EP 21: RBI Policy Day, Flat Open, Long Gamma Still in Play, Clients vs Pros Diverge 6th August ( Wed )

Market Snapshot

• Gift Nifty trades flat at 24,704
• RBI’s MPC policy meet today at 10 AM
• No rate change expected, but some calls for 25 bps cut

Global Markets

• Nasdaq: -137 pts (20,916)
• S&P 500: -30 pts (6,299)
• Dow Futures: +146 pts
• Asia Mixed:
  • Nikkei: +267 pts
  • Jakarta, Shanghai: Mildly positive
  • Taiwan: -140 pts
  • Hang Seng: -146 pts

FII/DII Cash Flow (5 Aug)

• FIIs: Sold ₹22 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹3,840 Cr
• MTD Totals:
  • FIIs: -₹5,955 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹11,413 Cr

  Earnings Watch (6 Aug)

145 companies to report. Key names:

• Bajaj Auto
• Devis Labs
• Hero MotoCorp
• PFC
• Pidilite
• Bajaj Holdings

Positioning Data

Clients

• Long Futures: 1.18 lakh
• Call Longs: 27,000
• Put Shorts: 4.25 lakh
• Net Long Exposure: 4.53 lakh contracts

Pros

• Long Futures: 16,000
• Call Longs: 11,000
• Put Longs: 2.8 lakh
• Net Short Exposure: -1.96 lakh contracts

Takeaway:

Clients remain strongly bullish, Pros remain cautious and defensive.

Sector Trends (TK Screener)

Strength:

• Auto
• Metals
• Realty

Weakness:

• Banking
• Smallcap
• Capital Markets

TK Algo Signal

• Fast Signal: Buy
• Combined Signal: Still in Sell

Volatility and Option Setup

• 7th Aug IV: 11.17
• 7th Aug Synthetic Future: 24,658
• 24,650 Straddle: ₹176
• Calendar (24,650): ₹154
• Implied Range:
  • Upside: 24,800
  • Downside: 24,520

• Long gamma remains in focus
• No short volatility trades before 10 AM (RBI policy)
• Post-policy, short calendars may be initiated
• Mean stands at 24,900
• As long as 24,600 holds, play for bounce towards 25,000

Final Word

Volatility is at lower end of range, policy outcome could shake things up. Stay light till 10 AM. Directional clarity may emerge post-RBI. Bias remains mildly bullish with controlled risk.

Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti is your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins. Join every morning at 8:00–8:30 AM.