.

🔍 Here’s what we cover today:

• 🎯 Nifty’s short-term support and resistance after yesterday’s late-day surge
• 📉 Volatility drop + TK Algo flipping long = bullish bias building
• 💰 FII/DII flows, client positioning – bullish tone from puts and futures
• 🌏 Global markets: Flat Asia, positive cues from Europe, Trump’s copper tariffs spark commodity action
• 📈 Sector strength: FMCG, Realty, Finance, Infra leading the charge
• 📉 Weakness in Metals – short opportunities?
• 💡 Strategy spotlight: Short calendar vs. long gamma spread using ATM straddles
• 🛢️ Commodities: Gold corrects, Crude and NatGas strong, Bitcoin bullish

👉 This is a volatile setup day, best played with structured risk – straddles, strangles, or calendar spreads could help capture the move.

🎧 Tune in every market morning by 8:45 AM IST.

❤️ If you find this helpful, please rate, follow, and share with your trading circle.

— Hosted by Tanmay Kurtkoti, Founder – QCAlpha

Welcome to Episode 3 of Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.

Today’s market talk starts with a bang – NSE reveals retail traders lost over ₹1 lakh on average in FY25, even as participation soared by 41%.

But beyond the data, we set you up for Sensex expiry day with clarity on:

• 📉 Global market mood: US down on geopolitical worries, Asia bouncing back
• 📊 Nifty’s narrow range play – key straddle data, IV outlook, and expected move
• 🔄 Calendar spreads in play amid falling vols – what setup works today
• 🔥 Sectoral trend check: FMCG, Pharma, Infra bullish; Midcap, IT weak
• 🛢️ Commodity momentum: Gold, Silver, Crude show strength, Nat Gas weak
• 💱 Dollar Index & USDINR update

Today’s takeaway? Dip = buy bias remains, with options setups like calendars and butterflies suited for expiry play.

👉 Catch this show every market morning by 8:45 AM IST to prep your trades.

📢 If you find this helpful, please rate, follow, and share with fellow traders.

Let’s trade smart, before the chaos begins.

— Hosted by Tanmay Kurtkoti, Founder, QCAlpha & TrishaCapital

Welcome to Episode 2 of Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.

In today’s (July 7th) episode, we take a sharp look at:

• 📉 Friday’s volatile moves and how Nifty danced between 25,400–25,540
• 🌏 Global market mood: Asia trades weak, US closed strong
• 🛢️ Brent crude, gold, and currency updates
• 📊 Sector radar: Pharma, Infra, Smallcap showing strong strength on PK Algo
• 🔄 Nifty’s mean reversion level at 25,300 and straddle-based expected range
• 🔥 Options outlook: Low IV, calendar spreads in play, and breakout watch

With markets just 2.5% away from lifetime highs, are we gearing up for a big move? This episode helps you position right — with insights on volatility, FII/DII flow, and key index levels.

👉 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:45 AM IST.

🎯 Don’t forget to subscribe, share, and follow @TanmayKurtkoti for daily trade setups and chart insights.

Let’s trade smart, before the chaos begins.

Welcome to Episode 2 of Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.

In today’s episode (July 4, 2025), we decode:

• 🔍 Nifty hovering near resistance at 25,400 – what to watch
• 🏦 Banknifty remains range-bound – breakout signs missing
• 📈 Sector flows update: Midcaps still strong, FMCG shows signs of fatigue
• 💸 FII/DII flow snapshot and SGX Nifty indications
• ⚠️ Key levels and triggers to structure your trades for the day

Grab your chai and get ready for a structured start to your trading day.

🎯 New episodes every market morning by 8:45 AM IST.

Follow me on @TanmayKurtkoti for charts, setups, and live insights.

Let’s trade smart, and stay ahead.

Welcome to Episode 1 of Trade Setup with Tanmay – your quick 5-minute edge before the Indian market opens.

In today’s episode, I break down the key global cues, sector strength, and index setups you should keep an eye on:

• Nifty stuck in a tight range – breakout or breakdown ahead?
• Auto & Pharma sectors showing strong momentum
• Crude oil rebounds — what it means for energy stocks
• FII/DII data, OI trends, and what’s flashing on the options radar

Grab your morning chai and tune in — this episode will help you structure your trading plan before the bell rings at 9:15.

🎯 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:45 AM IST.

Subscribe, share, and follow me on @TanmayKurtkoti for daily updates and chart insights.

Let’s trade smarter, not harder.

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