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EP27: Nifty Balances at 25K | Longs Reduce, Pros Cut Shorts, Calendar Trades in Play | 20th August, Wednesday
Welcome to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.
It’s Wednesday, 20th August, and markets are holding steady near the 25,000 mark despite weakness in global equities. Asian indices are sharply lower (Nikkei -1.6%, Taiwan -1.8%, Kospi -1.85%), while US markets saw a tech-led selloff with Nasdaq dropping 1.5%. Brent crude remains under $66, gold continues to slip, and USDINR has cooled off after rejecting 87.50 resistance.
Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold ₹634 crore while DIIs bought ₹2,261 crore, keeping the monthly trend intact: FIIs net sellers (₹24,200 cr) and DIIs strong buyers (₹62,160 cr).
On the positioning front, clients have trimmed longs to ~3.96 lakh shares, while pros have cut shorts sharply to ~65k. With both sides reducing extremes, the market positioning looks balanced. The implied range from the 25k straddle is 24,800–25,200, keeping 25k as the mean reference. Volatility remains subdued at 9.46, making calendar spreads (21st vs 28th Aug) a favored trade.
Sector strength is visible in Autos (GST relief-driven), Realty, Metals, Smallcaps, and Midcaps, while CPSE stocks lag. IT is showing early signs of a turnaround. In commodities, crude remains weak, gold bearish, silver neutral, and natural gas stable. Bitcoin trades steady near $115,000.
Today’s trade view:
- Use dips near 24,800–24,750 to go long.
- Monthly expiry target stands at 25,500.
- Avoid naked option shorts at low vols; look at calendar trades for safer setups.
Key event triggers include FOMC Minutes tonight and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shift volatility expectations.
Stay tuned, trade safe, and let’s decode the setup before the chaos begins.
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By Tanmay KurtkotiWelcome to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.
It’s Wednesday, 20th August, and markets are holding steady near the 25,000 mark despite weakness in global equities. Asian indices are sharply lower (Nikkei -1.6%, Taiwan -1.8%, Kospi -1.85%), while US markets saw a tech-led selloff with Nasdaq dropping 1.5%. Brent crude remains under $66, gold continues to slip, and USDINR has cooled off after rejecting 87.50 resistance.
Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold ₹634 crore while DIIs bought ₹2,261 crore, keeping the monthly trend intact: FIIs net sellers (₹24,200 cr) and DIIs strong buyers (₹62,160 cr).
On the positioning front, clients have trimmed longs to ~3.96 lakh shares, while pros have cut shorts sharply to ~65k. With both sides reducing extremes, the market positioning looks balanced. The implied range from the 25k straddle is 24,800–25,200, keeping 25k as the mean reference. Volatility remains subdued at 9.46, making calendar spreads (21st vs 28th Aug) a favored trade.
Sector strength is visible in Autos (GST relief-driven), Realty, Metals, Smallcaps, and Midcaps, while CPSE stocks lag. IT is showing early signs of a turnaround. In commodities, crude remains weak, gold bearish, silver neutral, and natural gas stable. Bitcoin trades steady near $115,000.
Today’s trade view:
- Use dips near 24,800–24,750 to go long.
- Monthly expiry target stands at 25,500.
- Avoid naked option shorts at low vols; look at calendar trades for safer setups.
Key event triggers include FOMC Minutes tonight and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shift volatility expectations.
Stay tuned, trade safe, and let’s decode the setup before the chaos begins.