It’s expiry day, Thursday 21st August, and markets are trading steady near the 25,000 mark. GIFT Nifty is higher at 25,109 (+29 pts), even as US markets saw weakness (Nasdaq -142 pts) and Asian markets trade mixed. Crude has bounced back above $67, gold is inching higher, and USDINR trades firm above 87.

Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold another ₹1,100 crore while DIIs bought ₹1,806 crore, keeping the monthly totals wide apart (FIIs -₹25,375 crore vs DIIs +₹63,966 crore).

Positioning shows clients still holding net longs (~3.16L shares), while pros have cut their shorts to ~56k. Synthetic futures are aligned near spot, indicating expiry action around 25,000–25,150. Weekly IVs have collapsed to 8.8, with the 25,050 straddle pricing just ₹106 — implying an ultra-narrow expiry range of 24,950–25,150.

Today’s trade setup:

• Avoid naked option selling in the morning; vols can spike.
• Calendar trades remain attractive (realized vols > implied).
• Consider a Long Call Butterfly around 25k: Buy 24,950 CE, Sell 2× 25,050 CE, Buy 25,100 CE — defined risk, expiry-aligned.

Sectoral strength continues in IT, Realty, Capital Markets, Small/Midcaps, and FMCG, while Pharma and CPSE remain neutral. In commodities, crude is weak, silver is falling, gold is stable, and Bitcoin trades soft.

The broader market mean remains at 25,000, with upside potential towards 25,200 if momentum builds.

Stay light, trade smart, and let expiry work for you.